Wisdom from the Dark Side...

MrEureka

I was chatting with a dealer about Israeli commemoratives, and suggested that because so many have been melted, and continue to be melted every day, one day many of these coins could become rare and valuable. His response was that if the coins are crap today, it doesn't matter how many are melted. Crap is crap. (No offense intended to Israel, Jews or members of AINA. We could just as easily have been talking about Franklin Mint NCLT.) The point is that some coins are more important just because of their place in history, and others - no matter how rare - have no importance in the historical record.

The conversation led me to think about US Colonials, "Classic" vs "Modern" commems, and other US coins.

Your thoughts?

RYK

Are you saying that Israel is crap?

I agree with the darksider with the proviso that opinions can change over time, and while usually crap remains crap, sometimes crap is appreciated in a new light years down the road and is no longer crap.

ricko

I believe an in depth analysis of crap is required.... there is old crap, new crap, crap designs and crappy material..... Only when crap becomes special crap does it take on any value....for example, coprolite (dinosaur crap) is quite valuable.... it used to be quite common and found in large quantities....not so much anymore. Cheers, RickO

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>His response was that if the coins are crap today, it doesn't matter how many are melted. Crap is crap. >>

Crap may be crap, but what's considered crap can change over time.

AMRC

Doesn't "Collect-ability" require collectors?

Crap has nothing to do with. People will collect anything, including crap, but there has to be interest first.

That whole area was over-minted from day one. Prayed on Patriotism. I put it all in the same category as the Franklin Mint, or the Cook Islands bullion stuff.

MrEureka

coprolite (dinosaur crap) is quite valuable.... it used to be quite common and found in large quantities....not so much anymore.


That's actually a nice segue into the real issue here. Because, regardless of market value, do you really want to surround yourself with dinosaur crap? Will the thought of a squatting dinosaur fire your imagination? And, even more importantly, will you learn anything from it? On the other hand, I can understand the appeal and value of a T-Rex skeleton, because (in a way) it brings the creatures to life.

The thought process is not much different for coins.

bidask

Here is a Israel modern coin of a very historical figure, one ounce of gold, and mintage under 2000.





I offered it to someone at the ANA for $1450.....he passed.

About an hour later he came back around to buy it.

I told him I decided to keep it.

cladking

I mostly disagree with his assessment and on several levels.

Perhaps it's apparent that a piece of crap doesn't suddenly take on importance just because it's
melted in huge quantities but this doesn't mean that the defionition of what's desirable and what
isn't is stateic and fixed Something like the .77 Ozt 1975 25 L is just bullion; it's junk and even
if they melted 95% of the 90,000 mintage it would still be junk because it was designed and
concieved primarily as a means to extract money from anyone willing to speculate or sign onto a
commemmorative of the Israeli bond program anniversary. People might have long memories and
those who sold their coins for scrap may never want another but humans have very little memory
collectively. Other people will come along who want exactly this coin and when the supply is less
than the demand the price will go higher.

The problem is with 90,000 mintage it could be a very long time before the handful of collectors
forget the coin is just crap. As long as a coin has no real premium value it will suffer high attrition
until it might garner enough demand to get a premium. This is no certainty on a high mintage coin
with little historic importance.

Many Israeli coins are actually pretty desirable though few carry much of a premium. There are sev-
eral thousand active collectors and if supply drops below this number than premiums may well appear.
I personally don't care a lot for most of the designs but I do like the font and style. They have a very
extensive medal program with much nicer designs and more important themes. Some of the circul-
ating issues are of interest as well though mintages and survival rates tend to be high. Quality of all
this material is really quite high with many Uncs looking like proofs.

The nice thing about Israel's coins is that they are very inexpensive. The second nicest thing is that
it's a great area to collect because there's little competition. Collectors would be well advised to tread
carefully because getting a premium can be a lot tougher than paying one. There's great variety and
there are actually some issues that will stand the test of time whether they get melted enmass or not.

keyman64

I have not inquired recently but I do not think this is worth much at all, even with the low mintage. I own two of them. I received them as a gift from someone that traveled there in 2005.
I do not think SBAs or Shrivers would become the hottest things if they started to go *poof*.

CoinJunkie

Actually, I find modern Israeli commemorative coinage among the most aesthetically pleasing in the world.
It's not cheap, or I'd probably buy more of it.

LanceNewmanOCC

.
i think the 1933 DE would disagree with that assessment as well. even with a low mintage reported, there are a lot of others that are far below that number in the saint DE series.

so "some" are melted, a few slight-of-hands here, a few under-the-counter deals there, add some gold, rumors, secret service, presidential decree or two and voila and here we are
8+ million dollars later.

certainly not the only coin covered under these auspices.

not making an argument for those comems as i couldn't care less about them specifically but making the argument that survivability doesn't affect desire and value is just mindboggling.

that is virtually the very premise for supply vs demand? mitigating factors aside.
.

CaptHenway

Although the melting of Israeli precious metal coins may someday reduce the supply to an equilibrium point with demand, I suspect that current generations of collectors will always consider them as something to be melted just because they have been that for decades.

Future generations may disagree.

I personally have trouble taking Franklin halves seriously because they were still coming out each year at face value when I started collecting, but younger collectors take them more seriously.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>not making an argument for those comems as i couldn't care less about them specifically but making the argument that survivability doesn't affect desire and value is just mindboggling. >>

If you couldn't care less about those coins, isn't that essentially the same thing as saying that survivability doesn't affect desire? For you, anyway?

LogPotato

Weren't Morgans considered crap in their time of circulation? Now it's probably one of the most collected types.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>Future generations may disagree. >>

This is kind of what I was getting at in my first post. Crap may be crap, but everybody has their own definition of crap and I'm sure beyond any hint of a doubt that there will never be a time when everybody's definition is exactly the same.

coindeuce

"I was chatting with a dealer about Israeli commemoratives, and suggested that because so many have been melted, and continue to be melted every day, one day many of these coins could become rare and valuable."

Chatting, or kvetching ?

Many? Meh. Maybe a few.

MrEureka

I shouldn't have to spell this out, but are there any currently "hot" US coins that are, when you come down to it, no better than Israeli or Jurassic "crap"? And, for that matter, are there any out of favor coins that will remain so forever because, again, they're just plain crap?

cladking

<< <i>I shouldn't have to spell this out, but are there any currently "hot" US coins that are, when you come down to it, no better than Israeli or Jurassic "crap"? And, for that matter, are there any out of favor coins that will remain so forever because, again, they're just plain crap? >>



Take something like a 2013-D Lincoln cent. This is the very epitome of "crap". It is a coin
that has no reasonm to even be made and represents waste on a massive scale. Now days
these coins are really quite well made with most being gemmy at least. A million and a half
high quality mint set coins would probably seervice collectors for all time yet another ten to
fifteen million will be saved by the roll by speculators. There's nothing to recommend these
coins but at least in theory they do circulate so there will be collectors. The only thing that can
save them is a very high attrition which isn't extremely likely.

To each his own and I wouldn't mind having one of the finest but I'm not going to put much
effort into seeking it or much money into owning it. Most modern cents are just garbage and
will remain so indefinitely. Of course this goes many times over for the typical specimen with
corrosion and extremely light "wear". But even here there are huge exceptions. Try finding a
nice Gemmy '84-P or a few select dates in PL.

People should write off bullion coins. What counts is demand and supply has a knack for only
decreasing.

RichieURich

I've had this discussion with the topic being the melting of U. S. silver coins minted 1964 and before. In the Washington quarter series, the 1932-D and 1932-S coins are almost always saved from being melted. But so many other silver Washington quarters have and are being melted that at some future date, the 1932-D and 1932-S might be the most common dates available in a low grade such as Good.

There needs to be a lot more melting to get to that point, but I think that scenario is certainly possible. Right now, which do you think is easier to find in Good condition, a 1932-D quarter or a 1964-D quarter?

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>Right now, which do you think is easier to find in Good condition, a 1932-D quarter or a 1964-D quarter? >>

Probably a 32-D, since the 64-Ds never had a chance to circulate long enough to accumulate that level of wear. Then again, unless the object is to find coins in as low a grade as possible, there are very likely going to be more 64-Ds available than 32-Ds, even with the melting.

bidask

I like big gold and silver legal tender coins.......I don't care where they were struck or what country.

bidask

Like this:

CoinRaritiesOnline

The OP's so-called "crap" Israeli commemoratives might indeed remain out of favor and unloved no matter how many are melted and how rare they become, unless there is a Registry Set for them, in which case one graded MS70 will inevitably sell for $57,000 in an auction within 3 months.

You're welcome.

numisma

I once sold a Liberian proof gold coin at auction and it sold for only the melt value, as expected. The mintage was only 20. That is to say that they only minted twenty coins of that denomination, that year in gold.

The problem is that there are only 2 people on the entire planet who collect proof Liberian gold coins by date and denomination. I hear that MrEureka is one of them. Check out his Liberia proof gold registry set on PCGS.

Supply and demand.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>The OP's so-called "crap" Israeli commemoratives might indeed remain out of favor and unloved no matter how many are melted and how rare they become, unless there is a Registry Set for them, in which case one graded MS70 will inevitably sell for $57,000 in an auction within 3 months. >>

Even then, somebody will still call it crap.

MidLifeCrisis

One man's crap is another man's treasure. You just gotta find the right man. He's out there. No matter what crap you're selling.

coinkat

I disagree.

breakdown

Another way of looking at this is how much of our enjoyment of owning a coin is the knowledge that many other people would like to have it? My knee jerk reaction is that I would appreciate my coins even if not another soul on the planet cared about them, but I was glad to hear that some people enjoyed looking at some of my collection at NJCoinCrank's table at the ANA. I recognize, however, that my collection is essentially condition rarities and their value/desirability will be tethered to how many and which people are collecting Walkers, Seated Halves and Buffalos.
I am not interested in collecting Moderns but am glad others are. It seems like a good funnel point into the hobby and the natural progression is that some of these collectors will eventually at least dabble in classics coins.
Coin collecting is a mish-mash of history, economics, statistics, metallurgy/chemistry and free time. There's a place in there for most of us and so I hesitate to term anything that someone else collects as crap.

