So Sutter and Goosage are in the HOF......
Tomi
Posts: 643 ✭✭✭
......but Lee Smith isn't.
Bruce Sutter- 12 yrs. 300 saves, 2.83 era.
Rich Goosage- 22yrs. 310 saves, 3.01 era
Lee Smith- 18 yrs. 478 saves, 3.03 era and retires as the all time saves leader at the time.
Do the HOF voters just not like this guy?
Bruce Sutter- 12 yrs. 300 saves, 2.83 era.
Rich Goosage- 22yrs. 310 saves, 3.01 era
Lee Smith- 18 yrs. 478 saves, 3.03 era and retires as the all time saves leader at the time.
Do the HOF voters just not like this guy?
0
Comments
Doug
<< <i>I agree with you >>
I'll second that
Smith's career ERA+ is 132, while Gossage's is 126 and Sutter's is 136. Smith's career WAR of 29.4 is less impressive when compared to the other two~Gossage is at 41.8 and Sutter is only 24.5 but Sutter's career was 1/3 shorter than Smith's. Career WHIPs are 1.25 for Smith, 1.23 for Gossage and a more stellar 1.14 for Sutter, which likely would have been higher had his career extended longer.
One thing to take into consideration, though, too, is that an impressive number of Gossage's saves were longer than the standard 1 IP, coming into the game with no outs and nobody on in the 9th inning with a lead of 1-3 runs. Saves were tougher to come by in Gossage's era than Smith's, as pitchers were brought into the game in the 7th and 8th inning with men on base. Sutter also has the World Series ring whereas Smith cost the Cubs the 1984 series vs Dodgers by giving up a gamewinning HR to Garvey. Sutter is also credited with developing the split-fingered fastball, which had a notable impact on the game.
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I think the real nail bitter though is Jack Morris. Does he just make it in on the 15th try??
I'm also very interested in what Clemens and Bonds do In Year number two. Was there a statement being made by keeping them off the first ballot HOF list and now the writers let them in? Certainly didn't work that way for McGwire but their numbers are so impressive I could see them with a decent shot this year.
Anyway I'm sure Maddux and Biggio get in, I'll say yes to Morris but Bagwell, Piazza, Glavine and Frank Thomas all get disappointed.
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Updated: Jan.4 - 1:45 ~ 123 Full Ballots ~ (21.6% of vote ~ based on last year)
100 - Maddux
97.6 - Glavine
91.1 - F. Thomas
81.3 - Biggio
———————————
71.5 - Piazza
64.2 - Bagwell
61.8 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
60.2 - Raines
41.5 - Bonds
40.7 - Clemens
39.0 - Schilling
31.7 - Mussina
25.2 - Trammell
24.4 - E. Martinez
22.8 - L. Smith
15.4 - Kent
13.0 - McGriff
11.4 - L. Walker
9.8 - McGwire
7.3 - S. Sosa
6.5 - R. Palmeiro
———————————
4.9 - Mattingly
0.8 - P. Rose (Write-In)
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Pretty good case for Lee Smith here...
Lee Smith will almost certainly be elected to the baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. He has notched between 35-45% of the vote each year, topping out at 44.5% during last year’s vote. With no relief pitchers with a reasonable shot of getting elected coming onto the ballot until Rivera and Hoffman decide to retire, Smith faces no real competition for votes. He will get elected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened this year.
It is interesting to note that James clearly misjudged the support Smith would garner in subsequent years as his vote % has pretty much remained stagnant since that 44.5% in 2009 (2010-47.3, 2011-45.3, 2012-50.6, 2013-47.8), with just 22.8 so far this year. I expect that Smith's final vote % will be higher than 22% this year, but the ballot is strong this year and will be the next couple of years, so that doesn't bode well for a guy with just 3 bites at the apple remaining.
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<< <i>This is the up to date voting thus far, as of Jan. 4, with 21% of the vote in. Maddux is at 100%, which would be the first ever unanimous vote, and deservedly so, though I'm sure some crusty old schooler will leave him off the ballot just to make a point. Glavine and Thomas are over 90% and Biggio will get in, too. Piazza may make it in, but it's a strong ballot and he has to make up some ground. If Clemens and Bonds were allowed to combine their votes, they'd get in, LOL. A definite no on Jack Morris.
