***September 2013 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
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This is a continuation of the monthly trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures.
Here are some recent weekly charts as well as a chart of ETF holdings. Even though gold prices have come back, ETF holdings have not even started to recover. Gold sentiment is still low.
Here are some recent weekly charts as well as a chart of ETF holdings. Even though gold prices have come back, ETF holdings have not even started to recover. Gold sentiment is still low.
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I guess the lessons of 2008 fell on deaf ears. Wall Street continues to determine how it will be regulated. Not hard to do when when they hold key positions in Washington.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This gold market does have some of the feel as in 1979 during the middle eastern turmoil then, but it seems more subdued. Ironically, I think it's actually more serious this time in terms of the powder keg potential. Worse yet, I think it's being done as a diversionary tactic to keep the public from focusing on the attempts to derail obamacare and to address the debt ceiling debate meaningfully.
Both the US and Russia have large fleets converging on the Mediterranean and the Gulf. How either will withdraw without a major exchange taking place and without "losing face" seems to be less and less likely. Oh, and China is coming in as well.
What this means to me is that a surprise could happen that affects the gold market (and the rest of the financial markets) practically overnight or over a weekend.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The Syrian affect will be on whether the petrodollar protection can continue by taking down current Syrian leadership on behalf of the Saudis. The natural gas pipeline that Quatar wants to run through Syria demands a new Syrian regime before gaining approval to do so. Russian NG power in europe is greatly threatened by middle east NG reaching the europe that Russia currently supplies, thus the strong opposition to replacing Syrian leadership. Again, the middle east is about protecting the dollar and supplying US military power for the Saudis. The fact that the Saudis will "fund" any US involvement in Syria makes our boys and girls in uniform nothing short of mercenaries. Look for some in uniform to say "not this time." >>
Yeah. It's all about future gas pipelines running through Syria, not chemical weapons. Russia, China, US, etc. all have a big stake here to determine how things play out over the next 10-20 yrs. And with that pipeline is also the issue of how the energy gets paid for (ie petrodollars or the new $100 BILL backed BRICS development bank)
I'm not a big believer in the conspiracy theories about the elite, but I like to be aware of what they are to look for evidence and correlation. Supposedly the elite have a plan for several countries to fall in what I believe is an overall destabilization plan, and Syria is next on the list and they are behind on their timeline for this to happen as Syria hasn't fallen as fast as planned/expected. To me, this so far seems to make the most sense as to why some politicians are so fired up about this and willing to go against strong popular opinion against any action there.
Is this a misquote?
Are you serious?
With all do respect I disagree.
Wow, what a complex world we live in.
What happened to the massive sell off of the equities markets predicted for last week or the week before?
Rant over.
I appreciate your and all posts?
Best.
<< <i>"US is on the side of Al Qaeda"
Is this a misquote?
Are you serious?
With all do respect I disagree. >>
Many of the Syrian rebels that Washington desires to support in overthrowing their government are well known to be members of Al Qaeda. Years ago, we actually supported and funded Bin Laden in Afghanistan when he was fighting the Soviet invaders. US is known to support anyone that it believes shares its short term goals. Long term repercussions of such support are seldom considered and often prove to be serious mistakes.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>"US is on the side of Al Qaeda"
Is this a misquote?
Are you serious?
With all do respect I disagree. >>
Many of the Syrian rebels that Washington desires to support in overthrowing their government are well known to be members of Al Qaeda. Years ago, we actually supported and funded Bin Laden in Afghanistan when he was fighting the Soviet invaders. US is known to support anyone that it believes shares its short term goals. Long term repercussions of such support are seldom considered and often prove to be serious mistakes. >>
That is a very succinct, and accurate, summary of US foreign policy.
We know some are tied to Al Quaeda.
That is why we still have not shipped arms to rebels yet despite Obama's go ahead months ago.
It remains challanging to distinguish who is who.
To state that "The US is on the side of Al Quaeda" is not supported by any facts.
If you have them, present them .
I still expect stocks to fall. It hasn't been as fast and as far as I've expected but it is still coming, and sometimes holding out means the market will catch up with a bigger, faster, harsher move. So far it looks like the recent move up just retraced the last move down. SP500 is loaded with energy and is ready for a move next week which of course, I expect to go down.
I closed my gold positions, I am going to wait for a good re-entry point, which would be a dip to the 1340's with perhaps a spike lower.
In reality it is many shades of grey.
There is no winning side for the US to align itself with.
The best thing for us politically is a protracted draw/stand off for as long as possible.
Will probably bail on a move under $1320.
