Is this the beginning of the market slide that we have all been waiting for?
mrpaseo
Posts: 4,753 ✭✭✭
Down last week, kicking off this week even lower.
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Comments
<< <i>I think he is referring to the DJIA.? Or the stock/financial markets in general? >>
Yes, the DJIA. Assuming that when the DJIA slides the PM prices will blip. Then once QE is done PM prices will skyrocket (Strong word but seems to fit).
I picture the DJIA sliding over a period of time about 1000 points before the news for the end of QE. We are down about 400 points in the last five days and about 600 from the beginning of the month.
To answer your title question, I'll say no. When it does happen, it'll be much sharper of a drop than a measely 600 pts down from ALL TIME highs.
This is just profit taking, big difference between profit taking from all time highs and across the board market sell off sparked by change in policy.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think he is referring to the DJIA.? Or the stock/financial markets in general? >>
Yes, the DJIA. Assuming that when the DJIA slides the PM prices will blip. Then once QE is done PM prices will skyrocket (Strong word but seems to fit).
I picture the DJIA sliding over a period of time about 1000 points before the news for the end of QE. We are down about 400 points in the last five days and about 600 from the beginning of the month. >>
Wow....the DJ is down a big 4% this month... a slide of 1000 is only approx 8%...I would consider that normal profit taking.
<< <i> it'll be much sharper of a drop than a measely 600 pts down from ALL TIME highs. >>
MUCH sharper than what we are experiencing right now. When we start to see the 5% + moves in a single day, similar to the moves we had in 08, you know we are there.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Better to hope for a bond crash.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>My metal has 20+ years to simmer, not worried about anything going on this decade unless a nice GSR presents itself for some swapping. >>
I hope your mindset regarding PM's is not the same with your other assets. If so, I've got some Mint products that I'm willing to part with, that should increase in value in approx 20 years.
<< <i>
<< <i>My metal has 20+ years to simmer, not worried about anything going on this decade unless a nice GSR presents itself for some swapping. >>
I hope your mindset regarding PM's is not the same with your other assets. If so, I've got some Mint products that I'm willing to part with, that should increase in value in approx 20 years.
Ha!
I'm a long. Metal and cash, art, that's about all I'm sitting on outside of the house/vehicles right now. Hence my desire for the right correction to hit so I can jump back in the market....blood in the streets right.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree, and the fact that equities have had recent all time highs is just another way to spin it and rationalize it to provoke it to happen.
I'm looking at next months Fed meeting as being the driver. If they announce tapering will begin, I say down we go, which would not necessarrily be a total bad thing.
Like coho says,
Equity markets need a break after a stellar run. Equities usually rally when interest rates rise. I see no reason to assume "this time is different".
It's the nature of the beast
<< <i>Equity markets need a break after a stellar run.
The same can be said for Gold & Silver in their recent run up.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
Is that a trend you wanna fight Jmski?
Even a bounce in yields back to the historical mean of about 4-5% would, imo, be very healthy as it would promote both savings and investment.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
Is that a trend you wanna fight Jmski?
Even a bounce in yields back to the historical mean of about 4-5% would, imo, be very healthy as it would promote both savings and investment. >>
What exactly does this show us? It looks like Black Monday was three years long...
<< <i>Like dominoes... down another 100 points today. When will the madness end
Yup. Six days in a row.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Like dominoes... down another 100 points today. When will the madness end
Yup. Six days in a row. >>
The sky is falling. if there is a "honey-do" list, someone is going to be spending fiat money to fix something for their honey.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
You think we're in the upper channel of a declining trendline?
All things must pass.
I knew it would happen.
Just sayin. A buck seventy drop yesterday? Down 800 on the month now right? Wish I was one taking some of these profits.
Anyone want to school me on when/what to do? I'm willing to listen.
What could push rates down from this little peak we see? How many times have they bumped up the bailouts and stimulus and QE and Twist in order to force rates down? 6 times now? All this is happening in a stagnant economy, which makes it relatively more extreme. Nothing stops these guys when they want to manipulate people or markets. They'll destroy any functional market if it helps them stay on top.
They keep saying they're gonna taper. If rates keep going up, the stock market will keep going down and there will be no taper. And THAT would be unacceptable. So we will get No taper, but we will probably get even MORE QE so that the stock market doesn't keep tanking and in a somewhat futile attempt to force rates back down.
Of course, if there's a war then QE won't be necessary because the government will ramp up defense spending and the recession will be over. No talk of taper if there's a war going on. And the debt will take another jump. The problem with that is - we've never started a war in this big of a financial hole, and THAT might be a problem.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So ahhhh.... how much "Profit taking" is going to happen before we can call this a market slide?
Just sayin. A buck seventy drop yesterday? Down 800 on the month now right? Wish I was one taking some of these profits.
Anyone want to school me on when/what to do? I'm willing to listen. >>
A 10%+ slide is considered a correction...anything less is profit taking. Suggest you follow the market more closely. Those activities occur very regularly, especially after a substantial run up. A drop of 800 is only about 5%...
You are also forgetting that the Dow is still up by almost 15% Since January 2013 & likewise over the last 12 month.
