<< <i>Taking a different angle, I have no doubt we are riding a wave at the moment, but in terms of supply, just think back on the last five years of group breaks. They went from common blast fests, to less common, semi blast/semi hoard, to altogether rare.
To me the biggest reason is lack of product to rip. We just aren't even seeing many boxes at any price last long enough to coordinate a rip. It will be interesting to see what they are able to bring to and buy at the national this year... >>
Another good point--in years past, we'd see boxes go up for sale on the bbce site and Mark would have st least a day or two to coordinate the rip with Steve without someone swooping in and buying the boxes at full price within hours of being listed on the site. The buying pool is not only more aggressive now, but larger, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Another factor that has not been discussed on the message board that is happening right now as we speak. There are consortiums which are buying sports cards/memorabilia/unopened material as a part of their portfolio. This is one major reason why we are seeing a large increase on highend rookie cards/Mantle rookies in all grades and other HOFer from the 1950's. Look at the 1963 Topps football box in the REA as the action on that box is pretty crazy. I am not going to be shocked if that hits $42K.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
For some reason it does seem like discussions of unopened always wind up focusing on prices and the market and future prices. Just my opinion, but I'd much rather hear about treasured pieces in collections, how collectors came upon those triumphant finds, what makes one box or pack rarer or more special to a collection, and things like that. End of the day, no one knows where prices will go on anything. Does anyone else notice this?
<< <i>For some reason it does seem like discussions of unopened always wind up focusing on prices and the market and future prices. Just my opinion, but I'd much rather hear about treasured pieces in collections, how collectors came upon those triumphant finds, what makes one box or pack rarer or more special to a collection, and things like that. End of the day, no one knows where prices will go on anything. Does anyone else notice this? >>
You have a good point, Matty, in that the unopened collectors I know appreciate the item or pack more than its ROI. But it is virtually impossible NOT to mention price considering how rapidly prices have risen in value over the past two years with new records seemingly being set every other week.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I read all the unopened posts since that makes up the majority of my sportscard collection and is what turned me into a collector for the first time since I was a little kid. There are far more posts where people show off their collections or latest pick-ups (my favorites) without any price commentary, but they don't tend to get as much traction as the "these prices are crazy" and "is unopened drying up" types of threads.
I try to avoid predicting where prices will go because I don't want to come off like a stock pumper and, frankly, I have no clue. There's a lack of market transparency and too few data points for me to make an educated guess, but I am bullish on the sports card and memorabilia markets generally for quality items with relative scarcity.
I have an interest in buying unopened material guys. Sorry if I mislead anyone here on the boards by my posts. CrissCriss you need to buy a new kitchen table with the money that you got from your "unopened material". Just to be clear on this so no one misunderstands my comments CrissCriss. That $35 kitchen table needs replacing.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
Shane, you crack me up. I hope we meet up in person soon one day.
CrissCriss, if you look at the people who share their bullish opinions on unopened, you will see that they tend to purchase far more than they sell. They are actually working against their self-interests in depressing current prices. If you are in accumulation mode and want to make as much money as possible, you would talk down unopened as much as possible until you have everything you want. Then pump it up. One of the great things about this forum is the honesty of the long-time members. I have and continue to learn much from them (Grote, CPA Mike, 1954. Ron Burgundy, 70s Topps, etc.).
Grote - FYI - my iPad keeps trying to change your screen name to "Grotesque"! Don't take it personally if it ever squeaks through.
There are consortiums which are buying sports cards/memorabilia/unopened material as a part of their portfolio
Things always go well when groups of investors target non-mainstream collectables...
Does anyone think 100 boxes would be worth less than what market value is today? I for one believe the price would not be affected at all.
Since we already saw this exact scenario play out with 1975 minis I would wonder why the next time would be different. However we are not going to see 100 1974 boxes become available but we might see 100 1979 or 1980 boxes. 1980 baseball boxes are not particularly rare regardless of what people are paying for them now.
I believe we are approaching bubble like territory for unopened because so much of the price appreciation is driven by new entrants into unopened "collecting". I doubt these new entrants will stay for the long term. The collector vs ripper dynamic for pre-1980 unopened boxes has shifted to nearly 100% collector/investor. If you look at earlier unopened where it is nearly 100% collector you do not see these types of meteoric price rises. We are definitely watching the greater fool theory play out at the moment. If I hadn't ripped all the 70s unopened I purchased over the last 15-20 years I would definitely be a seller right now. That said this sort of irrational market can go on for a quite a while.
Twelve months ago on this board folks were justifying the rising unopened prices on 70s PSA 9/10 HOF RC price appreciation. At least that nonsensical argument has disappeared in the face of continued rising unopened prices.
<< <i> If I hadn't ripped all the 70s unopened I purchased over the last 15-20 years I would definitely be a seller right now. That said this sort of irrational market can go on for a quite a while. Robb >>
I think this is one of the major reasons the unopened prices are going up now, I also credit the economic recovery in large part to the rise too. As long as both of these two factors are in place I don't think we are in a bubble where prices are going to fall more than 20% or more but rather a rational market driven by normal macro economic forces. I think today's prices a year, two years and five years will all be higher than they are today.
Don't discount the fact that you haven't been able to earn a dime on your savings account for better than four years. Artificially low interest rates will hold until about three days after the next presidential election.
Despite the talk of the "taper", the Fed is still going to put in close to $600B, yes Billion, in liquidity into the economy this year. That buys a lot of BBCE boxes.
I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here.
<< <i>Despite the talk of the "taper", the Fed is still going to put in close to $600B, yes Billion, in liquidity into the economy this year. That buys a lot of BBCE boxes.
I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here. >>
Well said...it would be nice to see some stabilization though. It's as easy as supply and demand, and there are many that want to play at a high level. No chance unopened goes down, it'll just be interesting to see what high graded cards do in unison...I would think it would follow uptick and grow but at a smaller rate.