Updated: Jan.4 - 1:45 ~ 123 Full Ballots ~ (21.6% of vote ~ based on last year)
100 - Maddux
97.6 - Glavine
91.1 - F. Thomas
81.3 - Biggio
———————————
71.5 - Piazza
64.2 - Bagwell
61.8 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
60.2 - Raines
41.5 - Bonds
40.7 - Clemens
39.0 - Schilling
31.7 - Mussina
25.2 - Trammell
24.4 - E. Martinez
22.8 - L. Smith
15.4 - Kent
13.0 - McGriff
11.4 - L. Walker
9.8 - McGwire
7.3 - S. Sosa
6.5 - R. Palmeiro
———————————
4.9 - Mattingly
0.8 - P. Rose (Write-In) >>
those numbers bode pretty well for Clemens and Bonds they might actually have a shot
as for Lee getting in , thats a given. maybe not by the writers but from veterans
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<< <i>http://www.billjamesonline.com/article1255/
Pretty good case for Lee Smith here... >>
Very good article. Except it doesn't address the issue that most people think Gossage and Sutter were very weak choices and Quisenberry would look just as good if not better than Sutter and Smith. Find it hard to believe people will continue to vote for Smith over Schilling and Mussina who did so much more to help their teams
Some good comments, too, particularly that for Hall-of-Fame closers the model is much more likely to be Eckersly and Smoltz, not Sutter and Gossage
Here's the latest update.
Updated: Jan.5 - 8:20 ~ 130 Full Ballots ~ (22.8% of vote ~ based on last year)
100% - Maddux
97.7 - Glavine
91.5 - F. Thomas
80.8 - Biggio
———————————
72.3 - Piazza
63.8 - Bagwell
60.8 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
58.5 - Raines
42.3 - Bonds
41.5 - Clemens
40.0 - Schilling
32.3 - Mussina
24.6 - Trammell
24.6 - E. Martinez
23.1 - L. Smith
14.6 - Kent
13.1 - McGriff
11.5 - L. Walker
10.0 - McGwire
8.5 - S. Sosa
6.2 - R. Palmeiro
5.4 - Mattingly
———————————
0.8 - P. Rose (Write-In)
Thanks to Butch, Ilychs Morales, leokitty & Barnald for their help.
As usual…send them in if you come across any ballots!
Repoz Posted: December 25, 2013 at 02:57 PM | 1022 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history, hof
<< <i>How many of you thought HOF when watching Lee Smith? >>
I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters.
<< <i>How many of you thought HOF when watching Lee Smith? >>
If closers are are position one considers for the Hall of Fame, then I don't see how you could not consider Lee Smith. As stated he retired as the all time Save leader and is still number 3 on the all time list.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How many of you thought HOF when watching Lee Smith? >>
I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters. >>
I couldn't agree more. A closer is not a "position". It's a role. Like a pinch runner, pinch hitter, utility player. A "pitcher" is a position. If a player is going to try and make the Hall being a reliever, he better be an epic player, like Mo. Sutter, Fingers, Gossage, Lee ,etc. do not belong IMO. >>
that's crazy talk
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How many of you thought HOF when watching Lee Smith? >>
I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters. >>
I couldn't agree more. A closer is not a "position". It's a role. Like a pinch runner, pinch hitter, utility player. A "pitcher" is a position. If a player is going to try and make the Hall being a reliever, he better be an epic player, like Mo. Sutter, Fingers, Gossage, Lee ,etc. do not belong IMO. >>
How do you feel about Eck as a HOF member then?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How many of you thought HOF when watching Lee Smith? >>
I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters. >>
I couldn't agree more. A closer is not a "position". It's a role. Like a pinch runner, pinch hitter, utility player. A "pitcher" is a position. If a player is going to try and make the Hall being a reliever, he better be an epic player, like Mo. Sutter, Fingers, Gossage, Lee ,etc. do not belong IMO. >>
How do you feel about Eck as a HOF member then? >>
Eckersley was fairly dominant as a starter before reinventing the closer role as we know it. Nearly 200 wins AND 400 saves over 3,300 IP. He is somewhat comparable in a contemporary sense to Smoltz who will also be a first ballot HOFer.
For the record, I would rank Smoltz comfortably ahead of Eck all time.
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For the most part, the position remains failed starters being plugged in.
Not directly relevant, but I have won many rotisserie leagues through the years, enough to write an article on ESPN about it. I always, repeat, always punt saves on draft/auction day. There has never been a year when seemingly half the closers in the league at year end weren't waiver pick ups.
Rivera transcended the position. I have not seen another in the last 25 years I would consider close to the HoF.
My two cents.
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<< <i>Tim, we must have been typing at the same time. To me a DH would have to be a step above. IMO, both of those players will be challenged to enter the hall. >>
The data thus far would indicate that Martinez will not make it in. I do think Thome will make it in, though. The 612 HRs, SLG % of .554, OBP over .400 and OPS+ of 147 and WAR of 72.8 for his career will be hard to ignore, even as a DH.
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<< <i>How do you feel about Eck as a HOF member then? >>
Eck is a weak HOFer. 2 excellent and 2 good full seasons as a starter and an excellent partial. Then several average or bad ones. Becomes a reliever and has a 5 year run, 4 of which were excellent, one of which was "just" good. Then 6 mostly bad ones.
So we're talking about a guy who, really, had bad seasons more often than not. That's a HOFer? His dominance as a closer is wildly overstated - yep, he was unhittable for 4 years. No argument there whatsoever. Problem is, he was a closer for *12*. We're not talking Mariano here.
His most-frequent comparison is Smoltz. Smoltz was a LOT better as a starter - 6-time All-Star, Cy Young Winner, great postseason record. As a closer? Effective, but not great other than 2003. If I'm given the choice, I'll take the guy who was a dominant starter and that's Smoltz.
<< <i>I agree with you >>
This has been a mystery to me.He wasn't just a 1 inning closer either.There is something wrong with this picture for sure.Old Time committee is sure to get him in.
<< <i>Baseball, speaking of role players, where would you place a guy like Jim Thome or Edgar Martinez, who played a high number or majority of their games as a DH when it comes to evaluation for the HOF? >>
Thome has to get in his slugging was phenomenal he didn't DH until 2006 that gives him 12-13 years and his peak as a position player.
Class act all the way and no one ever accused him of PED use. Eliminate Bonds, Sosa and the rest of the sluggers who used and Thome would be one of VERY best power hitters if not the best 1993-2005.
He could have muddled along at first base had he not been with the White Sox who had Konerko playing first.
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On the HOF discussion, Jack Morris isn't getting in. I've always felt Trammell met the minimum criteria, but I'm very biased as he was a hometown hero for most of his career. Based on this article that's been circulating a lot lately, as well as all his career achievements, I'd be curious to hear non-Detroit fans' more objective take on Trammell's inclusion as compared with other shortstops who have made it in.
<< <i>Thome has to get in his slugging was phenomenal he didn't DH until 2006 that gives him 12-13 years and his peak as a position player. >>
As early as 1999, he was playing 25% of his games at DH.
100% - Maddux
97.2 - Glavine
92.4 - F. Thomas
80.7 - Biggio
———————————
71.0 - Piazza
63.4 - Bagwell
60.0 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
59.3 - Raines
42.1 - Bonds
41.4 - Clemens
39.3 - Schilling
31.0 - Mussina
25.5 - E. Martinez
24.1 - Trammell
24.1 - L. Smith
15.2 - Kent
13.8 - McGriff
10.3 - L. Walker
9.7 - McGwire
7.6 - S. Sosa
5.5 - R. Palmeiro
5.5 - Mattingly
<< <i>On the HOF discussion, Jack Morris isn't getting in. I've always felt Trammell met the minimum criteria, but I'm very biased as he was a hometown hero for most of his career. Based on this article that's been circulating a lot lately, as well as all his career achievements, I'd be curious to hear non-Detroit fans' more objective take on Trammell's inclusion as compared with other shortstops who have made it in. >>
No to Trammell, Sweet Lou, and most definately Morris, if you start letting them in you will run out of room over the next 20 years. If you have to debate their entry in my mind they probably shouldn't be in.
