Your whole premise really is pretty foolish, and wishful thinking at best.
Ichiro averaged 20 Home Runs per 162 games in Japan. I just wanted to point that out. If it weren't important to hit home runs in Japan, then why did he choose to hit 20 per season there....and only 9 per season here? What changed his philosophy?
His ability did. He wasn't good enough to hit 20 homers a year in the states. Had he tried, then it would have been at the expense of his batting average, contact rate, and on base skills. In the end, he would end up the same hitter he is now...just through different means.
If he were capable of averaging a .350 AVG, .420 OB%, and .522 SLG% in MLB, he would have. He certainly tried to do that in Japan
He sits where he belongs as measured by the best measurements. >>
Well according to you the Japanese league is nothing but the minors to major-league baseball. Why does his performance suddenly have a one-to-one correlation with his performance here in the states?
Like I said before, Ichiro gave up five years of his prime to play in Japan. With the substantially easier pitching in that league it is easy to see how he would reach 20 home runs.
Japan 384 BB to 333 SO ratio. Equaling 65 walks per 162 games. USA 544 BB to 876 SO ratio. Equaling 43 walks per 162 games.
So he was walking more over there too.
He just doesn't have the ability to hit at that elite level in MLB, or he would have.
He is unique, and I admire the uniqueness and skill set too...and all-around he is a good player(even though defensive measurements can be taken with a grain of salt or about 66% validity). I get that.
But his hitting is so overblown, it is ridiculous. Those hitting measurements hover in the 95% validity area(something unique in sports to baseball hitting).
Because you are claiming he didn't hit for power and OB% in the states because you said he is taught not too.
He certainly tried to in Japan, so obviously, your claim really doesn't have merit....well at least when you claim that is the reason why his OB% and SLG% are low in MLB.
Not my claim that Japan is a minor league...it just really is.
He missed five years of being a pinch hitter/part time player. Go ahead and add that to his MLB resume.
Or, he may have missed two 119 OPS+ years. Another 110 OPS+ season...and two 97 and 94 OPS+ seasons....equaling an average of about 108. He currently sits at 111.
So yeah, he gets credit for a little more longevity there, no denying that.
In the best measurements, add those five years, and he probably goes from 400th best all-time to maybe 329th?
and if Japan players are taught to NOT draw walks and hit home runs.....
Then how come Hideki Matsui averaged 42 HR and 108 BB per 162 games in Japan?
And since he won Three MVP awards in Japan, and was a 9x All Star I would have to say that those skills are desirable in Japan.
Ichiro didn't have a high OPS+ in the states, not for your wishful reasoning....but because that simply was his level of hitting ability at that level of play.
<< <i>NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish. >>
How many players in high school can hit Major League pitching? If you really believe Ichiro was unable to hit Major League pitching at any point before he first played in America you are severely underrating his baseball career >>
You make no sense. Ichiro hit .188 in Japan when he was 19...that is any point prior to MLB, correct? >>
What I wrote was badly worded -- but your ability to evade the main point is noted
<< <i>You want to give Ichiro OPS+ 120 credit as a 20 year old if he were in MLB, simply because he did that art age 27 in his first year in the states, and excelled in a minor league prior to that. A terribly unfounded assumption you are making. He would NEVER get a shot in MLB at that age with his poor on base skills and poor power skills. >>
Or perhaps you just like to make up straw man arguments for anything. Because he hit well at age 27, I believe there were years before age 27 he also could have hit well. That's true for the vast majority of players in Major League history -- especially players with skills that last as long as his have
<< <i>Like I said, Wade Boggs was a light years better hitter, he started MLB at age 24, so a more logical assumption is that if an inferior hitter like Ichiro is thought to be able to do as good at a young age....then Boggs should have had no problem doing it at age 19 himself.
Do that same exercise for every MLB that was better than Ichiro....and add all those plus years to them too. It is only fair. It is dumb and not realistic, just as it is dumb and not realistic for Ichiro. >>
Boggs had a career ops of .858, Ichiro has a career ops of .775. Before turning 27 Boggs had an ops of .876 -- so if Ichiro and Boggs had the exact same career arc, Ichiro was capable of hitting Major League pitching before 2001
<< <i>I wish he had come earlier...he would have been a pinch hitter/part time player for five years on Seattle >>
If the Mariners were smart enough to give him playing time that went to weak players like Eric Anthony and Vince Coleman and Keith Miller he would have done a lot more than that
<< <i> If the Mariners were smart enough to give him playing time that went to weak players like Eric Anthony and Vince Coleman and Keith Miller he would have done a lot more than that >>
He would have gotten part time playing , not five years full-time.
