Who's your lead off hitter? Ichiro or Raines

Tomi

Let's not put Henderson in this since he would probably be everyone's choice. As far as modern era lead off players go, Raines and Ichiro are at the top of many lists, but if you had a choice to start a team and had to choose one, who would it be and why?

Baez578

Ichiros my guys. 4000 hits, rarely injured, speedy, great defense...and no ego.

markj111

Raines. Higher OBP, Slugging, OPS,all time great baserunner.

otwcards

Might have to go with Raines as his OBP, OPS and SB% were all better.

Given the current crop, I'd take Trout in the beat of a heart although he won't be a leadoff hitter for too much of his career (heck, he isn't even there all the time, now). That being said, the most overlooked and probably most productive is Shin-Soo Choo.

mccardguy1

Even though Ichiro will get on base as he will end up with nearly 4K hits I would still have to take Raines. He posed more of a threat than Ichiro ever did in my opinion.

Baez578

No offense to the Raines fans.....but this isn't even close. Obs and ops isn't that far off from each other. Ichiros worst hit year was last year with 178. Before that he had 200 plus hit seasons practically every year.

Raines BEST hit year was 195. Ichiro played full seasons almost every year. Raines after 87 started missing many games and eventually became injury prone. For a full career, ichiro stands alone.

If its only taking into account a 3/5 year span, it's debatable. But then you can add Vince Coleman 85-90 (pre-mets) into the mix.

Dboneesq

Are we taking defense into account as well? Although Raines was, IMO, a great defensive outfielder, he never won a Gold Glove. Ichiro won 17 of them ... 7 in Japan and 10 here (yes, I had to look it up). Offensively it goes to Raines ... factor in defense and I think it's pretty close.

dapro

I think Ichiro will be first ballot HOF, sO I am going with Ichiro.

Tomi

<< <i>I think Ichiro will be first ballot HOF, sO I am going with Ichiro. >>




I think it's a shame that Raines will wait for a long time to get in if ever. This guy is definitely worthy of induction.

MBMiller25

I will take Ichiro, I would want the defense on my team.

vladguerrero

Both should be HOF'ers.

mygotta

I would take Ichiro. Especially in our modern line-up where a lot more home runs are being hit, stolen bases is not the revered stat it was in the 80's. Raines I believe also was caught doing cocaine at some point in his career. Ichiro who has nearly 200 hits every year, thats who you want on base. Speed does help, and maybe Raines can stretch a single to a double, or score more frequently, but I go back to Ichiro. I also agree with otwcards that Shin Choo is most overlooked this season.

76collector

I got to go with Ichiro. Superior defensively, and if you project out his stats down to 1994 (he was probably mlb ready even a little before that) he would easily have 4,000 hits. OPS/OB% are close enough that I think Ichiro's defense puts him over the top.

Dboneesq

<< <i>Raines I believe also was caught doing cocaine at some point in his career. >>


During the Pittsburgh Drug Trials of 1985, Tim told how he'd keep a gram of coke in his uniform pocket (as well as revealing that he snorted during games), and that he only slid into bases headfirst so as not to break the vial.

NVbaseball

<< <i>No offense to the Raines fans.....but this isn't even close. Obs and ops isn't that far off from each other. Ichiros worst hit year was last year with 178. Before that he had 200 plus hit seasons practically every year.

Raines BEST hit year was 195. Ichiro played full seasons almost every year. Raines after 87 started missing many games and eventually became injury prone. For a full career, ichiro stands alone.

If its only taking into account a 3/5 year span, it's debatable. But then you can add Vince Coleman 85-90 (pre-mets) into the mix. >>



Why such heavy emphasis on hits? For a leadoff hitter, singles become less valuable, while walks become more valuable. Can't see any possible measure that would make Ichiro better offensively. Raines had higher obp and higher slg, while playing in a more pitcher friendly environment; 808 steals to 146 times caught is almost as good as Henderson for baserunning -- 71 steals in 88 games as a 21 year-old rookie in 1981 ... imagine what he would have done if not for the strike. Then he was the best player in the NL in 1987, but lost a month because of illegal labor practice. Then lost even more games because of the strike in 94 and 95 -- even though he was in his mid-30s and had started to decline, his obp those years was still better than Ichiro's career .363

Ichiro obviously started in Seattle late in his career, but they both fell off around the same age

It is reasonable that they are close enough as hitters to where the defense can make up the difference

I know you were being sarcastic about Vince Coleman, but Raines had at least 10 years significantly better than Coleman's best. And another five that were pretty close

NVbaseball

Looking further, I find it hard to accept any way that Paul Molitor isn't the second best leadoff hitter (without letting defense enter into the equation)

detroitfan2

CDsNuts

I'll take 1994 Kenny Lofton.

grote15

I believe Billy Wagner led off an inning once and worked out a walk which put his OBP at 1.000 so I'll go with Wags.

markj111

<< <i>No offense to the Raines fans.....but this isn't even close. Obs and ops isn't that far off from each other. Ichiros worst hit year was last year with 178. Before that he had 200 plus hit seasons practically every year.

Raines BEST hit year was 195. Ichiro played full seasons almost every year. Raines after 87 started missing many games and eventually became injury prone. For a full career, ichiro stands alone.

If its only taking into account a 3/5 year span, it's debatable. But then you can add Vince Coleman 85-90 (pre-mets) into the mix. >>




Walks count too. Raines was better in the USA.

JoeBanzai

If I chose on the OP's question of who's my lead off hitter, I am going to pick Raines, but not by a lot. He got on base more often and stole more bases, so his lead off value was better.

As an overall player I would take Ichiro, amazing consistency and basically played 11 out 12 straight years without missing any time. Had a great arm as well.

Joe

detroitfan2

<< <i>I'll take 1994 Kenny Lofton. >>



Look at how the dude wore his pants. Just look at it. How can a guy his wear pants like that and be a good leadoff hitter? Mr. Brock on the other hand, the epitome of a leadoff hitter. You see how Kenny's in pain? Of course he is. He has to be chafing all constrained like that.

wallst32

You could argue that Ichiro had anywhere from 4 to 7 MLB All Star caliber years in Japan before coming to over to the US. Obvioulsy you can't convert the stats one for one, but he dominated all those years in Japan and didn't miss a beat coming to MLB. Factor that in and it's not even close; I'll go with Ichiro. Those were his prime years in Japan.

Dodgerfanjohn

Damn this one is close. Not sure who to pick.

hyperchipper09

Somewhere on the interwebs there's a column, forget who wrote it, I think Bill James was quoted though. He named Tim Raines as the best player in baseball from 1985-87. Not just the NL, but the whole ML. Was he? I dunno. Mattingly, Rickey, Brett, Schmidt and maybe a couple others weren't too shabby in that time frame either. There are a lot better stat guru's than myself who can crunch those numbers and see if they agree with Bill.
Here's what I know. I followed Raines' whole career. Start to finish. He was extremely good but very overlooked IMO during the whole decade of the 80's. Playing into the 90's he was still productive. Both he and Ichiro should make the HOF. If I had a team, I would pick Raines over Ichiro.

Cokin75

I'd go with Ichiro, no doubt. In my view, Raines is one of those guys who looks better on paper 20 years later than he actually was. Don't get me wrong, he was a great player for a time, and was on a HOF path until about 1987. After that, he was just another good player. Raines was definitely one of the best base stealers ever, and had a great ability to get on base, but I don't think he was good enough for long enough to warrant a spot in the hall.

mygotta

If stolen bases is a major factor, we are leaving out Vince Coleman as a possibility. In his first 3 seasons he stole 100+ bases, including his rookie year which he did 110 alone. Although he was not a power hitter and his average suffered, he ended his career with over 700 stolen bases.

BaltimoreYankee

I'm going Ichiro since Raines is over 50 years old.

NVbaseball

<< <i> Factor that in and it's not even close >>



It only becomes close once you factor those in

NVbaseball

<< <i> Don't get me wrong, he was a great player for a time, and was on a HOF path until about 1987. >>



But what did he do after that to fall off? He missed games in 1988, but then played seven straight full seasons from 89 through 95. During the years from age 29 through 35 Raines was better than Ichiro at reaching base, had a higher OPS+ and was a better base stealer

BPorter26

I'm going with career stats. I'm taking Raines all-day.

Raines .294 Avg, 385 OBP, 425 SLG & .810 OPS

Ichiro .320 Avg, .362 OBP, .416 SLG & .778 OPS

Cokin75

<< <i>

<< <i> Don't get me wrong, he was a great player for a time, and was on a HOF path until about 1987. >>



But what did he do after that to fall off? He missed games in 1988, but then played seven straight full seasons from 89 through 95. During the years from age 29 through 35 Raines was better than Ichiro at reaching base, had a higher OPS+ and was a better base stealer >>



After '87, Raines started missing a bunch of games. The stolen base totals also went down along with his average and most of his other offensive numbers (though HR went up a bit). I think Raines just misses the HOF due to this decline. Bottom line to me, Raines is in the Hall of Very Good. His OBP/basestealing skills were very good, but not extraordinary. Outisde of that, nothing really jumps out at you, especially on the counting stats (which the voters put a big focus on).

1985fan

Ichiro, and it's not close. Even if you decide that they are comparable hitters, Ichiro's defense being light years better, as well as much quicker makes the case opened and closed. People overlook defense, but a run prevented is as important as a run scored.

NVbaseball

<< <i>After '87, Raines started missing a bunch of games. The stolen base totals also went down along with his average and most of his other offensive numbers (though HR went up a bit). I think Raines just misses the HOF due to this decline. Bottom line to me, Raines is in the Hall of Very Good. His OBP/basestealing skills were very good, but not extraordinary. Outisde of that, nothing really jumps out at you, especially on the counting stats (which the voters put a big focus on). >>



For seven years from 1989 through 1995 Raines averaged over 140 games played per every 162 played by his teams. During those years only 32 players played in more games. It is easy to see his steals dropped, but it was still nearly equal to Ichiro, while caught stealing much less often; his on base percentage was higher than Ichiro; slugging percentage was lower, but still better once adjusted for league average.

If we don't discredit Ichiro for what he was doing in his early 30s, than it is completely dishonest to discredit Raines for being nearly the same player

jradke4

<< <i>Looking further, I find it hard to accept any way that Paul Molitor isn't the second best leadoff hitter (without letting defense enter into the equation) >>



When I saw title of this thread first name that came to mind was Henderson. Secod was Molitor especially the early 80's version. But that might be the MKE bias I have...

Tabe

Bill James has a lot of good things to say but he's whacked in the head if he thinks Tim Raines was the best player in the majors from 1985-87.

As for me, I'll take Ichiro over Raines. Just a more complete player, IMHO.

The guy who posted earlier that Ichiro doesn't have a big ego is mistaken, though. He hurt the Mariners his last few years with his ego-driven obsession with hits - even if they had to be wimpy little singles that never left the infield - over anything else that might have benefited his team.