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From 1967-1977 Tom Seaver had 203 wins and 81 saves! That is 2,980 innings pitched while maintaining a 2.48 ERA.
Before anyone starts scratching their head, those 'saves' come from him pitching the first eight innings, and then also pitching the ninth in what would be a save situation, and finishing it off.
You see, he took his role, and Gossages
Always remember that when people try to say closers are as valuable as Aces.
Also remember how interchangeable closers have been when teams so readily replace them and their closer still saves like 89% of the games(because most saves are fairly easy to convert).
Even the greatest closer of all, Rivera.
2011 Rivera 44 saves and five blown saves
2012 Soriano(in Rivera's stead) 42 saves and four blown saves
2013 Rivera 44 saves and three blown saves
So on the same team Rivera averaged 44 saves with four blown saves. Soriano 42 saves and four blown saves. Really the only difference was that Rivera had two more save opportunities. Considering that even the average closer converts like 88% of the saves given to them, I would say the Yankees didn't miss a beat with a replacement closer(finding him off their own roster!!).
This happens all the time with closers in baseball. Fans don't realize this, because a blown saves gets so much publicity(probably because it really is a pretty rare event).
You can even find a closer out of a crappy starter, that happens too
In what other position is your best player's production so easily replaced? Your #3 hitter goes down, nobody finds a guy from the minors or the bench to come in and hit .320 with 35 HR's(well, maybe in the live ball era they do, lol
Your Ace pitcher goes down, you simply do not find a replacement guy from the minors or bullpen to throw 7-9 innings worth of 2.35 ERA and 9K/Inn. It CAN happen, but rarely(unlike the closer). And yes, a team could get lucky with their replacement in getting a lot of wins if he gets crazy run support or something.
Obviously, there will be a few teams that could not find a suitable replacement, but that is just a few.
This isn't a knock on Rivera, he is the best at that role...and it takes more than saves to rate a pitcher. But the closer position is way overblown.
<< <i>
<< <i>probably the same people who thought hall of famer when watching Mariano Rivera >>
Could you please be more coherent in your responses. This isn't the cryptology forum. >>
no , grow up you cry baby
100% - Maddux
96.6 - Glavine
92.6 - F. Thomas
80.0 - Biggio
———————————
71.1 - Piazza
62.4 - Bagwell
59.1 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
57.7 - Raines
43.0 - Bonds
42.3 - Clemens
38.9 - Schilling
30.2 - Mussina
25.5 - E. Martinez
23.5 - Trammell
23.5 - L. Smith
14.8 - Kent
13.4 - McGriff
10.1 - L. Walker
10.1 - McGwire
8.1 - S. Sosa
6.0 - R. Palmeiro
<< <i>I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters. >>
LOL - I thought that was you. Always like to read your analysis. Interesting point about Seaver.
I will be curious to see how close the HOF vote is to the 27% that has already been found online.
<< <i>MLB.com has released the ballots of their guys and one of them left Maddux off. In fact, he voted ONLY for Morris. Jackass. >>
That moron should have his vote privilege revoked.
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<< <i>
<< <i>MLB.com has released the ballots of their guys and one of them left Maddux off. In fact, he voted ONLY for Morris. Jackass. >>
That moron should have his vote privilege revoked. >>
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KEN GURNICK, Dodgers beat reporter
Morris
Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Player Award votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.
<< <i>From MLB.com:
KEN GURNICK, Dodgers beat reporter
Morris
Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Player Award votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them. >>
Someone tell this idiot Morris himself played during the PED era..
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<< <i>
<< <i>I think a lot of people, when watching Smith, Gossage, and company...were thinking that they weren't good enough pitchers to be starters. >>
LOL - I thought that was you. Always like to read your analysis. Interesting point about Seaver.
I will be curious to see how close the HOF vote is to the 27% that has already been found online. >>
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