BryceM

It amazes me that early Americans had absolute no sense when it came to their coins. They actually spent 1795 dollars, tossed them around, punched holes in them, polished them, and generally abused them routinely. If they only knew that a short 200 years later, they'd be worth do much they would have invented slabs to protect them.

Of course:

1) It is the attrition of so many pieces which makes the survivors so valuable.
2) Most of us have a hard time waiting 200 years. Most flippers think a long weekend is an eternity.
3) Likes & dislikes wander all over the place. Israeli commems might be the tulip bulbs of some future generation. Who knows?
4) Few early Americans would have had a desire or the means to "invest" in something so esoteric.

ProofArtworkonCircs

<<I personally have trouble taking Franklin halves seriously because they were still coming out each year at face value when I started collecting, but younger collectors take them more seriously. >>

Franklin halves have always struck me as being a little bit scarce. I think it was 1956 before I got one in change here in New England. Then I found out a cousin was saving them. She had a bunch of mostly 1952's. It turns out that was the earliest date she had. Even in 1963-1964, I remember Walkers outnumbering Franklins even though 1963 was another plentiful year.

coinkat

What am I disagreeing with?

I do not see these as crap. However, it is sort of comical how history repeats itself. 100-110 yrs ago, Barber coins and coins from the reign of Edward VII were not really saved in quantity- maybe except for 1902 for Edward VII.

I suspect some of the so-called modern crap will have its day. While signicant numbers have been melted, there is likely enough to make a promotion fun to watch

cladking

<< <i><<I personally have trouble taking Franklin halves seriously because they were still coming out each year at face value when I started collecting, but younger collectors take them more seriously. >>

Franklin halves have always struck me as being a little bit scarce. I think it was 1956 before I got one in change here in New England. Then I found out a cousin was saving them. She had a bunch of mostly 1952's. It turns out that was the earliest date she had. Even in 1963-1964, I remember Walkers outnumbering Franklins even though 1963 was another plentiful year. >>



Franklins weren't very plentiful in the Chicago area until about 1961 and then
they were represented about according to their mintage. Mostly we saw walkers
from the war era in F to VF with a few well worn older dates. The economy here
was booming in the '50's so a lot of new coin was issued here and Franklins were
anything but uncommon. By 1964 about 45% of circulating half dollars were Frank-
lins.

We saw a surprising number of Columbian half dollars but they were usually VG or lower.

dragon

I believe that cr@p ceases to remain cr@p at a point in time when corporate interests require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern.

cladking

<< <i>I believe that cr@p ceases to remain cr@p at a point in time when corporate interests require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern. >>



Ultimately it's only collectors who decide what's collectible and what isn't. A promotion can
get people to buy something but you probably can't get people to chase common Israeli gold
and silver at this point in time. A promotion might get people to buy something but it can't
make a silk purse out of a sow's ear; when the promotion ends the price will fall.

Justlooking

A good design, with some degree of scarcity, will always be in demand.

Crap will always be crap.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>I believe that cr@p ceases to remain cr@p at a point in time when corporate interests require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern. >>

Which corporations are you referring to, that will "require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern"?

TwoSides2aCoin

i like animals, science, space, technology, forward thinking and in that respect... every country churns 'em out. Personally I like GOLD in any country, Silver in any measure, Palladium in rectangles and Platinum round. That's just me. We are ONE nation of numismatists.

oreville

Unc SBA 1999 and 1999-D $1 has suddenly zoomed to over $4 each on the grey sheet from barely over $1 each back in January.

Did SB Anthony suddenly become more popular for the 1999 year only?

TahoeDale

Holy S..t.
My son has hundreds of rolls of the 2000 Sac dollar!! I will write him immediately.

OperationButter

<< <i>sometimes crap is appreciated in a new light years down the road and is no longer crap. >>



I have a feeling that the first spouses will not be in this boat

keets

This is no certainty on a high mintage coin with little historic importance.

Andy, you once did a thread asking members to mention a U.S. coin with historical importance, a very good thread. the cut/paste above from Sam reminded me of that thread. what I thought about was 1943 steel Cents, very important from a historical standpoint, minted in large numbers and not really very valuable. my conclusion-----there is no certainty on a high mintage coin with high historical importance, collectors as a whole tend to collect what interests them without really thinking about the circumstances surrounding a coin's issuance. to carry the point a bit further, I think collectors as a whole are drawn particularly to anything that is old and not made anymore or found easily. hence, the Jurrasic inclusion by RickO.

it certainly fits.

ProofArtworkonCircs

Cladking - how many collectable 1943 cents do you estimate to be available?

Many were melted and dumped at sea, many are corroded. Pristine examples must be scarce today.

dragon

<< <i>

<< <i>I believe that cr@p ceases to remain cr@p at a point in time when corporate interests require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern. >>

Which corporations are you referring to, that will "require an altogether 'new frontier' of coins to grade and holder to remain a viable ongoing concern"? >>










Seriously??