Definition of "overrated"?
1985fan
Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
Who can answer what it means to be overrated? A certain poster who shall remain nameless suggested Ichiro is the most overrated hitter in MLB history, without mentioning what overrated means, how we decide proper rating, or how one would 'properly' rate Ichiro.
It reminds me of the idea of a player being called 'clutch'. All it is is a term for the intellectually vapid to throw around that makes them feel like their opinion has weight when its a term that is essentially meaningless.
It reminds me of the idea of a player being called 'clutch'. All it is is a term for the intellectually vapid to throw around that makes them feel like their opinion has weight when its a term that is essentially meaningless.
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Start by putting Ichiro where YOU rate him all-time as a hitter, then we can see exactly how much he is overrated.
Some poster said, "Best Hitter," which would mean at the very top.
Another poster put him one slot behind Ty Cobb, which also be near the very top.
So, if those two posters have him in the top ten, then they have him appx 350 spots overrated.
Other people typically put him in the top 50, which would put him appx 300 spots overrated.
Can you find another hitter that is repeatedly rated that many spots higher than where he belongs?
But for once, why don't YOU put him where he rates as a hitter, instead of just doing double talk?
Are you afraid to rate him too high, because then it will support your homerism? Or are you afraid to rate him too low, because it would pain you to rate a guy you hero worship that low? Either way you are screwed, and that is why you won't rate him.
If you can find other hitters that are consistently rated 300-350 spots too high, then I will agree that he is not the most overrated hitter of all-time, just a guy rated appx 300-350 spots higher than he belongs.
The measure of the runs a hitter creates with his bat are found with analytical tools that are precisely valid, and that are uniquely accurate to baseball hitting in sports.
There are a few different measurements that are the most valid and precise.
A combination and weighing of each of those measurements will show where he ranks as a hitter.
Then you can determine if you want to measure a players peak or their career to deem their measure of hitting ability, as both of those will have different meanings and results. You can then either do two separate lists, Peak or Career, or do a combination of both.
You can also do 3 yr peak, 5 yr peak, 8 yr peak. Either consecutive year peak, or top season peak, and have more.
So that is a lot of information to be provided, based on the multiple and precise advanced hitting measurements.
Before all that is done, YOU(axtell) can rate the top 450 hitters all-time. Since it isn't realistic to have every baseball fan do that rating, you probably will only get a sampling, so it may not be truly accurate to claim "most overrated all-time," and I can't argue that.
However, it would be very easy for YOU and other homer fans to rate him, and he may very well end up being just a guy 350 spots rated too high.
Then we will have to see if we can truly find anyone that is rated 350 spots to high(which I have never seen mentioned yet...even Jim Rice who is often overrated, isn't remotely rated that many spots too high as Ichiro is).
PS: There are other measurements that don't measure a players run value, or run creating ability, and are invalid(especially invalid in giving the proper weights to each offensive event, BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, out made, etc..). The use of such invalid measurement tools are about as meaningful as measuring who has a prettier swing or better looking toe nails.
YOU need to solve this. Stop trying to create strawmen arguments why it's YOU who needs to figure it out.
All the info is there. I already know it, and the answers where he rates.
I read the boards, and I see where you and others rate him, and it is pretty evident where the general population rates him as a hitter. When that is compared with where he truly rates....there you go!
I've never seen a hitter rated appx 350 spots too high...and as consistently rated that much too high.
Most overrated hitter ever....until others are found to be rated as absurdly too high.
Ax, I've been around the sports block, and have had these discussions so many times, and that was pre-internet. Now I get to have more on the internet...and based on all of that, I have not seen anyone make the claims as are made with Ichiro.
Jim Rice is usually the man overrated by so many people...but he is a much better hitter than Ichiro, so even if someone rated Rice as the best all-time, it still wouldn't be as far off as Ichiro being rated as high as he does.
You do make the boards more fun, I will give you that. Certainly is more fun, and you play that role well.
<< <i>You don't think you could find tons of Yankee fans no who think Jeter is the best hitter of all time? >>
I doubt you could find many, if ANY, that would make this claim. Yankees fans are well aware of the names Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, and Dimaggio.
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Ralph
<< <i>
<< <i>You don't think you could find tons of Yankee fans no who think Jeter is the best hitter of all time? >>
I doubt you could find many, if ANY, that would make this claim. Yankees fans are well aware of the names Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, and Dimaggio. >>
if you don't think there's an entire generation of fans who worship Jeter as the best if all time and who couldn't care less about the history of the team then I would like to sell you a bridge.
<< <i>The measure of the runs a hitter creates with his bat are found with analytical tools that are precisely valid, and that are uniquely accurate to baseball hitting in sports. >>
Are these tools precise enough to account for facing different pitchers during the years Ichiro played outside of North America? Or do you simply ignore those years? If you ignore a full five years when he was a valuable hitter, you are severely underrating him.
