Newman coin prices

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 12:55AM

I was having several conversations with dealers and collectors regarding predicting the prices realize for the Newman coins. Also, I was reading several articles on the same topic. Most feel the coins will realize moon prices. I realize that the Newman sale have some very common coins as well as some unbelievable killer coins. My question is after the dust settles and the auction is over, how much of a premium will the Newman pedigree command? I tend to notice that Eliasberg and Norweb averages 5 to 10% over what non-pedigree coins command. Personally, I feel that many of the Newman coins will realize alot higher than if it was coming from my collection - but in say 3 to 5 years will they still command such premiums? I predict the Newman coins will tend to average the same 5 to 10% premium as Eliasberg and Norweb. Any thoughts?

crypto79 · October 13, 2013 1:05AM

I believe the biggest inflator of prices will be the often optimistic grading that took place ATS. There will be a lot of unhappy "cross at grade" customers. That said the rarity if some of the coins will push many opportunity costs through the roof. After those two factors you will see a little sale/pedigree fever kick in on the real common stuff.

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 1:17AM

I haven't viewed the coins yet and I am planning on viewing them soon, so I really can't comment on whether the coins are optimistically graded. In the end, I believe the prices of coins are solely based on supply & demand. If there is demand and a shortage of supply, then prices tend to go up. Newman coins have been off the market for many years so now there is a possibility of getting some really cool coins. Thats worth a couple of more bucks as well. Thats what this thread is trying to discuss.

ambro51 · October 13, 2013 1:19AM

Superior coins, Superior Pedigree...I think you already know the answer

BillJones · October 13, 2013 1:24AM

I got a taste of what the prices realized will be in the last Newman auction group. I bid a price that was in line with previous auction on a "ring dollar" pattern piece in copper-nickel that had a PR-66 with tiny black and green flyspecks. The piece went for almost double my bid.

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 1:29AM

So Bill - do you think that 100% premium will hold up in the future. Or will the coin have the increase in value to offset the premium?

MidLifeCrisis · October 13, 2013 1:33AM

<< I got a taste of what the prices realized will be in the last Newman auction group. I bid a price that was in line with previous auction on a "ring dollar" pattern piece in copper-nickel that had a PR-66 with tiny black and green flyspecks. The piece went for almost double my bid. >>

That sounds like a pretty rare coin. How often does one come to auction? When was the last time?

It just seems to me like a rare pattern may not be the best example to predict prices realized for the overall collection.

TahoeDale · October 13, 2013 1:55AM

I do not think so--at least on most of the coins.

For a few of the truly rare and beautiful--of course. But an NGC 65 that is a 63 at PC? some premium above 63 money, but nothing close to 65!
For those who just want the slab, on a circ coin, premiums will prevail. Twice the value? Not likely.

I believe clearer minds will prevail at the sale, than is being promoted today.

tradedollarnut · October 13, 2013 2:01AM

I dunno. I don't think the provenance is going to add to the value - rather the coins themselves are going to cause a feeding frenzy. Very few that I have looked at have a grade that I exactly agree with but it's not really going to matter. These days a conservatively graded CAC stickered PCGS coin brings double moon money - I think a pretty market graded NGC coin is gonna bring double moon money for the equivalent quality. How that matches up to the grade on the NGC insert is a completely different matter and is going to vary coin by coin.

keyman64 · October 13, 2013 2:16AM

I know Eliasberg Mercury Dimes sold for more than double what they should have and then when some of them were crossed over to PCGS they dropped in grade which means they were sold at multiples of what they were worth....worth to me anyway. I think some people are buried. I see the same thing happening here with the common material. When it comes to the less than common stuff, especially when the prices are above the bidiot level, say 10K to 20K, then I think there will be a premium for the truly nice pieces but very few at that level, if any, will get buried in the coins.

Just my guess...

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 2:21AM

TDN - I truly believe the the coin market has aleast 2 tiers - those that get moon money and those that don't. CAC has helped find those coins. I don't think all of Newman's coins are moon money coins. So some collectors may get stuck paying too much? Hence the question for the premium.

MidLifeCrisis · October 13, 2013 2:23AM

Marketing hype and his reputation in the hobby will carry the day. People will pay up because they're his coins.

Now, should they? Well, that's a different question.

tradedollarnut · October 13, 2013 2:28AM

<< TDN - I truly believe the the coin market has aleast 2 tiers - those that get moon money and those that don't. CAC has helped find those coins. I don't think all of Newman's coins are moon money coins. So some collectors may get stuck paying too much? Hence the question for the premium. >>

Absolutely, positively some will pay too much. And almost all will pay "too much". It's understanding the difference between those two that's the trick.

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 2:51AM

<< 

<< TDN - I truly believe the the coin market has aleast 2 tiers - those that get moon money and those that don't. CAC has helped find those coins. I don't think all of Newman's coins are moon money coins. So some collectors may get stuck paying too much? Hence the question for the premium. >>

Absolutely, positively some will pay too much. And almost all will pay "too much". It's understanding the difference between those two that's the trick.

>>

So - how can one learn the difference between those two? Help us regular collectors save us from getting buried!!!!

tradedollarnut · October 13, 2013 3:05AM

<< 

<< 

<< TDN - I truly believe the the coin market has aleast 2 tiers - those that get moon money and those that don't. CAC has helped find those coins. I don't think all of Newman's coins are moon money coins. So some collectors may get stuck paying too much? Hence the question for the premium. >>

Absolutely, positively some will pay too much. And almost all will pay "too much". It's understanding the difference between those two that's the trick.

>>

So - how can one learn the difference between those two? Help us regular collectors save us from getting buried!!!! >>

Research, grading ability and luck

Research: how often does this particular coin come along? What is the true current value of such a coin? It may not have traded now or ever so you may have to extrapolate from other similar coins

Grading ability: what is truly the quality of the coin - not what the insert says. What would that coin bring in a PCGS CAC holder? What grade, if any, will it CAC? What's it worth if it NEVER crosses.

Luck: who is your competition? Do they already have an example? Will they fill up early and have to cut down on their buying? Will that keep the price down?

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 3:11AM

TDN - excellent, Excellent and EXCELLENT words of great advice!

mozin · October 13, 2013 3:34AM

Many of us are so turned off by NGC coins not crossing at grade, even with the CAC sticker, that we will bid very cautiously, if at all. The NGC holders are pretty, but they do not fit into the PCGS Registry.

dbldie55 · October 13, 2013 3:52AM

I relate the question to 1883 No Cent Eliasberg Nickels. The 1996 auction had 2.5 rolls of these, and these seem to bring over a 100% premium over the non-pedigree coins many times.

These are nothing special, and I doubt Eliasberg ever looked at them.

So, will the common Newman coins continue such a trend seems to be the OP question.

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 4:01AM

<< Many of us are so turned off by NGC coins not crossing at grade, even with the CAC sticker, that we will bid very cautiously, if at all. The NGC holders are pretty, but they do not fit into the PCGS Registry. >>

There are alot of very nice coins residing in NGC holders - So if you are collecting bust coinage and see a very nice bust coin in a NGC holder and it crosses 1 grade lower - then that should be reflected in the price. Why should you limiit yourself - its tough enough to find a nice original toned coin these days.....

BillJones · October 13, 2013 4:09AM

<< So Bill - do you think that 100% premium will hold up in the future. Or will the coin have the increase in value to offset the premium? >>

I thought that the coin was overgraded by a point, so I don't see this holding up in the near future. This is especially true when the down grade is due to black and green spots.

mozin · October 13, 2013 4:09AM

What about all those Bust coins in NGC holders that do not cross at any grade at all? There are lots of such NGC coins out there right now. Crossing at a grade lower is not so bad, but no cross at all is nasty business.

BillJones · October 13, 2013 4:14AM

<< 

<< I got a taste of what the prices realized will be in the last Newman auction group. I bid a price that was in line with previous auction on a "ring dollar" pattern piece in copper-nickel that had a PR-66 with tiny black and green flyspecks. The piece went for almost double my bid. >>

That sounds like a pretty rare coin. How often does one come to auction? When was the last time?

It just seems to me like a rare pattern may not be the best example to predict prices realized for the overall collection. >>

It shows up every couple of years from what I've seen. The piece was a gold dollar pattern in copper-nickel. First, I think the market for patterns is a bit slow right now. Second, the fact that it is not made in metal that the coin would have been made in had the design been adapted would effect the value. Third, the coin has a big hole in the center, as made, which does not leave much room for a design. In other words the thing is ugly. I had a historical interest in it because of the issues that surrounded the tiny size of the gold dollar. The perferated planchet was a possible solution to the size problem.

EastonCollection · October 13, 2013 4:23AM

To date, I only bought 1 bust dime in a NGC that didnt cross to pcgs either at that grade or 1 lower. No biggie deal as i really like that coin. I even showed that coin to Don Willis and he was surprised that it didnt cross. I just look for originally toned bust coins. So far to date, I guess i am lucky so far. PS - I do have several NGC coins that I havent tried to cross that I am happy with. They could be part of my registry set but i chose not to cross them.

scoobydeux · October 13, 2013 9:01AM

<< I know Eliasberg Mercury Dimes sold for more than double what they should have and then when some of them were crossed over to PCGS they dropped in grade which means they were sold at multiples of what they were worth....worth to me anyway. I think some people are buried. I see the same thing happening here with the common material. When it comes to the less than common stuff, especially when the prices are above the bidiot level, say 10K to 20K, then I think there will be a premium for the truly nice pieces but very few at that level, if any, will get buried in the coins.

Just my guess... >>

Ditto in regards to the Jules Reiver sale in 2006.

<< < Many of us are so turned off by NGC coins not crossing at grade, even with the CAC sticker, that we will bid very cautiously, if at all. The NGC holders are pretty, but they do not fit into the PCGS Registry. >>

There are alot of very nice coins residing in NGC holders - So if you are collecting bust coinage and see a very nice bust coin in a NGC holder and it crosses 1 grade lower - then that should be reflected in the price. Why should you limiit yourself - its tough enough to find a nice original toned coin these days..... >>

Herein lies the problem--a very nice bust coin in an NGC holder that may cross at one grade lower (or 2 grades lower, or "no grade") is often priced at the higher grade minus a 15-25% discount--a suckers game for say an generic NGC 65 cbh priced at $9500 when the PCGS list price of 65's is $12500, with 64's at $3750

CalGold · October 13, 2013 2:19PM

<< Herein lies the problem--a very nice bust coin in an NGC holder that may cross at one grade lower (or 2 grades lower, or "no grade") is often priced at the higher grade minus a 15-25% discount--a suckers game for say an generic NGC 65 cbh priced at $9500 when the PCGS list price of 65's is $12500, with 64's at $3750 >>

Refreshing to see a little reminder of how the real world works.

CG

AnkurJ · October 13, 2013 2:25PM

I would think close to Eliasberg levels.

1Bustcollector · October 14, 2013 5:15AM

I've spent a few minutes doing some background review of "MY" selection of Newman quarters that I like (draped bust and large size capped bust only - have not looked/researched the small size capped bust)...with that, I reviewed our book ( Early Quarter Dollars Of The United States Mint 1796-1838 - By: Rea, Peterson, Karoleff and Kovach Jr.) "published in 2010." Keep in mind "only a few minutes were spent doing this research. Below is a listing of 10 coins. I pulled information from our book concerning census back then. It may have changed due to re-grading "or" new examples that were not located previously. Remember, I am not going into much "meat" in this research.....take it for what's it worth. I think I have the grades listed correctly, but recheck. These are the coins I would buy.

My last comment: Knock yourself out and assign your future PCGS grade to these. I graded these back in 2007 (see our book) when there was no reference to compare. It was difficult....We all have it a bit easier now because grades are already assigned, do we not? As a side note: I did not have a chance to regrade the Newman coins since 2007. And remember, Mr. Newman or Mr. Reiver should not be dinged for grading coins. They are/were true collectors!

1796 B-2 (NGC-67+*) Per 2010 census, tied for finest known in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS at a lower grade then it may not be the finest. PCGS plate coin, Knoxville example, PCGS-67; PCGS plate coin cert #09006459 as PCGS-66; Foxfire was an NGC-66. Colonel Green owned at least 2 examples; Newman B-1 (not available) and Newman B-2 (available). Not a Browning Plate coin. A stunning coin!

1806/5 B-1 (NGC-66*) Per 2010 census, the finest known in a NGC slab. Depending at where it crosses..... it may still be the finest. If it crosses say 2 points lower then it will not be the finest. I really like this coin and feel it would cross only 1 point lower? Comments. Not a Browning Plate coin. An overdate Redbook variety. A better strike.