I believe it would take very little research to prove both these conjectures inaccurate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It looks to me like interest rates are rising, but it's not because of a hot economy. It's because rates are already historically low and nobody wants to touch Treasuries with a 10 foot pole
I believe it would take very little research to prove both these conjectures inaccurate. >>
accurate
Since 08-09 a lot of the old rules no longer apply. Because market forces are now different, outcomes will often be different. An understanding of this is what can make today's investor successful. It's a new ballgame and not only have they changed the rules and lengthened the playing field, but most importantly they fired the referees. Consider this the paradigm shift in economics.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
All that's been done in our economy since 2008 is to trade good jobs for part time jobs, making up the difference with imaginary money. I would note that most company fundamentals aren't the result of good performance. A rising stock market doesn't equal a healthy economy, no matter how adept you might be at trading the market.
Bush handed Obama a pile of crap, and Obama did nothing but use it as an excuse to give away free stuff and favors to his supporters on both ends of the economic scale. If you can trade that trend, more power to ya.
I knew it would happen.
The political morass has captured you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
It can represent a economy with promise. It can represent an economy with healthy companies.
In 2010 many gold bugs spoke with disdain of the stock market while expounding the virtues of gold. Time has proven them wrong. A good investor will try to understand what was wrong in their analysis rather than beat the same old drums. Time does have a tendency to heal wounds, but time should not be used as an excuse for faulty analysis.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sure, it can. And fundamental stock analysis should be the rule, not the exception. Unfortunately, what we now have isn't a vibrant economy with companies innovating and taking risks on new products and new markets that show potential for growth. What we have is bogus liquidity being used to kite stock prices in hopes of keeping 401Ks from crashing and causing a major outcry from soon-to-retire baby boomers.
What we have is most companies hunkering down, trying to preserve capital and lower tax exposure in hopes that the money grab will be over after the politicians realize that they are killing the economy. Not gonna happen any time soon. They really want to start nationalizing even more industries. If you live in a blue state environment, you've been constantly lectured that this is only right and normal. What a travesty.
In 2010 many gold bugs spoke with disdain of the stock market while expounding the virtues of gold. Time has proven them wrong. A good investor will try to understand what was wrong in their analysis rather than beat the same old drums. Time does have a tendency to heal wounds, but time should not be used as an excuse for faulty analysis.
Nothing has changed since 2008, when the entire paradigm was trashed. The accounting standards are nil, and accounting standards should be geared to reflect reality so that honest opinions and honest evaluations can be done. This is no longer the case and if you think that is a trivial matter, then you are riding a gravy train of imaginary numbers and that's your choice. The wounds are still being inflicted and there's no healing going on. Play the "market". It's your money.
I knew it would happen.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
TSLA, BIIB, SCTY, BA, F. I could go on but I believe each of these companies is expanding into new markets with innovative technology.
Perhaps if the economy was "vibrant", the DOW would be at 20k?
I will STRONGLY contend that the US economy will be MUCH stronger with a 10yr yield at 4% than at 2.5%. My fear is that the economy will be too strong and inflation expectations will rise.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I will STRONGLY contend that the US economy will be MUCH stronger with a 10yr yield at 4% than at 2.5%. My fear is that the economy will be too strong and inflation expectations will rise. >>
In this economy and under current monetary policy you will see fear drive inflation before you see a strong economy do so.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>I will STRONGLY contend that the US economy will be MUCH stronger with a 10yr yield at 4% than at 2.5%. My fear is that the economy will be too strong and inflation expectations will rise. >>
In this economy and under current monetary policy you will see fear drive inflation before you see a strong economy do so. >>
Highly unlikely as I do not believe that scenario has ever produced strong sustainable inflationary pressures.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I will STRONGLY contend that the US economy will be MUCH stronger with a 10yr yield at 4% than at 2.5%. My fear is that the economy will be too strong and inflation expectations will rise. >>
In this economy and under current monetary policy you will see fear drive inflation before you see a strong economy do so. >>
Highly unlikely as I do not believe that scenario has ever produced strong sustainable inflationary pressures. >>
Keep watching.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I will STRONGLY contend that the US economy will be MUCH stronger with a 10yr yield at 4% than at 2.5%. My fear is that the economy will be too strong and inflation expectations will rise. >>
In this economy and under current monetary policy you will see fear drive inflation before you see a strong economy do so. >>
Highly unlikely as I do not believe that scenario has ever produced strong sustainable inflationary pressures. >>
Not sure about the sustainable part but I do believe we can see inflation as bad as late 70's early 80's for a period of time.
This would surly light a fire under PM's that could last from a few months to perhaps a year or two resulting in a blow off top.
Now there could always be an exception to the rule but for that to occur the fiat monetary system would have to implode upon itself which I find unlikely to happen.
Another scenario would be to create a new electronic based fiat currency system which would enable governments to truly have complete control over monitoring transactions.
Even so PM's would play a roll as a store of value for many people and there could even be a black market involving PM's traded for goods and services.
All of this is speculation as anything involving the future is just that.
Seems to be sliding up. About the highest since May.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Woman on subway: Are you in the market?
George: Oh yeah
Woman: Which market?
George: The big one, the big board
Woman: Are you with one of the big brokerage houses?
George: Hate the big brokerage houses! Big brokerage houses killed my father
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
In the metals?
Possibly
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry