Silver Prediction
vpr
Posts: 606 ✭✭✭
Saw it on the charts and just had to post. Looks like we are likely to very soon re-test the lows we made and possibly go lower. Who is with me?
References: Too many to list. PM for details. 100% satisfaction both as buyer and seller. As a seller, I ship promptly and keep buyers updated.
0
Comments
sits at bout 19.68 coincidently right now...
Sorry, but I'm not with you this time. What do you mean by re-test? It aint much higher than what it bottomed out at recently. That wouldn't be considered a re-test if silver went down $1, at least not in my book.
<< <i>phyzz buying amongst us has absolutely nothing to do with futures/spot price or price movement... >>
Speculators drive the PM markets and it appears that there are more lucrative fertile grounds in their sights.
Physical buyers may get their day in the Sun again, when they do, it will be when least expected.
On the contrary I feel. IF Spot does go down, all that means is the premium for phyzz will be that much larger because a wise man recently said here that "spot price of silver pretty much meaningless."
I know that was said with regards to collectible silver such as a 4 oz engelhard, but I feel it will apply to merry xmas rounds as well to some degree.
continue lower !!!
There's only so much premiums can do for you. IF they go up too much, there will be more sellers bringing premiums down. So, no matter what people on here say (since most everyone owns a good amount of PMs and therefore exhibit a bias for PM prices), spot prices still dictate what physical sells for. Maybe in the future that will not be the case but for now it still is.
I knew it would happen.
until you inferred that your observance of physical buying and maybe some others had something to do with the spot/futures price of silver... it does not...
maybe you read OP to quickly, lol...
there is always possibility if spot prices move lower that premiums may rise, but that too is speculation...
I agree, demand is high. So if demand is high, why isn't Spot (paper) in relation to where it's been recently? I guess it's because although demand is high it's not high enough, but is high enough to command a decent premium for phyzz right now.
So my question...if Spot goes UP to lets say $27 for silver, what happens to the premiums? I'd bet they shrink.
As to your 2nd thought, I agree again. With more talk of QE being "tapered down", that will I would most certainly cause a significant drop in SPOT, but will it in phyzz? We'll see.
But wtf do I know? I'm just a squirrel trying to time a few buys here & there right. If I was a bigtime metals player, I wouldn't be on a chat board.
April 1, 2017
P.S. I reserve the right to have fun with this.
Charts? CHARTS? We don nee no stinking charts! Nice to see that there's at least 2 of us here that feel this way about charts.
Don't get me totally wrong though, they do have the benfit of telling what happened when similar circumstances were in play. But to use them to say that it (whatever it is) will happen again, especially in this kind of market...silly.
<< <i>"Charts"? My opinion is that charts tell you where you've been but not where you're going.... Using charts to predict the future is like driving a car by looking only at the rear-view mirror....
Charts? CHARTS? We don nee no stinking charts! Nice to see that there's at least 2 of us here that feel this way about charts.
Don't get me totally wrong though, they do have the benfit of telling what happened when similar circumstances were in play. But to use them to say that it (whatever it is) will happen again, especially in this kind of market...silly. >>
I have to partially agree with your observation of charts. They do not foretell the future, however, it's a tool describing what occurred in the past under similar circumstances...But a wise man once said: "Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it"
But if that's the case, then nothing would ever really change, and I would hope that you would agree that we are currently living in some fairly dramatically changing times, not just as it pertains to pm's, but in general. Maybe you wont, but that's how I feel about it.
<< <i>
<< <i>Saw it on the charts and just had to post. Looks like we are likely to very soon re-test the lows we made and possibly go lower. Who is with me? >>
Not me.... I believe the true value of Silver to be much higher than the current price, for reasons stated many times in these forums.
My question to you is "based on what?". You keep coming on here and saying "I think it's going to go down", but you never tell us why you believe that.
"Charts"? My opinion is that charts tell you where you've been but not where you're going.... Using charts to predict the future is like driving a car by looking only at the rear-view mirror....
With one single entity controlling ~25% of the open interest in the COMEX, I say it will go where ever they want it to go! And charts will provide you with no clues....
Cheers, >>
I'm stating just my opinion. Of course no one can predict where we will go. And no, charts do tell you a lot more than what happened in the past. They give you an idea of who is in control - the buyers or the sellers. And I see that the sellers are still in control.
What is true value exactly? The value you put on silver? If it is much higher than current prices, would you be willing to buy some off me for that price? If not, then the true value of silver is what the market says it is. What you feel is true value is just your prediction for future silver prices. It so happens that my predictions are also for a higher price in the future.
