Remember the thread that posted a chart of typical bubble patterns?

cohodk

Interesting how psychology seems to trump fundamentals and the like.





Nasdaq


Silver



Prices to have a tendency to trend higher again....over time. I would say silver has pretty good support at 18-19, then 15 then 10. I dont think 10 is likely.

VanHalen

We might be back in the "Mania Phase" by next year!

hchcoin

Nice!

derryb

"sell Mortimer, sell"

cohodk

<< <i>"sell Mortimer, sell" >>



About 3 years late.






<< <i>We might be back in the "Mania Phase" by next year! >>



Bubbles never re-inflate quickly, and usually a decade or more (a generation) passes before previous highs are eclipsed. But a rally in silver back to 35 is still a 70% return from here. That aint too shabby, unless you are a member of the "public" participants, in which case you get your money back.

Julio

Dang, a flashback to the good old days; I miss them. Take care. jws

OPA

<< <i>We might be back in the "Mania Phase" by next year! >>



I don't see that happening. It appears we are still stuck in the Despair stage.

Baley

Silver appears to be enjoying an extended capitulation, likely because some faithful are still in the new paradigm and denial stages and keep on stackin, keeping us from despair at 15 or lower

yep, pretty easy to see short term support at 18 and resistance at 22. Longer term support and resistance levels might be like 13 and 26.

Looking at that chart, it really didn't spend much time above 40, did it? I'll bet if silver hit 30 again there would be massive selling.

bronco2078

<< <i>Silver appears to be enjoying an extended capitulation, likely because some faithful are still in the new paradigm and denial stages and keep on stackin, keeping us from despair at 15 or lower

yep, pretty easy to see short term support at 18 and resistance at 22. Longer term support and resistance levels might be like 13 and 26.

Looking at that chart, it really didn't spend much time above 40, did it? I'll bet if silver hit 30 again there would be massive selling. >>





I bet there would be massive buying too and then a lot of grumbling

jmski52

I sold half a bag of 90% around $35, but I wouldn't be inclined to sell any more at that price. Call it denial. I call it a savings plan.

Julio

" I call it a savings plan".jmski52 We must bank at the same place. I'm also on the same page with Bailey, 18-22, rinse and repeat. I've seen two runs, {Hunt inspired} and the last one. Anyone got any thoughts on what caused the last one? I'm going with financial panic. Take care. jws

cohodk

I added another chart to the op. Interesting, eh? Chart below with inserted comments from Jim Willie.

cohodk

Here is another chart that "bubbled". Anyone think prices are going back to the highs?

Baley

depends on what that last chart is of, something like blackberry that got it's clock cleaned may never, but something like apple that had a rebirth can go up then down then way back up

look at 2006 vs 2009, same general shape but different magnitude, and then subsequent, they performed very differently later because of sales growth and market leadership

chart

cohodk

Most people on this board would probably consider the chart above to be just like Blackberry. It is not an individual stock chart.

Baley

Hmmm, index, sector, or some sort of ratio? I really cannot tell anything at all about the future of a chart from just the chart all by it's lonesome, never have been able to.
I have to take the context into account to make sense of it. Some are bubbles, but some look like bubbles but end up being an industry being born, for example, and going through a couple of gyrations.

miklia

if it's a sector (or country) with a future, I'd buy that to ride to 20.

cohodk

<< <i>if it's a sector (or country) with a future, I'd buy that to ride to 20. >>



Does the USA have a future? The chart is the DOW priced in ounces of gold.

Baley

<< <i>

<< <i>if it's a sector (or country) with a future, I'd buy that to ride to 20. >>



Does the USA have a future? The chart is the DOW priced in ounces of gold. >>



which captures a very nice example of a secular waveform in offsetting asset classes, a couple of bubbles and crashes illustrate a very interesting phenomenon.

draw a best fit line, and trade around that in opportunistic swings?

miklia

a long gold/short DOW play seems entirely reasonable at these levels, although i'd do Ag instead..

cohodk

<< <i>a long gold/short DOW play seems entirely reasonable at these levels, although i'd do Ag instead.. >>



You seem to have contradicted yourself, or do you feel the USA do not have a future? It the chart works its way back to 20 as you thought it might, then that means stocks will outperform gold.

miklia

hahaha, I need to go back to Chart Reading 101 class, obviously, and stand corrected.