AS a long time Yankee fan I do consider Jeter one of the all time greats (by far not the greatest) and hitter.
Winfield, Boggs, Reggie ect have an argument on being a better hitter than Jeter.
Ichiro , the man on this disscussion is Yankee. In his prime I'll take Donny Baseball over Jeter at the plate (and Ichiro).
Hpothetical: 7th game of world series. 2 outs in the bottom of 9th. Down 2 runs. bases loaded (this avoids a potential base on balls) who do you want up at the box:
Ichiro or Jeter?
My choice would be Jeter.
Getting back to that definition of 'clutch.'
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
<< <i>
<< <i>The measure of the runs a hitter creates with his bat are found with analytical tools that are precisely valid, and that are uniquely accurate to baseball hitting in sports. >>
Are these tools precise enough to account for facing different pitchers during the years Ichiro played outside of North America? Or do you simply ignore those years? If you ignore a full five years when he was a valuable hitter, you are severely underrating him. >>
One could add those years. One could also add all the minor league numbers for all the other hitters who got their seasoning there, instead of Japan, like Ichiro did.
You can assume what Ichiro would have done if he started his career in the states. You are assuming he would have five full years as an above average hitter in the states had he started there.
It is just as likely to assume that had he started in the states that he would have 1)Never been drafted to begin wtih, 2)Had struggled his first three years in the majors, dragging his numbers down more, or 3)Had a typical career path of breaking in MLB at age 23, have a subpar year, the next year an average one, then age 25-26 start to reach his prime, then hit his prime at age 27(the year he came to the states).
In the end, adding all those scenarios, he doesn't move up that much...and could have moved down.
<< <i>Ichiro was a very good baseball player before he turned 27. That is not an assumption >>
Wade Boggs was also a good player before he turned 24, and he had six good seasons in the Minor leagues to show that, and also showed it in MLB(where he was a light years better hitter than Ichiro, and right away too). If you are going to assume an inferior hitter like Ichiro would do so good in those missing seasons, then it is an EASY assumption to also assume that a superior hitter like Boggs would also do it
Like most players, there is a learning curve.
What do you think would happen when at age 22 if Ichiro puts up two years like these last two years he did, with horrible on base skills and horrible power, OPS+ 85, and no prior history to fall back on? You are assuming he even continues to be a starter. It is just as likely he gets lost in the shuffle and is out of MLB like ala Jerry Owens.
A corner outfielder with no power or on base skills most likely would have to wait until age 23-24 to even get a full-time shot at MLB, as he would have to prove his worth in AA and AAA first. That is a near certainty!
Ichiro may have had a couple 115-120 OPS seasons at age 24-26....and age 22-23 he is very likely to have some 78 or 84 OPS+ seasons like he is having now....equaling about 108-112 for those missing seasons, and he sits at 111 now.
PS. Had he arrived FIVE years earlier, he would have had Griffey in CF, Buhner in RF, and Martinez at DH. His job would be pinch hitter/pinch runner for FIVE years until Buhner lost it about the time Iricho arrived. There is your most likely scenario!!
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<< <i>If one considers transient Yankee players Jeter falls down the list of all time great Yankee hitters.
AS a long time Yankee fan I do consider Jeter one of the all time greats (by far not the greatest) and hitter.
Winfield, Boggs, Reggie ect have an argument on being a better hitter than Jeter.
Ichiro , the man on this disscussion is Yankee. In his prime I'll take Donny Baseball over Jeter at the plate (and Ichiro).
Hpothetical: 7th game of world series. 2 outs in the bottom of 9th. Down 2 runs. bases loaded (this avoids a potential base on balls) who do you want up at the box:
Ichiro or Jeter?
My choice would be Jeter.
Getting back to that definition of 'clutch.' >>
I'd like to have Edgar Martinez. Speaking of DHs......
He didn't miss JACK S*$T...instead, he got time to season his craft full-time, which ended up helping him achieve what he did when he did come.
In addition to the scenarios laid out above(like Wade Boggs minor league example)...time to put that 'missing seven years' fluff to rest in regard to Ichiro.
<< <i>Wade Boggs was also a good player before he turned 24, and he had six good seasons in the Minor leagues to show that, and also showed it in MLB(where he was a light years better hitter than Ichiro, and right away too). If you are going to assume an inferior hitter like Ichiro would do so good in those missing seasons, then it is an EASY assumption to also assume that a superior hitter like Boggs would also do it
Boggs was a very good hitter before reaching the Major Leagues (though probably not good enough as a teenager). So was Edgar Martinez among others. So were plenty of black players in the 30s, 40s and even the 1950s. Ted Williams was a great hitter even when he wasn't in the US. Those are not assumptions. That sort of mishandling happens. But almost never to the extent that a player is so good they are able to get paying time after age 40, but not before age 27. In all of baseball history, I think Raul Ibanez is the only one.