If you look at his career arc, he is out of his prime now, and his last three seasons have seen an OPS+ of 86. He would have 'out of prime' years in the beginning of his career as well, just like truly elite hitters do.
Given that the truly elite hitters don't get full time jobs till about age 22, and that their age 23 and earlier performances are well off their peak performances, I don't see how Ichiro gets FIVE years of peak performances all the way down to age 22, like you and others try to do.
If you are insisting he gets seven years of credit, then he gets credit for 'out of prime' seasons at the beginning. Looking at his out of prime seasons now, we get a very good idea how good of a hitter he is when not in his prime:
Age 20 OPS+ 68...cup of coffee season(maybe 65 at bats) Age 21 OPS+ 78....more part time(maybe 200 at bats) Age 22 OPS+ 86 Age 23 OPS+ 91 Age 24 OPS+111 Age 25 OPS+ 119 Age 26 OPS+ 119
Age 27-29 prime OPS+ 119
THat is assuming Ichiro even gets drafted to begin with if starting in the States, or that he even breaks the major leagues to begin with...or that he continues to be given a shot when he is 'punching' his way with no power at young age, when teams need more than that(and he has no big contract to assure he gets a real shot).
Still makes him the most overrated hitter ever, especially when fans call his 262 hit season "one of the greatest ever." If by greatest, they mean the 3,087th best season ever, then he isn't overrated....but I suspect they mean top 100 type season.
The career arc stuff is always interesting. For the gentleman that compared Ichiro to Rose(and to help highlight the missing years difference), from age 27-39, Pete Rose's OPS+ was 129. Ichiro's 111, which also happens to be from age 27-39(his time in MLB).
That is a big difference, and Rose tends to be rated a little too high as a hitter himself.
Now keep in mind that Pete Rose went on to add another 3,000 plate appearances after age 39!! Looking how Ichiro's OPS+ the last three years was 86....imagine what another 3,000 plate appearances of an OPS+ of 77, is going to do to his career total if you wish to compare him to Rose
Feel free to add the missing career arc above to that too.
After going through this thead, a few guys have gone out of their way to show that Ichiro is the most overrated hitter as ever. You even have one guy claiming he is as good as Ted Williams(but chooses not to be as good), lol.
His missing years are all accounted for, and he moves from 439th to 387th(approximate of course).
Since there are guys ranking him in the top 100(or higher)....I don't think we will ever find a hitter ranked 300+ spots too high.
I see why you are claiming Rose is better than Cobb...because you also felt Ichiro was better than Rose, LOL! Your entire motive is to claim Ichiro as one of the best hitters ever...and as pointed out in this thread and others, he isn't remotely close to Rose, nor to Cobb, nor to any of the best ever.
Sorry buddy.
He is lucky he started his career in the Japan, as if he had went to some High School in Michigan, he probably doesn't even get drafted. Most likely he lost two or three years as full time 115 OPS+ hitter in the big leagues, and another two years as a 98 OPS+ hitter in the big leagues(if he was lucky).
As it sits, his best five year stretch, or ten year stretch, doesn't even compare to Rose's, so we do not have to guess how well each would have done...we saw, and Ichiro wasn't close to Rose.
Rose wasn't close to Cobb.
You made foolish assumptions about Japan ball, and as pointed out, they were assumptions based purely on trying to vault Ichiro higher, because those assumptions were wrong.
<< <i>Overrated=Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan. Both were great players, both are overrated. >>
How is Nolan Ryan overrated? Is it because he had offensive support like that of the present day Astros?
I'm no Ryan fanatic, but it always makes me wonder how someone thinks Ryan is overrated. >>
Some people argue that he is the greatest pitcher of all time. They point to the Ks and the BA against. OTOH his OBP against barely cracks the top 300 all time. His winning % is 546th all time. The name of the game is winning. His Ks and longevity made him a HOFer, but he is not at the very top. His WAR is 20th all time among pitchers, driven in large part by the length of his career.
<< <i>Overrated=Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan. Both were great players, both are overrated. >>
How is Nolan Ryan overrated? Is it because he had offensive support like that of the present day Astros?
I'm no Ryan fanatic, but it always makes me wonder how someone thinks Ryan is overrated. >>
Some people argue that he is the greatest pitcher of all time. They point to the Ks and the BA against. OTOH his OBP against barely cracks the top 300 all time. His winning % is 546th all time. The name of the game is winning. His Ks and longevity made him a HOFer, but he is not at the very top. His WAR is 20th all time among pitchers, driven in large part by the length of his career. >>
I'm not saying Ryan IS a top all-time pitcher, but W-L record is a very misleading way to evaluate the worth of a pitcher. His career ERA (3.19 in 5,400 IP) is pretty good. WHIP and ERA+ less so. I'd agree that his Ks (and the no-hitters) are the primary reason he is in the HOF, though.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Comments
<< <i>JSH,
Your whole premise really is pretty foolish, and wishful thinking at best.
