The official Baseball card BULLS versus BEARS PSA graded thread
MintMoondog
Posts: 969 ✭
Okay all,
It has been a long time coming. I have spent the greater part of 7 years trying to complete a 1970s PSA graded mega-run (less than 50 cards to go!). About 2 years ago, I started alerting my fellow 1975 mini collectors that I was noticing "bullish" bids on many low pop 70s cards both common and stars. Then I realized that it was almost impossible to find 1970s unopened anymore. Low and behold a great thread was started questioning whether BBCE was "drying up" and has engendered over 1000 posts. The final answer: it is certainly true regarding 70s cards - unopened is as dry as a desert.
I am now convinced that for reasons I am not fully able to grasp that we are in a bull market for high end cards both graded and unopened from the 70s; I am too scared to even look at the 60s and 50s. I guess I can just keep my mouth shut an continue buying but this is just too much fun for me. I actually enjoy losing auctions when the action is high (no matter how painful) and marvel at HAMMER prices. I would like to start off with 3 auctions that just ended and which I believe reveal how strong this market really is!
1972AaronPSA9 I've been chasing this card for 5 years. Finally, I decided not to lose this one. It had been selling for around 700-800. I sniped 1200.00, this didn't last so I increased to 1500.00 then at the last minute I went 1600.00 thinking no way is this going to go over 2 times normal sales...oops. 1625.00 (EDIT: Note 6 different bidders went over 1000.00!)
1971RosePSA9 Okay, its a Pop 9 Rose! Sold for around 4.2K previously. I definitely wanted this bad boy - and put in a snipe of 5.5K. Thought about it and then went to 5.8K...I went back and forth on whether I should actually go beyond 6K....naw that is crazy. 7988.00! (I wasn't in the same zip code)
Finally one happy ending. If a Rose Pop9 goes for that, then what will a 1971 Banks PSA9 pop3 go for?
Lucked out! I wrote on the mini thread that I felt I got a bargain. Indeed!
1971BanksPSA9 3,935.55 (Yes, it is interesting to note that this auction was private while the other two were PWCC)
So let's have it out! True bull market or a bubble? Is this the savvy investor's response to NSA spying? I know the government has gotten to the point of monitoring all our credit card purchases, as well as gold bullion purchases. Are "investments" like baseball cards and celebrity autographs the new black market investment vehicle? What are your thoughts? What are the future economics of baseball card collecting? Bad news for us collectors? Or good news for us whose collections are made?
It has been a long time coming. I have spent the greater part of 7 years trying to complete a 1970s PSA graded mega-run (less than 50 cards to go!). About 2 years ago, I started alerting my fellow 1975 mini collectors that I was noticing "bullish" bids on many low pop 70s cards both common and stars. Then I realized that it was almost impossible to find 1970s unopened anymore. Low and behold a great thread was started questioning whether BBCE was "drying up" and has engendered over 1000 posts. The final answer: it is certainly true regarding 70s cards - unopened is as dry as a desert.
I am now convinced that for reasons I am not fully able to grasp that we are in a bull market for high end cards both graded and unopened from the 70s; I am too scared to even look at the 60s and 50s. I guess I can just keep my mouth shut an continue buying but this is just too much fun for me. I actually enjoy losing auctions when the action is high (no matter how painful) and marvel at HAMMER prices. I would like to start off with 3 auctions that just ended and which I believe reveal how strong this market really is!
1972AaronPSA9 I've been chasing this card for 5 years. Finally, I decided not to lose this one. It had been selling for around 700-800. I sniped 1200.00, this didn't last so I increased to 1500.00 then at the last minute I went 1600.00 thinking no way is this going to go over 2 times normal sales...oops. 1625.00 (EDIT: Note 6 different bidders went over 1000.00!)
1971RosePSA9 Okay, its a Pop 9 Rose! Sold for around 4.2K previously. I definitely wanted this bad boy - and put in a snipe of 5.5K. Thought about it and then went to 5.8K...I went back and forth on whether I should actually go beyond 6K....naw that is crazy. 7988.00! (I wasn't in the same zip code)
Finally one happy ending. If a Rose Pop9 goes for that, then what will a 1971 Banks PSA9 pop3 go for?
Lucked out! I wrote on the mini thread that I felt I got a bargain. Indeed!
1971BanksPSA9 3,935.55 (Yes, it is interesting to note that this auction was private while the other two were PWCC)
So let's have it out! True bull market or a bubble? Is this the savvy investor's response to NSA spying? I know the government has gotten to the point of monitoring all our credit card purchases, as well as gold bullion purchases. Are "investments" like baseball cards and celebrity autographs the new black market investment vehicle? What are your thoughts? What are the future economics of baseball card collecting? Bad news for us collectors? Or good news for us whose collections are made?
75 Minis - GET IN MY BELLY!
0
Comments
I too have enjoyed losing certain auctions realizing the price it sold for is win win.
TheClockworkAngelCollection
TheClockworkAngelCollection
i also noticed a whirlwind on a '74 Winfield PSA 9 which ended at double VCP average. HOLY CRAP!! wasn't there a discussion here recently where that particular card was thought to be generally stagnant while the Brett rookie PSA 9 is taking off?
guess not.
once again, self-gratification notwithstanding, i feel blessed to have grabbed a couple nice raw Winfield rookies which also found their way into 9 holders this past year, and since i found those 2 within a very short period of time, i have not seen another nice raw example which has even come close to consideration for a self-subbed 9.
tracking the movement of both raw cards won and lost and high grade PSA examples, i'm starting to understand where this seems to be headed.
goodbye hindsight. it's not even worth discussing.
<< <i>thanks for bumping the value on that '72 Aaron PSA 9. that was pretty shocking. now i feel blessed to have acquired a nice raw one which found its way into a 9 holder, because i doubt that kind of luck will happen again anytime soon........but -
i also noticed a whirlwind on a '74 Winfield PSA 9 which ended at double VCP average. HOLY CRAP!! wasn't there a discussion here recently where that particular card was thought to be generally stagnant while the Brett rookie PSA 9 is taking off?
guess not.
once again, self-gratification notwithstanding, i feel blessed to have grabbed a couple nice raw Winfield rookies which also found their way into 9 holders this past year, and since i found those 2 within a very short period of time, i have not seen another nice raw example which has even come close to consideration for a self-subbed 9.
tracking the movement of both raw cards won and lost and high grade PSA examples, i'm starting to understand where this seems to be headed.
goodbye hindsight. it's not even worth discussing.
Congrats. That was a gorgeous 9. I feel like in comparison to the other star RC's of the 70's the Winfield is a nice buy
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>I was also looking at the 1971 Rose. The amazing thing is that it is a marginal 9 IMO. If I'm going to shell out that kind of dough, I want a no doubt 9.
I too have enjoyed losing certain auctions realizing the price it sold for is win win. >>
I agree with Todd. The Rose that went down last night in PWCC was definitely a marginal 9, and the price paid was astounding.
The 1972 Aaron PSA 9 from PWCC also went off at incredible levels.
I know of a few deep-pocketed new entrants to the hobby who seem to be focused on the 1970s high-end cards and unopened, but
even that doesn't fully explain what we've been witnessing over the past 6 months. Perhaps the fact that you cant get better than 1%
on a 10-year bank CD in most major US banks might be a contirbuting factor?
I remain cautiously optimistic/bullish about the PSA card market. Now that some of these numbers have been reached, I can't see the
asking prices come back to where they were before. A PSA 8 Clemente RC used to be a $6k card. The last 3 sales were between $9k
and $10.1k! Aaron RCs in PSA 8 have also jumped from the $5k range into the $7k and up range. Even if all of these sales were high end
examples (which they weren't) the price realized data is out there and people are using it as the baseline from this point forward.
Its going to take another economic upheaval for prices to retreat significantly. The volume of sales may slow down from here, but the fever
to get the scarely available high-end items will probably drive things ahead for the foreseeable future. Personally I see the BB unopened market
as being in for much more advancement, as the supply is much smaller than that of the graded cards.
Dave
<< <i>
<< <i>I was also looking at the 1971 Rose. The amazing thing is that it is a marginal 9 IMO. If I'm going to shell out that kind of dough, I want a no doubt 9.
I too have enjoyed losing certain auctions realizing the price it sold for is win win. >>
I agree with Todd. The Rose that went down last night in PWCC was definitely a marginal 9, and the price paid was astounding.
The 1972 Aaron PSA 9 from PWCC also went off at incredible levels.
I know of a few deep-pocketed new entrants to the hobby who seem to be focused on the 1970s high-end cards and unopened, but
even that doesn't fully explain what we've been witnessing over the past 6 months. Perhaps the fact that you cant get better than 1%
on a 10-year bank CD in most major US banks might be a contirbuting factor?
I remain cautiously optimistic/bullish about the PSA card market. Now that some of these numbers have been reached, I can't see the
asking prices come back to where they were before. A PSA 8 Clemente RC used to be a $6k card. The last 3 sales were between $9k
and $10.1k! Aaron RCs in PSA 8 have also jumped from the $5k range into the $7k and up range. Even if all of these sales were high end
examples (which they weren't) the price realized data is out there and people are using it as the baseline from this point forward.
Its going to take another economic upheaval for prices to retreat significantly. The volume of sales may slow down from here, but the fever
to get the scarely available high-end items will probably drive things ahead for the foreseeable future. Personally I see the BB unopened market
as being in for much more advancement, as the supply is much smaller than that of the graded cards. >>
Yes. Funny thing is in a meeting with a financial guy, we were talking about the different diversifications we have money in and out of everything out there what has increased in value the most? The baseball card collection and it's not even close. he snickered a bit and doesn't really get it, but the reality is a lot of the cards I picked up 2-3 years ago have doubled, tripled, maybe even more. Not much out there you can say that about.
Also agree with you Dave on the only thing that will make it collapse is an overall major downturn in the economy as a whole, in which case we're all screwed and every investment drops.
All things being equal and the U.S. economy remains stable no reason we don't see the very high ends cards continue to rise. Populations less than 25 mean there will always be more collectors with deep pockets exceeding supply
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>As for Bears, I think some of the mid-80's PSA 10 prices we are seeing are going to start to level off. The 1984 Donruss Mattingly just keeps getting higher and higher, approaching $700-$800. There are many many 10's and many more to come. Boggs, Gwynn, Sandberg, Ripken, etc. I see supply ultimately starting to exceed demand. >>
To the OP, I think the stock market coming back, the housing market coming back, job market slowly coming back and dare I say inflation thanks to helicopter Ben may all be factors that prices are going up.
To the quote above, I think 80's into 90's b4 inserts/autos/jersey swatches, etc. is going to be a different animal altogether. You may be referring to nationally produced cards in the 80s where my statement will include any card. PEDs will be interesting how it all plays out for one and also where collectors and it appears investors who got burned 20 years ago are starting to come back in....but smarter. They are looking at pop reports, prior sales, print run numbers and taking advantage of all the tools and info that were not available at one's fingertips in the bubble 20 years ago and they feel safer with a big 3 TPG graded card. I thought 2 cards on my radar that went on ebay last week were good buys. A 1995 PSA 10 Iowa Barnstormers Kurt Warner 1/10 for $373 and a 1989 Salem Dodgers Mike Piazza BGS 10 with 3 sub 10s and a surface 9.5; 1/3 went for $616.52. Not shabby. Also, when is the last time you saw any big 3 TPG graded, in any grade, 1982 TCMA Tony Gwynn for sale on ebay? Been a few months now. I think there was one in the last 3 months. Im not talking raw or psa/dna, just a big 3 graded Gwynn card. It's telling me the well is dry and collectors are holding on to the 181 PSA graded examples in their collections and wont let them go at what the prices were when the economy was shaky. PWCC has a 1989 Procards Curt Schilling PSA 10 going right that is taking the type of money I wouldn't have believed 2 years ago. It's not even close to his first card! That was back in 1986. So bets are either being made or people who grew up in that era who want high grade examples of the stars of that time are making a statement. So leveling off in all sectors is not where it appears to be going right now. Economy slips back into recession in the next few years, then all bets are off no matter what era.
All jokes about taking them with us to our graves when we die put aside, my convoluted question is, in 20+ years when we go to liquidate our collections, or our heirs try to figure out what our collections even are, who will the buyers be? I think we are in a bubble for sure. However, the bubble won't break until this generation of collectors start liquidating. The problem is not the price we are paying now, it's the liquidation price in the future. Personally, I do not care about the future price. This is NOT an investment for me. I do not include my cards in my 'net worth' calculations. I am ok with whatever 'market price' is at liquidation for me or my heirs when the time comes.
Who will the buyers be in 20+ years of 70's baseball cards? Are people 'investing' now playing Hot Potato?
<< <i>Great Thread MintMoondog!
All jokes about taking them with us to our graves when we die put aside, my convoluted question is, in 20+ years when we go to liquidate our collections, or our heirs try to figure out what our collections even are, who will the buyers be? I think we are in a bubble for sure. However, the bubble won't break until this generation of collectors start liquidating. The problem is not the price we are paying now, it's the liquidation price in the future. Personally, I do not care about the future price. This is NOT an investment for me. I do not include my cards in my 'net worth' calculations. I am ok with whatever 'market price' is at liquidation for me or my heirs when the time comes.
Who will the buyers be in 20+ years of 70's baseball cards? Are people 'investing' now playing Hot Potato?
Hey Snuff. Two things...at somepoint you need to grace this thread with one of your classic jpgs. Second, that very point was debated by Jim (MiniDuff) and I at length one evening by phone. Our fear was basically each year us old folks just die off and who will be collecting these cards (years) in the future? So each year the pops go up while the number of collectors quietly recedes. I'm a collector so for me that just means more cards per buck! But that is not what I am seeing, and definitely is not the direction that prices are going. I am really open to a lot of different views and maybe we can find some truth among all the clutter.
<< <i>Great Thread MintMoondog!
All jokes about taking them with us to our graves when we die put aside, my convoluted question is, in 20+ years when we go to liquidate our collections, or our heirs try to figure out what our collections even are, who will the buyers be? I think we are in a bubble for sure. However, the bubble won't break until this generation of collectors start liquidating. The problem is not the price we are paying now, it's the liquidation price in the future. Personally, I do not care about the future price. This is NOT an investment for me. I do not include my cards in my 'net worth' calculations. I am ok with whatever 'market price' is at liquidation for me or my heirs when the time comes.
Who will the buyers be in 20+ years of 70's baseball cards? Are people 'investing' now playing Hot Potato?
I have thought about this as well. The 70's and 80's cards are definitely being bought up by guys like us that have these players near and dear to our heart. But will our kids care? I think the answer is definitely yes, and that's based on prices we are seeing for cards like Mantle, Dimaggio, Aaron, Clemente, etc. Those players are more from a different generation yet they still are legendary in the thirty something and forty something's minds. I think the same will be said about the kids gravitating to the players from my time. Gwynn, Brett, Schmidt, Rickey Henderson will always be revered (I hope)
TheClockworkAngelCollection
i don't think any of us WANTS to see it happen, but history is destined to repeat itself, been proven time and again.
so you prepare yourself for any possibility and do your best. can't always be right. it's absolutely true that at times it's better to be lucky than good.
in order for that to happen, you gotta put yourself out there a lot and take those gambles.
the cycle of cards will stay true, whether you are seriously trying to make money or prefer the added aspect of holding because the cards are enjoyable.
<< <i>There's a limited supply ... and it is shrinking. >>
So if I understand you correctly, you are saying that we are NOT in a bubble right now, and there is limited supply out there and its shrinking. If that is what you believe to be true, if someone invested in the below card today, what do you project the 'safe bet' value of it being in 20yrs in current day dollars? Forget about inflation and compounding and the other financial mumbo jumbo. For example, do you think this card will rise on average 5% a year? In 20 years that would make this card over 500.00 in TODAY's dollars (not adjusted for inflation). Do you really think that is sustainable? Do you really think the value of Cliff Johnson is not being caused by a bubble? Who knows! You could be 100% correct. If you are, we should be refinancing our houses to the MAX while interest rates are so low and start buying these Cliff Johnson type cards!!! But then again if (i really mean WHEN) interest rates go higher then people will be making 'safer' investments... then what happens to the price of Cliff Johnson cards? Do they continue to rise in today's dollars? (FYI - I think there will always be a market for the iconic Mantle/Aaron/Ruth & HOFer type cards bubble or not)
1979 TOPPS #114 CLIFF JOHNSON PSA 9
Disclaimer:
This is NOT a personal attack. I have already served a two week banning because of you and am not looking for more. I am just trying to understand your opinion and follow through with what it means. Again, this is a discussion NOT a personal attack on you.
Cliff Johnson
Since the first of the year I have been selectively narrowing my focus on graded cards and unopened. In part it
makes it more fun for me to not be chasing everything and anything. Financially, it is always prudent to take
some money off the table once it has appreciated somewhat.
At this year's National I brought a lot of higher-end cards and vintage unopened with me. Part of the idea was to
attract some attention. The other aspect was to move some items which I am no longer focused on, and to offer
some very hard to find items at significant premiums to see what might happen. In terms of the graded cards things
worked out quite well. In terms of vintage unopened, I did move the 1971 rack with Munson showing at a very healthy
level.
While I did get quite a few inquiries and counteroffers on the vintage unopened, I was in no hurry to move it. It's extremely
difficult to set pricing in this market right now as every additional sale seems to reach new heights. Therefore I set my numbers
and if someone was willing to meet it then they got the item.
There are items I will almost certainly never part with in my vintage unopened holdings, but the majority is available at any time
if the right offer is presented. The same is true on my graded card holdings (though the 1970 registry set with the near complete
AS run in PSA 9 is not open for discussion...lol).
I do not believe we are in a bubble in either high-end graded stars or unopened. However, unless we seed the hobby with people
to follow in our footsteps I do have some concerns about whether the next generation of collectors will place the same kind of value
in the post-war stars and unopened of this era.
Dave
Sell Mortimer! Sell!
<< <i>As a young adult in the 80's I tried to sell my 1962 raw set to a dealer at the San Francisco Expo. We measured the cards( a first for me!) and some of the key cards came up very short. The dealer said the cards were cut and showed the proof. I was devastated. I eventually sold my '63 along with the 1968 and 1969 sets to send my daughter to veterinary school. I slabbed my '63 to supposedly guarantee that my set was authentic. What a racket. A wrinkle? A nick on the corner? Of a baseball card!! This whole thing is a bubble! The United States has a debt so large that in three or four years it will sink our country. Major cities are going bankrupt, towns across the country are not going to honor contracts, union or not. Baseball has/is being ravaged by drug scandals for the past 18 years. Schools are falling apart, our infrastructure is collapsing. Politicians can't figure out what to do. The new socialised health care is a hot mess. The oceans are depleted of fish and polluted and the climate is turning our world into chaos. We've got terrorism breathing down our necks. gas and energy prices rising, clean water becoming a problem and we are worried about a wrinkle in a card that 20 years ago was a great looking piece of history! I am saving only my 1963 Topps Baseball(personal reasons) and selling everything else(not on eBay!).
Sell Mortimer! Sell! >>
Man, you're quite the optimist, there, aren't you? LOL!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>As a young adult in the 80's I tried to sell my 1962 raw set to a dealer at the San Francisco Expo. We measured the cards( a first for me!) and some of the key cards came up very short. The dealer said the cards were cut and showed the proof. I was devastated. I eventually sold my '63 along with the 1968 and 1969 sets to send my daughter to veterinary school. I slabbed my '63 to supposedly guarantee that my set was authentic. What a racket. A wrinkle? A nick on the corner? Of a baseball card!! This whole thing is a bubble! The United States has a debt so large that in three or four years it will sink our country. Major cities are going bankrupt, towns across the country are not going to honor contracts, union or not. Baseball has/is being ravaged by drug scandals for the past 18 years. Schools are falling apart, our infrastructure is collapsing. Politicians can't figure out what to do. The new socialised health care is a hot mess. The oceans are depleted of fish and polluted and the climate is turning our world into chaos. We've got terrorism breathing down our necks. gas and energy prices rising, clean water becoming a problem and we are worried about a wrinkle in a card that 20 years ago was a great looking piece of history! I am saving only my 1963 Topps Baseball(personal reasons) and selling everything else(not on eBay!).
Sell Mortimer! Sell! >>
Wow! So aren't we past 2012? Actually, I would usually advise people to buy guns and ammo as .223 and .40 cal rounds are going to be the new gold if things go south...but in your case I think the last thing you need are weapons
Yes. Funny thing is in a meeting with a financial guy, we were talking about the different diversifications we have money in and out of everything out there what has increased in value the most? The baseball card collection and it's not even close. he snickered a bit and doesn't really get it, but the reality is a lot of the cards I picked up 2-3 years ago have doubled, tripled, maybe even more. Not much out there you can say that about.
You have bought some high profile stars but also tried to bump a bunch of your purchases. I can not remember how you did on the bumps but what has been your actual return across all of your purchases if you do not include any bumped cards? I believe VCP allows you to put your cost in and it will show you the current actual value of your collection. Are you also factoring in consignment or ebay/Paypal fees? Would you mind posting a list to put some numbers behind the increased value of your investment collection?
I have been putting my PSA 9 HOF 70s & up sports collection together for almost 12 years now the only cards that have had any sort of across the board increase seem to be baseball:
Price paid Baseball (all PSA 9) **S&P return since purchase with dividend reinvestment**
72 Fisk $610 (Oct 2008) **106.1%**
73 Gossage $546 (Feb 2009) **122.2%**
73 Schmidt $1210 (Feb 2002) **85.1%**
74 Windfield $256 (Jul 2004) **77.0%**
75 Yount $450 (pre 2007) **UNK**
75 Brett $500 (pre 2007) **UNK**
75 Rice $370 (Feb 2009) **122.2%**
75 Carter $503 (Aug 2007) **27.4%**
75 Mini Yount $300 (Aug 2010) **58.9%**
75 Mini Brett $659 (Oct 2008) **41.8%**
75 Mini Rice $116 (Aug 2009) **74.6%**
75 Mini Carter $175 (Sept 2010) **53.7%**
76 Eckersley $531 (Aug 2008) **41.8%**
77 Sutter $123 (Mar 2007) **32.7%**
77 Dawson $134 (Oct 2004) **62.5%**
78 Murray $268 (Apr 2002) **82.8%**
78 Molitor $282 (Jan 2004) **74.2%**
79 Smith $392 (Mar 2003) **136.3%**
80 Henderson $203 (Jun 2002) **100.0%**
82 TT Ripken $191 (May 2003) **113.1%**
83 Sandberg (self submitted)
83 Gwynn $89 (Feb 2002) **85.1%**
83 Boggs (self submitted)
84 Update Puckett $175 (pre 2007) **UNK***
88 Score Traded Alomar $13 (Jul 2011) **43.1%**
I used http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/ to get the S&P return %s.
Not sure what current prices are (I no longer have my VCP membership since I pretty much only buy modern RCs I think will make the HOF) but I highly doubt more than a handful of the PSA 9 HOF RCs I've purchased over the last 12 years managed to keep up with the S&P. For the most part folks that consider cards investments are simply not doing the math. Now as part of a hobby that gives you enjoyment and may keep up with inflation, sure. As an alternative investment platform for any significant portion of you savings? I would seriously run the numbers and don't discount the 10-15% you will lose due to fees once you sell.
Robb
It is not really a fair comparison though as if you were to look in the overall stock market and were to cherry pick a handful of companies you could easily find some that have drastically out performed all cards. Not to mention the fees associated with owning financial assets and the ease in which you can move large amounts of money.
If you wanted to buy let's say 1 million dollars of the SP 500 you could buy the SPY and use a market order at almost anytime during the day and the size of the inside ask would be large enough to accommodate your order with no impact to the market. If the investor was dealing with an outfit such as Scottrade they could round trip this order for $14 and the ongoing fees are 0.09% per year.
From an investment standpoint clearly the card market can be a good place to have funds positioned and the ultimate problem is scale. If you find a stock that you like you can take a large position or can leverage it further through options and within seconds it can be bought or sold. It is not possible to say I want 50 PSA graded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle's right now.
What drives the value of many collectibles is scarcity and for the price to rise this thesis must stay intact therefore it is not possible to have enough money on the line to really matter in many cases. If someone buys a box of sealed cards that goes from $500 to $900 at first glance this looks like an 80% return. If using a 15% EBAY fee example your return drops from $900 to $765 and takes your rate of return down to 53% and you are up $265. If this sum is changing anyone's life then they have very little saved.
This is why if someone is really trying to use the card market as a platform for investment they should take positions in larger dollar items and can get enough money to work where if their investment turns out to be a good one there is real money made. It is much easier to find a buyer for a few high end cards then it is to sell off 1,000 lower end cards.
In Clockworks example he identified a select grouping of cards that in some ways mirrored the card market like the SP 500 does the broad stock market. I think it was very smart to pick popular cards in the highest grade possible and clearly it has worked. Just like a stock the real question is when do you sell? It is great to have appreciated cards but if you sell them now you are on the outside looking in. I think it would be very difficult to be able to trade the card market. The good news for you is on paper it looks good and have the choice to hit the bid at much higher prices.
<< <i>Just like a stock the real question is when do you sell? >>
Sell when THIS relationship starts to crumble. hmmmm.... Rut Roh Shaggy!!! I think it started!
<< <i>Cliff Johnson is NOT happy about the price of his baseball cards! (or is he?)
Cliff Johnson >>
ALL MY PSA SETS
<< <i>This is why if someone is really trying to use the card market as a platform for investment they should take positions in larger dollar items and can get enough money to work where if their investment turns out to be a good one there is real money made. It is much easier to find a buyer for a few high end cards then it is to sell off 1,000 lower end cards. >>
how easy is it to replace those larger dollar cards, even if as an investment you are able to quantify the return as "good"? it isn't so easy, in fact it's brutally difficult right now.
however, selling 1,000 lower end cards and replacing them is essentially what drives the ability to stay active in the market, particularly if you can do it repeatedly......using 1,000 is just a number for the sake of debate, it could be any number, but there is plenty of room for movement on the lower end, depending on how you get in.
you can classify your "investment" however you like and measure your success along with the time factor involved. it takes a lot of forethought to come up with a plan, and it doesn't always work.
kinda like the stock market.
<< <i>On % basis there can be huge rates of return on low dollar items. Make no mistake about it. The problem is $8 here or $20 there is tough to make real money. Then you have to place a value on your time and labor involved and this significantly reduces the return. Let's not forget about the opportunity cost of your time as well. Selling lower dollar items takes longer and in many cases and have higher fees which is another issue to consider. If someone doesn't have a lot of money to work with the card market is a great place to invest because the barriers to entry are very low. >>
let's use the '72 Aaron PSA 9 as an example - both myself and the OP have been chasing a high end example for an extended period of time, in his case 5 years.
although we each acquired our own example by different means, we are now "investors" in the card.
over the course of that same 5 year period, it would be a reasonable expectation to say that either of us could have bought and sold a plethora of mid or low grade Aaron cards for substantially more than we could ever hope to achieve on a single high end card.
if either of us sell our precious gems, it may take another 5 years to replace it, but in the meantime we could probably buy and sell a dozen of his low grade rookies for a very healthy profit.
again, it's just an example of what could be. my belief is that diversity with a wandering eye to the lower end stuff is a winning proposition.
<< <i>winning >>
I see what you did there! You tossed Snuffy a Softball!
<< <i>
<< <i>On % basis there can be huge rates of return on low dollar items. Make no mistake about it. The problem is $8 here or $20 there is tough to make real money. Then you have to place a value on your time and labor involved and this significantly reduces the return. Let's not forget about the opportunity cost of your time as well. Selling lower dollar items takes longer and in many cases and have higher fees which is another issue to consider. If someone doesn't have a lot of money to work with the card market is a great place to invest because the barriers to entry are very low. >>
let's use the '72 Aaron PSA 9 as an example - both myself and the OP have been chasing a high end example for an extended period of time, in his case 5 years.
although we each acquired our own example by different means, we are now "investors" in the card.
over the course of that same 5 year period, it would be a reasonable expectation to say that either of us could have bought and sold a plethora of mid or low grade Aaron cards for substantially more than we could ever hope to achieve on a single high end card.
if either of us sell our precious gems, it may take another 5 years to replace it, but in the meantime we could probably buy and sell a dozen of his low grade rookies for a very healthy profit.
again, it's just an example of what could be. my belief is that diversity with a wandering eye to the lower end stuff is a winning proposition. >>
This all makes since. Your primary mission I don't believe is investment only. I have a reasonable amount invested in my collection and in many cases have cards that are in theory worth a great deal more then the value I paid. I don't only view it as an investment, it is very much a hobby to me. If I were to look at the time and effort it has taken to put my collection together the on paper rate of return drops significantly.
It is a lot easier to pick a few winners and placing larger bets for an investment only strategy I believe is the best move. This is not how I approach the card hobby so it doesn't even apply to me. If I were only concerned about profit this is how I would go about it.
If someone is a card dealer and buying and selling cards is their primary source of income then they are not really an investor but instead it is their job and these are two completely different scenarios. I am not sure if this applies to you or not.
Anyway I like to see concrete numbers when discussing any sort of investment. I know there was someone that used to post modern case rips and claimed to make money on those rips by grading the stars and hot rookies but had no numbers to back it up. I went ahead and tracked half a dozen of his case rips and subsequent ebay sales and the actual results were about a 50% loss before factoring in grading and consignment fees.
Will 70s low pop commons and stars continue to appreciate? I doubt they keep up with the S&P but that still gives plenty of room for them to rise in value just means they are not a particularly good investment especially since pops can only go up (well except for 75 minis where Mintmoondog has been slowly and single-handedly eliminating shorts). Selling costs are also an enormous factor. The idea that you can get top $ on low pop commons and stars on BST is not realistic, you are pretty much stuck with PWCC, Probstein and perhaps some major auction houses meaning you lose 10% when you decide to sell.
Not 100% sure what people consider an investment but my definition is buy, hold and then sell. Flipping, multiple sales of the same card, etc. is a business not an investment.
Robb
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection
<< <i>If someone is a card dealer and buying and selling cards is their primary source of income then they are not really an investor but instead it is their job and these are two completely different scenarios. I am not sure if this applies to you or not. >>
i've never thought of this as a "job". as for a primary source of income, it feels more like a supplement and always has.
there have been opportunities specifically which could be classified as investments because they are still in that form.
then the activities conducted as a dealer have helped contribute to the cause.
i doubt that i could only do one or the other. i've always been happy to do both.
My comments are simply for placing funds and seeing what happens. When you buy the SP 500 and hold it for say five years there is no real time spent that can enhance your rate of return. It is simply a sunk investment with an unknown outcome. If someone takes the same block of money and trades the market they have time, emotion, opportunity cost and more risk and reward potential associated with the strategy. Two entirely separate things even if the motive is rate of return on the money.
I think the biggest negative that one can point to for cards vs. the stock market is the liquidity. The depth of bids on cards are really not that deep. If just a few buyers step away it can have extreme affects on the price. This can't really be said for a large capitalization stock. There was an auction result posted for a rack pack that sold for $76. There were three bidders involved in the auction. If the winning bidder had not placed a bid the pack would have sold for $67. Yes it is only $9 different but it is 11.80%.
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>I'm a bear on high priced commons whether they be high grade vintage/modern cards or rare back T206 commons. I think people will start asking themselves why they are paying such high prices for players that they never even heard of. I think there still will be a decent market for elite HOFer's that collectors will always want to add to their collection. Unopened will probably do well because of increasing scarcity although if late 80s unopened junk starts going crazy, I think that's a bubble... >>
I agree. You have to have a couple guys with very deep pockets building sets when you happen to be selling your high grade commons to get your money back. Huge risk. The demand will always be there for the iconic HOF's in short supply.
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>Its obviously a bubble....with savings and bond rates so low people just figure instead of parking $20k in a savings account earning 10 bps they will just buy cards..or real estate/equities for that matter. So at 5 bps the cost to carry the $20K in cards is $10 per year. If rates were go to 300 bps the cost of carry to have the cards sitting in your closet is $600 per year and you can compound that for each year after. So if rates start to move up the cost of carry increases and prices should adjust sharply downward. >>
I understand the technical aspects of your logic but disagree in general terms. What you are then saying is that when interest rates are low, everything else will go up in value in "bubble" form because people just park their money wherever...thus everything from the stock-market to wine collections will be inflated in price. When interest rates shoot up then people will sell off their stocks and wine collections to park their money back in banks to harvest the extra 2-3%
This makes sense for stocks and bonds, however, people who buy expensive wine most often use "discretionary" funds not investment funds. They'll pay 1000.00 for a fine bottle and then eventually drink it (consumed and gone). Others save it. A few look to invest. These are monies outside of their investment portfolio. I suspect most of the money in high end cards are discretionary in nature. People buy 1975 minis because they like the cards. The decision to pay 800.00 for a low pop common cant be deemed a rational decision and the likelihood this purchase is made on "technical" terms hard to defend and it would be a dis-service to the intelligence of the purchaser to evaluate the "investment" ability.
So maybe my use of bulls versus bears is a poor choice of framing.
What I think happens in cards, if we take out the clutter of 1000s of individual sale data points, is that price increases are a pure step function. Nothing, nothing, nothing then BOOM! Cards jump to a certain price because a few collectors push each other. If enough other collectors implicitly agree to the fairness of the price, then a new plateau is reached. At this point - it is not easy for the card to decrease in value because 1. People get used to paying that price. 2. People who have the card are reluctant to sell for significantly less....then a reactionary stage occurs.
At the higher price people search their raw cards or try to bump their graded cards to take advantage of the price increase. The pop will then tend to increase. Either collectors will absorb the increase population or the price will gradually recede (this is the fundamental reason why low price common prices are more volatile than star cards). Over time, the extra cards are absorbed into collections. Then slowly demand may develop until another hammer auction which will re-establish a new floor...then the cycle repeats itself.
<< <i>... the only real question is whether or not people will still care about this stuff in the years to come. I'm pretty sure they will, and if they do then values will continue to increase since supply will do the opposite. >>
this is not the only real question, it is the prevailing question, as it has been asked repeatedly throughout the recent years and decades.
how do we sustain this? how do we overcome rough periods? how do we deal with the triumphs, tragedies and reputations of the very people on whom we depend to enhance our holdings?
the folks who preceded us must have cared enough to preserve what we're all fighting over now. whether it was by design or just dumb luck, well........who cares?
What we are witnessing in America is a growth-less recovery. I could spend hours discussing what this means technically but your point is well taken. People, and companies have cash but nothing to invest in because 1. Interest rates are basically zero'ed out so putting money in banks is basically equivalent to putting it in your mattress. 2. There is no growth and the regulatory and tax environment punishes small business so right now people are looking for any place to "park" their money. So this could partially explain the recent price increases.
However, when you look at it that way the price increases are actually very modest...just 1 or 2 millionaires could easily push the prices exceptionally higher. 5 or 6 heavy hitters enter and then things get really interesting! I don't think we are anywhere near the "bubble" level to be honest. My view is that a price increase in the Schmidt rookie from 1.3K to 2K is basically a market adjustment and not speculation. If it goes to 5K then you'll see collectors dumping their Schmidt rookies en mass IMO. But heck, one investment banker could buy 20 PSA 9s at 5K for 100,000 and basically carry well over 10% of the known population. Many others who own the Schmidt rookie don't have any need to sell and any price increase just makes them want to keep the card more...so really what is the possible tradable float? How many more Schmidt 9s are out there in raw form to be mined? So, what is the actual ceiling? Who knows. These are interesting points to debate.
Even though they are both in the high grade PSA category what drives the prices of the two cards is not even remotely the same. The pool of buyers is dramatically larger for the star cards and thus is the liquidity.
Here is an example of why buying low pop commons can be such a terrible idea if one is only concerned about investment.
Here we have a Pop 1 1978 Topps Wayne Nordhagen. $1,225
A simple search of EBAY will allow you see that this card has condition issues on most and thus it would difficult to locate in a Gem Mint grade. The card raw barely sells for $1. Heck if Wayne new one of his baseball cards sold for this price he would be astonished. There were five bidders going after the card and the final hammer was $1,225. Unfortunately for the buyer it only took two weeks for the next PSA 10 to make its way to be EBAY. What happens is that the under bidders are no longer interested in the card at $901 and $1,200 and the card sits at the opening bid of $750 with no action and ended earlier to list at a lower opening bid of $400.
$750
A Pop 1 coming to market is like an IPO. It is the first time it has been offered to the public. It arrives with excitement and in many cases knowledge that it will be showing up for sale soon. A star card on the other hand may have numerous sales and a deep list of people interested in the card.
When was the last time you saw a gyration of 50% in a Jordan rookie in a few week period? Never. This can't be said for the commons.
<< <i>This is why POS amateur Marxists like Obama (sorry but the man is a walking disaster) eventually fail. Their logic is purely in redistribution of existing wealth versus the creation of new wealth. When the economy is humming, interest rates tend to increase because there is demand for money. But with true economic "growth" there is new money, new middle and upper class families and overall discretionary spending increases. Thus everything from stocks, to wine, to baseball cards benefit.
What we are witnessing in America is a growth-less recovery. I could spend hours discussing what this means technically but your point is well taken. People, and companies have cash but nothing to invest in because 1. Interest rates are basically zero'ed out so putting money in banks is basically equivalent to putting it in your mattress. 2. There is no growth and the regulatory and tax environment punishes small business so right now people are looking for any place to "park" their money. So this could partially explain the recent price increases.
However, when you look at it that way the price increases are actually very modest...just 1 or 2 millionaires could easily push the prices exceptionally higher. 5 or 6 heavy hitters enter and then things get really interesting! I don't think we are anywhere near the "bubble" level to be honest. My view is that a price increase in the Schmidt rookie from 1.3K to 2K is basically a market adjustment and not speculation. If it goes to 5K then you'll see collectors dumping their Schmidt rookies en mass IMO. But heck, one investment banker could by 20 PSA 9s at 5K for 100,000 and basically carry well over 10% of the known population. Many others don't have any need to sell and any price increase just makes them want to keep the card longer...so really what is the possible float? These are interesting points to debate. >>
There are some good points made here. One you are comparing the move higher to a breakout in a stock. The Schmidt built a very solid base for a period of time and essentially broke out of that base and moved much higher. Generally the stock will have some corrective activity that is modest and build another base and trend sideways for some period of time and break out once more. Two this hobby is very small. If someone with deep pockets comes in and hoards a card the price can remain high for a very long period of time and the knowledge that someone is buying will keep others from selling.
The point is on a longer term basis a star card has a much different risk profile then a low pop common and especially in the large card sets. I don't doubt that in 20 years there will be interest in an Eddie Murray or Paul Molitor rookie card from the 1978 Topps set. I do think there is easily the chance that there won't be much interest in a Wayne Nordhagen in any condition. Only time will tell and in reality none of us have a crystal ball. Can you imagine in 1978 telling someone opening these packs of cards that one day an example of Wayne Nordhagen would be worth more then almost any card in the set and would sell for $1,225? No one with a pulse could have predicted this.
To psychump's point there will certainly be a volatile period of some kind when our interest rates climb. It is unavoidable. A 1% change in rates this year across the treasury curve is 168 billion in new interest expense. Every year that number goes up. I think making forecasts for 20 years down the road is very unpredictable and there are certainly some cards that can deal with a volatile economic period but a PSA 10 Wayne Nordhagen is not one of them.
There are some that have reached iconic status and based on the fact that the market has determined that the likelihood of any large hoard of raw in high grade floating around is basically zero the card has gained an actual market and floor.
ICONIC COMMONS:
Some examples: 1971 Claude Raymond / Shellenback; 1970 any of the AS cards...they are brutal; 1973 Del Unser; 1975 Mini red/yellow and green/yellow combos (this can be a complete article in and of themselves); 1976 Rick Miller, Briggs, Torre; etc...in other years it is still dangerous as the amount of unopened can play tricks with the population. Any of the low pops in 1977, 1978 and 1979 are still subject to box/case breaks so tread carefully even though we know that 10-25 of the cards are much more difficult than others.
SPECULATIVE COMMONS:
Dpeck you are absolutely correct on the Nordhagen psa10, that value and the value of similar cards are tied directly to their population number...the card goes to pop two and it drops (maybe not much if one other big collector needs it), once it starts to hit 3 and 4 then all bets are off...it will sell at similar prices as all other pop 3 and pop 4. The odds are basically unfavorable 3-5 years ago...even money today, because as the unopened material dissipates the likelihood that more 10s are going to pop up in large numbers disappears (except for the dreaded sheet-cutters). It really is a highly risky game, but one has to play it if you are constructing top sets and are in the registry game.
<< <i>The Schmidt built a very solid base for a period of time and essentially broke out of that base and moved much higher. >>
Did the Schmidt break out? Or did one person decide he was going to win every PSA 9 that comes up for auction? The end result may or may not be the same.
Is one person winning many of the auctions on the PSA 9 Mike Schmidt?
Many of these HOF rookies essentially traded in a range for a number of years and moved aggressively out of their trading ranges. Many times with stocks these are the most explosive break outs but with cards I doubt there is any hard data to compare against.
<< <i>Is one person winning many of the auctions on the PSA 9 Mike Schmidt? >>
I believe so. And that person is also hyping the price increase on this message board.
I understand there's still an under bidder at higher levels than in the past but it feels like manipulation.
The real price support on the card is around $1,400 currently when looking at the bids. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe this used to be an $825+ card?