Big move higher coming for silver by: Patrick Heller

OPA

Another bullion dealer with a poor track record in predictions and a boatload of proven wrong conspiracy theories over the years. Will this broken clock be on the mark with his latest prediction? Only time will tell.

Numismaster article

topstuf

IF silver (ugh) ....EVER.... passes $25 again, I will sell sell sell.

Several thousand ounces that are still way in the profit money but I am just TIRED of it.

I .... should..... know better. Fell for my own hype and retained too much silver from the shop.
The gold I'm not concerned with.
I'd even like to swap my silver for gold.


Gold is the money metal. Silver is the "cut your heart out" metal.

And HAS been since the 1980 crash.

jmski52

If you have a profit position, why would you sell and generate tax liability unless you need the cash? If you want gold instead, just accumulate gold (or some other asset) instead of silver.

Maybe when you sell some silver, you can liquidate something else in which you have a loss position, in order to balance out the tax effect. Don't give the government any free money, make them print their own.

rawteam1

<< <i>Another bullion dealer with a poor track record in predictions and a boatload of proven wrong conspiracy theories over the years. Will this broken clock be on the mark with his latest prediction? Only time will tell.

Numismaster article >>


Another comex guru, sell it all... I base on soybean price...

Amigo

Several thousand ounces that are still way in the profit money but I am just TIRED of it.

+1 LOL, that's about how I feel. The paper creators are never gonna let the metal hit values based on physical stock.

I'm about ready to commission me a solid silver coffin. I figure we'll both be dead, so why not just be buried together.

derryb

<< <i>IF silver (ugh) ....EVER.... passes $25 again, I will sell sell sell. >>


Looking forward to your "if silver ever drops below $25 again, I will buy buy buy."



<< <i>Gold is the money metal. Silver is the "cut your heart out" metal. >>


Silver will once again outperform gold. Hold your several thousand ounces, you will be glad you did.

cohodk

The paper creators are never gonna let the metal hit values based on physical stock.

Be careful what you wish for...that value may just be much lower than present. Just take a look at the most recent production numbers from some of the miners.



First Majestic Silver: New record quarterly production; maintain Mkt Perform -- Cowen (10.41 -0.53) : Cowen notes, Silver equivalent production in 2Q14 beat the record set last quarter, due to ongoing improvements at each of the mines

Hecla Mining announces Q2 silver production increased 14% and gold production increased 96% over Q2 2013 (3.46 )

Allied Nevada announces preliminary q2 production and sales; on track to meet annual guidance; gold production and sales were 51% and 69% higher in the first half of 2014 when compared with the same period in 2013

Avino Silver & Gold announces Q2 production including substantial y/y production increases; Silver production increased 27% to 223,183 oz; Gold production increased 47% to 1,157 oz; Silver equivalent production increased 32% to 295,531 oz


Coeur d'Alene Mines reports Q2 production of 4.5 mln ounces of silver and 61,025 ounces of gold (8.61 -0.18) : Co announced preliminary second quarter production of 4.5 million ounces of silver and 61,025 ounces of gold, or 8.1 million silver equivalent ounces, an increase of 7% compared to the first quarte

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Platinum/Active/FullTextSearch/FullTextSearch.aspx#ixzz37ZSC6hYX




There are many more reports I could cite, but the bottom line is that even with lower prices the miners continue to increase production. Retail investor demand can easily be satisfied. Thank the paper traders for keeping silver from dropping further.

cladking

The question has always been demand... ...not supply.

Demand isn't determined by common sense, math, logic, or science. It is determined by inertia because
the status quo remains in effect until it isn't any longer.

The world jumped the shark and is nearing the breaking point. If this breaking proceeds smoothly enough
silver will triumph. If not then you need a knife and a magnetized needle. ...Run for the hills.

derryb

Gold and silver differ greatly when it comes to demand. Silver is an industrial and medical metal and is consumed. Silver demand is more than just "wealth protection" and "lovely jewelry." At a high enough price demand for gold will always subside. Silver on the other hand is a necessary ingredient in many manufactured items and will be purchased for the manufacturing process regardless of price. High silver prices will just be passed on in the fabricated products like any other manufactured good.