<< <i>Ichiro may have had a couple 115-120 OPS seasons at age 24-26....and age 22-23 he is very likely to have some 78 or 84 OPS+ seasons like he is having now....equaling about 108-112 for those missing seasons, and he sits at 111 now. >>
When Ichiro played his first Major League game, he was already a finished product and a very good player. There can be a wide range of ages it takes for players to reach a high level. For Ichiro, what clues are there that tell us when he reached that level? He was the best hitter in Japan pretty much ever year from age 20 through 26 -- with pretty much the same stats every year:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/26540
(also consider the PL had fewer runs per game than MLB)
There are 11 players in Major League history with over 2 500 games played and an OPS+ of between 110 and 120: Andre Dawson, Cal Ripken, Derek Jeter, Pete Rose, Darrell Evans, Robin Yount, Luis Gonzalez, Craig Biggio, Julio Franco and Graig Nettles. That's not a bad list of players to be a part of. Even if he's in the bottom half, that's still a very good career
(there's only four more over 100 and under 110, Lou Brock, Ivan Rodriguez, Brooks Robinson and Steve Finley)
<< <i>PS. Had Ichiro arrived FIVE years earlier, he would have had Griffey in CF, Buhner in RF, and Martinez at DH. His job would be pinch hitter/pinch runner/reserve for FIVE years until Buhner lost it about the time Iricho arrived. There is your most likely scenario!! He ends up starting full-time in MLB about the same time he actually did!
He didn't miss JACK S*$T...instead, he got time to season his craft full-time, which ended up helping him achieve what he did when he did come.
In addition to the scenarios laid out above(like Wade Boggs minor league example)...time to put that 'missing seven years' fluff to rest in regard to Ichiro. >>
You're delusional. If Ichiro decided to enter the league when he was younger, he would have been picked up by another team. Ichiro missed a solid 4 or 5 full seasons of MLB baseball. It's ignorant to assume he would've spent that time in the minors.
Ichiro had one of the most successful "rookie" seasons of any player in the history of the game. He won the MVP, ROY, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. He had 56 stolen bases and 242 hits. He made a joke out of American pitching. There is no way you can say he would've performed at a minor league level just one year prior.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>PS. Had Ichiro arrived FIVE years earlier, he would have had Griffey in CF, Buhner in RF, and Martinez at DH. His job would be pinch hitter/pinch runner/reserve for FIVE years until Buhner lost it about the time Iricho arrived. There is your most likely scenario!! He ends up starting full-time in MLB about the same time he actually did! >>
Why are you so sure the Mariners would have signed Buhner for $30 million if they had an arbitration eligible outfielder like Ichiro?
But this isn't about What If, this is about What Is. And just as Boggs was a great hitter before becoming Boston's regular third baseman, Ichiro was a great player before he became Seattle's starting right fielder
Wade Boggs, and all those other guys were finsihed products to prior to MLB too(and since they were BETTER than Ichiro, they could still be unfinished and be better than him), and all could have an increase in ranking, like you are giving Ichiro. So maybe they didn't have to wait till age 27, but 24 or 25 instead.
But if anyone is giving Ichiro that treatment, it has to be extended to ALL players who played in the minor leagues.
So giving Ichiro those two or three extra years of 119 OPS+(which was his first three years in MLB), he may move up a hundred slots and be 288th or something.
Give him two more years of medicore play, which puts him at five more years of 113 OPS+, he still doesn't move up any more.
Had he arrived five years prior, he would have been a pinch hitter/pinch runner for five years, because he would not have cracked the lineup. Corner outfielder with no power or on base skills don't crack lineups at age 20.
So no, Cnote, not delusional at all. That is what would happen to him.
Pinch hitter/pinch runner...especially on one of the few teams that would have even signed him.
No team would give him a starting job at age 20 in MLB. Heck, when he came to the states in Spring Training, there was concern of him being overpower and getting the bat knocked out of his hand! Of course, they paid money for him so he got a full chance. A 20 year old doing the same thing is an instant pointing to the Minor Leagues.
Finally, another easy way to alleviate that is to just like at his prime seasons, and only use prime seasons.
His best three year OPS+ run is 121
His best five year OPS+ run is 120
Compare that to all the other hitters in MLB, and you will come out with another high amount more that had better prime hitting years, and he will still fall somewhere around 300-400.
You see, it is the fact that people are overrating his hitting impact in his prime seasons. His prime seasons are simply not as good as people think. His best three year stretch of 121 OPS+ is really not anywhere elite hitting wise...not even close.
