Local Emergencies: PMs worthless without equavilent folding money
tneig
Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
The PM circle, and in emergencies, is much smaller in reality. You'll need $1k in folding money for every $1k in PMs.
As I've noticed before and more so now, most folks have no clue as to what PMs are or their value and just not interested. They think folding money or traditional investments and banks. In a localized emergency, you better have the folding green and lots of it. They'd more easily take questionable folding money then gold, as for most, that is all they know.
The local PM audience for me, other than local shops is almost non existent. I know I have to work on that, but its not there. One or two friends that have but a handful of coins but little knowledge, and only one that has a bigger stash from way back when that would not be interested in buying. My wife still gets ASEs from the mint.
So for little emergencies or fast cash its selling here or the local shops at below spot, or the ebay/craigs list thing. For big local Immediate emergencies it may be nada or a substantial cut below spot. And dangerous, because if the only trading that can be done is with PMs, you better be armed.
For something like an east coast power grid loss for 30 days, you need cash either primarily.
As I've noticed before and more so now, most folks have no clue as to what PMs are or their value and just not interested. They think folding money or traditional investments and banks. In a localized emergency, you better have the folding green and lots of it. They'd more easily take questionable folding money then gold, as for most, that is all they know.
The local PM audience for me, other than local shops is almost non existent. I know I have to work on that, but its not there. One or two friends that have but a handful of coins but little knowledge, and only one that has a bigger stash from way back when that would not be interested in buying. My wife still gets ASEs from the mint.
So for little emergencies or fast cash its selling here or the local shops at below spot, or the ebay/craigs list thing. For big local Immediate emergencies it may be nada or a substantial cut below spot. And dangerous, because if the only trading that can be done is with PMs, you better be armed.
For something like an east coast power grid loss for 30 days, you need cash either primarily.
COA
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PMs will be king in a currency crisis.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>cash will be king in a crisis.
PMs will be king in a currency crisis. >>
That's a great line and generally, absolutely true. However, the first line might depend on what kind of crisis.
If the power went out in a city for, say 2 weeks, and all the roads were blocked and no relief was flowing either way, and all the ATMs were off, the kings would probably be bags of ice, especially dry ice, also gasoline, water, bottles of LPG, bags of charcoal, canned food, cash prices for those and similar will skyrocket.
However be careful to trade fair and not be a gouger
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Some of the reason I got into this was the shock value of emergencies, but now I've defined that better for myself and needs.
A lot of books and places promote PMs for broad-band emergencies, but that's not so true really.
Bad advice on their parts, likely to get you into the pm market and buying 'their products."
The broadband emergency of a power outage and banks out of service, and a crippled supply chain,
means cash and a gun.
So what do we do, have thousands of depreciating dollars laying around for cash emergencies?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Lessons from argentinas 2006 collapse
Steve
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Lead is the only metal that matters in a real crisis. With lead, you will have no trouble getting yourself "Cup O Noodles". >>
"no trouble" bwhahahahah! Tough guy
Was that the winning strategy in Katrina, Sandy, Polar Vortex, Japan earthquake/meltdown, and Big Aisian Tsunami? Trade hot lead for food and fuel?
edit: or maybe I have misunderstood the meaning of your comment? I did not see the joking winkie, but perhaps you simply offer a useless jest?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Lead is the only metal that matters in a real crisis. With lead, you will have no trouble getting yourself "Cup O Noodles". >>
Unless of course dem Noodles is backed by lead, and with that crisis averted, we have the makings for some good Jerky
Got to recycle
Steve
<< <i>
<< <i>Lead is the only metal that matters in a real crisis. With lead, you will have no trouble getting yourself "Cup O Noodles". >>
"no trouble" bwhahahahah! Tough guy
Was that the winning strategy in Katrina, Sandy, Polar Vortex, Japan earthquake/meltdown, and Big Aisian Tsunami? Trade hot lead for food and fuel?
edit: or maybe I have misunderstood the meaning of your comment? I did not see the joking winkie, but perhaps you simply offer a useless jest? >>
I was referring to ammo as being used as money. Commonly used ammo such as 12ga, 9mm or 45ACP could be traded for food with 22LR being used as small change. Like coins, ammo is portable and is not perishable like many commodities and will be in demand. I wasn't referring to killing my next door neighbor to steal his food.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Funny that even though gold has been "valued" since the ancients, all the ancients are dead. >>
Even funnier that their gold is still alive.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Lead is the only metal that matters in a real crisis. With lead, you will have no trouble getting yourself "Cup O Noodles". >>
"no trouble" bwhahahahah! Tough guy
Was that the winning strategy in Katrina, Sandy, Polar Vortex, Japan earthquake/meltdown, and Big Aisian Tsunami? Trade hot lead for food and fuel?
edit: or maybe I have misunderstood the meaning of your comment? I did not see the joking winkie, but perhaps you simply offer a useless jest? >>
I was referring to ammo as being used as money. Commonly used ammo such as 12ga, 9mm or 45ACP could be traded for food with 22LR being used as small change. Like coins, ammo is portable and is not perishable like many commodities and will be in demand. I wasn't referring to killing my next door neighbor to steal his food. >>
Ah, ok, whew, what a relief.