<< <i>Thank the paper traders for keeping silver from dropping further. >>


Thank industrial and medical consumption/demand for keeping the paper traders from dropping the price further.

tneig

I remember all the industrially use hype on silver when it was above $30+. But I wondered then if there was an increase in its use in industry and electronics, and then it tanked down to $18. So while being used it went down or maybe back to a more reasonable level. I'm not so sure I see an increase in the volume being used as the world already produces' a billion pieces of electronic equipment and jewelry a day now. The current demand from a year and half ago is likely about what it is now.

I wonder how much the industry was part of the reason it dropped from $35 to $18?

So I just don't know about in my lifetime, however I'm still holding my wheelbarrow full of it. But I do like the idea that industry will still have to pay no matter if the price goes up or not.



<< <i>Gold and silver differ greatly when it comes to demand. Silver is an industrial and medical metal and is consumed. Silver demand is more than just "wealth protection" and "lovely jewelry." At a high enough price demand for gold will always subside. Silver on the other hand is a necessary ingredient in many manufactured items and will be purchased for the manufacturing process regardless of price. High silver prices will just be passed on in the fabricated products like any other manufactured good.



<< <i>Thank the paper traders for keeping silver from dropping further. >>


Thank industrial and medical consumption/demand for keeping the paper traders from dropping the price further. >>

roadrunner

<< <i> The paper creators are never gonna let the metal hit values based on physical stock.

Be careful what you wish for...that value may just be much lower than present. Just take a look at the most recent production numbers from some of the miners.


First Majestic Silver: New record quarterly production; maintain Mkt Perform -- Cowen (10.41 -0.53) : Cowen notes, Silver equivalent production in 2Q14 beat the record set last quarter, due to ongoing improvements at each of the mines

Hecla Mining announces Q2 silver production increased 14% and gold production increased 96% over Q2 2013 (3.46 )

Allied Nevada announces preliminary q2 production and sales; on track to meet annual guidance; gold production and sales were 51% and 69% higher in the first half of 2014 when compared with the same period in 2013

Avino Silver & Gold announces Q2 production including substantial y/y production increases; Silver production increased 27% to 223,183 oz; Gold production increased 47% to 1,157 oz; Silver equivalent production increased 32% to 295,531 oz

Coeur d'Alene Mines reports Q2 production of 4.5 mln ounces of silver and 61,025 ounces of gold (8.61 -0.18) : Co announced preliminary second quarter production of 4.5 million ounces of silver and 61,025 ounces of gold, or 8.1 million silver equivalent ounces, an increase of 7% compared to the first quarte

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Platinum/Active/FullTextSearch/FullTextSearch.aspx#ixzz37ZSC6hYX

There are many more reports I could cite, but the bottom line is that even with lower prices the miners continue to increase production. Retail investor demand can easily be satisfied. Thank the paper traders for keeping silver from dropping further. >>




None of those silver miners except CDE make the top 10. Only Hecla ($1.15 BILL) has a market cap > $1 BILL. I'm less interested in what some selected juniors are doing. It's also logical that the best run juniors can show considerable growth. That's not easy for the biggest players (BHP Billiton, Fresnillo, KGHM, GG, Polymetal, PAAS, BVN, etc.). If these guys start pumping out significant increases in silver then that's significant. In 2012 the 10 top silver producers accounted for 271 MILL oz, or about 1/3 of world production. Avino's 1 MILL silver oz per year is a drop in the bucket. While some juniors are showing record production there are many others who cut back on unprofitable mines in 2013 to help reduce costs and weather the storm. It makes sense they might have a better 2014. Most of these guy's "all-in" production costs are near or above the price of silver. Some of them lost money in previous quarters. Production isn't going to be flying until silver gets back above $30/oz. Many of the juniors are strapped for cash and aren't far from closing their doors if the silver price doesn't start doing something soon. Would not be surprised to see 80% of the smallest silver miners just disappear.

2012 top 10 silver producers

In checking the 2013 silver supply and demand stats there was a -103 MILL oz physical shortfall. Mine production in 2013 was 9% above the levels of the past 3 years. Then again, total silver supply was down 9%. Demand however was at the highest levels of the past 9 years (up 5% over the past 4 yrs). One has to factor in the supply of scrap silver and hedging to get the best picture of supply. Scrap has been falling off the past few years and hedging has increased. If retail demand picks up sharply the mines won't be able to cover that. It will once again come down to scrap supply to make up the difference. Scrap supplies are down 25% over the past several years. The biggest one year jump in silver mine production in the past 10 yrs was +38 MILL oz. That's about 4% of world production. Certainly mines couldn't cover an increase beyond that amount. Their production is fairly inelastic and takes years to ramp up. If there's a recession down the road that slows down base metal production, that will also slow down silver production. Interesting that the last time there was a >-100 MILL oz physical deficit was in 2008 (-170 MILL oz).