<< <i>Despite the talk of the "taper", the Fed is still going to put in close to $600B, yes Billion, in liquidity into the economy this year. That buys a lot of BBCE boxes.
I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here. >>
Well said...it would be nice to see some stabilization though. It's as easy as supply and demand, and there are many that want to play at a high level. No chance unopened goes down, it'll just be interesting to see what high graded cards do in unison...I would think it would follow uptick and grow but at a smaller rate. >>
Definitely not the case for mid to late 70s graded. It's in the toilet except for superstar cards and some low pop cards. Definitely nowhere near where it was 10-15 years ago. You can get most commons from 1974 on up in PSA 9 condition for under $10 each.
IMO unless there is a major economic upheaval I have to agree with other posters that I just can't see pre-1980 unopened prices falling. They may not continue on the steep upward incline that we have been experiencing for the pas few years, but they are not likely to be falling (unless a huge cache of legitimate product suddenly comes available in the market).
The real issue in today's unopened market is that the supply of legitimate product is being dwarfed by the demand. In these kinds of market conditions basic micro-economics tells us all we really need to know; Prices will trend upward until supply and demand are re-balanced. It's hard to see that happening quickly when there are some on the demand side who take the attitude that they will pay just about any price to get the few authentic items that are popping up. I made some very strong bids on many items over the past year that weren't even close to winners. Further, from what I was told after the fact the limits set by the people I lost out to were significantly higher than I could have ever imagined. An example is a box I bid on last year that had never sold for a 5-figure amount before. Not only did it cross the 5-figure threshold, but I have it from a source that I trust that the winning bidder had a limit bid more than 50% higher than the closing price (including the BP).
The real challenge now for the rest of us unopened collectors is to decide how far we are willing to go in order to secure items that we are interested in. This is not as much of an issue with individual packs, as it is with full boxes. Opportunities to add multiple pre-1980 boxes in a year are going to be sparse at best from this point forward. Therefore, those of us who collect full boxes are going to have to re-evaluate a bit, focus and prioritize in order to continue adding to our collections.
Definitely not the case for mid to late 70s graded. It's in the toilet except for superstar cards and some low pop cards. Definitely nowhere near where it was 10-15 years ago. You can get most commons from 1974 on up in PSA 9 condition for under $10 each. >>
I wouldn't classify mid-late 1970's graded commons or even non RC stars "high end" unless it is a tough PSA 9 or PSA 10. My comments don't apply to the entire hobby, only on the high-end. The modern hobby crashed in the early 1990's, the insert craze crashed late 1990's/early 2000's, heck even Griffey graded RCs crashed. I remember PSA 10 Upper Deck RCs go for over $1000. But the very high end of the hobby - top graded HOF RCs, unopened boxes. rare pre-war cards - have held strong through each of these cycles. I'm interested to see what happens to the 1981-1986 unopened market. The kids that collected those years are approaching their early 40's. 1983 Topps, 1984 Donruss, and 1985 Topps could be the next boxes to go on a run.
The 1983-1985 unopened is definitely going to be interesting. The big RCs in those years are Gwynn, Sandberg, Boggs, Clemens, Puckett and maybe Mattingly.
Some of these guys compare favorably to the RCs of 78-80 (Murray, Molitor/Trammel,Smith, Henderson), but Clemens tainted himself and Mattingly's injury definitely kept him from reaching his true potential. However, the driver has to be based on the fact that the volume of product produced was MUCH greater in the 83-85 timeframe.
Fundamentally it always seems to come back to the supply side. I just dont see 83-85 taking the same kind of climb that we've seen from the years prior to this. Too much supply exists.
I'll take the counterpoint to one aspect of the post above: while Mattingly's injury limited the potential stats he might have had, he is still beloved by a great many people in a huge market; his key RCs are extremely popular with collectors of that era, perhaps moreso than those of the likes of Sanberg, Smith, and Boggs. I was very actively collecting in that time and I can't recall Sandberg or Boggs RCs being anywhere near as hot, desired, or popular as Mattingly's-- especially the 84D. If I am looking to buy wax boxes to bust for nostalgia from my youth, the main nostalgic card from the 80s that I am hoping to pull is not a Sandberg RC or an 85T Puckett. It's the Mattingly 84D.
No argument about Donnie baseball. Even though he was a Yankee, I was a fan. He was special, and were it not for his injury he was definitely on track to make the HOF.
However, my point was indirectly about the players mentioned. The point was that in terms of unopened the values associated with high end player RCs from 83-85 does not come close to those of the 78-80 timeframe. Further, there is much MORE unopened remaining from the later timeframe.
So if there is more supply, and the value of the later RCs being less I just dont see 83-85 unopened as likey to take the same rapid elevator ride that we are seeing with the late 70s unopened.
<< <i>Fundamentally it always seems to come back to the supply side. I just dont see 83-85 taking the same kind of climb that we've seen from the years prior to this. Too much supply exists. >>
Agreed. Which is why it would be better to focus on some of the unopened wax from the late 1980s to early 1990s which are still relatively cheap, have cards of interest, and/or were produced in lower quantities than people have assumed (as indicated by the much fewer number of boxes available compared to others from the era of 1981 on up).
I can see the early 1980's boxes going up another 25-50% over the next few years. I don't think it will ever get to $1000/box like 1980 Topps, but I never thought a 1980 Topps Box would get there either. Boxes from the late 1980's-early 1990's may be held down for a while until the steroid guys get elected into the HOF.
