Question for the modern coin market makers or breakers.
Coin Finder
Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
I read somewhere that modern coins that are considered low mintage and thus "rare" are on a 5 year cycle. In other words, they take about 5 years to mature in their true market value. Is that still true? Or does it depend always on demand?
What causes demand to change from low to high demand for a modern coin?
Thanks!
What causes demand to change from low to high demand for a modern coin?
Thanks!
0
Comments
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
What causes demand to change? Could be anything: tastes, collecting habbits, interests, whatever.
Just like classic coins, there may be "absolute modern rarities" and "conditionally rare moderns". There is quite a bit of talk on the boards right now for example about the 2013 MacArthur $5 Gold Commem MS (with a possible mintage of roughly 5,700 or less) that sold out five days ago. I remember back in 1986 how incredibly popular and collectible the Statue of Liberty $5 Gold Commem Mint State coin was at the time with its 95,000+ mintage (as I chased around the coin shows trying to buy them)! Obviously, that coin is nothing more than a common $5 Gold Commem 25+ years later. But, will the 5,700 or less mintage on the MacArthur $5 Gold Commem be just the opposite result in 25 years time? You gotta love the 5,700 mintage, which is why the coin is up about 50%-100% in a week from the $400 Mint Issue Price! That sure did not take 5 years ... repeat it took 5 days to nearly double in price! Where will the coin be in 5 years? Who knows, but I certainly liked the coin's chances at $400 a week ago. Likewise, a set that has not been discussed nearly at all thus far is the 2013 Generals Profile set that had a 50,000 authorized mintage and it appears the Mint sold less than 11,000 when the "dust settled" three days ago. This is a very low mintage on an interesting specialty set. but will collectors pursue these limited edition sets in the years to come or not care about them? That was the "$74.95" question earlier this week when anyone could have stepped up a bought some or all of the 39,000+ unsold sets (and it appears very few folks seemed to care about it).
And, then there are conditionally rare moderns. For example, the relatively low mintage 'S' Mint quarters in 2012/2013 ... try finding them in MS68 grade. They are like a "needle in a haystack" as the esteemed (classic guy) "Oreville" discovered when he set out to grade some MS68's at the last FUN show with my daughter Lauren (he did find some MS65's though!) The demand for coins such as these might very well grow over a 5 year cycle (or even 10 years).
Just a quick comment and I look forward to reading the responses of other boards members. As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
P.S. I bought one of "flip chart" generals sets as a collector because I have enjoyed mint sets like this, and I wanted the MacArthur medal which was a bronze copy of the gold medal that Congress awarded to him in the early 1960s. Given the fact that the combined issue prices for the half dollar and the dollar were almost equal to the price of the "flip chart" I decided that it was a decent deal.
I like the Generals set as well. It should be interesting to see what those medals trade at if and when they begin getting graded at PCGS.
Wondercoin
Eventually the economy will recover, and demand and price levels for many of today's low mintage coins will increase. It would not take many newly interested collectors to overwhelm the available supply of modern coins with mintages in the low to medium four figures.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
So the demand is diluted because people generally only buy a design that they are attracted to and ignore the rest of the set. The fact that you can by the key dates in nearly perfect proof or uncirculated condition with mintages in the 14,000 to 16,000 range for around $200 each tells you that there are few set collectors.
Supply on the other hand is kind of interesting. When I first started collecting these coins 4 or 5 years ago I could go to a larger show like Long Beach and go home with two dozen different new coins. And there were a couple larger national dealers that kept a complete inventory of them. Putting together a set was just a matter of shelling out the cash. Not so much now. I see these coins here and there but no one has large inventories of them. This may also be due to the fact that they are a slower moving inventory but nevertheless they are not around in abundance.
From my own experience I know I can go through a show and find many more 1893-S or 1889-CC Morgans than I can the Atlanta Tennis, High Jump or Wheelchair commemorative dollars.
Off now. Going to go to the mint site and buy the new Civil Rights dollars. Keep the set up to date...
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
Supply on the other hand is kind of interesting. When I first started collecting these coins 4 or 5 years ago I could go to a larger show like Long Beach and go home with two dozen different new coins. And there were a couple larger national dealers that kept a complete inventory of them. Putting together a set was just a matter of shelling out the cash. Not so much now. I see these coins here and there but no one has large inventories of them. This may also be due to the fact that they are a slower moving inventory but nevertheless they are not around in abundance.
Coinhack, those are some interesting observations. It would appear that the Commem Silver Dollars are following the same trajectory as the Classic Commem Half Dollars did in the 1960's. You may have a coveted set on your hands as time goes by.
I knew it would happen.