Ichiro averaged 20 Home Runs per 162 games in Japan. I just wanted to point that out. If it weren't important to hit home runs in Japan, then why did he choose to hit 20 per season there....and only 9 per season here? What changed his philosophy?
His ability did. He wasn't good enough to hit 20 homers a year in the states. Had he tried, then it would have been at the expense of his batting average, contact rate, and on base skills. In the end, he would end up the same hitter he is now...just through different means.
If he were capable of averaging a .350 AVG, .420 OB%, and .522 SLG% in MLB, he would have. He certainly tried to do that in Japan
He sits where he belongs as measured by the best measurements. >>
Well according to you the Japanese league is nothing but the minors to major-league baseball. Why does his performance suddenly have a one-to-one correlation with his performance here in the states?
Like I said before, Ichiro gave up five years of his prime to play in Japan. With the substantially easier pitching in that league it is easy to see how he would reach 20 home runs.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
Japan 384 BB to 333 SO ratio. Equaling 65 walks per 162 games.
USA 544 BB to 876 SO ratio. Equaling 43 walks per 162 games.
So he was walking more over there too.
He just doesn't have the ability to hit at that elite level in MLB, or he would have.
He is unique, and I admire the uniqueness and skill set too...and all-around he is a good player(even though defensive measurements can be taken with a grain of salt or about 66% validity). I get that.
But his hitting is so overblown, it is ridiculous. Those hitting measurements hover in the 95% validity area(something unique in sports to baseball hitting).
He certainly tried to in Japan, so obviously, your claim really doesn't have merit....well at least when you claim that is the reason why his OB% and SLG% are low in MLB.
Not my claim that Japan is a minor league...it just really is.
He missed five years of being a pinch hitter/part time player. Go ahead and add that to his MLB resume.
Or, he may have missed two 119 OPS+ years. Another 110 OPS+ season...and two 97 and 94 OPS+ seasons....equaling an average of about 108. He currently sits at 111.
So yeah, he gets credit for a little more longevity there, no denying that.
In the best measurements, add those five years, and he probably goes from 400th best all-time to maybe 329th?
Then how come Hideki Matsui averaged 42 HR and 108 BB per 162 games in Japan?
And since he won Three MVP awards in Japan, and was a 9x All Star I would have to say that those skills are desirable in Japan.
Ichiro didn't have a high OPS+ in the states, not for your wishful reasoning....but because that simply was his level of hitting ability at that level of play.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish. >>
How many players in high school can hit Major League pitching? If you really believe Ichiro was unable to hit Major League pitching at any point before he first played in America you are severely underrating his baseball career >>
You make no sense. Ichiro hit .188 in Japan when he was 19...that is any point prior to MLB, correct? >>
What I wrote was badly worded -- but your ability to evade the main point is noted
<< <i>You want to give Ichiro OPS+ 120 credit as a 20 year old if he were in MLB, simply because he did that art age 27 in his first year in the states, and excelled in a minor league prior to that. A terribly unfounded assumption you are making. He would NEVER get a shot in MLB at that age with his poor on base skills and poor power skills. >>
Or perhaps you just like to make up straw man arguments for anything. Because he hit well at age 27, I believe there were years before age 27 he also could have hit well. That's true for the vast majority of players in Major League history -- especially players with skills that last as long as his have
<< <i>Like I said, Wade Boggs was a light years better hitter, he started MLB at age 24, so a more logical assumption is that if an inferior hitter like Ichiro is thought to be able to do as good at a young age....then Boggs should have had no problem doing it at age 19 himself.
Do that same exercise for every MLB that was better than Ichiro....and add all those plus years to them too. It is only fair. It is dumb and not realistic, just as it is dumb and not realistic for Ichiro. >>
Boggs had a career ops of .858, Ichiro has a career ops of .775. Before turning 27 Boggs had an ops of .876 -- so if Ichiro and Boggs had the exact same career arc, Ichiro was capable of hitting Major League pitching before 2001
<< <i>I wish he had come earlier...he would have been a pinch hitter/part time player for five years on Seattle >>
If the Mariners were smart enough to give him playing time that went to weak players like Eric Anthony and Vince Coleman and Keith Miller he would have done a lot more than that
<< <i>
If the Mariners were smart enough to give him playing time that went to weak players like Eric Anthony and Vince Coleman and Keith Miller he would have done a lot more than that >>
He would have gotten part time playing
If you look at his career arc, he is out of his prime now, and his last three seasons have seen an OPS+ of 86. He would have 'out of prime' years in the beginning of his career as well, just like truly elite hitters do.
