1954 Aaron price jump?

totallyradd · April 21, 2014 1:52AM

I've been keeping my eye on 1954 Aaron PSA 6 prices for the past few years. Last summer it was common to see them go anywhere from 1100-1300. Planned on getting one at the National, but could only find one on the floor and I wasn't excited about the centering. Early March one sold for 1329, then a BIN for 1600, then a week ago 1829, and it the centering wasn't all that great.

Any explanation for such a huge jump? Might have to reconsider getting a 6 and going with a 5 or 5.5.

I don't wanna bring up that locked thread from before.

mattyc_collection · April 21, 2014 2:08AM

All the old greats from Ruth to Gehrig to Aaron are now gaining a fresh round of luster in many collectors' eyes-- what with the state or sportsmanship, sports morality, and cultural morality in general. There's a prevailing wind in the zeitgeist now, a turning back toward simpler times when factors like the internet and TMZ journalism and cell phone video cameras and a scandal obsessed media and enormous contracts and the corruptive nature of such exorbitant salaries-- when all these factors did not coalesce and conspire to show all the warts on our sports heroes in 1080p. Doubtless part of the surge in prices for Aaron rookies and so many other iconic cards of past heroes is due to how large those names loom to this day, how they captured and retain a stature, a reverence, that so few (if any) in today's game seems close to securing. Something has changed in the very fabric of American culture, where it seems impossible for any athlete's name to be uttered with the same respect as Ruth, Mantle, Aaron, Gehrig, Williams, DiMaggio, Clemente, Koufax, Ryan, etc. And the best way to smell and taste those times, to reclaim some proximity to those heroes, or to know them a bit when one never knew them, is to obtain their greatest cards.

grote15 · April 21, 2014 2:18AM

Matty, that post belongs in an REA catalogue next to a PSA 8 Aaron RC...

80sOPC · April 21, 2014 2:25AM

<< All the old greats from Ruth to Gehrig to Aaron are now gaining a fresh round of luster in many collectors' eyes-- what with the state or sportsmanship, sports morality, and cultural morality in general. There's a prevailing wind in the zeitgeist now, a turning back toward simpler times when factors like the internet and TMZ journalism and cell phone video cameras and a scandal obsessed media and enormous contracts and the corruptive nature of such exorbitant salaries-- when all these factors did not coalesce and conspire to show all the warts on our sports heroes in 1080p. Doubtless part of the surge in prices for Aaron rookies and so many other iconic cards of past heroes is due to how large those names loom to this day, how they captured and retain a stature, a reverence, that so few (if any) in today's game seems close to securing. Something has changed in the very fabric of American culture, where it seems impossible for any athlete's name to be uttered with the same respect as Ruth, Mantle, Aaron, Gehrig, Williams, DiMaggio, Clemente, Koufax, Ryan, etc. And the best way to smell and taste those times, to reclaim some proximity to those heroes, or to know them a bit when one never knew them, is to obtain their greatest cards. >>

Or, it's tax season and folks just got a large cheque + housing market and overall market conditions continue to improve = more expendable money.

I don't buy the simpler time argument, and the crazy prices people are paying for modern sure don't seem to support it.

bobbyw8469 · April 21, 2014 2:26AM

I sold a sweet SGC 5 not too long ago for $880, and thought it went cheap. If you are wanting to get one, now is the time to do it!

mattyc_collection · April 21, 2014 2:41AM

No one's asking anyone to "buy" my post as the sole reason for rising prices.

It is true, however, when explaining my own buying-- and it is also true for some other collectors I know. I would assume others buying that type of card for increasingly high prices have their own reasons, which do not invalidate others' reasons for the same actions.

My own buying predilections and those of my closest collecting friends have zero to do with tax refunds or the housing market, though I am sure those factors are critical to some. There are many valid perspectives on this topic.

pclpads · April 21, 2014 2:51AM

<< No one's asking anyone to "buy" my post as the sole reason for rising prices.

It is true, however, when explaining my own buying-- and it is also true for some other collectors I know. I would assume others buying that type of card for increasingly high prices have their own reasons, which do not invalidate others' reasons for the same actions.

My own buying predilections and those of my closest collecting friends have zero to do with tax refunds or the housing market, though I am sure those factors are critical to some. There are many valid perspectives on this topic. >>

Maybe all of the above or none of the above replies. I vote for nostalgia. It is after all the 40 year ann'y of #715 + the 60 year ann'y of his RC. And not to be discounted, he just clicked 80, so no telling how long he will be around.

Dpeck100 · April 21, 2014 2:59AM

I vote for investment dollars flowing into the card market. There are a handfull of athletes from the various sports that many view as a can't miss investment and hence they buy their rookie card. Gretzky, Jordan, etc.

The card in question had a three person bidding war take it from $1,351 and it may be a coincidence but the top two bidders have high bidding activity with the seller.

54 Aaron

miklia · April 21, 2014 3:58AM

i agree with dpeck - 'smart' money isn't too interested in dumping cash into the market at these prices, and high-end cards don't take up much space in the safety deposit box. would be interesting to see how this compares to low-end aaron RCs though.

shagrotn77 · April 21, 2014 4:15AM

That $1,829 sale is a real head scratcher. That card is a dog.

bobbyw8469 · April 21, 2014 4:15AM

Wow...from $880 for a '5' to $1,800 for a '6'. As a matter of fact, I sold my '7' for $1,700. Maybe that is SGC vs PSA. But yes, my Hank Aaron rookie sold for $1,700 and then a PSA 6 sells for $100 more than a 7. I am dumbfounded......

ClockworkAngel · April 21, 2014 4:23AM

All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards

Raulsmaster · April 21, 2014 5:08AM

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

I agree 100%. This card will rise by at least 100% in 2-3 years. One of the easiest returns on money you'll find if you don't mind sitting on it

DanBessette · April 21, 2014 7:38AM

<< All the old greats from Ruth to Gehrig to Aaron are now gaining a fresh round of luster in many collectors' eyes-- what with the state or sportsmanship, sports morality, and cultural morality in general >>

Yeah, Ruth was a classy, moral guy. So was Cobb. So was the Mick. Sorry, your theory is full of holes. A good portion of athletes then were egomaniacs, felons, substance a users and cheaters. And a good portion then, like now, were saints. As a whole, athletes haven't changed much, however the media coverage has changed DRASTICALLY. You're right that a significant portion of collectors today gravitate towards the "good guys" (see my thread trying to dump my bonds, Clemens A-Rod and Braun cards). But the same was true 30 years ago during the card collecting boom and doesn't account for the recent inflation the OP referenced.

DanBessette · April 21, 2014 7:40AM

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

This.

JoeBanzai · April 21, 2014 8:19AM

Simple it's a KEY card! With Bonds being who he is/was Hank Aaron is still considered the All-Time Home Run Champ.

Can't really see this one EVER losing value.

mattyc_collection · April 21, 2014 9:28AM

<< 

<< All the old greats from Ruth to Gehrig to Aaron are now gaining a fresh round of luster in many collectors' eyes-- what with the state or sportsmanship, sports morality, and cultural morality in general >>

Yeah, Ruth was a classy, moral guy. So was Cobb. So was the Mick. Sorry, your theory is full of holes. A good portion of athletes then were egomaniacs, felons, substance a users and cheaters. And a good portion then, like now, were saints. As a whole, athletes haven't changed much, however the media coverage has changed DRASTICALLY. You're right that a significant portion of collectors today gravitate towards the "good guys" (see my thread trying to dump my bonds, Clemens A-Rod and Braun cards). But the same was true 30 years ago during the card collecting boom and doesn't account for the recent inflation the OP referenced. >>

I do think there is a big difference between liking booze and women, and lying to the nation about the use of performance enhancing drugs. Ruth and Mantle were FAR FAR FAR more beloved then and now than the cheaters of our time. I'll concede Cobb had his racism issues. If you want to call guys like Gehrig and Aaron and Clemente morally reprehensible, that's not very debatable. So I fail to see all the holes of which you speak. My "theory" was speaking primarily to how our media-saturated, internet driven society can magnify and broadcast sports heroes' flaws in a way that could not be done in yesteryear. As a function of that, I believe people look back at those past heroes with an aura and reverence that seems very difficult for a present-day star to attain. I'm sure past Hollywood icons had their skeletons, for example, but those skeletons and private lives were not visible to the casual fan the way the internet makes every movement of today's stars visible. People today see pictures of icons and celebrities doing everything from walking dogs to sipping Starbucks, and of course much worse. TMZ journalism existed in past eras but it wasn't as penetrating or pervasive as it is today-- and it has the effect of thwarting a star's luster and mystique. That luster and mystique is what I believe past heroes have that today's find it harder to attain. Hence today's stars don't seem to have the same aura or mystique that past stars have. End of the day, I buy what I buy why I buy it, and I gave my reasons for doing so. Others may have their own, which are all valid. I'd imagine collecting cards is difficult though while harboring such a negative view of "a good portion" of athletes.

vols1 · April 21, 2014 10:24AM

Maybe inflation. $1,300 in 2008 is worth $1,442 today.

BLUEJAYWAY · April 21, 2014 2:00PM

It's been a long established fact that our heroes of old in sports gained much of their aura and mystique from reporters lack of reporting on/supprressing the negatives of these stars. The reporters/stars had an unwritten rule between each other that the only way the reporters would have access granted to them would be only if the reporting was done in a favorably manner to the star. The reporters traveled on the team trains, before the onset of western team expansion/better air travel, with the players and were privy to all the goings on by the players, both good and bad habits were known by the reporters. This was much the same case with the reporters who covered the Beatles. The reporters reported all the fluff/cutesy items about the group and in turn shared in the "Beatle booty" of travel,drinks,food, and groupies according to the many books I've read over the years about them. A trade off if you will. In the case of the pre 60's heroes I have not come across a definitive book on what the reporters actual knew in the negative, as most of those reporters are now gone and with them any facts that they knew of in the negative area. Other than the occasional reference to Babe Ruth and his alledged voracious appetite for food, drink, and the references to his lady chasing, I've not come across any other references to other stars in this regard. So it seems the reporters of old must of done their job. Note:as always if I have erred in my comments a correction is always welcome.

VitoCo1972 · April 21, 2014 2:07PM

This thread is a bummer. I'm in the market for a PSA 3/4 right now.

PSASAP · April 21, 2014 3:01PM

Maybe the demand for the cards has gone way up, far surpassing the amount of supply. How any new graded (not crack outs, but legit first time graded) Hank Aaron rookie cards get added to the registry every year? Ten? Twenty? Fifty?

spazzy · April 22, 2014 4:06AM

1951 Bowman Mays RC have been sweeping up the last year. Centered examples command a higher premium. Aaron is that type of card. If its centered nice, it gets a premium. Remember, buy the card, not the holder if its from the big three companies

mattyc_collection · April 22, 2014 5:24AM

Spazzy-- it really is amazing how hard the 51 Mays card is to find centered. I haven't seen a great copy of that card for sale in some time.

shagrotn77 · April 22, 2014 5:50AM

I paid what was a pretty hefty price for this card just last year, but based on recent sales it's looking like a bargain:

And speaking of centered Mays rookies, this is one of my favorites:

esquiresports · April 22, 2014 5:52AM

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

And cards (to me and presumably the vast majority of the people on this forum) are a lot more enjoyable than the alternatives. I don't own any iconic baseball cards, but would like to one day.

My personal take is that recent price increases have been driven primarily by pent-up demand that started with the great recession, the significant income growth for the top-2% since that time, and the resulting improved sense of economic stability among this group that has led to increased discretionary spending and alternative investing.

spazzy · April 22, 2014 5:53AM

Both real nice collectable and investment card congrats!

esquiresports · April 22, 2014 9:38AM

+1. Gorgeous. I missed these while typing out boring economic thoughts!

addicted2ebay · April 22, 2014 10:02AM

Just picked up a 7 nq dead centered this week. Overpaid but hey it's a Aaron RC.

Dpeck100 · April 22, 2014 10:38AM

<< 

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

And cards (to me and presumably the vast majority of the people on this forum) are a lot more enjoyable than the alternatives. I don't own any iconic baseball cards, but would like to one day.

My personal take is that recent price increases have been driven primarily by pent-up demand that started with the great recession, the significant income growth for the top-2% since that time, and the resulting improved sense of economic stability among this group that has led to increased discretionary spending and alternative investing. >>

You don't need to be in the top 2% to afford this card in mid grade. The income growth in the top 1% is a misnomer. It is in the top 0.01%.

CW · April 22, 2014 1:09PM

Suh-weet Aaron and Mays, Andy!

ClockworkAngel · April 22, 2014 4:44PM

What a beautifully centered mays! Well done

ClockworkAngel · April 22, 2014 4:48PM

<< 

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

And cards (to me and presumably the vast majority of the people on this forum) are a lot more enjoyable than the alternatives. I don't own any iconic baseball cards, but would like to one day.

My personal take is that recent price increases have been driven primarily by pent-up demand that started with the great recession, the significant income growth for the top-2% since that time, and the resulting improved sense of economic stability among this group that has led to increased discretionary spending and alternative investing. >>

Yes. One other factor: a lot of the guys I've met that are spending big money on cards are yours and my age. Late 30's/early 40's. Guys that were 16-20 during the baseball card boom from 1987-1990. A lot of them have grown into successful financially stable people that want to reconnect with their childhood passion

mattyc_collection · April 22, 2014 4:50PM

That Aaron and Mays blow away many a higher-graded example. Great eye, Andy-- and way to buy the card both times. Eye appeal + centering > numerical grade, all day.

ClockworkAngel · April 22, 2014 11:53PM

<< Eye appeal + centering > numerical grade >>

Otherwise known as Matty's theory of baseball card relativity! And I agree with it 100%

Cakes · April 23, 2014 12:35AM

<< 

<< All one needs to do is look at the Rate of return on the true iconic cards in the hobby like the Aaron RC, Mantles, Clemente, Rose, etc and see the increase in value from one year to the next. It is higher than any CD, savings account, or most stocks. People are wising up to the true value of these cards >>

I agree 100%. This card will rise by at least 100% in 2-3 years. One of the easiest returns on money you'll find if you don't mind sitting on it >>

I respectfully disagree. I have been following this card for 3 or 4 years and while it has gained some steam there is no way it returns 100% in the next 2 or 3 years.

mattyc_collection · April 23, 2014 1:08AM

I guess some guys are into it mostly for returns, but really, if an Aaron RC returns someone 1k in a couple years, is that really a big deal? Returns and future prices can't be predicted, but what is a fact is how rare it is to find an Aaron with all three white borders of equal thickness. Almost always a tilt there as well. I'm just happy if cards hold their value and maybe increase a little. There is enjoyment to owning and viewing cards that goes beyond a spreadsheet or list of stocks held, in my opinion, and that enjoyment has a value that should be factored in. The pride of having a great eye, the pride and joy of ownership Andy must have for selecting those two beautiful examples that blow away so many with higher numerical grades-- that is really the salient point, for me, over returns and future prices.

1954 Aaron price jump?

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