So, you don't even have to tackle the Japan thing.
He may fall even lower in prime year rankings.
<< <i>But if anyone is giving Ichiro that treatment, it has to be extended to ALL players who played in the minor leagues. >>
Only if they were able to hit Major League pitcher at a high level when they were still in the minors like Boggs was. Otherwise you may as well extend it to ALL players who played in Little League too
<< <i>Finally, another easy way to alleviate that is to just like at his prime seasons, and only use prime seasons.
His best three year OPS+ run is 121
His best five year OPS+ run is 120
Compare that to all the other hitters in MLB, and you will come out with another high amount more that had better prime hitting years, and he will still fall somewhere around 300-400.
You see, it is the fact that people are overrating his hitting impact in his prime seasons. His prime seasons are simply not as good as people think. His best three year stretch of 121 OPS+ is really not anywhere elite hitting wise...not even close. >>
Ichiro was not a truly elite hitter. Again, what has helped make him such a good baseball players was that he was a good hitter, great fielder, great base runner and extremely durable. Anytime those things are completely ignored he is being severely underrated
But again, a simple way around it is by looking at his prime seasons.
I hear all the time about Ichiro's 262 hit season....people rank that up there on an all-time basis.
You know what? If you were to rank all the best individual hitting seasons of all-time, Ichiro's season there(his best), wouldn't even crack the top 1,000!
There have been about 500 individual seasons where a player had an OPS+ of 164. Ichiro's was 130 that year. So I don't know how far down he would be...probably around 2,000th or even lower.
In the other better measurements it would be the same thing too.
So despite setting the hit record for the season, people will be aghast at the notion that the season wasn't anything remotely special at all(in terms of hitting ability and value).
A best three year peak of 121 OPS+ is nowhere near elite level hitting ability. Nowhere close to elite level. The other better measurements bear out the same results.
At his best, Ichiro still falls near the 400th mark(and probably much lower) for his hitting ability.
NV, people DO rate him an elite hitter though.
See how many people will agree that his 262 hit season is maybe the 2,500 best hitting season in MLB history.
Every Japan hitter that comes here has a perfromance that ranges from Worse than their Japan performance....to flat out bust or terrible. Even Ichiro did not hit as good, and he was the best Japan player(MLB-wise) to come.
Waldimir Balenien just hit 60 Home Runs last year in Japan. The previous two years he hit 31, and 31 over there.
Lifetime OPS over there .989
Lifetime OPS in MLB .655. Garbage MLB player
That list is long with rejects coming from here, and going there to Japan be superstars. Tuffy Rhodes, Randy Bass. Not just good, but they are Babe Ruth good over there.
Darvish is making a splash here, and he is excellent. His ERA is 3.34 in MLB...very good. In seven years in Japan it was 1.99.....and Darvish has done the best pitching in MLB from Japan
Japan is nowhere near close to MLB. One or two of their elite can compete...but still even them at a lower level in MLB. The overral talent of the league is nowhere near MLB.
To assume that Ichiro, since he hit the ground running in Japan, would have the same learning curve in MLB if he started out here, is simply is a wild assumption.
Like I said, in those other posts which lay out logically what would/could happen to Ichiro in other scenarios...those days of people giving him seven years of good MLB credit, are done. He doesn't deserve that credit.
As it stands, he is ranked where he is supposed to be ranked...and is still the most overrated hitter of all-time.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>Valuing a hitter solely on OPS is like valuing a pitcher solely on ERA, it's just dumb. >>
Not valuing it solely on OPS you fool.
Win Probabliyt Added
Base OUts
Linear Weights Batter runs.
All those are extremely precise in measuring what a hitter contributes to creating runs and wins. They say the same thing!
OPS+ just happens to mirror them pretty closely, and it is easy to use.
What is dumb is if some moron uses contact rate or anything related to that to measure a hitter. Now THAT is dumb.
<< <i>NV, they could have. He also could have went the way of Jerry Owens. He certainly doesn't deserve to get credited for five missing seasons(and assuming they would all be at his best) simply because he played in Japan. You do that, then do that to all MLB who played in the minors and credit them for those at gats. >>
Why stop at Minor Leagues? Why not all the at bats in Little League and t-ball, too?. A player deserves credit for being a good player only when they are actually a good player. Vast majority of players in the Minor Leagues are not good enough to hit Major League pitching. The same is true for Japan. But the few that are good enough, do deserve that credit
Murray played in 888 games before turning 27 without even adjusting for the strike. Even if he was good enough before his rookie season, it wasn't nearly for the length of time that players like Ichiro, Boggs and Campanella were kept away
<< <i>NV, people DO rate him an elite hitter though. >>
If people do rate him as such an elite hitter, why is it so hard to find anyone who would put him anywhere near the top five right fielders in history given how great he is at doing things when he isn't standing in the batters box? Where do you rate him among all right fielders?
<< <i>To assume that Ichiro, since he hit the ground running in Japan, would have the same learning curve in MLB if he started out here, is simply is a wild assumption. >>
I agree that would be an incorrect assumption. Just as assuming he was incapable of hitting American pitchers before he come here is completely incorrect
<< <i>As it stands, he is ranked where he is supposed to be ranked...and is still the most overrated hitter of all-time. >>
That is such an awesome line. Don't see how anyone could argue with it
<< <i>Hpothetical: 7th game of world series. 2 outs in the bottom of 9th. Down 2 runs. bases loaded (this avoids a potential base on balls) who do you want up at the box:
Ichiro or Jeter?
My choice would be Jeter.
Getting back to that definition of 'clutch.' >>
Jeter isn't clutch at all. He had some big hits early in his career and people have called him clutch ever since. His career OPS is .828. In "late & close" situations, his OPS is .792. He also doesn't hit any better in the playoffs than in the regular season.
<< <i>
<< <i>Valuing a hitter solely on OPS is like valuing a pitcher solely on ERA, it's just dumb. >>
Not valuing it solely on OPS you fool.
Win Probabliyt Added
Base OUts
Linear Weights Batter runs.
All those are extremely precise in measuring what a hitter contributes to creating runs and wins. They say the same thing!
OPS+ just happens to mirror them pretty closely, and it is easy to use.
What is dumb is if some moron uses contact rate or anything related to that to measure a hitter. Now THAT is dumb. >>
You know the argument is mature when people start calling others "fool" and when the information others use is called them and that user is called a moron. Sounds like Skins2 is quite the winner, and above all, nice guy.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Valuing a hitter solely on OPS is like valuing a pitcher solely on ERA, it's just dumb. >>
Not valuing it solely on OPS you fool.
Win Probabliyt Added
Base OUts
Linear Weights Batter runs.
All those are extremely precise in measuring what a hitter contributes to creating runs and wins. They say the same thing!
OPS+ just happens to mirror them pretty closely, and it is easy to use.
What is dumb is if some moron uses contact rate or anything related to that to measure a hitter. Now THAT is dumb. >>
You know the argument is mature when people start calling others "fool" and when the information others use is called them and that user is called a moron. Sounds like Skins2 is quite the winner, and above all, nice guy. >>
Cnote, it is a lively sports debate, and that comes with the territory...no biggie, and I hold no apology for it in this case. If you are that concerned about slurs though, he did mention "dumb" first
NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish.
<< <i>Cnote, it is a lively sports debate, and that comes with the territory...no biggie, and I hold no apology for it in this case. If you are that concerned about slurs though, he did mention "dumb" first
NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish. >>
I've been called much worse than a fool in my time
Don't give credit to Ichiro for his Japanese performance, but even you need to admit he gave up some time to the foreign league. Ichiro was an MVP at age 27 (his first year in the MLB), it would not be a stretch by any means to assume he would have AT LEAST been a starter at age 25 or 26. Ichiro gave up 2 or 3 good years to Japan (probably more).
But, on a separate note. What defines a good hitter? Ichiro asserted his will onto pitchers during his prime; he went for singles and got them. I have watched him since he entered the league and I have never seen him try to hit a home run or a deep ball. Ichiro was a slap stick hitter who went for singles in the gap and he was the best in the world at it. I guess when it's all said and done his slugging percentage sucks and he never really walked much, but that's how he played. It's how most Japanese players play. If a hitter goes for a single every time and gets it more often than anyone, does that make him a bad hitter?
With a player like that, you really can't assess his ability with slugging% or OPS or other typical sabermetrics because he had a different style of play.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>Hpothetical: 7th game of world series. 2 outs in the bottom of 9th. Down 2 runs. bases loaded (this avoids a potential base on balls) who do you want up at the box: >>
2 outs and bases loaded, Ichiro is a .397/.423/.552/.981 hitter for his career.
Jeter is .328/.417/.400/.817
I think I'd take Ichiro.
<< <i>
Don't give credit to Ichiro for his Japanese performance, but even you need to admit he gave up some time to the foreign league. Ichiro was an MVP at age 27 (his first year in the MLB), it would not be a stretch by any means to assume he would have AT LEAST been a starter at age 25 or 26. Ichiro gave up 2 or 3 good years to Japan (probably more).
But, on a separate note. What defines a good hitter? Ichiro asserted his will onto pitchers during his prime; he went for singles and got them. I have watched him since he entered the league and I have never seen him try to hit a home run or a deep ball. Ichiro was a slap stick hitter who went for singles in the gap and he was the best in the world at it. I guess when it's all said and done his slugging percentage sucks and he never really walked much, but that's how he played. It's how most Japanese players play. If a hitter goes for a single every time and gets it more often than anyone, does that make him a bad hitter?
