<< <i>In 1976, the league average OPS for a 2B was .650. Replacement level is figured somewhere about .550 or so(I am estimating that number). So Morgan is given a value of how far he is above that .550 level >>
It was actually .663 for second baseman, for third baseman it was .719, according to baseballreference.com. So if the Reds didn't have Morgan, they could have replaced him with a weak hitting second baseman. Or they could have moved Rose to second and replaced him with a third baseman with an ops about .040 or .050 higher, hypothetically. In 1976 Rose was a below average third baseman who hadn't played at second in eight years. It would have taken only about 12 to 15 extra hits per year to make up for the difference in ops. The defensive difference between Rose and other second baseman would have been at least that wide
This is why I don't like WAR. I apologize if this has been mentioned already. The thing about Morgan was that before he joined the Reds, his WAR was miniscule, and after he left the Reds, his WAR was terrible. So how do we know his offensive production and the things that went into his WAR wasn't due to his being on some great Reds teams? That is, he had plenty of protection in the batting order, so he got a lot of good pitches to hit. Once he didn't have this anymore, his stats plummeted.
<< <i>This is why I don't like WAR. I apologize if this has been mentioned already. The thing about Morgan was that before he joined the Reds, his WAR was miniscule, and after he left the Reds, his WAR was terrible. So how do we know his offensive production and the things that went into his WAR wasn't due to his being on some great Reds teams? That is, he had plenty of protection in the batting order, so he got a lot of good pitches to hit. Once he didn't have this anymore, his stats plummeted. >>
The idea that batters get 'protected' in lineups has been proven time and again to be false. No matter how many talking heads repeat it, there just simply isn't any evidence whatsoever that players in stacked lineups get 'protected' or 'better pitches to hit'. I hear it often, and it just isn't true. While it is true that players do get pitched around in certain situations, the idea that a player continually gets better pitches to hit because he's in a great lineup just is patently false.
<< <i>This is why I don't like WAR. I apologize if this has been mentioned already. The thing about Morgan was that before he joined the Reds, his WAR was miniscule, and after he left the Reds, his WAR was terrible. So how do we know his offensive production and the things that went into his WAR wasn't due to his being on some great Reds teams? That is, he had plenty of protection in the batting order, so he got a lot of good pitches to hit. Once he didn't have this anymore, his stats plummeted. >>
The idea that batters get 'protected' in lineups has been proven time and again to be false. No matter how many talking heads repeat it, there just simply isn't any evidence whatsoever that players in stacked lineups get 'protected' or 'better pitches to hit'. I hear it often, and it just isn't true. While it is true that players do get pitched around in certain situations, the idea that a player continually gets better pitches to hit because he's in a great lineup just is patently false. >>
Where is this proof? And how do you explain Morgan's dropoff away from the Reds?
Edit: I read some of the sabermetric articles on protection (like Link). However, I'm not convinced. I think they need to add more variables such as batting average with runners on base. And again, I'll go back to the example of Joe Morgan, where when he didn't play for the Reds, his offensive numbers typically stunk.
Comments
<< <i>In 1976, the league average OPS for a 2B was .650. Replacement level is figured somewhere about .550 or so(I am estimating that number). So Morgan is given a value of how far he is above that .550 level >>
It was actually .663 for second baseman, for third baseman it was .719, according to baseballreference.com. So if the Reds didn't have Morgan, they could have replaced him with a weak hitting second baseman. Or they could have moved Rose to second and replaced him with a third baseman with an ops about .040 or .050 higher, hypothetically. In 1976 Rose was a below average third baseman who hadn't played at second in eight years. It would have taken only about 12 to 15 extra hits per year to make up for the difference in ops. The defensive difference between Rose and other second baseman would have been at least that wide
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection
<< <i>This is why I don't like WAR. I apologize if this has been mentioned already. The thing about Morgan was that before he joined the Reds, his WAR was miniscule, and after he left the Reds, his WAR was terrible. So how do we know his offensive production and the things that went into his WAR wasn't due to his being on some great Reds teams? That is, he had plenty of protection in the batting order, so he got a lot of good pitches to hit. Once he didn't have this anymore, his stats plummeted. >>
The idea that batters get 'protected' in lineups has been proven time and again to be false. No matter how many talking heads repeat it, there just simply isn't any evidence whatsoever that players in stacked lineups get 'protected' or 'better pitches to hit'. I hear it often, and it just isn't true. While it is true that players do get pitched around in certain situations, the idea that a player continually gets better pitches to hit because he's in a great lineup just is patently false.
<< <i>
<< <i>This is why I don't like WAR. I apologize if this has been mentioned already. The thing about Morgan was that before he joined the Reds, his WAR was miniscule, and after he left the Reds, his WAR was terrible. So how do we know his offensive production and the things that went into his WAR wasn't due to his being on some great Reds teams? That is, he had plenty of protection in the batting order, so he got a lot of good pitches to hit. Once he didn't have this anymore, his stats plummeted. >>
The idea that batters get 'protected' in lineups has been proven time and again to be false. No matter how many talking heads repeat it, there just simply isn't any evidence whatsoever that players in stacked lineups get 'protected' or 'better pitches to hit'. I hear it often, and it just isn't true. While it is true that players do get pitched around in certain situations, the idea that a player continually gets better pitches to hit because he's in a great lineup just is patently false. >>
Where is this proof? And how do you explain Morgan's dropoff away from the Reds?
Edit: I read some of the sabermetric articles on protection (like Link). However, I'm not convinced. I think they need to add more variables such as batting average with runners on base. And again, I'll go back to the example of Joe Morgan, where when he didn't play for the Reds, his offensive numbers typically stunk.
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection
Before the Reds? He had three seasons of 130 or higher OPS+ in Houston..
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.