And no, COMEX is not THE MARKET for silver. The spot market is also big, if not bigger.
without goin into a dissertation and describe the committment of time, discipline & effort, to just begin to learn about charts,
i will say to the earth is still flat party(lol), the best way i've learned to maybe explain it is charting is like card counting in blackjack...
it gives u an edge, u wont always win because of the randomness of exact cards in line to come up,
but beyond any doubt or argument you have an edge, and even a greater one than the ones playing next to you for fun,
that are thinking, feeling & hoping they may, if they get good cards, win some significant $$$...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Fair enough, just thought maybe you would share the reasons that went into determining your "opinion". >>
Ive shared my reasons over countless threads in this forum over the past 10 years. My opinion is my experience over the past 25 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Fair enough, just thought maybe you would share the reasons that went into determining your "opinion".
This is probably my favorite chart, I believe it indicates how "under priced" Silver currently is, as compared to the last several Centuries.
Real price of Silver >>
In your chart, if I were substitute the word silver for the words US dollar, the charts would look very similar. Would you say the dollar is "underpriced"? There is much more to reading and understanding charts than just a few squiggly lines.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Fair enough, just thought maybe you would share the reasons that went into determining your "opinion".
This is probably my favorite chart, I believe it indicates how "under priced" Silver currently is, as compared to the last several Centuries.
Real price of Silver >>
Happen to have that chart in 2013 dollars, those are ones in my wallet?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>12,301 today...12,302 tomorrow...? >>
so now here we are at 12,302 days...does it matter?, can we glean any info from it?, or is it meaningless gibberish?...
its been that many days (maybe longer than some here have actually been breathing) ago,
on DEC 2, 1979 the LBMA silver price closed at a record high of $19.88...
Oh I know what you'll say now. You're in it for the long haul and a 3 day 7% move can't persuade you, right?
Well, I'll take this action even if you STILL think it's headed down. The point is, there's action, take advantage of a situation that presents itself.
And who says phyzz buying amongst us has absolutely nothing to do with futures/spot price or price movement? (insert sarcasm icon here)
and confusing anecdotal evidence with reality...
<< <i>I see that, but price action tells me we're going lower. We might bounce to about $21 if there is an attempt to move higher in the short term. But, i see it as very unlikely that we will bounce off this level and keep heading higher. If we break this level, I wonder how low we might go. >>
Well, we hit the $21 level today....Time will tell if this is another head fake...( Personally, I don't think so ) PM action for the rest of this week will be interesting.
It was my own way of congratulating vpr on his call to $21 as OPA has noted...we'll see what happens from here. I think there's alot of people just wanting out in the $25 range, and significantly more in the $30 range. If for some crazy reason those leveals are realized, THAT'S the point where I'd REALLY like to see what happens from that point.
that happens its doom...
Physical purchases for investment purposes are still a tiny tiny part of the overall silver market. Silver is much more affected by the economy as it is used a lot more, to make other goods.
<< <i>I have to admit that my reasons for being bearish no longer exist. I'm still not bullish though. I will wait to see what the Fed does/says next month. People have gotten a bit more optimistic on China in the past couple of weeks so that might be helping silver. I still think there will be more bad news out of China and that should seriously hurt silver. If that doesn't play out, I might get back into silver in the $30s.
Physical purchases for investment purposes are still a tiny tiny part of the overall silver market. Silver is much more affected by the economy as it is used a lot more, to make other goods. >>
As long as the FED talks about pulling in the reins and continues to inflate, the price
is very likely to go higher. We're at the point where this "new math" is being tested. I
believe it's impossible to take more out of a box than you put in it. The FED thinks you
can do this indefinitely. In order to stop inflating they have to let interest rates rise and there
is doubt that the economy can tolerate even slight increases. (besides the bankers won't
want to pay interest anyway now they know they don't have to).
It may well be both higher metals and higher interest rates even though they normally move
in different directions. Bonds are far riskier than ever before so some money will move into
metals.
Watch out for a bull trap though silver prices can't go much lower. Gold has more room to move
down but $1000 should hold.
Metals will will fall on the news of a cessation of bond buying but still trend higher, I believe. If
efficiency is increased and productivity improves there could be startling improvements across the
board but this isn't likely because it wouldn't suit the powers that be. So best bet is stagnating
stock market in the short term followed by great strenght in the intermediate term. Inflation will
ramp up to about 10% in real terms (it's ~5%) before the FED pulls in the reins. At that time it's
anyone's guess what will happen but my guess is within 18 months it will be obvious inflation is
coming big because interest rate increases shake the bond market. Then we'll see stocks at 50000
and gold at $2500 assuming good productivity increases. Without productivity increases there's
going to be a devastating inflationary depression. The government has engineered this right from
square one and they are going to try to just squeek by. Mostly we'll see a growing disparity between
the wealthy and everyone else and the question is whether everyone else will go down a little or
all the way.
These are still interesting times and there is an ongoing accounting by mother nature who is not
amused.