Will silver make $20 this time before headig,,,,,
Julio
Posts: 2,501 ✭
back to $18.00? My gut isn't telling me a thing, I'm lost. Take care. jws
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MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is that called hedging, because if it is, well played.
My gut tell me we will play the 18-20 boogey for awhile, as always, I reserve the right to change my mind. Take care. jws
The buying and selling? Is it the overall cumulative activity, or big transactions?
Where do the points on the charts come from?
<< <i>So what changes the price moment to moment?
The buying and selling? Is it the overall cumulative activity, or big transactions?
Where do the points on the charts come from? >>
Big transactions on the futures paper market. As with most asset markets there is a bid/ask (buy/sell) price at any given moment. Strength of buyers vs. strength of sellers determines direction. Big transactions in either direction show up as big price swings. Not any different than buying and selling APPLE except with metal futures imaginary product is being traded. As proven, imaginary product creates imaginary value of real product.
Then there is the London "fix" price. . .
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> My gut isn't telling me a thing, I'm lost. Take care. jws >>
Too bad because I trust your guts!!
I say we will see $20.50 shortly and the Ag will go down below $18.
Interesting, I have absolutely no reason to doubt you prophecy. Like I said, I'm clueless, go figure. My question to you; how low below $18.00, do you surmise it may go. I'm in lazy accumulation mode, but it would be nice to add some at the bottom. Take care. jws
<< <i>
<< <i> My gut isn't telling me a thing, I'm lost. Take care. jws >>
Too bad because I trust your guts!!
I say we will see $20.50 shortly and the Ag will go down below $18. >>
My guess is the same: Around $20.50 for a short term top and then down to $17.50 for the 2014 bottom.
Next question, asked again; when will it break $25.00? Take care. jws
so I will predict $50 by 2024
<< <i>"I say we will see $20.50 shortly and the Ag will go down below $18". nibanny.
Interesting, I have absolutely no reason to doubt you prophecy. Like I said, I'm clueless, go figure. My question to you; how low below $18.00, do you surmise it may go. I'm in lazy accumulation mode, but it would be nice to add some at the bottom. Take care. jws >>
As you said, it's a prophecy not based on any fact. I just see the chart, consider how Ag acted before and feel that, if the general situation stays as it is now, silver is going further down to $17-18.
Few weeks ago I was thinking to see it going to $15. I don't think so anymore. Don't ask me why.
Disclaimer: I am often wrong...
MJ feels Silver is overpriced, he likes Gold.
derryb, doesn't think Silver will make it to $20 before it retreats downward.
BaJJerFan, Hmmm it's closer to $20 than $18.
Tneig is trying to figure out what moves the market. Please let me know if you get the formula right.
nibanny, $20.50 shortly then back to $17-$18.
VanHalen, $20.50 then below $18.
Icoopie, Well I have been wondering when it would attack $50 again. Icoopie assures me in 2024. I will plan accordingly.
Pretty good range here, thanks for the info. Okay, how about you lurkers, I'd love to hear your predictions, join the fray. As others have done you can always reserve the right to change your mind, or, just be flat out wrong. Who knows, Bailey may reincarnate this thread in the future to give someone bragging rights; or, show us all how wrong we were. Take care. jws
Honestly not being a smart arse, but does it matter? Here's why looking at it from a buying perspective. Most dealers/people are going to charge you the same % of premium whether Spot be $18 or $20.
If/when it falls to $15 the premium will be higher.
If/when it rises to $25 the premium will be slightly lower.
Because it has been locked into this range for the period of time it has been, $18 to $20 doesn't matter. It will change when Spot gets significantly out of the range it's been stuck in.
This is all from my experience and just because it happened that way one time doesn't mean it will follow the same course if/when there is a next time. All jmho.
My prediction is no one knows.
Many here continue to make very wrong predictions time and time again….Ricko knows, a great guy but basically always wrong as he has admitted…so why even bother other than to pass the time of day I guess.
JMHO. I appreciate and do enjoy all the knowledge shared here.
Other than for the "predictions" or "gut feelings" about the course of PM prices that is.
If/when it falls to $15 the premium will be higher.
If/when it rises to $25 the premium will be slightly lower.
Because it has been locked into this range for the period of time it has been, $18 to $20 doesn't matter. It will change when Spot gets significantly out of the range it's been stuck in.
This is all from my experience and just because it happened that way one time doesn't mean it will follow the same course if/when there is a next time. All jmho." piecesofme.
