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Poll - FED action tomorrow?

derrybderryb Posts: 36,837 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
I'm going with a sneak attack on what the FED pays banks to keep deposits on reserve. Maybe a token bond purchase reduction just to test the waters and put a little pressure on the bubbles.

Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

Comments

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    No taper. Bernanke does not believe that excessive accommodation has a downside. Sadly Yellen is his understudy.
  • vprvpr Posts: 606 ✭✭✭
    I think they will taper slightly. IMO, Bernanke isn't as clueless as a lot of folks here think. Jobs reports have been better than expected, which is what they said they were looking at.
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  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,678 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My gut feeling is no change, but a little more laid out plan and timeline for reduction in stimulus

    although, In the back of my mind , this would actually be a good time to start a small reduction to get the ball rolling, practically every one is pricing it in and expecting something. I think now is the time to start.
  • bestmrbestmr Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭
    I hope whatever they decide makes metals go down, personally.
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  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,994 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Only the window dressing reports look better. The reality is QE and ZIRP must continue lest the pension funds, IRAs, 401Ks, et all come back to reality and we accept that a depression is required to cleanse the slate. We know the Big Banks, 1%ers, and D.C. won't stand for that as long we can grease the wheels with trillions of USD pouring into the system. Expect The Fed's balance sheet to see the high side of $5 trillion soon.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How do you taper a ponzi?

    My guesses: Big Ben may drop buybacks $10b or so to look good as he heads for the exits but Yellen will run it up as necessary…$100B+/mo to "infinity." Feeding the final outcome...The Great Implosion. Ben will look conservative by comparison in the history books (that he'll ghost-write.)

    The Markets are running on momentum and money printing. The principle players won't stop this. People need the Soylent Greenbacks. J6P has to be manipulated to feel comfortably numb…again…to spend...

  • JohnnyCacheJohnnyCache Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nothing, business as usual

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  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,152 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Nothing, business as usual >>


    Agree. I doubt they'll want to "rock the boat".

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    I voted more than one above. This has long been touted as the month that a change of policy would be enacted. I guess I'm blindly believing the Fed will do what they said they would and what alot of analysts that know far more than I about this said they would do. But what do I know, I'm a follower more than a trendsetter image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The 'analysts' have been 'expecting' taper for a year. Just saying.
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>How do you taper a ponzi? >>



    Yup.

    And if Bernanke tapers today and god forbid the market falls 200 points, he will be called a Grinch for ruining Christmas.

    We have become weak.

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No radical change...same program and forecast for taper..with no definitive dates.... (might as well make another prediction - one of them might work out).....Cheers, RickO
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well what do you know, $10bil/mo decrease.

    HHUUUUUGGGGEEEEE

    pfft, nothing to see, carry on.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,231 ✭✭✭✭✭


    So they 10 billion ? Before they claimed 85 billion a month being purchased but it was running closer to 100 billion so if they knock off 10 billion will it drop to 90? image
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Looks like Ben's Wall Street buddies bailed him out again with a nice equities rally. Why not, he made them wealthy beyond imagination.

    No doubt that his corner office and $20,000,000 compensation package are awaiting him in New York, as they did for Tim Geitner.
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,172 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would hope that the market has already ractored in the tapering. Hence the recent declines. Could improve now that the shoe has dropped.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I would hope that the market has already ractored in the tapering. Hence the recent declines. Could improve now that the shoe has dropped. >>



    It no doubt will. Fed has created bubble markets since Volcker in the early 80's. They continue to prop the markets with each dip until it becomes too top heavy and fails, ending in a crash. 1987, 2000 and 2008 were the last three.

    Problem for this market is the longer term interest rates on the 10 and 30 year maturities. 10 is close to 3% and 30 is about 4%. Compare that to the SP500 dividend yield which is 1.9%. If and when 10 years return to the long term average of 4.5%, the dividend yield on the SP will look anemic and the market will fail once again.

    Another crash, another great recession and another savior president to bail us out.
  • jmbjmb Posts: 594 ✭✭✭


    << <i>So they 10 billion ? Before they claimed 85 billion a month being purchased but it was running closer to 100 billion so if they knock off 10 billion will it drop to 90? image >>



    Exactly. image

    Just like our Government baseline budgeting. We projected to spend $4 trillion for the fiscal year, but only spent $3.8 trillion, so we SAVED $.2 trillion. Oh, by the way, we spent $3.5 trillion the previos fiscal year. Huh ? So, in actuality they didn't save anything. They spent an additional $.3 trillion. image
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    From CNNMONEY:

    "The bond-buying program has become so large, it's expected to push the Fed's assets to $4 trillion this week -- money the Fed basically created out of thin air."

    Take out the word basically and I fully agree.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How do you taper a ponzi?

    My guesses: >>

    Big Ben may drop buybacks $10b or so to look good as he heads for the exits but Yellen will run it up as necessary…$100B+/mo to "infinity." Feeding the final outcome...The Great Implosion. Ben will look conservative by comparison in the history books (that he'll ghost-write.)

    The Markets are running on momentum and money printing. The principle players won't stop this. People need the Soylent Greenbacks. J6P has to be manipulated to feel comfortably numb…again…to spend...

    comrade make lucky guess, no. image

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    Masterful move by Ben B. Started the feared taper and the stock market loves it.
    New all time highs on Dow Jones and S&P 500.

    No inflation as far as the eye can see. Gold on the verge of new 3 year lows.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    9:50 AM the "day after", and it still looks like perceptions have been successfully managed. The US economy must be growing very well to need the continued money supply expansion. Redistribution of wealth, nothing less.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,837 ✭✭✭✭✭
    By "sacraficing" a small cutback in purchases the FED was able to minimize the focus on it's continued Zero Interest Rate Policy. The fact that ZIRP cannot be changed without turning the economy upside down should be the talking heads' topic of the day.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 28,344 ✭✭✭✭✭
    business as usual. i wonder what there hiding?
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