Crossover vs Crackout

wfojonny

Let's just say, hypothetically speaking, that I have a semi-valuable coin graded MS65 in NGC plastic.
I think this coin has a shot at MS66.
If I were to send it to PCGS and ask for a crossover, is there ANY WAY that I would get an upgrade?
I know that it is theoretically possible, but does it actually ever happen?
Anybody have a good experience?
Or should I just crack it out? Something I hate doing . . . . .

MICHAELDIXON

Reading your post: "I think this coin has a shot at MS66." It does not appear you think the coin is a definite upgrade; you sound iffy. If this is the case send it in for crossover, as it might come back lower if you crack it out. If it is a definite upgrade, crack it out and send it in.

barberkeys

My experience has been you have a better chance of a cross with a nice ANACS coin (not a mutually exclusive phrase), than with an NGC coin.

And cracking a 65 is always a gamble.

ricko

If you are not confident in your grading skills, take it to a few who are good at grading.... use their inputs to help with your decision. Cheers, RickO

CoinRaritiesOnline

<< <i>If I were to send it to PCGS and ask for a crossover, is there ANY WAY that I would get an upgrade? I know that it is theoretically possible, but does it actually ever happen? >>



Yes, it does happen, but it is not the way to bet.

IrishMikey

<< <i>My experience has been you have a better chance of a cross with a nice ANACS coin (not a mutually exclusive phrase), than with an NGC coin.

And cracking a 65 is always a gamble. >>


I have had the same experience the past few years with ANACS vs. NGC. As for cracking, if I am comfortable
with what I am seeing, out come the pliers. No pain, no gain.

AMRC

It happens all the time. About 27% of the time according to our host. I have had some great scores, even a an upgrade, with NGC to PCGS crossovers. I have had some that did not go that left me scratching my head.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

NGC to PCGS crossovers are just as much clever marketing as it is anything else. Expect things to not make much sense.

TPRC

I am not a fan of NGC, at least not for the last 10 years or so. That said, my last crossover submission last year included an 1818/7 bust half that went from NGC 55 to PCGS 58. It was a very nice coin. Not the norm, but it does happen and, personally, I don't think it matters much if it is raw or slabbed. I do think that PCGS is slightly more conservative with crossovers because of the concern of what the plastic might be hiding.

roadrunner

<< <i>It happens all the time. About 27% of the time according to our host. I have had some great scores, even a an upgrade, with NGC to PCGS crossovers. I have had some that did not go that left me scratching my head. >>



27% is a generality and encompasses very common coins like generic MS62-MS65 Morgan dollars, Walkers, Buffs, Mercs, etc. which probably have a higher cross rate than the average.
My own experiences in gem 19th century type shows a cross rate in the 0-10% range...which includes stickered coins as well. Actually, I don't see any differences for stickered vs.
non-stickered gem type. My recommendations that if an NGC coin is a solid cross candidate, the only way to get decent odds is to crack it out. And in that case you better be sure the
coin has no potential problems that might result in a no grade. Just because one TPG holdered it doesn't mean the coin couldn't come back no grade. I've had it happen both ways. The
variabilities in getting a coin to cross are so plentiful that coming up with a simple rule to cover all bases is essentially impossible. Some variables have nothing to do with the coin.

chumley

I went 3 for 3 on ngc crossovers this year but I busted them out and submitted raw

DennisH

I'm a wuss when it comes to crack-outs. I occasionally do it with cheap coins, but never with "semi-valuable" stuff because of the potential risk of a bodybag. I agree with the "no guts, no glory" philosophy, but everyone has a different tolerance for disappointment. Mine is low; I sleep better taking the cautious approach of in-holder crossovers (I've had several go up over many years), followed by a regrade try or two if I think it is appropriate.

wfojonny

Thanks guys, for all the good replies. Lots of experience here to tap into!

DIMEMAN

I am a firm believer of cracking out ngc coins and not doing a crossover.

illini420

Something that you also must consider when making the crackout vs. crossover decision is the new guarantee premium. Depending on the value of the coin, the 1% guarantee premium that applies on a crossover could be significant. There is no 1% guarantee premium on the same coin if you crack it out first.

Coinflip

the fees are geared towards crack-outs and its my reasoning that they seem to go more that way

lusterlover

I have had the good fortune of crossing an NGC coin and receiving an upgrade - from PF 65 to PR 66 no less. So it can happen and not just at the circulated grades. Having said that, I'm going "Commando" this time as I cracked out my latest submission before crossing. I think the aforementioned guarantee premium is definately a factor. I'll let you know in approximately 13-16 business days.....

lkeigwin

Crossing requires a little caution on PCGS's part. They need to be conservative. Things can be concealed by holders.
Lance.

panther

Be care full how you play the crack out game. It could hurt your feelings a bit. This one almost made me quit collecting.

Bought off Heritage MS-67 NGC [URL=http://s1091.photobucket.com/user/Panthersgd/media/37ngc3.jpg.html][/URL]

(cracked and sent it in raw. Came back MS-65 Secure Plus Cert # 26395215 Picture is still there

[URL=http://s1091.photobucket.com/user/Panthersgd/media/ms-65.png.html][/URL]

Sent it in again , Came back MS-66 Cert # 26506312

Then I sold it on Ebay for $150.00. new owner cracked it and got it to grade where it belongs MS-67 Cert# 27746445. Now for sale on a dealers website for $1295.00

It quarter must have changed in the holder LOL

Coinflip

PCGS made three times off the grading tho

mozin

My answer to crossing over to PCGS is simple, only buy PCGS graded coins. I totally gave up on buying anything else. Yes, I am a PCGS Registry guy.

wfojonny

I made my decision, hypothetically speaking of course.
At the end I have decided that the coin does not deserve a "66". NGC got it right @ 65, would be silly for me to crack it out.
But a good discussion, and thank you guys for a couple of PMs as well.
Certainly I enjoyed the hobby in the late sixties, pulling silver Washingtons from circulation and visiting the local coin shop to pick up the odd rare date. I recall (vividly) my father stopped by said coin shop (unbeknownst to me) and picked up the last coin I needed to complete my set. Maybe it was a 36-D. He did that as an "atta-boy" to me for showing the tenacity to complete a daunting project such as completing a set of Washingtons at the age of 15 or so. Funny, I loved him for doing it, but the act itself was a bit disappointing for me inasmuch as I was looking forward to mowing another yard or some such to be able to complete the set myself. Hard to explain . . . . .
But I digress. . . . . . collecting was fun back then as grading was (at my level) not so very important. Some of my stuff was "Uncirculated". Yay! Most of it I pulled from circulation.
I will say this . . . . . . I have a growing uneasiness in the hobby as a whole and where the grading game has taken us. No question is is changed forever.
My uneasiness stems from the fact that even if the reality is not there, the potential is most certainly there for favoritism. And I will leave it there before I say too much.
Again, thanks guys for all of the considered responses.

Bochiman

I can fully understand.

I have done the same thing a few times....."ownership adds a point" and felt it should upgrade....then, sat on it for awhile, tried to get more objective, and never sent it in as I agreed with the stated grade.
A few, however, I have done raw thinking I just wanted it slabbed, and they got slabbed a little higher than I thought.

Today, I just packaged up 2 submissions. One for crossovers (coins I don't want to risk something happening or remaining raw, just in case.....toned proof copper can be tricky sometimes, imho), and a second for raw (6 of the 8 were cracked out by me tonight....NGC and PCI slabs). I think the NGC may have actually been a little undergraded, but if they come back what they were previously graded, I am fine. The PCI would be fine in the same grade. I want to get some consistency for our sets and sometimes that means throwing good money away to get them into PCGS plastic even at the same grade.

Note: "Throwing good money away" is subjective. I had to round out my 8 coin voucher and I also felt that the coins I cracked are all solid and would do better raw where the graders aren't worried about any surprises that the plastic may cover. When I buy coins, I do try to "buy the coin, note the holder", so the only ones I may worry about are sliders and certain toned coins.

Also, I have a NGC MS66 toned IHC. I, personally, believe it should cross. I am not going to risk cracking it out though. PCGS doesn't have a MS66 for that date (1881BN) and grade and only 14 in the grade under.
I bought it for the coin and the look, so if it has to remain NGC, it will. I wish it would go PCGS (tried once for a crossover at same grade), but not willing to play the risk game.

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Cougar1978

If I am looking for an upgrade I will crack it out. With an expensive coin this is a gamble.

I recently cracked a PCGS 63 PL Dollar OGH and dipped it. The dip removed some haze and improved it considerably. I sent it to NGC last week and feel it has a shot at 64 PL or perhaps better. As this was a coin I had $122 not much of a gamble.

39Special

Crackout all the way. I only try crossovers if I want to protect the coin's value in its present grade and holder and am not looking for an upgrade. I've had a lot of success at crackouts; my best effort was 6/8 coins on a submission that upgraded. I even had an NGC AU58 upgrade to PCGS MS63! It can take a long time to find those coins you really feel are no-brainer upgrades. In most cases, I've cracked out coins that I knew with certainty would at least make the grade of the original holder, and felt the risk of a downgrade was so low that it was worth the reward of the upgrade. I think I've only had two or three downgrades out of 50+ crackouts (one was a point downgrade, the other two came back "AT" (which was a real bummer of course). It's fun to try but I always get nervous removing coins from the old plastic!!!

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wfojonny

Scott, you magnificent bast . . . umm . . . fellow; I read your book!
Really, I did . . . .

DennisH

Coin collecting changed profoundly and irrevocably the day the first clad coins appeared in circulation. Within several months the ability to build sets of dimes, quarters and halves from the bank was gone forever.