Pieces, "but does it matter", I get your drift and it's true, to a point. You will probably never convince me that price doesn't matter, and I don't think that was your point. Still interesting post, food for thought, so to speak. Premiums anybody? Do you like them; do they serve any real purpose? Don't forget your prediction, if you have not yet prognosticated. Take care. jws
<< <i>"Honestly not being a smart arse, but does it matter? Here's why looking at it from a buying perspective. Most dealers/people are going to charge you the same % of premium whether Spot be $18 or $20.
If/when it falls to $15 the premium will be higher.
If/when it rises to $25 the premium will be slightly lower.
Because it has been locked into this range for the period of time it has been, $18 to $20 doesn't matter. It will change when Spot gets significantly out of the range it's been stuck in.
This is all from my experience and just because it happened that way one time doesn't mean it will follow the same course if/when there is a next time. All jmho." piecesofme.
Pieces, "but does it matter", I get your drift and it's true, to a point. You will probably never convince me that price doesn't matter, and I don't think that was your point. Still interesting post, food for thought, so to speak. Premiums anybody? Do you like them; do they serve any real purpose? Don't forget your prediction, if you have not yet prognosticated. Take care. jws >>
Do most of the big bullion houses add a percentage premium of spot or some set amount over spot? I notice JM usually is around $2.70 or so over spot, but don't remember if that still holds as spot price decreases.
Premiums are a terrible investment if spot price of your metal goes up.
<< <i>Do most of the big bullion houses add a percentage premium of spot or some set amount over spot? I notice JM usually is around $2.70 or so over spot, but don't remember if that still holds as spot price decreases. >>
Using ASEs as an example, the very limited number of bullion buyers authorized to purchase from the US Mint are charged an initial premium (markup) over spot to help defray fabrication and labor costs. As the bullion coinns make its way through the market via various resellers, each reseller adds markup so they can make profit. The premium you and I pay will be very dependent on how many resellers are involved by the time the bullion reaches our hands.
Price (including premium) between the resellers is competitive and occasionly a big dealer will sell at a loss just to move the bullion to help cover the cost of incoming bullion. This is why you often see great prices.
Historically premiums have slowly inched upward (starting at the US Mint) even as spot prices decline. This is due to increasing physical demand and also due to dealers trying to cut their losses on inventory purchased at a higher price than what they are currently able to sell it for. Unlike the stacker, dealers have to constantly move inventory. Because premiums historically rise and not fall, premiums paid (if in line with the market) are a good investment because they are normally recovered at time of resale.
The only question a buyer need ask himself about price (spot plus premium) at time of purchase is "is it the lowest I can currently find for this particular physical product." Think of premiums as an additional cost for holding physical metal vs. paper promises. Paper promises are what set the spot price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Do most of the big bullion houses add a percentage premium of spot or some set amount over spot? I notice JM usually is around $2.70 or so over spot, but don't remember if that still holds as spot price decreases. >>
Using ASEs as an example, the very limited number of bullion buyers authorized to purchase from the US Mint are charged an initial premium (markup) over spot to help defray fabrication and labor costs. As the bullion coinns make its way through the market via various resellers, each reseller adds markup so they can make profit. The premium you and I pay will be very dependent on how many resellers are involved by the time the bullion reaches our hands.
Price (including premium) between the resellers is competitive and occasionly a big dealer will sell at a loss just to move the bullion to help cover the cost of incoming bullion. This is why you often see great prices.
Historically premiums have slowly inched upward (starting at the US Mint) even as spot prices decline. This is due to increasing physical demand and also due to dealers trying to cut their losses on inventory purchased at a higher price than what they are currently able to sell it for. Unlike the stacker, dealers have to constantly move inventory. Because premiums historically rise and not fall, premiums paid (if in line with the market) are a good investment because they are normally recovered at time of resale.
The only question a buyer need ask himself about price (spot plus premium) at time of purchase is "is it the lowest I can currently find for this particular physical product." Think of premiums as an additional cost for holding physical metal vs. paper promises. Paper promises are what set the spot price. >>
Thanks for the response. There is also a bit of a premium difference for qty as well as what price they use for spot. The bulliondirect site is usually 5-10 cents varied from JMBullion [for spot price] and most vary from each other. What matters in the end is the numbers you end up writing on the check.
<< <i>So in layman's terms and considering premiums, the better buy. 10oz Geiger or equivalent in Silver eagles? Take care. jws >>
The higher premium in dealers terms stays with the Eagle. The Eagle has landed. A 'lower price" may be attractive for the stacker. When it's time to sell, a dealer will likely be at 98% of spot or thereabouts to buy the bar. Whereas, he will compete and pay over, if he needs those eagles. Because they hold the "guarantee" and protections from the Secret Service, the United States Treasury and the office of the president of the United States. It's what guarantees their checks don't bounce.
Sage words. Take care. jws