<< <i>If it's "consortiums" buying, that absolutely won't end well. This stuff isn't stocks that can be sold off instantly. >>
I've learned through the years that those with deep pockets(of which I do not include myself) can sit on their investments, be it stocks etc. for years and ride out the up/down waves. That to me is the key element here. So if in fact a consortium buys this expensive wax, it's likely they would sit on it till a price increase then dole it out as to not flood the marketplace to continue a perceived scarcity image. And by witholding it for as long as possible they help to foster this image so much more. It is better for them not to dump a large bulk purchase of rare wax. IMHO.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Just a few more observations. As long as the rare wax market is supported by collectors at heart, the mkt. will never suffer. Even if prices were to drop 50% the collector in us will always rush in to snap it up. This in turn would resusitate the prices-as long as the demand is there. And for true collectors it always will be. Thats one thing about any hobby. As long as you are a collector first, you can never lose. And as far as 80's sealed wax goes, the mere fact it is already being discussed here,albeit in it's infancy, I think the migration has already begun. Especially if the 70's material has gotten out of reach for many collectors. It would only seem natural to migrate to a product that is within your price range that you feel is a low risk/gamble with a low buyin. This oppurtunity would really appeal to those that may have"missed the boat" on 70's material. Has the migration begun?
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
<< <i>Ok who is sitting on the 52's???? Fess up and let's see some pics! >>
I've got a nickel and a penny pack, but I only collect 1 per year.
>>
That is an awesome display and pack collection. WOW!!! >>
I may have complimented you before on this display, but once again AAA+++. As a suggestion I would suggest you making a poster of your collection and marketing it. Probably many on this forum would purchase it, it's that impressive.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Lots of great points in this thread. I will just say that as much as I think there are lots of top notch unopened collectors on this board, the board is not driving the unopened market. It is just a reflection of the market as a whole. As we all know and have seen lately, lots of collectors are re-entering the market now and have the cash on hand to buy.
"The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting: Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
I personally find it exciting that older baseball cards are moving up in value. All growing up as I collected cards you bought them with the dream that one day they would be valuable.
Well guess what. Some became very valuable.
This move higher in the unopened segment has been very fun to watch. To think that the packs that collectors busted just a few years ago have moved so dramatically above the average break even point is fascinating.
After reading so many posts about the topic it is clear that the sentiment has reached bullish levels never seen before. It seems time and time again that markets that reach these levels of optimism have harsh corrections. The supply and demand characteristics are different for most markets and time will tell how this plays out.
If you valued boxes of cards in a similar manner that stocks value corporate profits the yield to box ratio is the highest one has ever seen. Once valuations for anything move out of the normal expected range of outcomes they can go much further then anyone can imagine.
The next 12 months will be very fascinating to watch. Will sellers decide the price is just to tempting and try and hit the bid. Time will tell.
Hey all, Well, my 70s unopened is up at Memory lane (still have about a quarter of my stash left). Hurts me to even look. I am still reluctant to sell my 80s unless it goes to the stratosphere but I have maintained that this supply is much deeper and peeps are not going to rip 80s like we did the 70s to near oblivion. I was one of the first posting about the rise of 70s prices and the difficulty finding product several years ago and probably cost myself money doing so (while I was still buying). As I mentioned in several posts and in personal correspondance, the only reason I am selling off 1/2 my collection is that I am convinced the dollar will collapse in the near future so I am repositioning into hard assets (i.e. gold, silver and freeze dried food lol). To be honest, I would rather hold cardboard than any paper (i.e. stocks, bonds etc. I own zero stocks now except for a small 401k I haven't checked on in years and will probably cash in). I am not making any projections of the card market for the next several years because I honestly have no clue how bad things might get soon in the US (sorry to be a fear porn poster). IMO the dollar is dead - it just doesnt know it yet. I hope that my freinds here consider my warning. Henry
<< <i>If it's "consortiums" buying, that absolutely won't end well. This stuff isn't stocks that can be sold off instantly. >>
I've learned through the years that those with deep pockets(of which I do not include myself) can sit on their investments, be it stocks etc. for years and ride out the up/down waves. That to me is the key element here. So if in fact a consortium buys this expensive wax, it's likely they would sit on it till a price increase then dole it out as to not flood the marketplace to continue a perceived scarcity image. And by witholding it for as long as possible they help to foster this image so much more. It is better for them not to dump a large bulk purchase of rare wax. IMHO. >>
<< <i><< I think in the end we'll realize that over $2K for a '78 wax box was/is classic irrational exuberance, aided by the "group excitement" for unopened that has been fostered by discussions here. There just isn't any rational basis for $60-70 per pack price based either on content value or unopened scarcity. This goes double for a '79 wax box approaching $2K. >> >>
I couldn't agree more. The prices being paid for 1978 and 1979 cards is just insane. I personally have over 10+ sharp complete sets from each of those two years. They are VERY common cards and should sell for a fraction of the current price.
Henry, You are liquidating your assets (cards, stocks, etc) because you think the dollar is on the verge of collapse? I think you have let your dislike of the current administration color your economic vision too much. How exactly would you define a crash in the dollar? 50-60-70% decline?
What about this chart leads you to believe a collapse is immanent? As we have been running up our debt so has every other major country. If the US dollar reaches a point that it is no longer the world's reserve currency who will take that role over?
Anyone who looks at the numbers from this site and isn't scared to death is dreaming. That part I get. But if a collapse is coming it won't be until out interest rates rise due to credit risk and cause the budget deficit to explode due to interest expense.
I don't think we can compare unopened sports cards with other "invisible" "investments" like stocks and bonds. An owner can't get any enjoyment out of a stock or bond other than the dollars they get when they sell them. For most, the investment part of unopened cards is secondary to the enjoyment of owning them, therefore their value in less likely to be affected by economic downturns.
<< <i>I don't think we can compare unopened sports cards with other "invisible" "investments" like stocks and bonds. An owner can't get any enjoyment out of a stock or bond other than the dollars they get when they sell them. For most, the investment part of unopened cards is secondary to the enjoyment of owning them, therefore their value in less likely to be affected by economic downturns. >>
Nothing in life is immune from economic forces. If the economy took a major nose dive people sell assets of value to use those funds in time of need. Not everyone holding sports cards has deep pockets and their collections can be future supply.
From reading posts on this boards, as well as from personal experience, guys use "disposable" income to buy sports cards. That is their "entertainment" money that would have otherwise been blown on other forms of entertainment. I don't think many guys here have closed out their 401K accounts and instead have chosen to use cards as pure investment. And, if you are talking about a total and devastating collapse in the economy where people lose their jobs and can't pay their bills, that is different than more common declines that do affect stocks and other similar investments...but do not affect unopened card values.
<< <i>From reading posts on this boards, as well as from personal experience, guys use "disposable" income to buy sports cards. That is their "entertainment" money that would have otherwise been blown on other forms of entertainment. I don't think many guys here have closed out their 401K accounts and instead have chosen to use cards as pure investment. And, if you are talking about a total and devastating collapse in the economy where people lose their jobs and can't pay their bills, that is different than more common declines that do affect stocks and other similar investments...but do not affect unopened card values. >>
The idea that all of the funds going into trading cards is disposable income is a misnomer. There are plenty of people who have had bad luck with stocks or other traditional investments that use investment funds to buy trading cards.
If what Henry believes is coming actually happens it will have an impact on most card values. Unopened would in no way shape or form be immune from that.
<< <i>Hey all, Well, my 70s unopened is up at Memory lane (still have about a quarter of my stash left). Hurts me to even look. I am still reluctant to sell my 80s unless it goes to the stratosphere but I have maintained that this supply is much deeper and peeps are not going to rip 80s like we did the 70s to near oblivion. I was one of the first posting about the rise of 70s prices and the difficulty finding product several years ago and probably cost myself money doing so (while I was still buying). As I mentioned in several posts and in personal correspondance, the only reason I am selling off 1/2 my collection is that I am convinced the dollar will collapse in the near future so I am repositioning into hard assets (i.e. gold, silver and freeze dried food lol). To be honest, I would rather hold cardboard than any paper (i.e. stocks, bonds etc. I own zero stocks now except for a small 401k I haven't checked on in years and will probably cash in). I am not making any projections of the card market for the next several years because I honestly have no clue how bad things might get soon in the US (sorry to be a fear porn poster). IMO the dollar is dead - it just doesnt know it yet. I hope that my freinds here consider my warning. Henry >>
I'm with you Henry. Not a single stock in my life. Real Estate,Gold,Siver,and some cardboard which is fun and relaxing. All my stock market friends are gloating about how well they've been doing,especially last year.Of course they don't admit how long it took them to recover from 2007-8 debacle. What was that they said on Hills Street Blues."Be careful out there"
Interested in 60's and 70's psa and raw star and hof cards
I don't go into stocks either, but I think "super rich guy toys" that are highly desirable-- such as the most elite, "blue-chip" sports cards and unopened-- are as safe as it comes in terms of value. The very rich tend to stay rich, in my opinion, and they will always pay top dollar if they want something-- no matter the ebbs and flows of the economy. So if anything, if I had a bleak view of the economy, I'd love holding a 1971 Topps Wax Box or a dead centered, creaseless 52 Mantle. Hence I don't get the selling just based on a rough outlook, but hey, that's just me. If a guy wants to sell because the sky is blue or he lost his passion or his job, to each his own, all good. In my opinion though, major "seller's market" items only need a literal handful of buyers with deep pockets to find them desirable and the seller will do just fine. And if one gets tremendous joy out of holding such items, all the better until selling time comes, if ever, hopefully never
<< <i>I don't go into stocks either, but I think "super rich guy toys" that are highly desirable-- such as the most elite, "blue-chip" sports cards and unopened-- are as safe as it comes in terms of value. The very rich tend to stay rich, in my opinion, and they will always pay top dollar if they want something-- no matter the ebbs and flows of the economy. So if anything, if I had a bleak view of the economy, I'd love holding a 1971 Topps Wax Box or a dead centered, creaseless 52 Mantle. Hence I don't get the selling just based on a rough outlook, but hey, that's just me. Those are major "seller's market" items that only need a literal handful of buyers with deep pockets to find them desirable and the seller will do just fine. >>
There are definitely a few parts of the card market that can hold up in any downturn. The elite items are held by individuals that can generally withstand any storm and there are bragging rights associated with those items. A sealed box of 1979 Topps doesn't fit that description.
Agreed on the 79 wax. In terms of unopened I'd put any 50s and 60s box into that ultra elite safe-zone. But I'm really a card guy, so I might be wrong there if one of the 60s era boxes is not considered desirable by the high end unopened collectors. Just guessing based on age.
<< <i>Agreed on the 79 wax. In terms of unopened I'd put any 50s and 60s box into that ultra elite safe-zone. But I'm really a card guy, so I might be wrong there if one of the 60s era boxes is not considered desirable by the high end unopened collectors. Just guessing based on age. >>
The higher up the food chain you go with cards the safer you are from a major price decline. I wouldn't put any of the cards in my collection in this category. I feel pretty confident that many will hold value but if a true melt down occurred all bets are off.
<< <i>Henry, You are liquidating your assets (cards, stocks, etc) because you think the dollar is on the verge of collapse? I think you have let your dislike of the current administration color your economic vision too much. How exactly would you define a crash in the dollar? 50-60-70% decline?
Robb >>
Hey Robb, to be honest I have grown to dislike the "previous" administration to near equal levels and abandoned the so-called republican party when I noticed that skull-and-bones W flipped the stars on the republican elephant symbol from stars to pentagrams. As for the extent of a dollar collapse - that is actually an interesting question. Here are the facts, at the point of the Brettenwoods agreement in the 40s when the dollar became the world currency the US owned 80% of the world's gold and 40% of the mining interests! Today, I believe the US is busted. So is London. On the other hand, China has been buying around 1000 metric tons a year over the past several years and buying up all the mining interests it can get its hands on. Similar story with Russia on a smaller scale. Look up what has happened recently when Germany has tried to repatriate its Gold from the US. Nada. The US basically gave the Germans 5 tons of crap metal and said "we'll get YOUR gold back to you in uh...7-9 years" we are having some "logistical" issues. The gold has been hypothecated. I have surveyed many money economists who are equally pessimistic. The most likely scenario is that there will be a "reset" of the dollar at some point driven by the IMF (perhaps a 30% devaluation). These revaluations will probably be somewhat determined by how rich each country is in tangible assets (i.e. Gold). Here, China and Russia win. At that point the Petro-dollar is dead and going forward all bets are off. In this scenario, I would rather hold hard assets like several of you mentioned. I put high-end cards closer to the category of art (harder asset than paper bonds) - but I just felt it important to diversify into other assets for my family's sake and the cards I will keep will be both my favorites (i.e. minis) and purely for enjoyment (disposable i.e. 80s unopened) EDIT: One other scenario that I deem likely is that it is actually Japan's Yen that fails first. Basically, the US has forced the countries of the world toward a race-to-the-bottom currency war. Japan has been devaluing its currency along with other countries including China and the E.U. but it is getting very close to collapse IMO. So we are probably all headed for a guns and butter age.
If we're all really headed for a hardcore guns and butter age, I think I'd rather have a cabin in Utah (with a big fence, a generator, a solar panel, a water well, food stocks, and some shotguns) than gold. I'd take the former in the case of a global economic collapse over gold. Because if that massive economic collapse does happen, why would anyone invest in items that only have value in a functioning economy? In that case it's a self-sufficient little home fortress I'd want!
I actually think a good amount of people (in America) have an interest and respect for elite baseball cards-- I'm talking about the big ones mentioned in the parenthetical above (and their ilk; T210 Shoeless, Ty Cobb w/Cobb Back, Just So Cy Young, the list can go on a bit more, though it's short). I don't see the vast majority of people looking at anyone funny who says they collect cards and have a rare and significant collection; in fact I think the vast majority would express some genuine interest and like to see said collection. At least that has been my experience. But these are just differing instincts and opinions that can never really be proven one way or another.
As to cards being art, I definitely think that-- the exhibit at The Met in NYC aside-- cards are definitely a thread of the American cultural fabric and some are akin to art. Again, it doesn't get more subjective than this, but as an avid collector of both I see them as kin, if not the same. I think rare books also have a significance that is akin to art and elite cards. Now am I comparing a PSA 10 52 Mantle to a Van Gogh or even Basquiat's "Hollywood Africans" in terms of global appeal to bidders at auction or hammer price? Of course not. But the argument for card as art can definitely be made, and made convincingly to just as many who would feel otherwise.
Comments
<< <i>Taking a different angle, I have no doubt we are riding a wave at the moment, but in terms of supply, just think back on the last five years of group breaks. They went from common blast fests, to less common, semi blast/semi hoard, to altogether rare.
To me the biggest reason is lack of product to rip. We just aren't even seeing many boxes at any price last long enough to coordinate a rip. It will be interesting to see what they are able to bring to and buy at the national this year... >>
Another good point--in years past, we'd see boxes go up for sale on the bbce site and Mark would have st least a day or two to coordinate the rip with Steve without someone swooping in and buying the boxes at full price within hours of being listed on the site. The buying pool is not only more aggressive now, but larger, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
aconte
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>For some reason it does seem like discussions of unopened always wind up focusing on prices and the market and future prices. Just my opinion, but I'd much rather hear about treasured pieces in collections, how collectors came upon those triumphant finds, what makes one box or pack rarer or more special to a collection, and things like that. End of the day, no one knows where prices will go on anything. Does anyone else notice this? >>
You have a good point, Matty, in that the unopened collectors I know appreciate the item or pack more than its ROI. But it is virtually impossible NOT to mention price considering how rapidly prices have risen in value over the past two years with new records seemingly being set every other week.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I try to avoid predicting where prices will go because I don't want to come off like a stock pumper and, frankly, I have no clue. There's a lack of market transparency and too few data points for me to make an educated guess, but I am bullish on the sports card and memorabilia markets generally for quality items with relative scarcity.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
CrissCriss, if you look at the people who share their bullish opinions on unopened, you will see that they tend to purchase far more than they sell. They are actually working against their self-interests in depressing current prices. If you are in accumulation mode and want to make as much money as possible, you would talk down unopened as much as possible until you have everything you want. Then pump it up. One of the great things about this forum is the honesty of the long-time members. I have and continue to learn much from them (Grote, CPA Mike, 1954. Ron Burgundy, 70s Topps, etc.).
Grote - FYI - my iPad keeps trying to change your screen name to "Grotesque"! Don't take it personally if it ever squeaks through.
<< <i>
<< <i>Ok who is sitting on the 52's????
Fess up and let's see some pics! >>
I've got a nickel and a penny pack, but I only collect 1 per year.
That is an awesome display and pack collection. WOW!!!
Things always go well when groups of investors target non-mainstream collectables...
Does anyone think 100 boxes would be worth less than what market value is today? I for one believe the price would not be affected at all.
Since we already saw this exact scenario play out with 1975 minis I would wonder why the next time would be different. However we are not going to see 100 1974 boxes become available but we might see 100 1979 or 1980 boxes. 1980 baseball boxes are not particularly rare regardless of what people are paying for them now.
I believe we are approaching bubble like territory for unopened because so much of the price appreciation is driven by new entrants into unopened "collecting". I doubt these new entrants will stay for the long term. The collector vs ripper dynamic for pre-1980 unopened boxes has shifted to nearly 100% collector/investor. If you look at earlier unopened where it is nearly 100% collector you do not see these types of meteoric price rises. We are definitely watching the greater fool theory play out at the moment. If I hadn't ripped all the 70s unopened I purchased over the last 15-20 years I would definitely be a seller right now. That said this sort of irrational market can go on for a quite a while.