Given that the truly elite hitters don't get full time jobs till about age 22, and that their age 23 and earlier performances are well off their peak performances, I don't see how Ichiro gets FIVE years of peak performances all the way down to age 22, like you and others try to do.
If you are insisting he gets seven years of credit, then he gets credit for 'out of prime' seasons at the beginning. Looking at his out of prime seasons now, we get a very good idea how good of a hitter he is when not in his prime:
Age 20 OPS+ 68...cup of coffee season(maybe 65 at bats)
Age 21 OPS+ 78....more part time(maybe 200 at bats)
Age 22 OPS+ 86
Age 23 OPS+ 91
Age 24 OPS+111
Age 25 OPS+ 119
Age 26 OPS+ 119
Age 27-29 prime OPS+ 119
THat is assuming Ichiro even gets drafted to begin with if starting in the States, or that he even breaks the major leagues to begin with...or that he continues to be given a shot when he is 'punching' his way with no power at young age, when teams need more than that(and he has no big contract to assure he gets a real shot).
Still makes him the most overrated hitter ever, especially when fans call his 262 hit season "one of the greatest ever." If by greatest, they mean the 3,087th best season ever, then he isn't overrated....but I suspect they mean top 100 type season.
That is a big difference, and Rose tends to be rated a little too high as a hitter himself.
Now keep in mind that Pete Rose went on to add another 3,000 plate appearances after age 39!! Looking how Ichiro's OPS+ the last three years was 86....imagine what another 3,000 plate appearances of an OPS+ of 77, is going to do to his career total if you wish to compare him to Rose
Feel free to add the missing career arc above to that too.
After going through this thead, a few guys have gone out of their way to show that Ichiro is the most overrated hitter as ever. You even have one guy claiming he is as good as Ted Williams(but chooses not to be as good), lol.
His missing years are all accounted for, and he moves from 439th to 387th(approximate of course).
Since there are guys ranking him in the top 100(or higher)....I don't think we will ever find a hitter ranked 300+ spots too high.
Making him the most overrated hitter ever.
I see why you are claiming Rose is better than Cobb...because you also felt Ichiro was better than Rose, LOL! Your entire motive is to claim Ichiro as one of the best hitters ever...and as pointed out in this thread and others, he isn't remotely close to Rose, nor to Cobb, nor to any of the best ever.
Sorry buddy.
He is lucky he started his career in the Japan, as if he had went to some High School in Michigan, he probably doesn't even get drafted. Most likely he lost two or three years as full time 115 OPS+ hitter in the big leagues, and another two years as a 98 OPS+ hitter in the big leagues(if he was lucky).
As it sits, his best five year stretch, or ten year stretch, doesn't even compare to Rose's, so we do not have to guess how well each would have done...we saw, and Ichiro wasn't close to Rose.
Rose wasn't close to Cobb.
You made foolish assumptions about Japan ball, and as pointed out, they were assumptions based purely on trying to vault Ichiro higher, because those assumptions were wrong.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
<< <i>Overrated=Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan. Both were great players, both are overrated. >>
How is Nolan Ryan overrated? Is it because he had offensive support like that of the present day Astros?
I'm no Ryan fanatic, but it always makes me wonder how someone thinks Ryan is overrated.
<< <i>
<< <i>Overrated=Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan. Both were great players, both are overrated. >>
How is Nolan Ryan overrated? Is it because he had offensive support like that of the present day Astros?
I'm no Ryan fanatic, but it always makes me wonder how someone thinks Ryan is overrated. >>
Some people argue that he is the greatest pitcher of all time. They point to the Ks and the BA against. OTOH his OBP against barely cracks the top 300 all time. His winning % is 546th all time. The name of the game is winning. His Ks and longevity made him a HOFer, but he is not at the very top. His WAR is 20th all time among pitchers, driven in large part by the length of his career.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Overrated=Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan. Both were great players, both are overrated. >>
How is Nolan Ryan overrated? Is it because he had offensive support like that of the present day Astros?
I'm no Ryan fanatic, but it always makes me wonder how someone thinks Ryan is overrated. >>
Some people argue that he is the greatest pitcher of all time. They point to the Ks and the BA against. OTOH his OBP against barely cracks the top 300 all time. His winning % is 546th all time. The name of the game is winning. His Ks and longevity made him a HOFer, but he is not at the very top. His WAR is 20th all time among pitchers, driven in large part by the length of his career. >>
I'm not saying Ryan IS a top all-time pitcher, but W-L record is a very misleading way to evaluate the worth of a pitcher. His career ERA (3.19 in 5,400 IP) is pretty good. WHIP and ERA+ less so. I'd agree that his Ks (and the no-hitters) are the primary reason he is in the HOF, though.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.