With a player like that, you really can't assess his ability with slugging% or OPS or other typical sabermetrics because he had a different style of play. >>
JHS5, I did admit that the most likely scenario would have been him having two years similar to his first two in MLB, then if he was able to secure a job at a young age, a mixed bag of other years(with only an estimate of how bad/good).
His style of play is what it is, and his 'Japanese hitting philosophy' is what it is. If he were capable of hitting more home runs, drawing more walks AND maintaining the same batting average, I'm pretty sure he(or anyone else)would have done it...even in Japan, because that would mean he would be creating more runs for his team.
He swings at almost everything to get the bat on the ball, almost committing himself to swing at every pitch just to make contact, resulting in a lot of infield hits and singles(and a lot of weak outs too!). He is good at that.....
......BUT, that doesn't mean he would just be able to change that approach, then turn himself into Ted Williams by only swinging at pitches he could drive out of the park(and then actually proceed to drive out of the park); and having the uniquely discerning eye and patience, and reaction time, to be able to lay off borderline pitches so he can hit the ball with authority when he does swing, and draw a lot of walks when he doesn't. That is a different skill set, than being a wild type slap swinger that is basically an early committer.
Extremely highly doubtful Ichiro has that physical capability of being able to assess a pitch as quickly as those truly elite hitters, and then proceed to deliver the results. Ichiro is an early committer at pitches for a reason, just like all the other 'guess' or early committers that don't walk a lot and make weak contact. The reason is, they don't have the body equipment to do it....if they had the ability to do what Williams and Bonds did....they would have!
As it sits, his approach of hitting is easily measured as to its value in the game of baseball. The game of baseball is to score runs. His style(and subsequent results) simply do not produce as many runs as a Ted Williams, Mantle, or Bonds style(and their subsequent results) etc.... Measuring that is extremely precise with the play by play data at our disposal!
<< <i>JHS5, I did admit that the most likely scenario would have been him having two years similar to his first two in MLB, then if he was able to secure a job at a young age, a mixed bag of other years(with only an estimate of how bad/good).
His style of play is what it is, and his 'Japanese hitting philosophy' is what it is. If he were capable of hitting more home runs, drawing more walks AND maintaining the same batting average, I'm pretty sure he(or anyone else)would have done it...even in Japan, because that would mean he would be creating more runs for his team.
He swings at almost everything to get the bat on the ball, almost committing himself to swing at every pitch just to make contact, resulting in a lot of infield hits and singles(and a lot of weak outs too!). He is good at that.....
......BUT, that doesn't mean he would just be able to change that approach, then turn himself into Ted Williams by only swinging at pitches he could drive out of the park(and then actually proceed to drive out of the park); and having the uniquely discerning eye and patience, and reaction time, to be able to lay off borderline pitches so he can hit the ball with authority when he does swing, and draw a lot of walks when he doesn't. That is a different skill set, than being a wild type slap swinger that is basically an early committer.
Extremely highly doubtful Ichiro has that physical capability of being able to assess a pitch as quickly as those truly elite hitters, and then proceed to deliver the results. Ichiro is an early committer at pitches for a reason, just like all the other 'guess' or early committers that don't walk a lot and make weak contact. The reason is, they don't have the body equipment to do it....if they had the ability to do what Williams and Bonds did....they would have!
As it sits, his approach of hitting is easily measured as to its value in the game of baseball. The game of baseball is to score runs. His style(and subsequent results) simply do not produce as many runs as a Ted Williams, Mantle, or Bonds style(and their subsequent results) etc.... Measuring that is extremely precise with the play by play data at our disposal!
I would disagree with most of this. With Ichiro's aforementioned contact% in the mid/low 90's through most of his career (among the best in MLB history) it's pretty obvious he has/had a fantastic eye at the plate. Ichiro also swung at 28.7% of pitches outside of the strike zone (average), but this was brought up over the past 3-4 years. During Ichiro's prime he was as low as 16% (a crazy crazy crazy low number). To put that number into perspective, Kevin Youkilis (arguably the best eye in the game) has only gotten his O-Swing% as low as 18.7% once in a season. Ichiro has a fantastic eye and he hardly swings wildly.
I think the low OPS+ and the low WARP and sabermetrics are a testament to the ineffectiveness of Japanese-style hitting and not so much Ichiro's ability (or lack thereof). It's pretty safe to say Ichiro was one of the most successful slap-hitters in the modern era, and it's pretty clear by the stats that he wasn't even that effective! It's unfair to count Ichiro out as an overrated hitter simply because of the style of play he approached the game at wasn't effective. I mean, the guy had 262 hits in season! I realize his OPS+ was less than stellar that season, but if that is an indication that 262 hits is an easy accomplishment then why have we never seen anything like that before?
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
Guys like Ted Williams, Mantle, or Bonds aren't really taught that approach...it is an approach that results from having such a good eye and reaction time...so that it is simply how they hit. They have neuro-muscular systems that allow them to. THey do it, because they have it. Guys that don't have it don't do it...because they aren't capable of doing it. So they have to guess more or committ early more.
Ichiro's actual swing isn't really any different than anyone else in MLB. He has the same rotational mechanics, same tilts and swing planes as the other guys that hit it over the fence. The difference is the neuro-muscle system that either allows them to be patient(and still deliver), or be pure 'guess'(guess hitters still hits 'em hard on correct guess, but eaten up on bad), or early committer(the early committer hits more bad pitches resulting in less authoritative hits).
I can post some swing pictures to show Ichiro's swing...and a lot of people get confused with swings...and a lot of pro hitters actually don't know good swings either. If you listen to them, they tell people to do things different than waht they actually do. For instance, elite swings don't have a downward plane, but rather a slightly upward plane(even Ichiro).
Good piece of advice for little league coaches. Don't listen to what elite pros tell you on how to swing....LOOK at how they swing, and do that! People are fooled all the time!
Bats are not level when they are at the point of contact. They are at an angle. The lower the pitcher, the greater the angle. The higher the pitch, the flatter the angle. The same holds true for Mauer to Ichiro to Bonds to Pujols to Cabrerra.
THe swings are basically the same at the elite level...it is the neuro/muscle system that separates them.
But there are the guys who do get coached and ruin their already good swing. That can separate them too!
If the game were changed to whoever hits the most ground balls to the pitcher wins.....then I would take Ichiro over Williams any day too!
IF Ichiro could hit like the elite players, he would have.
You are saying Ichiro could if he wanted to...then that would make him stupid and horrible at strategy! How would that make him a better hitter if he knew he could hit like Ted Williams....and he chose not to??
Heck, if my mom married Wilt Chamberlain...I'd be taller. But she didn't...so six feet is where I stand.
PS...and Ichiro swings poorly within the strike zone! Not all strikes are created equal. The elite hitters swing at the strikes they could hit far, and lay off the others until they have to swing at them.
<< <i>It's unfair to count Ichiro out as an overrated hitter simply because of the style of play he approached the game at wasn't effective. I mean, the guy had 262 hits in season! I realize his OPS+ was less than stellar that season, but if that is an indication that 262 hits is an easy accomplishment then why have we never seen anything like that before? >>
In the history of baseball only two players have had more at-bats in a season than Ichiro did that season (704). If everyone had 704 ABs per season, the number of players with 262 hits would be much higher. Ty Cobb had 262+ hits over a 704 ABs span multiple times. In fact, he did it at least once in about 635 ABs.
Ichiro hits like an elite player, but he never produced runs like an elite player. From 2002 to 2010 there was always a petition to get Ichiro to participate in the home run derby because all of his teams swore he could hit them farther than anyone. I think Ichiro was taught young one way to play and it wasn't until sabermetrics until everyone realized that the way he played was marginally less effective than "American" style baseball.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>If a hitter goes for a single every time and gets it more often than anyone, does that make him a bad hitter?
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No, but it certainly doesn't mean that he's a better hitter than all of the players with a lower batting average. Every player, including Ichiro, would rather hit .300 and slug .600 than hit .319 and slug .414. There's nothing wrong with going for a single every AB, but you might have to hit well over .400 if you wanted to help your team as much as a .300 hitter with power.
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<< <i>It's unfair to count Ichiro out as an overrated hitter simply because of the style of play he approached the game at wasn't effective. I mean, the guy had 262 hits in season! I realize his OPS+ was less than stellar that season, but if that is an indication that 262 hits is an easy accomplishment then why have we never seen anything like that before? >>
In the history of baseball only two players have had more at-bats in a season than Ichiro did that season (704). If everyone had 704 ABs per season, the number of players with 262 hits would be much higher. Ty Cobb had 262+ hits over a 704 ABs span multiple times. In fact, he did it at least once in about 635 ABs. >>
Excellent point. This is also the reason why inflated RBI totals are also misleading. If hitter A has 100 opportunities at the plate with runners in scoring position and hitter B has 75 opportunities at the plate with runners in scoring position, who is going to put up the higher RBI total, even if hitter A is not as effective a hitter in general.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish. >>
How many players in high school can hit Major League pitching? If you really believe Ichiro was unable to hit Major League pitching at any point before he first played in America you are severely underrating his baseball career
<< <i>Ichiro's low O-Swing% indicates he is not one to commit early and his high Contact% indicates he is hardly a guesser. All the swing %'s point to a hitter who swings at pitches within the strike zone and makes contact. I realize this isn't proof of a good hitter by any means, but when you look at the amount of contact he makes paired with his stellar batting average it shows that he's doing a bit more than slapping weak ground balls.