I still question the value of bullets for barter in the type of emergency that has any reasonable likelihood. I would think AA and AAA batteries to have orders of magnitude more liquidity than bullets in any foreseeable circumstance in the USA
ditto disposable lighters, razor blades, gum/candy... I'd rather have a stash of pretty much any item in a convenience/gas station store, over bullets in an American Crisis.
edit: not that I wouldn't have bullets, too, I do. But I consider them second-to-last resort for barter, and a last resort for shooting.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
AA or AAA are a poor barter item unless they are in a blister pack or you have a battery tester.
In a true crisis, razor blades won't be in that much demand. People will just grow a beard.
Gum and candy have a limited shelf life.
Realistically, a true crisis such as a natural disaster will last a few months at most and will be local in nature.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>PMs are virtually worthless in a time of real crisis. Why would I trade away food or fuel for bits of metal that only have value when there is an economy to freely trade in them? hell, trade me stock certs (back when they had them) as they would be just as worthless. I'm afraid that the real currency of a crisis are actual useful items based on necessity rather than bits of metal. >>
"Virtually worthless" gold in a real crisis in over 100 nations around the world will get you through as good as currency. The US is one of the few exceptions, not the rule. Having the world's reserve currency can taint one's view.
Those stock certs would be basically worthless around the world. Comparing gold to stock certs in a crisis.....that's a good one. One has been around for 5,000 years and handled thousands of crisis. Stock certs? 0.
Your real problem in a crisis is not trying to figure out what to trade with....but to figure out how to keep it once others know you have something. Figure for every 1 household that is prepared, there will be several others (or 9?)
that aren't. You will be pressured to "share." In a crisis lasting months, your currency may end up being next to worthless. Once it was clear that the crisis was going to last more than just days, those with "stuff" aren't going
to be accepting cash for it.
Funny that even though "ancient" or "aged" collectibles of all sorts (gold too) have been "valued" for hundreds and thousands of years, all those previous owners are dead. The collectibles live on and are still worth plenty too.
Pittman, Eliasberg, Norwebs, John Story Jenks, Sam Brown, James A. Stack, etc. have all passed on. Their coins are worth more than ever.
<< <i>Realistically, a true crisis such as a natural disaster will last a few months at most and will be local in nature. >>
Its also a good idea to figure in a certain % for unprepared neighbors, it is just the right thing to do.
I remember the Northridge Earthquake, and Vons was giving away stuff, You got what they gave you and had
no choice about it.
There was a dairy where the guy was selling melted bags of ice (A BAG OF WATER) for like 10 buck a bag and
he was getting it too!..............thing is a few monthes after the crisis his dairy that he operated for 20 years
went out of buissness..........people do remember!!
Steve
the razor blades and tampons and chapstick are not for bartering with men
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>and there value is based on - dollars. At the end of the day in a true crisis your million dollar gold coin is worth nothing but the metal it contains. >>
The value is NOT based on dollars....or any other currency.....not in a true crisis. Its value is based on what other stuff it can be exchanged/traded for. And in a real crisis good luck with those FRN's...I'll take silver and gold bullionesque coins. And who was talking about a million dollar gold coin any way? (ie a proof-64 1855-s $3 gold or an unc 1927-d Saint for example). Not me. But when the day comes when you can afford to own a million dollar gold coin, odds are you'll have your bases covered in other key supplies, cash, arable land, and bullion. A simple pair of scissors will do fine for keeping that beard trimmed fairly close.
<< <i>In a true crisis, razor blades won't be in that much demand. People will just grow a beard.
the razor blades and tampons and chapstick are not for bartering with men
If I get your meaning, you may also want to stockpile condoms.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Charles III Album
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Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
The gold and to a lesser extent silver are for the big historic events such as a change in government due to the loss of a major war, or revolution. This might coincide with other big ones such as major plagues or major famine. When these big ones hit, about half the time it is better to leave the country than to try and stay. A lot of people wrote about how useless gold and silver were during hurricane Katrina or similar localized emergencies, but it isn't for that. I am sure that more than a few emergency supply stockpiles or metal hoards were swept away by the storm. Aid was coming in within three days to a week. Virtually no one starved to death, during this was a once-in-century kind of localized event. So what exactly are people preparing for? Again, water and medicine (if a person needs it) are the big two.
Some common sense and good relations with neighbors might be worth more than a year's stockpile of food and ammo, or a 1 kilo bar of gold for that matter, if a big historic event does come along. If word gets around, that kind of stuff can paint a target on a family's back.
