Sinclair's laest: "manipulation of the price of gold now favors the bullish side"
derryb
Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It's not really too much about timing. It's about world finance, and it's really not pretty.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>As a stacker the only concern I have on timing is whether to sell at $5,000 or hold out for $6,000.
Why are you selling so cheaply? If things really are as bad as believed, 5k will be cheap. Just saying
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
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<< <i>As a stacker the only concern I have on timing is whether to sell at $5,000 or hold out for $6,000.
Why are you selling so cheaply? If things really are as bad as believed, 5k will be cheap. Just saying
At $5K gold dollars will hopefully still have some value and can still purchase goods. AT $10K gold you would be a fool to accept dollars for gold. At some point in a failing currency scenario, no amount of that currency will be accepted for gold - then ya gotta barter that gold for goods and services.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Sinclair rattling his lucky bones again?
Most of my short-term gold decisons, thanks to FED market intervention, have to now be made by tossing the bones. I prefer they be Sinclair's.
Occasionally I can depend on the outcome of an on-line episode of mahjong to help me determine silver's next move. If I can clear the board, silver will be promising for the next 24 hrs. This method has been quite reliable lately (or I've become a better mahjong player).
Long term, I still look to the stupidity of the dollar masters for price direction. They continue to show great stupidity and have become most predictable.
The icing on the cake for stackers will be the selection of Larry as FED Head.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I will accept all dollars for my gold at this level.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>AT $10K gold you would be a fool to accept dollars for gold
I will accept all dollars for my gold at this level. >>
You own gold?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>AT $10K gold you would be a fool to accept dollars for gold
I will accept all dollars for my gold at this level. >>
I will also accept dollars for gold and pay off any debt financed with cheap interest.
Problem is (IMHO) he had folks believing in his angels without much pullback before the next level.
Might be simpler if he just put an ad in the help wanted section of his newspaper "looking for bagholders." His sidekick BoPony is on
board for the blastoff.
A crisis rooted in too much debt cannot be solved by creating more debt.
Prosperity cannot be printed out of thin air.
Rigged systems and markets destroy trust.
Nothing can grow exponentially forever, except for the number of zeros printed on your currency.
I have no problem with his timing when it comes to calling gold. Sinclair and I will see his $5,000 gold.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Sinclair and I will see his $5,000 gold. >>
I hope you have a history of longevity in your family
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<< <i>Sinclair and I will see his $5,000 gold. >>
I hope you have a history of longevity in your family
Gold will see $5K because of demand.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
MA does forecast a bull market in fall of 2015 with only caveat being unless our president starts WWIII
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>more MA on gold and...
MA does forecast a bull market in fall of 2015 with only caveat being unless our president starts WWIII
Thats funny because I posted a chart showing a potential critical time for gold being right around that same time frame. Unfortunately my message probably gets lost because is it not political, manipulative or laced with conspiracy theory.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
Tom Fitzpatrick said that on or around May 24th with gold at ~$1385 with still ~$185 to drop. Now...it's on all the "pseudo news blogs" as current news to hype the bugs, I guess.
I'm not saying Fitzpatrick is wrong, ZH is ...........just.......not...........news (IM0)
<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
When did any of the major banks ever make a publicized correct call on Gold or Silver?
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<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
When did any of the major banks ever make a publicized correct call on Gold or Silver? >>
JPM has a pretty good batting average.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
When did any of the major banks ever make a publicized correct call on Gold or Silver? >>
JPM has a pretty good batting average. >>
Not in recent years though....always over optimistic in their calls
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<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
When did any of the major banks ever make a publicized correct call on Gold or Silver? >>
JPM has a pretty good batting average. >>
Not in recent years though....always over optimistic in their calls >>
I believe JPM advised a sell right before the last gold smackdown.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>Citi sees $3500 gold, $100 silver >>
When did any of the major banks ever make a publicized correct call on Gold or Silver? >>
JPM has a pretty good batting average. >>
Not in recent years though....always over optimistic in their calls >>
I believe JPM advised a sell right before the last gold smackdown. >>
I must have missed that call or didn't pay attention to it. I do remember last years call for a high of $1850 though.
JPM and some other banks all got together and declared gold to be going down right before they smacked it under $1550 in April. A lot of friends of JPM piled
on to help out. Jim Sinclair was apparently not part of that conference call. I do agree that we will get to his $3500-$5000 gold call by 2015-2021 (ie in my lifetime).
<< <i>I believe JPM advised a sell right before the last gold smackdown.
JPM and some other banks all got together and declared gold to be going down right before they smacked it under $1550 in April. A lot of friends of JPM piled
on to help out. Jim Sinclair was apparently not part of that conference call. I do agree that we will get to his $3500-$5000 gold call by 2015-2021 (ie in my lifetime). >>
The charts were very weak leading up to the support break at 1525. I think some people even posted comments in public forums alerting those with an open mind to high probability of massive losses in PMs. I dont think these people were privy to any "smackdown alert" from the banks. There was no concerted effort to "shake the trees" or "pry open the weak hands". The charts played out exactly as they were predicted. True market analysis, free of conspiracy and manipulation bias, is alive and well.
I will agree with the potential of $3500-$5000 gold by 2021. That would be an 11 to17% annual return, which would be pretty darn good. Unfortunately I believe the vast majority of this gain will come in the 6 months immediately before the eventual peak. In other words, investing in gold could be a lot like marlin fishing. Extended periods of shear boredom followed by a brief time of chaos and excitement.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I will agree with the potential of $3500-$5000 gold by 2021. That would be an 11 to17% annual return, which would be pretty darn good. Unfortunately I believe the vast majority of this gain will come in the 6 months immediately before the eventual peak. In other words, investing in gold could be a lot like marlin fishing. Extended periods of shear boredom followed by a brief time of chaos and excitement. >>
Let's call it "parobolia."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What happens is a combination of both denial and anticipation, so if you don't psychologically prepare for your next move while the spike is still forming, you will miss the chance to get out when it does get interesting.
If I were doing this completely without emotion, I would map the rate of change daily using various timeframes. I might go so far as to use a moving average and to compare the rate of change vs. 1978-1980, just to be sure that the slope meets my criteria for selling.
It really is hard to know that it's a spike unless you measure it objectively, because it's also very easy to start patting yourself on the back and to stop paying attention. Don't get caught up in the daily noise.
Having said that, precious metals are still very good insurance against sovereign default risk - a risk that I don't believe will be going away. So, don't sell it all.
I knew it would happen.
My comments on that day as gold briefly penetrated $1500 for the first time are listed below. Several months earlier I had mentioned the large negative monthly divergences building
in the Jan/Feb gold chart as well as the monthly macd crossing over.
A pile of gaps filled today. GLD 150, 149, 147, and 145 all filled. That resets things back to the summer 2011 breakout to $1900 from the $1480's low.
The GLD level of 145 supported gold for 2-1/2 months in mid-2011. So getting below the $1488 level for good will take a bit more work.
A weekly close under $1523 today could/should signal a transition to a full blown gold cyclical bear. Gold's monthly rsi and macd have now taken out
the 2008 lows. Huge negative divergence in play. GDX filled a gap from summer 2009 at $32.50. SLV is lagging though with gaps remaining at 24 and 25.
Within 2 weeks gold did bounce back to that $1488 level, if only very briefly. It still doesn't change the fact that a "pile on" was conducted with the big banks front running their call.
If not, that rapid bounce back from $1321-$1488 would not have occurred. The technical damage was done however. It was a well coordinated hit that begin at the London open and
then cascaded into NY hours. The fact that a Friday-Monday setup was used was quite interesting.
While GS was telling clients to dump gold in the 2nd qtr, they were buying in record amounts. 3.7 MILL shares of GLD - now the 7th largest holder
While John Paulson's funds were dumping in quantity.....Goldman was the one buying it up.