86 Fleer Basketball Box versus 86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10

Doublestriker

After reading the latest post about the 86 Fleer Basketball Box it got me thinking. About two years ago I had the opportunity to buy a 86 Fleer Basketball Wax Box for about 12K but did not pull the trigger. At last years National I bought a PSA 10 Jordan Rookie for 9,500.00. After comparing the investment of both I thought the psa 10 was best way to go. I know all you unopened collectors will disagree but let's look at the comparisons. If you by a box the chances of getting a psa 10 Jordan are very very slim. Even if you get several psa 9's in some of the key rookie cards and a few psa 10's you still would not get anywhere near the 12K-14K it will cost you for the box(if you can find one). As much as I love unopened just like a lot of you it just does not make sense from a financial/investment standpoint. Thoughts?

slum22

Congratulations on the PSA 10 Jordan. I think that is the iconic card of the last 25-30 years. That said, I am on the side of unopened. I think the value of the unopened box has already risen at a rate greater than the PSA 10 and I think it undoubtedly continues to rise at a higher rate than the card. As has been discussed many times on these boards the value of the unopened box is only partially tied to the actual expected value of the break. In your example you say you would have to hit numerous PSA 9 Jordans (or other low Pop or HOF RC 10's) to get back the value of the $12k. Breaking the box is not where the value of unopened is for premium product like this example. I absolutely believe you are correct. Buying this box to open, in most cases is a losing proposition, as you would almost have to hit a Jordan PSA 10 to break even. The premium that people pay for unopened is largely only kept by keeping the product unopened. If you manage to keep the product intact, I would be willing to bet that the box only continues to rise. As the saying goes. PSA 10's can only go up in population over time and unopened can generally only go down in population over time.

esquiresports

I own primarily unopened. Just a few graded cards. This is a difficult call even for me. I may be, surprisingly, a little biased against wax because (1) I saw so much of it and (2) it is so easily searchable in pack form without tampering with the packs. That said, it's one of the most fun packs to rip. You rarely get a complete bust of a pack.

bigdcards

I also think the value of a true box from that set is valuable well beyond its parts. You can look at the top card and see if there is a jordan in the pack. I don't see how packs can be such a great investment with that being the case. A untampered box has either 3 or 4 Jordans every time. I regret not buying a pack from the group rips when I had the chance. It would have been a random pack. I suspect most graded packs are not random and raw packs are a terrible idea with that set.

Having said that, this is a win win situation and you picked up the premiere card of the decade and a top card of the hobby. If the values were the same and always would be the same, which would you rather own?

Doublestriker

You make a good point about the scarcity of the box but isn't the cards in the box ultimately what gives it value? This is one thing that I have never understood about unopened pricing. Would love to hear opinions from all of the unopened collector's.

Dusto

Assuming the box is legit and has been unsearched, in my mind it is a no-brainer that the packs must be opened. Even if a Jordan 10 isn't pulled, you will be roughly getting 3 of every card in the set (including stickers) and the possibilities could be endless if it is a well centered box. Granted, I personally look at cards more from the fun factor point of view regardless of cost than investment opportunities, but I certainly understand and respect the investment aspect of things in relation to price. I once opened a box of Desert Shield and I loved the fact that each card in every pack had potential value prior to opening it, as opposed to ripping junk wax (which I love to do), and there are only a few cards in a box that are worth more than any grading fees.

bigdcards

<< <i>You make a good point about the scarcity of the box but isn't the cards in the box ultimately what gives it value? This is one thing that I have never understood about unopened pricing. Would love to hear opinions from all of the unopened collector's. >>



Sometimes cards matter and sometimes it's just the scarcity of the unopened product. But in most cases both play a part and I think this is one of those cases.

If a pack is rare enough to the point where the unopened guys want it more than the people ripping, then the cards start to have less and less importance. I think it's clearer in non-sport. I have packs that I'm not sure what the cards look like and don't care to find out. The packs I have from the TV series the untouchables and kung-fu are packs I really like, but I can't imagine the cards would interest me and I don't know what the sets look like. But if people want the cards inside they still need to compete with my bids for the packs that are out there. That changes the value and at some point no one interested in just the cards will even look at the packs.

But I think people have taken this concept a little too far of late. We can look at '73 baseball to see one of many clear cut cases that show when the cards do matter. A 5th series pack is more valuable than the others and it's because of the chance that there is a Schmidt RC in there. In part it becomes more rare because people will just rip it looking for the Schmidt if the price is too low, but it's also fun to know the pack might have the big card. When I look through my packs I consider the key rookies and what might be inside. It's not everything, but it's something.

Back to this box... It's a Jordan RC, of course it matters! But we have a situation where most packs being sold on their own don't have a chance at a Jordan and packs from whole boxes do. Imagine that you have 2 stacks of '86 fleer bk packs to sell and one is in a box marked "Guranteed Unopened pack with no Jordan inside" and the other says "on average, 1 in 11 of these unopened packs will have a Jordan RC". What do you think the difference in price would be? With the box described in the OP, you have 36 packs from the good stack and all these packs from the bad stack are still selling for $300+. So the scarcity of the random packs is major, but the potential for the Jordan is the driving factor.


Edit to add that it would be great to see a scan of this Jordan 10 we are talking about.

Doublestriker

[URL=http://s1252.photobucket.com/user/doublestriker1/media/JordanRookiePSA10_zpsf763f80a.jpg.html][/URL]
You make a lot of good points. I just think unopened has went crazy lately but I guess it has a lot to do with overall scarcity of product.

CSUrunandstun

There is a Jordan PSA 10 on Ebay now (Probstein, I think?), but I really dont like the look of the top left corner...looks really soft/touched (for a PSA 10).

burke23

if you are buying a 10, that's the type of example to get. Not a spec of white, and dead nuts centered. Well done.

bigdcards

<< <i>if you are buying a 10, that's the type of example to get. Not a spec of white, and dead nuts centered. Well done. >>



+1

Great card!

mtcards

Some random thoughts....


Most unopened boxes are worth significantly more than the cards within. Compare 1982-1986 Topps Baseball. The value of a full set, which you wont get is far less (many times so), than the actual value of a box.


Secondly, the number of PSA 10 Jordan's will either stay steady or increase as the years go by. The number of unopened 86-87 Fleer will always continue to decrease (legit ones anyway)


Either, I think will go up in value, however, the packs will be the only one of the two to grow in scarcity. I would be happy to own either

mattyc_collection

It all depends on what one likes to collect.

I personally don't collect for investment purposes, and don't think either piece will ever allow one to retire or buy a yacht, but given (A) that there are many more single card collectors than unopened collectors, and (B) the certainty of a PSA 10 versus the two levels of uncertainty of unopened (1: is it really sealed and 2: what lies within), I would go with the PSA 10 all day every day. Easier to find a buyer/appeals to a broader market, and it is a known quantity. The amount of high-profile packs that were later deemed bad would give me pause on any high-end unopened. Whereas in stark contrast, I don't see many fake cards making it into PSA slabs.

rtimmer

Fabulous card for sure, congrats! I would much rather have that card to look at and enjoy personally, but if you're wanting the best investment I would go with the unopened box. It's a high class problem to choose between them for sure.

jordangretzkyfan

You pose a great question and there have been many sound points of view. I love the Jordan rookie...it is my favorite card of all time. You have an outstanding 10 that is truly a card to envy. Thanks for sharing the pic. If I had to choose only one in my collection, then I would chose the PSA 10 since no collection is complete without the greatest player of all time. The visual appeal of this card cannot be denied and it is poetic that he is rising above everyone in this photo.

That said, from an investment/value standpoint I would choose the box every time. It is simply supply and demand. I can find a PSA 10 Jordan rookie on eBay every day of the year, but a legit box comes up for purchase about once every 2-3 years. There are simply not enough boxes to come anywhere close to demand. This is why in the past 3 years the price of the box has doubled to $20,000 while the PSA 10 has remained at $10,000. Everytime a pack is opened, there are more singles and less unopened. The supply of wax will never go up which is why unopened will always be king on high demand packs. Lets face it, aside from 1952 Topps baseball there is not a more in demand pack.

Net, if given $12,000 at the time...I would have bought the box and negotiated a high end 8 to go with it. Then you would have the insanely rare box and a centered copy to stare at. Regardless, you have a perfect Jordan rookie that all will envy!

elsnorto

<< <i>You make a good point about the scarcity of the box but isn't the cards in the box ultimately what gives it value? >>



You are trying to apply common sense to a hobby where some wouldn't spend $0.25 for a 1980's common, but will spend hundreds for a $0.25 1980's low pop common in a PSA 10 slab.

Or taking a Walter Payton autographed item selling at $100, cutting it up, putting it on a card numbered to 100, and it magically becomes a $500 item (even though it looks worse!).

But one needn't look within this hobby to understand how much some collectors value the scarcity of unopened items irregardless of the value contained within. Look at Star Wars figures or vintage toys/games for example.

The value is just as much (and often more) in the nostalgia, novelty, or scarcity than actual contents.

Snorto~

Doublestriker

Figuring out the mind of an unopened collector can be dangerous!

BLUEJAYWAY

My own view/theory is no matter how high the unopened box price gets bumped up in value, where would you get your ROI, unless the indivdual card values rise to be near the cost to buy the box. The individual prices becoming the equal to the unopened box price. The value is driven/derived for the unopened box by the "mystery" aspect-what could be in it and the fact it may be one of the few surviving unsearched boxes. For however many boxes are out there still in their original state that remain that way, due to such a high buy in,can only help raise the value of the existing 10's. High demand/low poppage for a 10, along with no more OPENED supply. So if I was the proud owner of a 10 I would want the box prices to soar even more, as this should assist in it staying unopened, and is the most likely way that buyer will make the most $$$ by selling it to the next buyer, by NOT opening it. To me this scenario almost ensures the likelihood that at such a high price they probably will never be opened. I know I wouldn't open it especially if I already had a 10. This would protect the value of the 10's-less in circulation/with high demand. Best of both worlds. Of course there are as yet a number of 86 Jordans to be submitted for grading. This could skew the number of 10's, but this thread dealt with the unopened to a 10 Jordan comparison.

Cakes

Thanks for the very nice PSA 10 example. It helps me when I look at the PSA 9 examples.

I would go with the unopened box everytime, it's high stakes gambling for many who buy expensive unopened just to wrip them later on.