1806 B-3 (NGC-66) Per 2010 census, the finest known in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS 1 point lower then it would be tied to three others. I really like this example. It is a common variety but on of the nicest toned! RCW had a white NGC-65 at one time, maybe still does?

1807 B-2 (NGC-66*) Per 2010 census, the finest in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS 1 point lower then it still would be tied for finest. I really like this coin. It is my second favorite. It wouldn't matter to me of 1 point. Comments? Not a Browning Plate coin.

1815 B-1 (NGC-67+*) Per 2010 census, tied for finest in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS 1 point lower then it would not be the finest. This is an extremely nice example! I like it, wouldn't matter to me if it is a point lower. Comments? Not a Browning plate coin.

1818/5 B-1 (NGC-67*) Per 2010 census, finest known in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS 1 point lower is will be tied for finest known. I like this coin despite the reverse roller streak. A beautiful toned example! Not a Browning Plate coin. Comments? An overdate Redbook variety.

1818 B-8 PF (NGC PF-67) Per 2010 census, finest known in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS as a Proof then it will still be the finest Proof or Business Strike for that matter. If it goes 2 points lower, it is still the finest! The Smithsonian has not been professionally graded. This example's Provenance goes back to Cleneay sale of 1890 AND I believe US Coin Co 1915. It is a Browning Plate coin!

1825 B-1 (NGC-64*) Per 2010 census, finest known in a NGC slab. If it crosses to PCGS 1 point lower then it is tied for finest - Provenance to Gardner-Eliasberg. R-5 rarity rating. Not a Browning Plate coin. A very nice rare example! A Redbook Overdate variety.

1825 B-3 (NGC-66+) Per 2010 census, finest known in a NGC slab. If it drops 1 point lower via PCGS then it will be tied for finest know to a NGC example. This is a Browning Plate coin. It is traced back to US Coin co. 1913.

1828 B-3 (NGC-67*) My favorite coin! Per 2010 census it is the finest known. Even if it crosses to a PCGS-64 it will stay the finest known. R-5 as a rarity rating. This is my Wow coin. An overdate Redbook variety.

MrEureka · October 14, 2013 5:55AM

When the Newman patterns were sold, I felt that premiums ran for zero to 100%, depending on the coin. And as for the coins that brought big premiums, I would think that the premiums were not the result of bidders intentionally paying a big premium for the provenance. More likely, the premiums were largely a function of hundreds of bidders entering the pattern market just for the night, because it was a special event.

1Bustcollector · October 14, 2013 6:19AM

I have alway's felt one should have the confidence to purchase the right coin for themselves - if it happens to have a nice Provenance then that is a plus, but should not bear much weight in your decision. Buy the coin and consider the holder/pedigree. Perform your research the best you can.

MrEureka · October 14, 2013 7:02AM

I have alway's felt one should have the confidence to purchase the right coin for themselves - if it happens to have a nice Provenance then that is a plus, but should not bear much weight in your decision. Buy the coin and consider the holder/pedigree. Perform your research the best you can.

While I agree that one should not let the provenance of a coin sway one's opinion of that coin, a provenance can have real monetary value to a bidder. For example, I will gladly pay a premium for any important Browning-Newman Bust Quarter. Not because it makes the coin better, but because the connection of that particular coin to those particular numismatists has value to me.

1Bustcollector · October 14, 2013 7:21AM

Oh, we are in agreement. As I stated "consider the holder/Pedigree." I like pedigrees, but it has to be a nice coin first. Some also like to collect by Pedigree! Two of those coins I have in my list of top 10 are Browning Plate coins (among other Pedigrees, that is).

I can't wait to see the auction results!

EastonCollection · October 14, 2013 9:52AM

When I started this thread, I knew it was going to have alot of interesting conversation but this is great! I really like reading everyone's comments on this. Also, we gto some big shots to weigh in as well. Keep it going. PS - I love the 1828 B-3 in MS67. Hope I am lucky enough to get it!!!!

MacCrimmon · October 14, 2013 10:14AM

I promise all of you I will alleviate everyone's angst and worry about grades/crossovers, etc. by buying every single Newman coin that I like, regardless. And I'll place them in a Trust for another 100 years, but I'll show them from time to time at major conventions ...................

NOW, all that's needed is a 5+1 matching POWERBALL TICKET !!!

1Bustcollector · October 14, 2013 11:18AM

LOL! Ha! Ha! I love that comment! That would be something!

Newman coin prices

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