Baseball card and memorabilia prices and the growth of other alternative investments
esquiresports
Posts: 1,360 ✭✭✭
We've all seen generally strong growth in sales prices of 1970s unopened and high-end graded cards over the last few years (among other items). There were two interesting articles on CNN-Money today that discussed the collector car and art markets. It was reported that the collector car market grew from $240 million in collector cars sold via auction (non-eBay) in 2004 to $1.3 billion last year. The average auctioned car price increased from $33K to $61K over the same period. Art auction sales have move than tripled in the last 12 years to more than $66 billion. A small Ming dynasty cup just sold for $36 million.
Perhaps cards are just part of this trend of a cash inflow into "alternative investments." It's also interesting to think how small the higher-end sports card auction market is relative to these and other collectibles. I understand that eBay commands a decent percentage of the higher-end market, but that probably holds true for other collectibles as well. I would estimate that total auction house sales of sports cards and memorabilia combined last year didn't top $100 million. A handful of well-heeled investors may be able to really move the market for scarce cards and collectibles and may be doing so already.
Perhaps cards are just part of this trend of a cash inflow into "alternative investments." It's also interesting to think how small the higher-end sports card auction market is relative to these and other collectibles. I understand that eBay commands a decent percentage of the higher-end market, but that probably holds true for other collectibles as well. I would estimate that total auction house sales of sports cards and memorabilia combined last year didn't top $100 million. A handful of well-heeled investors may be able to really move the market for scarce cards and collectibles and may be doing so already.
Always buying 1971 OPC Baseball packs.
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My dad's 900k stock sale turned into 600k after Uncle Sam took his share.
Many rich people like limited government, and tax breaks.
Our current regime likes big government and income redistribution.
No surprise that the big money is going places where paper trails do not follow.
in terms of collectibles, given the lack of global interest, I would guess that it doesn't matter to this market as much as those like art, wine, watches, and other globally-hyped high-end luxury markets.
edit to add to esquire that turnover of luxury items is also higher now than it used to be, inflating those figures slightly. items that a wealthy individual might have held for, say, 10 years before are now held for 3. it's a lot of the same stuff being sold and re-sold more rapidly, art flipping in particular.
Did you guys see the Earl Campbell PSA 10 in the PWCC auction last night - closed for $3351. Cards like this show a real movement of $$$ into 70's and 80's football (and baseball) where a lot of these folks grew up watching these players and now can afford to spend strong on high grade examples
Al
I remember reading about that sentiment years ago from a respected hobbyist. He naturally concluded that almost all adults like to reconnect with their youth at some point in their life. What better time to do that then when your family life is stable, kids almost grown and your income at its highest level. He said that we would see huge interest in 70's and 80's material by the time those childhood collectors were nearing middle age(interpreted as roughly 40 years into the future) So, it comes as no surprise that material from the 1970's, in particular, is so red hot right now.
Of course, I dont exactly see that happening in the year 2030
I've seen hobby shops transform into Magic card shops over the years.
If anyone looked at the sales numbers I bet it is a consistent growing category of collecting.
certainly trumps sports card interest at the 10-25 age group.
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Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
<< <i>I predict Magic the gathering cards are going to be part of the major auction house listings in the future.
I've seen hobby shops transform into Magic card shops over the years.
If anyone looked at the sales numbers I bet it is a consistent growing category of collecting.
certainly trumps sports card interest at the 10-25 age group. >>
Good call, the people that collect/play are pretty avid.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>I predict Magic the gathering cards are going to be part of the major auction house listings in the future.
I've seen hobby shops transform into Magic card shops over the years.
If anyone looked at the sales numbers I bet it is a consistent growing category of collecting.
certainly trumps sports card interest at the 10-25 age group. >>
Could not agree MORE with this!
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>Regarding taxes. My income, capital gains, interest, and withholdings, and deductions were pretty much the same in 2012 and 2013. My federal taxes had a $2600 increase - I went from getting a $1500 refund to paying a little over $1100.
You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
Not to get into a political debate here, but capatilism without checks and balances will always fail/always has failed.
It's like a game of Monopoly....Once your brother has all the railroads, owns all the properties, and has hotels on everything, well, you have to start over.
For every complaint I have heard about "redistribution" and "people living for free off the government"......I have yet to hear of ONE well to do person willing to switch places, and enjoy all of those "freebies" instead of maintaining their lifestyle as is.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Regarding taxes. My income, capital gains, interest, and withholdings, and deductions were pretty much the same in 2012 and 2013. My federal taxes had a $2600 increase - I went from getting a $1500 refund to paying a little over $1100.
You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
Not to get into a political debate here, but capatilism without checks and balances will always fail/always has failed.
It's like a game of Monopoly....Once your brother has all the railroads, owns all the properties, and has hotels on everything, well, you have to start over.
For every complaint I have heard about "redistribution" and "people living for free off the government"......I have yet to hear of ONE well to do person willing to switch places, and enjoy all of those "freebies" instead of maintaining their lifestyle as is. >>
I hear all the attacks on the "rich", CEOs, and corporations for being greedy and not paying enough taxes. It's all about "fairness". If the tax increases only affected the true rich, CEOs, and corporations, I would be OK with that. First I am neither rich or a CEO. I don't own any railroads, I only have a house mortgage. My wife and I both have college degrees and we both work. I live in SoCal and while our income may be considered high in the Midwest, in LA it is middle class. If the current admin said that working married people with college degrees are greedy and don't pay their fair share, I think we would see more people complaining. >>
Speaking of College, I did my tax return today and couldn't take advantage of any tax write offs/credits for myself (went back to school last year part time) or my kid (freshmen full time) because I made over a certain amount last year.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>And fantasy baseball players will wear wizard hats and wave wands instead of bats. >>
You're killing me.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Regarding taxes. My income, capital gains, interest, and withholdings, and deductions were pretty much the same in 2012 and 2013. My federal taxes had a $2600 increase - I went from getting a $1500 refund to paying a little over $1100.
You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
Not to get into a political debate here, but capatilism without checks and balances will always fail/always has failed.
It's like a game of Monopoly....Once your brother has all the railroads, owns all the properties, and has hotels on everything, well, you have to start over.
For every complaint I have heard about "redistribution" and "people living for free off the government"......I have yet to hear of ONE well to do person willing to switch places, and enjoy all of those "freebies" instead of maintaining their lifestyle as is. >>
I hear all the attacks on the "rich", CEOs, and corporations for being greedy and not paying enough taxes. It's all about "fairness". If the tax increases only affected the true rich, CEOs, and corporations, I would be OK with that. First I am neither rich or a CEO. I don't own any railroads, I only have a house mortgage. My wife and I both have college degrees and we both work. I live in SoCal and while our income may be considered high in the Midwest, in LA it is middle class. If the current admin said that working married people with college degrees are greedy and don't pay their fair share, I think we would see more people complaining. >>
No offense intended toward yourself in any way, I was just making a point is all.
Two sides to every story, but there is always a gray area in between. As an example, for every person like yourself who gets lumped in with the "rich greedy CEOs" there are people at the other end of the spectrum who genuinely have fallen on hard times and get lumped in with the "free loading moochers".
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection
<< <i>My brother's 70k Christmas bonus turned into 45k after the government got through with him.
My dad's 900k stock sale turned into 600k after Uncle Sam took his share.
I hope your father and brother are not looking for sympathy. If your #s are correct on your father's sale, he needs a new broker and/or accountant.
1. "Taxes are higher"-higher than what?
2. What deductions did the ACA take away?
Anyhow, if you're interested in reading about the tax increases and changes to deductions resulting from the ACA, here is a pretty good link. Here in California, higher income earners got hit with higher federal and significantly higher state taxes.
Tax Provisions in the ACA for Individuals
So, do you believe that the alleged growth in alternative investing has been a major driver in card/memorabilia price increases we've seen the last few years?
<< <i>
<< <i>You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
1. "Taxes are higher"-higher than what?
2. What deductions did the ACA take away? >>
You can look them up yourselves on Google, no one is hiding this info. A couple of examples is the 3.8% tax on capitals gains. This is on top of the normal capital gains tax. Another tax is the additional 0.9% Medicare tax on incomes over $250K.
As for deductions, most of the usual ones I take (for job related expense like a cell phone) were subject to a 2% AGI min. That virtually eliminates the deductions since it was done on a per deduction basis and not a total deduction basis.
I do my own taxes so I could see the 2012 and 2013 differences in what I was allowed to take.
I find it funny that people think they know what is "fair" for what other people should pay in taxes. I see these politicians complaining about millionaires and corporations avoiding taxes and justification for passing these laws. If that is the problem, why not start the higher taxes at $1 MM/year? Most of the tax increases start at $250K for a married couples. However you can't get the people angry at households with two working college educated adults, so you need to lump them in with the hedge fund managers.
Also I know that there ares some people on this board that are having hard times. But to be in this hobby takes disposable income. When 30-40 year old boxes of cardboard routinely sell out at hundreds even thousands of dollars, I don't think there is an money problem. I would venture to guess that most people here aren't waiting for a check on the 1st and 15th. >>
I would be willing to pay 90% in income tax.....but I get to treat my household as a business.
I get to write off every penny I spend, just like a business:
Rent
Utilities
Medical expenses
Food
Entertainment
Gas
Car payments, insurance, registrations, etc.
Everything I buy is a "business expense".
If I could file my taxes like this....even at a 90% tax rate, my tax bill would be nearly non-existent. At 28-32%....I bet I wouldn't owe more than 20 bucks a year.
Why does GM get to write off their electric bill, but I dont? How is a 1/2 million dollar trip to Las Vegas a deduction for Caterpillar, but I can't write off a trip to the movie theater?
Corporations and high earners get taxed at a higher rate.....but have 300x more deductions.
I will pay 90%, and take every write off.....or how about they pay 15% and do not get to deduct anything.
Fair is in the eye of the beholder.
<< <i>I know there are a few coin collectors that are active in the Sports Cards forum. What's the general opinion of coins vs cards as an investment? That is, if you had $10K, and you wanted to put your money into one of these areas, which would you put for greater return? I think in cards it is not too hard to make something like a 10% return. There are many strategies to do this. For example, one thing that I have done is to buy lots of ungraded cards that I think are undervalued for the total lot value, get some of the higher value cards graded, and then sell each part of the lot piece by piece. This is nothing new, and a pretty common strategy used by others also. However, I have been looking into coins the past few months and was working on starting a type collection. However, the classic coins are obscenely expensive. Just buying a single graded uncirculated pre-Morgan silver dollar can easily cost multiple thousand and not even be a rare date. It seems more difficult to me, but the overall value of coin auctions is many, many multiple times that of sports cards, so a lot of people must think that coin collecting is doing just fine for them. >>
This is not really an answer to your question, but a personal observation/experience. I have been doing more with cards than coins in part because of what you said. The prices for the kind of coins I like to collect, mainly silver dollars, has gone up to the point I cannot actively collect like I used to. That took much of the enjoyment away for me. I get a lot more activity and enjoyment from collecting cards now.
<< <i>
<< <i>You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
1. "Taxes are higher"-higher than what?
2. What deductions did the ACA take away? >>
You can look them up yourselves on Google, no one is hiding this info. A couple of examples is the 3.8% tax on capitals gains. This is on top of the normal capital gains tax. Another tax is the additional 0.9% Medicare tax on incomes over $250K.
As for deductions, most of the usual ones I take (for job related expense like a cell phone) were subject to a 2% AGI min. That virtually eliminates the deductions since it was done on a per deduction basis and not a total deduction basis.
I do my own taxes so I could see the 2012 and 2013 differences in what I was allowed to take.
I find it funny that people think they know what is "fair" for what other people should pay in taxes. I see these politicians complaining about millionaires and corporations avoiding taxes and justification for passing these laws. If that is the problem, why not start the higher taxes at $1 MM/year? Most of the tax increases start at $250K for a married couples. However you can't get the people angry at households with two working college educated adults, so you need to lump them in with the hedge fund managers.
Also I know that there ares some people on this board that are having hard times. But to be in this hobby takes disposable income. When 30-40 year old boxes of cardboard routinely sell out at hundreds even thousands of dollars, I don't think there is an money problem. I would venture to guess that most people here aren't waiting for a check on the 1st and 15th. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>You can talk about all the historical taxes you want to, but taxes are higher and the new ACA laws took away many deductions (a hidden tax increase) I used to have. I didn't use any more govt benefits in 2013 than I did in 2012. So someone else got the benefit. To me that is redistribution. >>
1. "Taxes are higher"-higher than what?
2. What deductions did the ACA take away? >>
You can look them up yourselves on Google, no one is hiding this info. A couple of examples is the 3.8% tax on capitals gains. This is on top of the normal capital gains tax. Another tax is the additional 0.9% Medicare tax on incomes over $250K.
As for deductions, most of the usual ones I take (for job related expense like a cell phone) were subject to a 2% AGI min. That virtually eliminates the deductions since it was done on a per deduction basis and not a total deduction basis.
I do my own taxes so I could see the 2012 and 2013 differences in what I was allowed to take.
I find it funny that people think they know what is "fair" for what other people should pay in taxes. I see these politicians complaining about millionaires and corporations avoiding taxes and justification for passing these laws. If that is the problem, why not start the higher taxes at $1 MM/year? Most of the tax increases start at $250K for a married couples. However you can't get the people angry at households with two working college educated adults, so you need to lump them in with the hedge fund managers.
Also I know that there ares some people on this board that are having hard times. But to be in this hobby takes disposable income. When 30-40 year old boxes of cardboard routinely sell out at hundreds even thousands of dollars, I don't think there is an money problem. I would venture to guess that most people here aren't waiting for a check on the 1st and 15th. >>
You still have not said what taxes are higher than. They are lower than they were Reagan. Miscellaneous expenses have had to exceed 2% of AGI for many years. What did the ACA change in re that? I do not believe that your father paid $300,000 on a $900,000 stock sale unless he does not know what he is doing-which is unlikely. It would be hard to owe $300,000 on a $900,000 profit.