Silver stats

Before getting all excited about CDE's silver production advances this past quarter, let's note that it's less than 2Q 2013 and nearly 10% under 2Q 2012. They are basically flat. There are very few good stories over the past year when it comes to production reports and making money. I think AEM had a great gold report last quarter...but that was one of the exceptions. Most of the senior gold production is flat to down. Why would silver be taking off on its own? With so many silver miners bleeding cash they really don't have the money to improve production. They have to ensure they have the cash to survive another few years if necessary.

CDE stats

cohodk

as I mentioned, there are plenty more companies I could have illustrated.. Here is another..

Goldcorp beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Reconfirms 2014 Guidance (24.72 ) : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.26 per share, $0.12 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.14; revenues rose 0.7% year/year to $1.23 bln vs the $0.97 bln consensus.
Gold sales in the first quarter were 684,000 ounces on production of 679,900 ounces. This compares to sales of 595,100 ounces on production of 614,600 ounces in the first quarter of 2013. Silver production totaled 9.6 million ounces compared to silver production of 5.6 million ounces in the prior year's first quarter.


Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Platinum/Active/TickerSearch/QuickSearch.aspx#ixzz37qloSYx7

Thats an extra 4 million oz over same period last year.

In 2014 companies will pull much more silver from the ground than in 2013, and this with "depressed" prices.




I remember all the industrially use hype on silver when it was above $30+

Thats exactly what it was. The higher the price goes, the more elaborate the story that must be spun to push prices higher.

cladking

<< <i>

Thats exactly what it was. The higher the price goes, the more elaborate the story that must be spun to push prices higher. >>



The total amount of silver available is ample at this time. The price is the result of
the fact that even though there's more silver than needed the total amount of silver
in the world is quite small. If some new technological process required and substantial
amount then the silver simply wouldn't exist. This is a major consideration when one new
high tech usage after another is being found and many more can be projected.

Someday there probably will be a massive shortfall in silver and this can occur in two ways;
increasing demand can stress available the tiny amount in existence and new demand can
eliminate it altogether and virtually overnight.

I've always said silver is a terrible short term investment because its price is at the whim of
investors and traders but it is a safe bet in the long term because man is so ingenious.

Silver will break your heart in the short term but the long terms always comes eventually.


Every day that goes by takes us ever closer to "eventually".

OPA

<< <i>Every day that goes by takes us ever closer to "eventually". >>



How true...and it may even occur to some in their lifetimes.

cohodk

If some new technological process required and substantial
amount then the silver simply wouldn't exist

Or some new technology utilizes another even more common metal thus rendering silver useless in industrial application.

OPA

<< <i> If some new technological process required and substantial
amount then the silver simply wouldn't exist

Or some new technology utilizes another even more common metal thus rendering silver useless in industrial application. >>



Graphene

derryb

silver is the best known conductor of electricity and when the best is needed it will be silver. Here are the top conductors with their electrical resistance in ohms:
- Silver - 0.016
- Copper - 0.0175
- Gold - 0.022
- Aluminium 0.0278

To get an idea of the many industrial and medical uses of silver visit The Silver Institute Website

cohodk

The horse once was the best form of transportation.

I hope silver goes to $100, then we can all see that the world didnt end.

TwoSides2aCoin

When I was a kid in the sixties, silver was a dollar. And a dollar was worth a dollar. Then Kennedy got shot and it went up to about five dollars. Ten years later Nixon found that he could get fifteen for dollars in mint state. So the GSA put them in holders and it went to $15. The Hunts got into it and 7 years later it was near $50. Then the government got involved again and it went to $5 in the '80s. It stayed there or about there for the next 25 years or so, as it graduated to $15 again (since '73) , in 2007. Then it took a wild ride to about $50 in 2011. From there it dove back down to sub $20 and it's just recently climbed above that mark.


A big move higher ? How much is higher ? $.10 ? $. 30 ? a dollar ?