Ichiro hits like an elite player, but he never produced runs like an elite player. From 2002 to 2010 there was always a petition to get Ichiro to participate in the home run derby because all of his teams swore he could hit them farther than anyone. I think Ichiro was taught young one way to play and it wasn't until sabermetrics until everyone realized that the way he played was marginally less effective than "American" style baseball. >>
Ummm, there were no sabermatricians to teach Ted Williams that style. None for Ty Cobb either. Those guys had the ability to make just as much contact, but also make more authoritative contact.
THey had that ability because they had a more effectiver neuro-muscular systems that allowed then to see and read better....and then have the ability to then deliver when they did swing.
Yeah, he makes contact. But what kind of contact? Weak contact mostly, otherwise he would have more balls going further.
And obviously his eye/contact aren't as good as you say, because he still does strike out a fair amount of times...averaging about 69 per 162 games. That isn't that great for someone who also doesn't hit the ball hard.
So obviously he is getting fooled often(guessing) and losing his weight shift and timing, so all he could do at that point is hit with his arms....weak contact.
If he wasn't getting fooled or not judging as well as the elite hitters, then he would be hitting the ball harder.
I can hit balls out of the park still in MLB parks in batting practice. I like your philosophy. I can hit balls out of the park now, and I grew up in an age where walks and patience weren't stressed either. Heck, that makes me as good as Ted Williams...it is just other people's fault that they didn't tell me this stuff beforehand! I'm an all-time great hitter too!
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<< <i>NVbaseball, that kind of is the point. Why stop at the Minor Leagues, why not go to high school, lol. Because by giving Ichiro credit based on Japan performance, that is what you are doing, and why it is foolish. >>
How many players in high school can hit Major League pitching? If you really believe Ichiro was unable to hit Major League pitching at any point before he first played in America you are severely underrating his baseball career >>
You make no sense. Ichiro hit .188 in Japan when he was 19...that is any point prior to MLB, correct? Japan is the minor leagues. Been through this already. He could have been Jerry Owens starting in the states. People were worried about him in spring trianing when he did come...getting overpowered and not hitting ball with authority. A 20 year old in MLB spring training gets sent to the minors for that...that is reality my friend.
You want to give Ichiro OPS+ 120 credit as a 20 year old if he were in MLB, simply because he did that art age 27 in his first year in the states, and excelled in a minor league prior to that. A terribly unfounded assumption you are making. He would NEVER get a shot in MLB at that age with his poor on base skills and poor power skills.
I wish he had come earlier...he would have been a pinch hitter/part time player for five years on Seattle
Like I said, Wade Boggs was a light years better hitter, he started MLB at age 24, so a more logical assumption is that if an inferior hitter like Ichiro is thought to be able to do as good at a young age....then Boggs should have had no problem doing it at age 19 himself.
Do that same exercise for every MLB that was better than Ichiro....and add all those plus years to them too. It is only fair. It is dumb and not realistic, just as it is dumb and not realistic for Ichiro.
If Ichiro were so elite, then how is a 120 OPS+ during his prime, elite in any way. Don't even need to go to the Japan question. Look at his prime and measure him that way...he is about 400th all time either way(maybe worse if I sat down and did it).
<< <i>In the history of baseball only two players have had more at-bats in a season than Ichiro did that season (704). If everyone had 704 ABs per season, the number of players with 262 hits would be much higher. Ty Cobb had 262+ hits over a 704 ABs span multiple times. In fact, he did it at least once in about 635 ABs. >>
Ichiro had a .350 BA that season so it wasn't just a product of AB's. When was the last time a player had a .350+ batting average with 650+ at bats?
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
I always thought Ichiro was a little overrated, but a very good ballplayer offensively and defensively.
Your whole premise really is pretty foolish, and wishful thinking at best.
Ichiro averaged 20 Home Runs per 162 games in Japan. I just wanted to point that out. If it weren't important to hit home runs in Japan, then why did he choose to hit 20 per season there....and only 9 per season here? What changed his philosophy?
His ability did. He wasn't good enough to hit 20 homers a year in the states. Had he tried, then it would have been at the expense of his batting average, contact rate, and on base skills. In the end, he would end up the same hitter he is now...just through different means.
If he were capable of averaging a .350 AVG, .420 OB%, and .522 SLG% in MLB, he would have. He certainly tried to do that in Japan
He sits where he belongs as measured by the best measurements.