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I think we're at the low.......

DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Maybe I'll look very dumb in the next few months, but I'm thinking with today's action we're at the low point of this big drop in PM's.

Just my gut feeling.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)

Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It appears Bernanke comments today made that possible. Dollar index responded very negatively, good thing for gold.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • AmigoAmigo Posts: 966 ✭

    So long as we're working off gut feelings only

    I think PMs will continue to slide down. How far I don't know. How long I don't know. From here on out, PM's are a bad investment until SHTF and we end up in a highly inflationary period.
  • chumleychumley Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭✭
    we will not go below $18 but it will be a long slow climb back up
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    What chumley said. $18 seems strong on silver, but $35 might as well be a lifetime away imo.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,315 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What chumley said. $18 seems strong on silver, but $35 might as well be a lifetime away imo. >>



    Wow!...You must be 90 years old then (lol).

    Seriously, I would wager that in the next five years, silver will close at $35. (easy money for me).
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,993 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Maybe I'll look very dumb in the next few months, but I'm thinking with today's action we're at the low point of this big drop in PM's.

    Just my gut feeling. >>



    That sub $1200 gold we saw a couple weeks ago will be the low for 2013. Promise. image
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What chumley said. $18 seems strong on silver, but $35 might as well be a lifetime away imo. >>



    yupper
    theknowitalltroll;
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PM's will recover in the fall..... sure, just a prediction... Cheers, RickO
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,140 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>PM's will recover in the fall..... sure, just a prediction... Cheers, RickO >>



    My gut feeling is that you are right.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    Interesting counterpoint between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and GLD (Gold ETF).

    SPY began 2013 at 142.40 and now is at 167, up 17%.
    GLD began 2013 at 162 and now is at 124, down 23%

    Both are up today as Ben confirms that Fed easing continues.

    The SPY vs. GLD tells me that fear has diminished and confidence has
    increased.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,227 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Confidence in the economy? image
  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Confidence in the economy? image >>



    The 10% of America that owns most of the shares of stock is doing quite well and investing more.

    I see that restaurants are full, real estate prices are rising, air fares are increasing, new auto sales are at the highest
    level in 5 years.

    But, not just the top 10%, the other 90% are doing better too. Sales reports for Wal-Mart, Target, the dollar stores, Macy, etc.,
    are strong.

    Banks are improving balance sheets and raising dividends. All this with Ben's very low interest rates.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,227 ✭✭✭✭✭


    We have 3 house starts since the middle of May. That's not an improvement . If one sells we start one more , the spec market is one at a time by people with deep pockets .
    Even before the recent bump in mortgage rates this is a dead market. Its just going to get deader. There are basically no people wanting a house custom built unless they are 1%'ers .


    GM can sell all the cars they want to their captive dealers , what is the sell through rate to consumers at the dealership? Channel stuffing doesn't impress me. There probably aren't half as many dealerships around as there were a decade ago. That isn't just GM either, we have lost 3 long time Ford dealers in my area in the past few years and Ford has been pretty solid.




  • C0INB0YC0INB0Y Posts: 627 ✭✭


    << <i>Maybe I'll look very dumb in the next few months, but I'm thinking with today's action we're at the low point of this big drop in PM's.

    Just my gut feeling. >>



    This could be a Bull Trap meaning just one more BIG down burst to clean out all the residual hope, then it is the bottom. image
    I was ‘COINB0Y' with 4812 posts and ‘Expert Collector’ ranking (Joined in 2006).
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,315 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Maybe I'll look very dumb in the next few months, but I'm thinking with today's action we're at the low point of this big drop in PM's.

    Just my gut feeling. >>



    This could be a Bull Trap meaning just one more BIG down burst to clean out all the residual hope, then it is the bottom. image >>



    That wouldn't surprise me either.
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>What chumley said. $18 seems strong on silver, but $35 might as well be a lifetime away imo. >>



    Wow!...You must be 90 years old then (lol).

    Seriously, I would wager that in the next five years, silver will close at $35. (easy money for me). >>




    That will be 7-8 years for a lot of people to get back to even. Ugh!!

    I sure hope the price of other goods and assets stay flat or else PMs will have failed miserably as a store of value.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bronco, what area of the NE are you in? There are areas that will always be depressed while others thrive.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,227 ✭✭✭✭✭


    I'm in SE Mass just off the cape . Single spec houses or town houses in over 55 communities sprinkled with a few rich people with bad taste and plenty of cash seems to be the market . No end in sight really.

    Lots of new regulations too which aren't helping . I worked on a big private garage last year where the town decided the owner had to spring for hurricane glass and it added $30,000 to the bottom line . It was a big garage (6 cars) but the windows in a garage shouldn't cost a fraction of that. It's not living space , who cares if the windows break? Its 7 or 8 miles from the water in a forested area if a 70 foot tree falls on it stronger glass isn't going to be much help.




  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Maybe I'll look very dumb in the next few months, but I'm thinking with today's action we're at the low point of this big drop in PM's.

    Just my gut feeling. >>



    The low point for gold was about $100 ago.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • coinrollhuntercoinrollhunter Posts: 280
    Your guess is just as good as mine for the future price of precious metals-but I don't think gold/silver/plat/palladium have reached their low for a while.
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