Gold's wave analysis of the past 12 years - and what could be next - only viewable Sat.

roadrunner

Gold's wave analysis of the past 12 years

I thought this was an excellent article for those into technical analysis and Elliot Waves. The author is only allowing public viewing tonight.

I posted a verbal summary a few posts down.

derryb

his outlook is promising

cohodk

Thanks Roadrunner. Although I do not follow EWT, I do appreciate those who do. I generally support his thinking except that the basing will be longer.

I also note that he makes no connect to manipulation or conspiracy to explain the decline in gold over the last 2 years.

jmski52

I'll be studying this one. Thanks rr.

roadrunner

<< <i>Thanks Roadrunner. Although I do not follow EWT, I do appreciate those who do. I generally support his thinking except that the basing will be longer.

I also note that he makes no connect to manipulation or conspiracy to explain the decline in gold over the last 2 years. >>




I hear you. Must keep all options open as we continue into gold's typically seasonally strong period of Aug-November. I follow EW's to some extent to figure out key points
in runs, especially when wave 3's are beginning (often linked to a gap up or down).

Link to article is no longer active for those trying to view Sunday. But it was one of the best written EW articles on the entire gold bull run and retracement that I've seen yet.

derryb

RR, I was fortunate to have caught it while it was up. If possible can you briefly summerize his message for those that missed it.

And, as cod pointed out he did not link any price movement to manipulation. However, I continue to believe that most all markets are under the control of those that control the printing and flow of money. I believe that use of the words "conspirarcy" and "manipulation" detract from understanding what is going on with the markets. I think "control" much better describes what is in reality manipulation.

ricko

Darn... I missed it.... I hope someone can provide a summation.... Cheers, RickO

roadrunner

<< <i>RR, I was fortunate to have caught it while it was up. If possible can you briefly summarize his message for those that missed it.

And, as cod pointed out he did not link any price movement to manipulation. However, I continue to believe that most all markets are under the control of those that control the printing and flow of money. I believe that use of the words "conspiracy" and "manipulation" detract from understanding what is going on with the markets. I think "control" much better describes what is in reality manipulation. >>



I tend to agree. The HFT's under the controls of their handlers determine when those accelerating waves are to begin and end. And they've made it a point to often begin those when they cause the most market damage (ie like the Friday/Monday April 12th-16th cascade that caught longs over the weekend). It makes no sense that holders of tens of thousands of gold futures contracts make no effort to maximize their return by selling them piece-meal into strength rather than one huge dump to start off a slump. It's a pattern we've seen for years.

In trying to summarize that article a lot of the context is lost because of the intro and in depth process the author took. Just that alone lent additional credibility to his work. It's not quite like reading most of the gold analysis articles you see that only skim the surface of the topic. This guy is retired, apparently from a sport's career of some sort. He made 8 figures in gold and silver during the 2008-2011 run up. And freely admits he lost $2.5 MILL on the subsequent downturn not fully understand the shift in wave patterns that had occurred in Oct 2011. He now feels that with the recent 5 wave impulsive upward action since the $1180 June low, coupled with ABC retraces has changed the nature of gold for the first time in 2 years. The previous 2 yrs were showing 5 wave impulses to the downside as well as left (bearish) translated cycles where the peaks occur early in the first half of the cycle. That's what's changed. This guy is a subscriber to a paid "cycles analysis" blog that I'm also on ($200/yr). So while he's spent a lot of study on EW, he started off as a cycle theory guy. He thought that this research might be helpful to his peers and was willing to share it Saturday night. He runs his own paid subscription service as well which doesn't make a lot of money....certainly not 8 figures...lol. For those that were able to read the article, if my summary has any errors, feel free to correct those. I find EW theory to be helpful when used with other tools (trend lines, cycle theory, classic TA, Fibs).

The gist of his analysis is that the Oct 2011 top at $1920 was a wave 3 (2001-2011). And that what has followed since is a wave 4....meaning a wave 5 higher (to $2,000-$3,000+) is still out there, and possibly in progress. His wave 1 of this entire bull market was a very brief $100+ spike in 1999 followed by a wave 2 descent into 2001 retracing 99% of the wave 1 move. This is not quite in tune with most other analysts who think that the move from 2001-2011 was a complete 5 wave pattern as well as including the 1999 spike on to the end of the 1980-2001 correction. One does have to wonder how you can have a 1 month wave 1, a 2 year wave 2, and then a 10 year wave 3. ????? Even the 1966-1980 bull market had a more symmetric pattern of wave 1 (1966-1969), wave 2 (1969-1970), wave 3 (1970-1974), wave 4 (1975-1976), wave 5 (1976-1980). It basically comes down are we correcting a portion of the rise from $681-$1920 or from $252-$1920? If we are correcting the smaller move as the author believes, it has already retraced 59.7% of that.....very close to the desired 61.8% FIB ratio. While the author didn't mention it, it's important to note that silver put in a wave 1 from 1993-1998. It's wave 2 was from 1999-2001. It's not easy trying to fit the gold and silver waves together from 1993-2001. One of the reasons I feel was due the many forces pitted against gold from 1994-2002 (ie Rubin and Summers strong dollar - weak gold policy, gold carry trade built on the Yen, gold miner's heavily hedging, UK's Brown's Bottom, etc.).

In the short term the author thinks that $1180-$1348 was wave 1 of 5 (of 5) upwards for gold (25+ waves total). We're now in a wave 2 retrace that he thinks may try and fool the newly minted bulls by performing a multiple ABC corrective pattern (ie ABC-X-ABC). Most bulls are now giddy with the bounce to $1317 and are locked and loaded at 100% again. So the $1272 low of last week was the first ABC and could still get taken out to clean house again. The X wave higher may still have a 5th wave left in it to $1323 or a bit higher before an ABC follows. Gold has already retraced 59% of the first ABC down ($1317). If the 2nd ABC doesn't occur soon (ie wave 3 "up" is underway) it will become quite apparent on a strong gap up early next week that Wave 3 of a bullish run is underway. Such a wave will leave $1350 behind fairly quickly as well as all thoughts of an "X" wave and 2nd ABC correction. Can't recall what the author's projected target was on this 5 wave move but it was in the $1400's to $1525. After a 9 month drop of $616 even a conservative 38% FIB retrace would project to $1415 (also 50% FIB to $1488). Author also noted that the current period has things we haven't seen for 5-10 yrs (5 weeks of negative gold forward offered rates, record COT positioning from both commercials and large specs, unusually strong world wide physical gold demand, record low sentiment, etc.). There were others but can't recall them all.

An interesting analysis. As usual, this guy could be right or dead wrong.

cohodk

<< <i>RR, I was fortunate to have caught it while it was up. If possible can you briefly summerize his message for those that missed it.

And, as cod pointed out he did not link any price movement to manipulation. However, I continue to believe that most all markets are under the control of those that control the printing and flow of money. I believe that use of the words "conspirarcy" and "manipulation" detract from understanding what is going on with the markets. I think "control" much better describes what is in reality manipulation. >>



I'll go along with the word "control", but would also add the word "limited".

LochNESS

As long as it goes up, you can call it whatever you want