<< <i>I just love how this thread always get's action AFTER a move. You wanna impress me? Make a call on what it's going to do BEFORE it does solely based on this technical approach. >>
<< <i>I just love how this thread always get's action AFTER a move. You wanna impress me? Make a call on what it's going to do BEFORE it does solely based on this technical approach. >>
You have to read between the lines just a tad, but when I say I'm going long that means I expect gold to go up. I also mentioned a target of 1440-1450. So what are you complaining about?
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<< <i>NY Times article written by Putin! >>
Stratfor: Syria crisis not ending, only evolving
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>NY Times article written by Putin! >>
Well written and worth reading. Whether there's an ounce of sincerity in it is hard to tell. Those damn KGB agents sometimes have ulterior motives.
I mean no dissing. I just have no idea what info you are stating.
Gold or silver up, down, short term, long term, time frames please.
The techno gargon seems like noise to me.
Again, not dissing, just asking for a clearification.
Thanks in advance.
<< <i>With all due respect, can you please clearly and simply state what you are trying to say without all the "ifs", "usuallys" etc.
I mean no dissing. I just have no idea what info you are stating.
Gold or silver up, down, short term, long term, time frames please.
The techno gargon seems like noise to me.
Again, not dissing, just asking for a clearification.
Thanks in advance. >>
And that in a nutshell is the problem I have with technical (chart) analysis - you gotta correctly line up a bunch of "if's." Thank you mariner.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"This Concept Release on Risk Controls and System Safeguards for Automated Trading Environments (‘‘Concept Release’’) reflects the Commission’s continuing commitment to the safety and soundness of U.S. derivatives markets in a time of rapid technological change. The Concept Release serves as a platform for cataloguing existing industry practices, determining their efficacy and implementation to date, and evaluating the need for additional measures, if any. The Commission welcomes all public comments."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>With all due respect, can you please clearly and simply state what you are trying to say without all the "ifs", "usuallys" etc.
I mean no dissing. I just have no idea what info you are stating.
Gold or silver up, down, short term, long term, time frames please.
The techno gargon seems like noise to me.
Again, not dissing, just asking for a clearification.
Thanks in advance. >>
1. I think gold is going to $1344 early next week due to XXXX reasons. Consider that a modest pull back after the drop from $1369 to $1305.
2. All bets off by Wed when FOMC utters something new. Thursday and Friday are wildcard options expiration days for precious metal stocks/ETF's. Another big wildcard.
3. The week after next could be as crazy as next Wed-Friday with gold futures options expiration. So gold will be highly volatile for about one week from next Wed to the
following Wed. Might see price swing from anywhere from $1275-$1423. It could be nuts. Right now I'm only looking ahead through Tuesday morning.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I just love how this thread always get's action AFTER a move. You wanna impress me? Make a call on what it's going to do BEFORE it does solely based on this technical approach. >>
You have to read between the lines just a tad, but when I say I'm going long that means I expect gold to go up. I also mentioned a target of 1440-1450. So what are you complaining about? >>
I think PC did a great job with this move. He said when he bought and when he sold. And made a nice profit while explaining his reasoning. He gets an A+ from me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>With all due respect, can you please clearly and simply state what you are trying to say without all the "ifs", "usuallys" etc.
I mean no dissing. I just have no idea what info you are stating.
Gold or silver up, down, short term, long term, time frames please.
The techno gargon seems like noise to me.
Again, not dissing, just asking for a clearification.
Thanks in advance. >>
1. I think gold is going to $1344 early next week due to XXXX reasons. Consider that a modest pull back after the drop from $1369 to $1305.
2. All bets off by Wed when FOMC utters something new. Thursday and Friday are wildcard options expiration days for precious metal stocks/ETF's. Another big wildcard.
3. The week after next could be as crazy as next Wed-Friday with gold futures options expiration. So gold will be highly volatile for about one week from next Wed to the
following Wed. Might see price swing from anywhere from $1275-$1423. It could be nuts. Right now I'm only looking ahead through Tuesday morning. >>
Thanks for the "plain English" version of your analysis. It's greatly appreciation by us "Commoners."
Chart of gold vs the DOW. Classic pattern development. Clearly shows the dramatic outperformance of gold vs stocks from 2001 to 2011, and a reversal since. The 12 yr uptrend channel was broken earlier this year and we have recently seen a retest of that broken line. Picture perfect. Gold should now continue to underperform stocks with a very possible test of the 0.065 level. You can use your own math to figure out possible targets.
Lets just hope (for the gold bugs), that the 62% retracement of the outperformance of gold over the last 12 years will be sufficient to hold prices. (Ratio of about 9-10). If so, then the market is saying that DOW 15,000 and gold 1300 are fairly valued relative to each other. In which case both will have similar performance returns over the intermediate term- 1 to 3 years-IMO. You can also use you own math to determine possible prices for both using a ratio of 9 to 10.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For those who do not like logarithmic charts like I posted above. Ouch. This one really shows the under performance of gold.
Targets remain the same.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
One can clearly see the various manias/bubbles and bear market/crashes, and their reversals, the regressions toward the mean, and the overall trend direction of this relationship
edit to clarify that this is Dow/gold, therefore the inverse of Cohodk's chart.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Personally, I kind of like it in the 8-14 range and think we're in for perhaps a generation (~30 years) of staying within that band
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I think PC did a great job with this move. He said when he bought and when he sold. And made a nice profit while explaining his reasoning. He gets an A+ from me. >>
Thanks. And as some of the noobs aren't aware, even the best traders are wrong a good percentage of the time. And as they say and holds especially true today... a trader is never wrong, just early.
So as I said I did bail on my long entry at 1330 as I stated above. I now wish I either held it or was able to get back in at 1300 but I was perplexed by the down-side that I didn't see coming, and although I felt gold would resolve positively today I wasn't confident enough to make a move. Oh well. I think the move back up is on track and the good news is that that the A-B-C pattern on the weekly chart points to a destination of 1550, which I believe is entirely realistic and achievable in the next 2 months.
SP500 has continued to rally and breakout over 1700, but I am still not buying into the madness. I think there's got to be some serious pain coming here Sept-Oct, but I've been calling for this for a while now. I do think that if one wants to take out a short SP500 position here there is little risk long-term if you can ride out any further rally that materializes. Even if there is more rally to come, it should at least come back down to this level again to allow a break-even exit.
Edited to add: Looking for an entry tonight. Hope to get a pullback to 1342, not sure if it will pull back that far.
<< <i>Gold will have a field day in that environment....stocks too. >>
Might want to keep an eye on TBT. It's day in the sun approaches.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In any case, volatility has jumped to a higher level and the 50dma is above the 200dma both of which are trending higher. I wouldnt be surprised to see a spike into the 40s.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And a longer term perspective of this ratio
One can clearly see the various manias/bubbles and bear market/crashes, and their reversals, the regressions toward the mean, and the overall trend direction of this relationship
edit to clarify that this is Dow/gold, therefore the inverse of Cohodk's chart. >>
Nice 200 year perspective. The Fiat Capital Era sure has given long term traders tremendous opportunities.
Nominal (without factoring in loss of dollar value) equity index gains:
Actual gains when loss of dollar value is included:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The DOW bulls would say that those charts don't include dividends. Then again, a lot of firms these days don't even offer dividends of any substance. Those charts don't also reflect
the rebalancings where the weak are tossed off to be replaced by the new darlings.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And the real return on gold from its peak is?....Or silver?..... >>
Probably something similar to Apple or GMCR from their respective peaks.
I guess it comes down to if one should buy the 5th wave up a 13 year broadening top/expanding wedge pattern in the stock market, or essentially the same pattern in the HUI (a gold substitute) that is near the very bottom projection of similar pattern that is 2 years into breakdown (declining expanding wedge). I thought it was about buying near bottoms and selling near tops. Line me up all the people you know that bought gold at $1900+ and silver at $48+. I don't know of a single soul. But I know quite a few that sold out in the $1800-$1920/$42-$48 range. And I know of a lot more that have bought gold at $1200-$1300 and $19-$20 silver in 2013. One of them even posted just above me.
I suppose the same would be to ask you to show me all the people who bought DIA and SPY within 2% of their highs. A quick review of previous threads with the word "porn" in them from Aug-Sept 2011 will show quite a few purchases of gold near the top.
That wasnt my point however. I was referring to a comment about nominal returns of equities from their tops. The returns of PMs have been similar. PMs are just another asset class. And like all asset classes can become overbought as well as oversold.
And yes, I did buy gold under $1250 (physical) as I thought it represented relative value. It is interesting that I was able to buy gold at the same price as those who purchased it 4 years earlier.
And I know of a lot more that have bought $19-$20 silver in 2013
Now this I would like to see as I have been told premiums are/were at least $4 over spot. I show silver having closed under $19 for only 3 days this year making the lowest any retail customer would have paid to be at least $23 which is still 5% over spot. In fact, over the last 150 weeks, there have only been about 5 weeks where investors who bought at spot (realistically lowest buy price) can say they have a profit. Thats been one massive and grueling bear market. BUT.....
.......to get back on topic, is silver making a little H&S bottom?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear