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PM Trend

KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186
in Precious Metals
Question for those professionals who read charts:

What is the tren for gold/silver?
What is the trend of the dollar?

Comments

  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    I'm not a professional. There are a lot of trend following indicators. One of the simpler and older forms is a simple moving average. The most commonly used ones are 200 day moving average, and 50 day. Traditionally, the 200 day is the long term trend, the 50 day for the intermediate term.

    Here is a GLD chart with those two lines:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=b&p=m50,m200&a=f14,vm&c=
    link

    Above the line means the trend is up, below means the trend is down. Simple and easy, though by no means a guarantee of profit or loss. At the line, means the trend is mixed. Frequent crossovers often mean the market is undecided. A wide gap above or below the moving average line means it is extended. Also popular are the 30 day and 10 day moving averages. Some use an even shorter time span.

    Substitute SLV for silver, or UUP for the dollar index.

    There are many more indicators that some folks use. Some are fancy and incredibly complex, many are proprietary. A step up in complexity might be an indicator such as MACD (moving average convergence divergence), which looks for the crossover of two moving averages. As always, no indicator is 100%. Anything that shows promise that gets publicized, will often stop working because too many people are using it.
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  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Charts are historical, not predictive, although many use them as such. Cheers, RickO
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PM's are more subject to econo-political stimuli than most assets and are best forecast by following the trend of events that affect them. Markets are really no longer predictable using hardfast proven tools of the past. The FED/FOMC are now dealing the cards and the successful player from here out will keep his eyes (and not his ears) on the dealer.

    My indicators come from the news, not the charts. Here's an example.

    I continue to see a strong long term outlook for metals and a weak long term outlook for the dollar, regardless of recent moves for both. Interest rates are at the top of the list on all things metal and paper. Interest rates are the biggest ticking bomb in the derivative vault of every major bank. We have all by now witnessed first hand a major banking crisis and the insane events that must take place to save those banks. And yes, they must be saved because we have allowed our entire economic world to revolve around them.

    Gold upticks are heavily dependent on dollar index downticks. The dollar index is heavily dependent on strength/weakness of the euro and the yen. Actual dollar strength is heavily dependent on its reserve currency status. Threats to euro and yen strength are postive for the dollar index and negative for PMs. Threats to dollar reserve currency status are positive for PMs.

    And no, I'm not a professional, just a diligent player who attempts to do his homework in effort to protect my savings.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    MJR ‏@panamaorange 6 Aug
    $SI_F $GC_F Most bearish sign for $GLD and $SLV is fact that they cant even keep up with recent rises in gas,or groceries.
    Stack "pop tarts"
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>MJR þ@panamaorange 6 Aug
    $SI_F $GC_F Most bearish sign for $GLD and $SLV is fact that they cant even keep up with recent rises in gas,or groceries.
    Stack "pop tarts" >>


    Or stack real PMs instead of paper promises like GLD and SLV.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>MJR þ@panamaorange 6 Aug
    $SI_F $GC_F Most bearish sign for $GLD and $SLV is fact that they cant even keep up with recent rises in gas,or groceries.
    Stack "pop tarts" >>


    Or stack real PMs instead of paper promises like GLD and SLV. >>



    so are you saying real PMs prices go up when paper priced promises go down?
    or what exactly are you saying? thanks...

    i do know some guys who bought phyzz at 1600-1850+ gold and alot of 30+ silver,
    they said it was real PM's and they had them in their hands, and they had been buying to protect themselves
    & keep up with rising prices in other consumable items...

    so i really like to tell them they can still liquidate at those prices or higher and where...
    keceph `anah
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    oh, forgot 12,302 today...not bad day so far...
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>MJR þ@panamaorange 6 Aug
    $SI_F $GC_F Most bearish sign for $GLD and $SLV is fact that they cant even keep up with recent rises in gas,or groceries.
    Stack "pop tarts" >>


    Or stack real PMs instead of paper promises like GLD and SLV. >>



    so are you saying real PMs prices go up when paper priced promises go down?
    or what exactly are you saying? thanks... >>


    What I'm saying is that when the music stops, the holders of real PMs are guaranteed a chair. Those who are seated will be greatly rewarded. Check the shelf life on your pop tarts.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • daOnlyBGdaOnlyBG Posts: 1,060 ✭✭


    << <i>Charts are historical, not predictive, although many use them as such. Cheers, RickO >>


    Exactly. You can't drive forward looking through your rear view mirror the entire time. Charts are based on inductive reasoning, and thus, it only takes one counterexample to prove a chart/"trend" useless. However, for educational sake, if you want to learn about charts... a good one to start with is the moving average that other fine members of the board have suggested.
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  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i> Check the shelf life on your pop tarts. >>


    im almost positive the pop tart reference was tongue in cheek...
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i> Check the shelf life on your pop tarts. >>


    im almost positive the pop tart reference was tongue in cheek... >>


    so was the shelf life comment. image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • Timbuk3Timbuk3 Posts: 11,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Charts are historical, but does
    not take into consideration
    current social, political, and
    economic conditions !!! image
    Timbuk3
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Charts are historical, but does
    not take into consideration
    current social, political, and
    economic conditions !!! image >>



    charts are like that because the prices were already affected by S,P & EC...imageimage
    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,138 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The opinions given in this thread illustrate exactly why charts do work
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The opinions given in this thread illustrate exactly why charts do work >>


    Could you please chart how you came to that remarkable conclusion?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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