What kind of Upswing do we need to Buy?

tneig

Any change in the support levels for buying? Because I don't have the know-how to determine this.
(plus I keep checking for the pre - predictions as the post prediction 'i told you so' don't count, eh)

Julio

I'm still in lazy accumulation. Take care. jws

OnlyGoldIsMoney

I am adding both gold and silver at present prices as quickly as cash flow will allow.

derryb

Rather than look at gold support I focus on lack of dollar support.

jmski52

You only buy when there's going to be a upswing, or think that there's going to be an upswing?

This implies that you sell when the market's going down or you think that it will be going down.

Whether it works for you or not is one thing, but I can assure you that it increases your portfolio's volatility.

With a more volatile portfolio, you can't afford to be wrong very often.

tneig

No implies of selling. I'm holding, w occasional small buys. Some selling only for silver to gold conversions "when good deals present."

I've seen several 'should have' post-event type postings before. So, just seeking some of the wonderful "pre-hints" and logic about when things will climb or drop more.
If I can discern a likely long term climb coming, I'd like to buy beforehand of course, but right now in "Hold but ready."





<< <i>You only buy when there's going to be a upswing, or think that there's going to be an upswing?

This implies that you sell when the market's going down or you think that it will be going down.

Whether it works for you or not is one thing, but I can assure you that it increases your portfolio's volatility.

With a more volatile portfolio, you can't afford to be wrong very often. >>

jmski52

The dollar is under selling pressure from either Russia, China or both. This is being "disguised" by an unknown entity who is buying Treasuries in Belgium. The order of magnitude is great enough that it's hard not to think that it's the Fed who is doing the buying. All of this is off-the-record, so there is simply no good way to analyze the data.

None of the major players is talking. They never do. We only know that the US debt continues to grow at a rate that has to be considered out of control, which means that a devaluation is coming. Who knows when? The US economy is huge, so it can sustain a lot of hits before a major event happens, but when and if a tipping point is reached, the markets will equilibrate faster than most people can react.

Poof! It will be gone, or at least pro-rated. Governments and the Fed get to do whatever they want, with no accountability. We've already seen how it works since 2008 - over and over. FDR devalued the dollar against gold by 40% overnight. Gold has been re-constituted by the IMF as a Tier I Asset, so gold will eventually be part of the mix. Banking regs have been modified so as to leave depositors at risk in the event of bank insolvency. All we're really waiting for is the overnight decision that will be made in response to a "crisis".

Pick your favorite crisis. There are more than a few to choose from. Expect to be blindsided.

OPA

Ignore the extremist views for the pro or cons of investing in PM's, along with those that have been preaching conspiracy theories based on their own interpretations and not established facts. Check their track records since 2011 and do your own research. I agree, now may be a good time to buy, but I've decided to accumulate cash and purchase when there is an apparent turn around...I'm tired of trying to catch a falling knife. Good luck.

jmski52

Check their track records since 2011 and do your own research.

Pay no attention from 1998 to 2011 though, and do you own research.

Opa, if you're going to characterize someone as having extremist views, put forward a couple of your own facts and interpretations to actually rebut what's been said.

Success in the stock market because of QE is no big success in market analysis.

(Well, after thinking about it - maybe it is, when you consider that it took guts to believe what the Fed and BLS is telling everyone.)

jmski52

This probably qualifies as a crisis.

Here's your crisis.

Baley

<< <i>Check their track records since 2011 and do your own research.

Pay no attention from 1998 to 2011 though, and do you own research.

Opa, if you're going to characterize someone as having extremist views, put forward a couple of your own facts and interpretations to actually rebut what's been said.

Success in the stock market because of QE is no big success in market analysis.

(Well, after thinking about it - maybe it is, when you consider that it took guts to believe what the Fed and BLS is telling everyone.) >>



hit a nerve, huh.

OPA probably remembers all the self-congratulatory messages posted in 2011, and the tone taken against anyone suggesting caution....

Justacommeman

I've never regretted buying gold at any level……………..MJ

DrBuster

<< <i>I've never regretted buying gold at any level……………..MJ >>



Ditto, even my pricey underwater silver.

Timbuk3

I'm still cautiously buying gold when I come
across a good deal !!!

RedTiger

Technical traders might buy at support (near the low), or on upside momentum. Among the simplest systems are moving average cross overs. The 50 day simple moving average and 200 day are popular. Bigcharts or similar free charting sites can plot moving averages. Many will plot SLV or /SI (futures) and then adjust the price to whatever physical prices a person might encounter. A bit more complicated is a moving average crossover (golden cross) when the 50 day crosses above the 200 day.

Futures traders often look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. These sometimes give an indication of future pricing. Sentiment can be a powerful indicator. If one or more of this forum's long time permabulls finally throws in the towel that would tend to be a buy signal (eg: "I've had it, I am tired of watching silver going down virtually every month, I am dumping all my silver today, don't care what the price is, just want out). If newbies are coming in bragging about playing the inverse silver etfs (profit when silver goes down), that would be another buy signal. Works the same on the other side.

As always, nothing is fool proof. No indicator is 100%. If any indicator works well and gets publicized, it tends to work less well as more people use it. It is the nature of the markets.

cladking

Silver might be turning into a screaming buy again just as it was in 2002.

I have the sense that money is "all in" in the stock market now and the only way stocks can
advance is if American business rediscovers wealth creation. They've been chewing off the carcass
of one thing or another and destroying wealth to make money for so long that it might take a while
for the idea of creating things and creating value to ever take root again. Don't get me wrong here
there is almost unlimited potential to increase the size of the economy to account for a Dow in the
range of 100,000 and if this happens gold will stagnate. At best it might double as more money chases
fewer investments.

My guess is they prefer destruction since it's easier than that four letter word (WORK) and doesn't re-
quire anyone to be responsible. Efficiency is likely to increase only enough to keep the market afloat.
But efficiency increases should translate to silver consumption and treading water to inflation. The two
combined could mean steadily rising silver prices for some time. Rising gold prices will only reinforce this
move.

I'm looking for one more move lower to test $18 (it might not be muuch of a test) and then a small
spike followed by slowly rising prices into the foreseeable future. Of course it may do this violently so
expect some noise in the pricing.

cladking

After the middle of next year there may "never" again be prices under $24 adjusted for inflation.

jmski52

Please understand that us conspiratorial extremists have delicate feelings and we must self congratulate on a regular basis or we get crazy.

lcoopie

I think it will be quite a bit higher in 5 years.