Twelve months ago on this board folks were justifying the rising unopened prices on 70s PSA 9/10 HOF RC price appreciation. At least that nonsensical argument has disappeared in the face of continued rising unopened prices.
Robb
<< <i> If I hadn't ripped all the 70s unopened I purchased over the last 15-20 years I would definitely be a seller right now. That said this sort of irrational market can go on for a quite a while.
Robb >>
I think this is one of the major reasons the unopened prices are going up now, I also credit the economic recovery in large part to the rise too. As long as both of these two factors are in place I don't think we are in a bubble where prices are going to fall more than 20% or more but rather a rational market driven by normal macro economic forces. I think today's prices a year, two years and five years will all be higher than they are today.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
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I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here.
<< <i>Despite the talk of the "taper", the Fed is still going to put in close to $600B, yes Billion, in liquidity into the economy this year. That buys a lot of BBCE boxes.
I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here. >>
Well said...it would be nice to see some stabilization though. It's as easy as supply and demand, and there are many that want to play at a high level. No chance unopened goes down, it'll just be interesting to see what high graded cards do in unison...I would think it would follow uptick and grow but at a smaller rate.
<< <i>
<< <i>Despite the talk of the "taper", the Fed is still going to put in close to $600B, yes Billion, in liquidity into the economy this year. That buys a lot of BBCE boxes.
I've been in this hobby a long time. Prices have fluctuated on the high end stuff and the economy has impacted hobby activity, but they have never "crashed". Those predicting prices crashing on pre-1986 unopened boxes are no more rational than those pumping up the prices.
The hobby is now dominated by adults who spend a lot of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures and maybe ink on them. I doubt that anyone playing in the high end game is living from check to check or using an EBT card.
In the Tech crash and housing crash, you had a lot of buyers in those market that didn't know what they were doing and couldn't really afford to play. When I read the posts here and in other forums, most people in the vintage unopened market seem to be very knowledgeable and rational. I don't see any bubble here. >>
Well said...it would be nice to see some stabilization though. It's as easy as supply and demand, and there are many that want to play at a high level. No chance unopened goes down, it'll just be interesting to see what high graded cards do in unison...I would think it would follow uptick and grow but at a smaller rate. >>
Definitely not the case for mid to late 70s graded. It's in the toilet except for superstar cards and some low pop cards. Definitely nowhere near where it was 10-15 years ago. You can get most commons from 1974 on up in PSA 9 condition for under $10 each.
may not continue on the steep upward incline that we have been experiencing for the pas few years, but they are not likely to be falling (unless
a huge cache of legitimate product suddenly comes available in the market).
The real issue in today's unopened market is that the supply of legitimate product is being dwarfed by the demand. In these kinds of market conditions
basic micro-economics tells us all we really need to know; Prices will trend upward until supply and demand are re-balanced. It's hard to see that happening
quickly when there are some on the demand side who take the attitude that they will pay just about any price to get the few authentic items that are popping up.
I made some very strong bids on many items over the past year that weren't even close to winners. Further, from what I was told after the fact the limits set
by the people I lost out to were significantly higher than I could have ever imagined. An example is a box I bid on last year that had never sold for a 5-figure
amount before. Not only did it cross the 5-figure threshold, but I have it from a source that I trust that the winning bidder had a limit bid more than 50%
higher than the closing price (including the BP).
The real challenge now for the rest of us unopened collectors is to decide how far we are willing to go in order to secure items that we are interested in. This is
not as much of an issue with individual packs, as it is with full boxes. Opportunities to add multiple pre-1980 boxes in a year are going to be sparse at best
from this point forward. Therefore, those of us who collect full boxes are going to have to re-evaluate a bit, focus and prioritize in order to continue adding to
our collections.
Dave
<< <i>
Definitely not the case for mid to late 70s graded. It's in the toilet except for superstar cards and some low pop cards. Definitely nowhere near where it was 10-15 years ago. You can get most commons from 1974 on up in PSA 9 condition for under $10 each. >>
I wouldn't classify mid-late 1970's graded commons or even non RC stars "high end" unless it is a tough PSA 9 or PSA 10. My comments don't apply to the entire hobby, only on the high-end. The modern hobby crashed in the early 1990's, the insert craze crashed late 1990's/early 2000's, heck even Griffey graded RCs crashed. I remember PSA 10 Upper Deck RCs go for over $1000. But the very high end of the hobby - top graded HOF RCs, unopened boxes. rare pre-war cards - have held strong through each of these cycles. I'm interested to see what happens to the 1981-1986 unopened market. The kids that collected those years are approaching their early 40's. 1983 Topps, 1984 Donruss, and 1985 Topps could be the next boxes to go on a run.
are Gwynn, Sandberg, Boggs, Clemens, Puckett and maybe Mattingly.
Some of these guys compare favorably to the RCs of 78-80 (Murray, Molitor/Trammel,Smith, Henderson),
but Clemens tainted himself and Mattingly's injury definitely kept him from reaching his true potential.
However, the driver has to be based on the fact that the volume of product produced was MUCH greater
in the 83-85 timeframe.
Fundamentally it always seems to come back to the supply side. I just dont see 83-85 taking the same kind of
climb that we've seen from the years prior to this. Too much supply exists.
Dave
Instagram: mattyc_collection
No argument about Donnie baseball. Even though he was a Yankee, I was a fan. He was special, and were it not for his injury he was
definitely on track to make the HOF.
However, my point was indirectly about the players mentioned. The point was that in terms of unopened the values associated with high
end player RCs from 83-85 does not come close to those of the 78-80 timeframe. Further, there is much MORE unopened remaining from
the later timeframe.
So if there is more supply, and the value of the later RCs being less I just dont see 83-85 unopened as likey to take the same rapid
elevator ride that we are seeing with the late 70s unopened.
Dave
<< <i>Fundamentally it always seems to come back to the supply side. I just dont see 83-85 taking the same kind of
climb that we've seen from the years prior to this. Too much supply exists. >>
Agreed. Which is why it would be better to focus on some of the unopened wax from the late 1980s to early 1990s which are still relatively cheap, have cards of interest, and/or were produced in lower quantities than people have assumed (as indicated by the much fewer number of boxes available compared to others from the era of 1981 on up).
<< <i>If it's "consortiums" buying, that absolutely won't end well. This stuff isn't stocks that can be sold off instantly. >>
I've learned through the years that those with deep pockets(of which I do not include myself) can sit on their investments, be it stocks etc. for years and ride out the up/down waves. That to me is the key element here. So if in fact a consortium buys this expensive wax, it's likely they would sit on it till a price increase then dole it out as to not flood the marketplace to continue a perceived scarcity image. And by witholding it for as long as possible they help to foster this image so much more. It is better for them not to dump a large bulk purchase of rare wax. IMHO.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ok who is sitting on the 52's????
Fess up and let's see some pics! >>
I've got a nickel and a penny pack, but I only collect 1 per year.
That is an awesome display and pack collection. WOW!!! >>
I may have complimented you before on this display, but once again AAA+++. As a suggestion I would suggest you making a poster of your collection and marketing it. Probably many on this forum would purchase it, it's that impressive.
<< <i>where is Mike hiding? lol >>
I'm here, just not enough time in the day lately.
Lots of great points in this thread. I will just say that as much as I think there are lots of top notch unopened collectors on this board, the board is not driving the unopened market. It is just a reflection of the market as a whole. As we all know and have seen lately, lots of collectors are re-entering the market now and have the cash on hand to buy.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
Well guess what. Some became very valuable.
This move higher in the unopened segment has been very fun to watch. To think that the packs that collectors busted just a few years ago have moved so dramatically above the average break even point is fascinating.
After reading so many posts about the topic it is clear that the sentiment has reached bullish levels never seen before. It seems time and time again that markets that reach these levels of optimism have harsh corrections. The supply and demand characteristics are different for most markets and time will tell how this plays out.
If you valued boxes of cards in a similar manner that stocks value corporate profits the yield to box ratio is the highest one has ever seen. Once valuations for anything move out of the normal expected range of outcomes they can go much further then anyone can imagine.
The next 12 months will be very fascinating to watch. Will sellers decide the price is just to tempting and try and hit the bid. Time will tell.
Well, my 70s unopened is up at Memory lane (still have about a quarter of my stash left). Hurts me to even look. I am still reluctant to sell my 80s unless it goes to the stratosphere but I have maintained that this supply is much deeper and peeps are not going to rip 80s like we did the 70s to near oblivion. I was one of the first posting about the rise of 70s prices and the difficulty finding product several years ago and probably cost myself money doing so (while I was still buying). As I mentioned in several posts and in personal correspondance, the only reason I am selling off 1/2 my collection is that I am convinced the dollar will collapse in the near future so I am repositioning into hard assets (i.e. gold, silver and freeze dried food lol). To be honest, I would rather hold cardboard than any paper (i.e. stocks, bonds etc. I own zero stocks now except for a small 401k I haven't checked on in years and will probably cash in).
I am not making any projections of the card market for the next several years because I honestly have no clue how bad things might get soon in the US (sorry to be a fear porn poster). IMO the dollar is dead - it just doesnt know it yet. I hope that my freinds here consider my warning.
Henry
<< <i>
<< <i>If it's "consortiums" buying, that absolutely won't end well. This stuff isn't stocks that can be sold off instantly. >>
I've learned through the years that those with deep pockets(of which I do not include myself) can sit on their investments, be it stocks etc. for years and ride out the up/down waves. That to me is the key element here. So if in fact a consortium buys this expensive wax, it's likely they would sit on it till a price increase then dole it out as to not flood the marketplace to continue a perceived scarcity image. And by witholding it for as long as possible they help to foster this image so much more. It is better for them not to dump a large bulk purchase of rare wax. IMHO. >>
An individual can function in this manner.
<< <i><< I think in the end we'll realize that over $2K for a '78 wax box was/is classic irrational exuberance, aided by the "group excitement" for unopened that has been fostered by discussions here. There just isn't any rational basis for $60-70 per pack price based either on content value or unopened scarcity. This goes double for a '79 wax box approaching $2K. >> >>
I couldn't agree more. The prices being paid for 1978 and 1979 cards is just insane. I personally have over 10+ sharp complete sets from each of those two years. They are VERY common cards and should sell for a fraction of the current price.
You are liquidating your assets (cards, stocks, etc) because you think the dollar is on the verge of collapse? I think you have let your dislike of the current administration color your economic vision too much.
How exactly would you define a crash in the dollar? 50-60-70% decline?
Robb
What about this chart leads you to believe a collapse is immanent? As we have been running up our debt so has every other major country. If the US dollar reaches a point that it is no longer the world's reserve currency who will take that role over?
US debt clock
Anyone who looks at the numbers from this site and isn't scared to death is dreaming. That part I get. But if a collapse is coming it won't be until out interest rates rise due to credit risk and cause the budget deficit to explode due to interest expense.
<< <i>I don't think we can compare unopened sports cards with other "invisible" "investments" like stocks and bonds. An owner can't get any enjoyment out of a stock or bond other than the dollars they get when they sell them. For most, the investment part of unopened cards is secondary to the enjoyment of owning them, therefore their value in less likely to be affected by economic downturns. >>
Nothing in life is immune from economic forces. If the economy took a major nose dive people sell assets of value to use those funds in time of need. Not everyone holding sports cards has deep pockets and their collections can be future supply.
<< <i>From reading posts on this boards, as well as from personal experience, guys use "disposable" income to buy sports cards. That is their "entertainment" money that would have otherwise been blown on other forms of entertainment. I don't think many guys here have closed out their 401K accounts and instead have chosen to use cards as pure investment. And, if you are talking about a total and devastating collapse in the economy where people lose their jobs and can't pay their bills, that is different than more common declines that do affect stocks and other similar investments...but do not affect unopened card values. >>
The idea that all of the funds going into trading cards is disposable income is a misnomer. There are plenty of people who have had bad luck with stocks or other traditional investments that use investment funds to buy trading cards.
If what Henry believes is coming actually happens it will have an impact on most card values. Unopened would in no way shape or form be immune from that.
<< <i>Hey all,
Well, my 70s unopened is up at Memory lane (still have about a quarter of my stash left). Hurts me to even look. I am still reluctant to sell my 80s unless it goes to the stratosphere but I have maintained that this supply is much deeper and peeps are not going to rip 80s like we did the 70s to near oblivion. I was one of the first posting about the rise of 70s prices and the difficulty finding product several years ago and probably cost myself money doing so (while I was still buying). As I mentioned in several posts and in personal correspondance, the only reason I am selling off 1/2 my collection is that I am convinced the dollar will collapse in the near future so I am repositioning into hard assets (i.e. gold, silver and freeze dried food lol). To be honest, I would rather hold cardboard than any paper (i.e. stocks, bonds etc. I own zero stocks now except for a small 401k I haven't checked on in years and will probably cash in).
I am not making any projections of the card market for the next several years because I honestly have no clue how bad things might get soon in the US (sorry to be a fear porn poster). IMO the dollar is dead - it just doesnt know it yet. I hope that my freinds here consider my warning.
Henry >>
I'm with you Henry. Not a single stock in my life. Real Estate,Gold,Siver,and some cardboard which is fun and relaxing. All my stock market friends are gloating about how well they've been doing,especially last year.Of course they don't admit how long it took them to recover from 2007-8 debacle. What was that they said on Hills Street Blues."Be careful out there"
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>I don't go into stocks either, but I think "super rich guy toys" that are highly desirable-- such as the most elite, "blue-chip" sports cards and unopened-- are as safe as it comes in terms of value. The very rich tend to stay rich, in my opinion, and they will always pay top dollar if they want something-- no matter the ebbs and flows of the economy. So if anything, if I had a bleak view of the economy, I'd love holding a 1971 Topps Wax Box or a dead centered, creaseless 52 Mantle. Hence I don't get the selling just based on a rough outlook, but hey, that's just me. Those are major "seller's market" items that only need a literal handful of buyers with deep pockets to find them desirable and the seller will do just fine. >>
There are definitely a few parts of the card market that can hold up in any downturn. The elite items are held by individuals that can generally withstand any storm and there are bragging rights associated with those items. A sealed box of 1979 Topps doesn't fit that description.
A high end 1952 Mantle does.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>Agreed on the 79 wax. In terms of unopened I'd put any 50s and 60s box into that ultra elite safe-zone. But I'm really a card guy, so I might be wrong there if one of the 60s era boxes is not considered desirable by the high end unopened collectors. Just guessing based on age. >>
The higher up the food chain you go with cards the safer you are from a major price decline. I wouldn't put any of the cards in my collection in this category. I feel pretty confident that many will hold value but if a true melt down occurred all bets are off.
<< <i>Henry,
You are liquidating your assets (cards, stocks, etc) because you think the dollar is on the verge of collapse? I think you have let your dislike of the current administration color your economic vision too much.
How exactly would you define a crash in the dollar? 50-60-70% decline?
Robb >>
Hey Robb, to be honest I have grown to dislike the "previous" administration to near equal levels and abandoned the so-called republican party when I noticed that skull-and-bones W flipped the stars on the republican elephant symbol from stars to pentagrams.
As for the extent of a dollar collapse - that is actually an interesting question. Here are the facts, at the point of the Brettenwoods agreement in the 40s when the dollar became the world currency the US owned 80% of the world's gold and 40% of the mining interests! Today, I believe the US is busted. So is London. On the other hand, China has been buying around 1000 metric tons a year over the past several years and buying up all the mining interests it can get its hands on. Similar story with Russia on a smaller scale. Look up what has happened recently when Germany has tried to repatriate its Gold from the US. Nada. The US basically gave the Germans 5 tons of crap metal and said "we'll get YOUR gold back to you in uh...7-9 years" we are having some "logistical" issues. The gold has been hypothecated.
I have surveyed many money economists who are equally pessimistic. The most likely scenario is that there will be a "reset" of the dollar at some point driven by the IMF (perhaps a 30% devaluation). These revaluations will probably be somewhat determined by how rich each country is in tangible assets (i.e. Gold). Here, China and Russia win. At that point the Petro-dollar is dead and going forward all bets are off.
In this scenario, I would rather hold hard assets like several of you mentioned. I put high-end cards closer to the category of art (harder asset than paper bonds) - but I just felt it important to diversify into other assets for my family's sake and the cards I will keep will be both my favorites (i.e. minis) and purely for enjoyment (disposable i.e. 80s unopened)
EDIT: One other scenario that I deem likely is that it is actually Japan's Yen that fails first. Basically, the US has forced the countries of the world toward a race-to-the-bottom currency war. Japan has been devaluing its currency along with other countries including China and the E.U. but it is getting very close to collapse IMO. So we are probably all headed for a guns and butter age.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
As to cards being art, I definitely think that-- the exhibit at The Met in NYC aside-- cards are definitely a thread of the American cultural fabric and some are akin to art. Again, it doesn't get more subjective than this, but as an avid collector of both I see them as kin, if not the same. I think rare books also have a significance that is akin to art and elite cards. Now am I comparing a PSA 10 52 Mantle to a Van Gogh or even Basquiat's "Hollywood Africans" in terms of global appeal to bidders at auction or hammer price? Of course not. But the argument for card as art can definitely be made, and made convincingly to just as many who would feel otherwise.
Instagram: mattyc_collection