As for barter items, cigarettes if a person is a smoker. liquor for drinkers, chocolate are all good barter items. Most have a shelf life, so best to only stock what a person might consume in the next few months. I see no need to buy specialized emergency food items. There are canned foods, rice, beans, pop tarts, and stuff like that, if a person eats those things. All of them last for a while. Just keep a bit extra on hand. Same for bottled water, or tap water containers, keep a bit extra on hand, and that will be plenty for most localized emergencies.
I see little need for urban residents to plan to be without power, or help for 30 days (rural residents don't need a website to tell them how to survive, they will find a way). If it comes to starvation levels for entire cities, the casualty rate will likely be above 25%, meaning millions and millions might die in a large city. That kind of thing has never happened in the U.S. during modern times. Keep in mind half the population doesn't save any money, so likely don't have more than two days of food on hand. If an emergency means millions of casualties in the U.S., the government may well fall, and all the folding money, stocks, bonds, deeds to real estate, may not be worth anything a year or two later. With the new face IRS and NSA, all gold owners are likely already being tracked. Anyone that ever bought in quantity from the U.S. Mint or bulk bullion via credit card is likely already on a list. If the crap hits, those in power may well target that list. Yet, another reason to have a plan to leave the country.
<< <i>cash will be king in a crisis.
PMs will be king in a currency crisis. >>
What would be your basis for giving a purchase value to those PMs? Since 90% junk silver already has dollar based denominations, I assume you'd use that. How many dollars worth of goods could I expect to buy for a Walker?
H2O2 & bleach & a host of other things. It pays to always have 30 days supply of essentials.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/one-year-in-hellsurviving-a-full-shtf-collapse-in-bosnia/
<< <i>Lessons from argentinas 2006 collapse >>
Thanks for the link bronco2078; an EXCELLENT article.
If the rest of you have not taken the time to read, I suggest doing so. A very informative account for one who has lived what we a discussing. Be sure to read all 4 parts. Very sobbering when the author describes what was happening prior to SHTF, the warning signs, etc; kind of sounding familiar for our country.
I've read that article before. Good article.
I knew it would happen.
Your results may vary.
<< <i>In some major crisis, I don't know why someone with gold would hang around. I thought that's the point. Been proved many times globally, but perhaps Americans just don't have the perspective.
Your results may vary. >>
How easy would it be to get into Canada or Mexico with 100 1 ounce Maple Leafs?
<< <i>
<< <i>In some major crisis, I don't know why someone with gold would hang around. I thought that's the point. Been proved many times globally, but perhaps Americans just don't have the perspective.
Your results may vary. >>
How easy would it be to get into Canada or Mexico with 100 1 ounce Maple Leafs? >>
Yeah...but you could sure get from Mexico to here easily.
.25c Silver = Gal of Gas. Same as 40 years ago
.50c Silver = Bag full of groceries
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>In some major crisis, I don't know why someone with gold would hang around. I thought that's the point. Been proved many times globally, but perhaps Americans just don't have the perspective.
Your results may vary. >>
"Economy and Crime Spur New Puerto Rican Exodus"
LINKY
A. If you are in a dense urban area and a major threat or a break down in society occurs, you should be prepared to hunker down because the routes out will likely be impassible unless of course, you see it coming and get out before the crowd gathers. A few years ago, one of our well followed news casters predicted that a weak cat 4 was strengthening and would hit Houston as a strong cat 5 and people should leave the city so they did, all at once. A number of people died on the side of the road, out of gas, broke down, no chance of getting off of the highway or getting help to them. A small percent made it out of town. Don't try escaping if things get weird because in situations like this, people become rabid out on the road...ruthlessly rabid.
B. Hunkering down doesn't mean get out the 12 Ga. and hiding in the closet. It means sitting in the garage with the door open. Remember, you won't have any a/c and if you don't have screens on your windows, you're in the garage. You will need some food in the freezer. The food will be good for about 6 days then you have to cook all your meat and fresh veggies on the BBQ grill (don't forget to invite a neighbor or two) and don't eat it all. We went for 10 days with no electric and could have made it a few more days. Oh yeah, the wells go down too because there's no electric for the pumps so keep some water, 5 gal/day/person minimum).
So turn the radio on to a country music station, visit with your neighbors, spend some down time with your family and enjoy. Don't forget food for the pet, they will need food too and you don't want it to be yours. You also won't have any gasoline (pumps won't work), you won't have any ATM (keep CASH stashed, always!!!, you won't be able to buy anything for a few days). Other than that, it is actually quite pleasant. Interesting how quiet it gets...cool.
C. In case of a Katrina type zombie attack, no one piece of advice will cover the possible scenarios. One thing that works well is to work with your neighbors to share, help out (trees on roofs or cars, etc.) and stick together.
D. Your PM's won't do you any good until things settle down...have CASH for when the stores do open.
Be safe out there.
I can't post the link due to a forbidden word...the addy is MARKET WATCH as one word. That apparently forms TW*T. Go figure?