cohodk is gonna start stacking now
cohodk
Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
$1236/18.82
I'm usually early with my calls so gold and silver could still drop another 10%, I see enough value to begin to accumulate. Other than the initial dead cat bounce from these levels I am not expecting out sized returns for several years. Prices may still be near here a year from now.
Since volatility is high, I may take advantage of selling elevated premiums.
I'm usually early with my calls so gold and silver could still drop another 10%, I see enough value to begin to accumulate. Other than the initial dead cat bounce from these levels I am not expecting out sized returns for several years. Prices may still be near here a year from now.
Since volatility is high, I may take advantage of selling elevated premiums.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
0
Comments
Now that the great Coho announced he's buying, I'm just going to go take an overdose of GB. What an obummer.
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My thinking is that the amateurs will be telling themselves that silver is a bargain under 20, and the naked shorts who are pushing
this down will take it under 10, just to try and get these buyers in the high teens to jump ship as well. Remember, the profits from 18 down to 9 are just
as good as the profits from 40 to 18. A white-wash is taking place. If you can't recognize that, then you'll keep losing money. Just my opinion, but best of luck.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>Holy crap, never thought I'd see this in the past 9 years! When did you last buy to hold? >>
I last bought in 2010 in the teens. Sold at about 30. Had no intention of long term hold, but I may be more patient now. $25 will be strong resistance so I will trade out of some there or at least hedge.
Love you too Numbers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I do feel more comfortable buying at these levels than at $1800/38.
My "official" position has changed from bearish to neutral. I am more inclined to entertain the thought of purchasing now than 6 months ago. 1150/15 are entirely possible. On a risk/reward basis, PMs are less risky now after 40-60% declines. This has been my point all along. Gold and silver did not protect anyones wealth the last 2 years. But now in comparing assset classes, PMs are beginning to offer value. And value is what any investor should consider first.
Gold and equities have had the same returns since the 2008 crisis. Gold has not outperformed equities regardless of QE to Infinity and trillions more debt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I see nothing in your chart to show me why you would want to buy now, or anytime soon.
Given what else we know, I do see why one might want to be lightening up on stocks.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So what is going to be the prefered purchase, gov or private mint stuff? >>
If your looking for gold...It can be had for $13 above spot....OPM .999 1 oz gold bars at Provident.
OPM 1 oz gold bars
<< <i>If you "pulled the trigger" at the price quoted, you are already in the red ..... "patience grasshopper"... I'll continue to wait. Might not catch the bottom, but on the other hand, not going in the red any further. >>
This.
Each time silver drops, I find it more and more risky- to do otherwise would be to assume the price of silver converges to a certain price level. Think of it as "trading momentum." Silver has built up a lot of it.
It's better to buy at 19 while silver is on it's way up than to buy at $18.50 when silver is on it's way down... just my 2¢
Interests:
Pre-Jump Grade Project
Toned Commemoratives
I see sub 1000 gold now easily
<< <i>I haven't changed my preference for precious metals over all other assets, and I'm still averaging in over time but........................
I see nothing in your chart to show me why you would want to buy now, or anytime soon.
Given what else we know, I do see why one might want to be lightening up on stocks. >>
I expect this pattern to begin a sideways move.
I am not backing up the truck and going all in.
I do not expect gold to go straight up from here.
I am beginning to look for opportunities.
I do expect to be underwater at some time.
I will be trading some and hedging some as well as building a longer term position.
I think stocks and gold will have similar returns over the next 2 years.
I will be buying bars over coins. Gold is gold--why pay a premium? I will even buy scrap jewelry.
I am not saying 1250 is THE bottom, only that I will begin to accumulate when opportunity presents.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> am not saying 1250 is THE bottom, only that I will begin to accumulate when opportunity presents. >>
How about $1200-$1225
Regards
Kelly "Kip" Strong
edited for spelling
Everyone who purchased gold prior to its peak is down about 36% unless they paid a premium in which case their losses could be greater. Those who purchased silver prior to its peak are down 63%, or more if they paid a premium. Dont argue that since you paid $15 for silver in 2007 that you havent lost anything and are in fact up 20%. Not even trying to consider that you would have sold at the peak- no one would have- but in terms of convertibility into another asset or fiat currency, your stack just doesnt go as far. You dont have to sell to have lost. You also have incurred opportunity costs as well as loss of time. So yes, I know, the losses are considerable.
Cohodk, are you buying gold only , or silver as well
Yes, I will buy silver, but I will not pay massive premiums. If I cant get it for close to spot then Im not interested.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
"Gold Is Unsafe at Any Price: June 26, 2013
Those looking to buy the dip in gold are fighting the trend, a tide of so called 'weak-hand' sellers and a broken fundamental investment thesis, writes Breakout's Jeff Macke".
if "the fundamentals" primarily consist of collectors (in whatever form: bars, coins, jewelry) then the premium will vary with the desirability of the shape the metal is formed in, but all forms that trade close to spot (because they're not especially rare, pretty, or have high historic or collectible value) will be coming down in overall price pretty soon, though the relative % premium will probably actually go up at first because the sellers will try to maximize the numsimatic premium to make up for the fall in the underlying metal.
I like old coins and pretty coins so I'm going to start looking at MS63 and MS64 saints, also the AUs... in fact might be a good time to work on a grading set with every grade between VF20 and MS66 represented, or target a roll of XF/AUs at as near spot as possible, then I could clink them around, stack them like poker chips, and otherwise be occasionally entertained by their weight and novelty while waiting for a return to higher prices
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I like old coins and pretty coins so I'm going to start looking at MS63 and MS64 saints, also the AUs... in fact might be a good time to work on a grading set with every grade between VF20 and MS66 represented, or target a roll of XF/AUs at as near spot as possible, then I could clink them around, stack them like poker chips, and otherwise be occasionally entertained by their weight and novelty while waiting for a return to higher prices >>
Graded Saints near the bullion price is a very sound way to go.
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<< <i>Graded Saints near the bullion price is a very sound way to go. >>
I buy my mine from a unicorn.
I generally agree that things are about done on this current shorter term drop both from a % drop standpoint and time. The 1974-1976 downturn was 20 months. This current one has lasted a little longer at 22 months. The 1974-1976 downturn was basically a straight run down of -47%. You can bet that the bearishness tone by August 1976 was deafening, much the same way it is now. How many "sharp" coin or bullion players in August 1976 called that turn correctly and saw an 8X increase in gold? So far this correction has given back 39%. We'd have to get to $1020 to match the 47% correction of the mid-1970's. That 47% correction came on the heels of a parabolic move that doubled the price of gold in 6 months. We had no such mania at the $1923 peak where the final 6 months produced a 37% gain. It's logical to assume that a correction longer in price but less on % drop would be in order vs. 1974-1976. No guarantees though. Another key point is that gold has been putting in tops at the 20-22 month point from 2001-2011. While many were expecting another top in June 2013 at the next 21 month milestone, it worked out exactly the opposite....a sharp, mania-like bottom, which could still run down further. The 2008 downturn only took 8 months. This current downturn has put a pair of those 8-9 month downturns back to back to form this extended 22 month correction. 9 months down, 4 months up, 9 months down. The symmetry in time is hard to miss. It took gold 3-1/2 years in 1974-1976 to get back to its old high (5 years for silver). That would mean another year and a half or so from today for gold to match that same pattern. Miners will probably far outperform the metal once the bottom is in or near.
The Gold to silver ratio chart has been following the same path that it did in 2003-2008, almost to the tee when it comes to cycles and time. The GSR has now completed the 3rd month of a 4 year downtrend breakout (2008-2013) much like it did in 2003-2008. The months of Aug-Oct 2008 parallel closely to the current months of April-June 2013. The major difference is that those 3 months in 2008 showed huge gains in the GSR. Other than April 2013, the past 2 months have been much more subdued in their rise. June 2013 monthly candle is an inverted hammer or a gravestone doji...both bearish. It compares well to the October 2008 inverted hammer. Note that rebounds did occur in Nov/Dec 2008 so July/August 2013 may still hold challenges for PM's. In 2008 the dollar rose massively with the GSR (86+) to 88-90. So far we don't have the dollar's cooperation to go above 84.5. The GSR will need that if it wants to bust through 70 and head to 80+ again. Oddly, even with this "mild" rise in GSR, the price damage to gold and silver is on the same order as they did to them in 2008. I think the same fractal that played out in GSR from 2003-2008 is now completing again in 2013. It could already be over with June now closed. But aftershocks in July/August are still possible. But, the heaviest pushing down is probably now down just like in 2008. Monthly gold RSI is now at a very low 33, the lowest seen since the bottom of the 20 year bear in 1997-1999. One concern I have is that a possible gap was left behind in gold at the $1044 area that may be the eventual pull. It seems gold never did deep backtests of its breakouts once it got above $1033 in fall of 2009 (ie after the $1226 high). There was a weaker backtest in Oct 2009 from $1070 to $1025. Don't know if that was adequate. It seems that gold has been pulling back at each support level to perform a thorough backtest. The $1044 level would be the last of them as the Oct 2008 dip to $681 properly backtested the April 2006 high of $730. No way to know if $1044 is a target or if backtesting the $1226 Nov 2010 peak was enough. Could be either case. In the short term gold is due for a bounce after a $309/oz drop.
Monthly GSR chart can be found here:
Net-dania link.....java required
(for GSR, select "instruments," then "more instruments" at bottom of the list, select "precious metals NetDania," select "gold to silver ratio," select the monthly chart time scale).
Gold chart 1974-1979
<< <i>I agree with Cohodk that things are about done on this downturn from both a % drop standpoint and time. The 1974-1976 downturn was 20 months. This current one has lasted a little longer at 22 months. The 1974-1976 downturn was basically a straight run down of -47%. You can bet that the bearishness tone by August 1976 was deafening, much the same way it is now. How many "sharp" coin or bullion players in August 1976 called that turn correctly and saw an 8X increase in gold? So far this correction has given back 39%. We'd have to get to $1020 to match the 47% correction of the mid-1970's. That 47% correction came on the heels of a parabolic move that doubled the price of gold in 6 months. We had no such mania at the $1923 peak where the final 6 months produced a 37% gain. It's logical to assume that a correction longer in price but less on % drop would be in order vs. 1974-1976. No guarantees though. Another key point is that gold has been putting in tops at the 20-22 month point from 2001-2011. While many were expecting another top in June 2013 at the next 21 month milestone, it worked out exactly the opposite....a sharp, mania-like bottom, which could still run down further. The 2008 downturn only took 8 months. This current downturn has put a pair of those 8-9 month downturns back to back to form this extended 22 month correction. 9 months down, 4 months up, 9 months down. The symmetry in time is hard to miss. It took gold 3-1/2 years in 1974-1976 to get back to its old high (5 years for silver). That would mean another year and a half or so from today for gold to match that same pattern.
The Gold to silver ratio chart has been following the same path that it did in 2003-2008, almost to the tee when it comes to cycles and time. The GSR has now completed the 3rd month of a 4 year downtrend breakout (2008-2013) much like it did in 2003-2008. The months of Aug-Oct 2008 parallel closely to the current months of April-June 2013. The major difference is that those 3 months in 2008 showed huge gains in the GSR. Other than April 2013, the past 2 months have been much more subdued in their rise. June 2013 monthly candle is an inverted hammer or a gravestone doji...both bearish. It compares well to the October 2008 inverted hammer. Note that rebounds did occur in Nov/Dec 2008 so July/August 2013 may still hold challenges for PM's. In 2008 the dollar rose massively with the GSR (86+) to 88-90. So far we don't have the dollar's cooperation to go above 84.5. The GSR will need that if it wants to bust through 70 and head to 80+ again. Oddly, even with this "mild" rise in GSR, the price damage to gold and silver is on the same order as they did to them in 2008. I think the same fractal that played out in GSR from 2003-2008 is now completing again in 2013. It could already be over with June now closed. But aftershocks in July/August are still possible. But, the heaviest pushing down is probably now down just like in 2008. Monthly gold RSI is now at a very low 33, the lowest seen since the bottom of the 20 year bear in 1997-1999. One concern I have is that a gap was left behind in gold at the $1044 area that may be the eventual pull. It seems gold never did full backtests of its breakouts once it got above $1033 in fall of 2009. It seems that gold has been pulling back at each support level to perform a thorough backtest. The $1044 level would be the last of them as the Oct 2008 dip to $681 properly backtested the April 2006 high of $730. No way to know if $1044 is a target or if backtesting the $1226 Nov 2010 peak was enough. In the short term gold is due for a bounce after a $309/oz drop.
Monthly GSR chart can be found here:
Net-dania link.....java required
(for GSR, select "instruments," then "more instruments" at bottom of the list, select "precious metals NetDania," select "gold to silver ratio," select the monthly chart time scale).
Gold chart 1974-1979 >>
"...saw an 8X increase in gold?" is close to where I see it when the reckoning arrives. My timing was waaaaay off but I still think it gets there. It, the world, will be fugly when it does.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
Yes, I will buy silver, but I will not pay massive premiums. If I cant get it for close to spot then Im not interested. >>
Premiums seem to get pressed on silver often. Shouldn't be hard to pay close to spot,imho
<< <i>appears you finally agree with the long term gold outlook that you have chastized many here for having. >>
Lets not jump the shark. I have said all along that I view PMs as just another asset class. Nothing has changed about that view. However, relative values have changed.
When gold was 1700 and silver 35+, I saw no relative value compared to other assets. I also "felt" extreme bullishness from PM investors. But since, we have seen real estate rise by 20% or more in many areas, the stock market on average is 30% higher and gold is down 40% while silver is down over 50%. Now I see relative value and disillusionment.
I saw a situation where I firmly believed people would lose at least 1/3 of their money and I was vocal about it. I had written a rather blunt response to being chastised, but deleted it. Prices speak for themselves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Bought GLD at 116.07 >>
From the title of this thread, I assumed that you would be "stacking", not buying "Paper called Gold". Though it matters not, I'm somewhat disappointed in your decision, as buying paper chits (w/counterparty risk) kind of defeats the purpose of holding Precious Metals (w/o counterparty risk).
As an FYI, Jim Willie doesn't agree with this approach, either, but he's not as "diplomatic" as me....
"The stupid clueless morons who invest in the GLD fund have to be the dumbest mammals on earth, behind whales and wallabies." >>
Well, I am up $7.50 per share, so maybe not that stupid.
However I did buy some AGE last week and a big bag of scrap jewelry from my local B&M.
I believe I will still be buying physical gold at or around current prices a year from now, unfortunately I cannot sell covered calls against it and generate income like I can with GLD. Stupid me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>appears you finally agree with the long term gold outlook that you have chastized many here for having. >>
Lets not jump the shark. I have said all along that I view PMs as just another asset class. Nothing has changed about that view. However, relative values have changed.
When gold was 1700 and silver 35+, I saw no relative value compared to other assets. I also "felt" extreme bullishness from PM investors. But since, we have seen real estate rise by 20% or more in many areas, the stock market on average is 30% higher and gold is down 40% while silver is down over 50%. Now I see relative value and disillusionment.
I saw a situation where I firmly believed people would lose at least 1/3 of their money and I was vocal about it. I had written a rather blunt response to being chastised, but deleted it. Prices speak for themselves. >>
That's all true. Anyone can search old threads and they have date-stamped comments, then one can graph the relative performance of various posters' stated preferences for asset allocation.
PS: Baley is adding to platinum stacks, at these prices, funded by easing back a little on a few stocks which have maybe gotten ahead of themselves. Also still buying a couple of speculative stocks
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The mud slinging between these two has escalated to a new all time high.
""""" Featured in Sac on July 29th is Coho the Magnificient vs Jimmy the Willie, aka Wonka the Great """"" The Greatest Gold Fight the World will ever have the opportunity to witness.
Tickets go on sale now: The moneyed seats go for $250.00
By the way I'm scalping and I've got 20 front row moneyed seat tickets up for grabs at 190.00- save $60.00 bucks. let me know.....
<< <i>Flash News ***** Jim Willie says Coho is dumber than a Wallaby *****
The mud slinging between these two has escalated to a new all time high.
""""" Featured in Sac on July 29th is Coho the Magnificient vs Jimmy the Willie, aka Wonka the Great """"" The Greatest Gold Fight the World will ever have the opportunity to witness.
Tickets go on sale now: The moneyed seats go for $250.00
By the way I'm scalping and I've got 20 front row moneyed seat tickets up for grabs at 190.00- save $60.00 bucks. let me know..... >>
You are going to scalp tickets for less than face value?
<< <i> You are going to scalp tickets for less than face value?
Since I'm a calyforna neighbor of Coho's, he slipped me some of his private stash tickets at a discounted price and I'm just sharing the goodness.
Shhhhh.... keep this just between the two us.. but if someone actually sends me $160.00 dollars for a ticket, I would not only be scalping them but filleting them also.
<< <i>Scrap jewelry? Take the s off.......not a play I figured in the cohobear book. >>
It is the most efficient way to acquire yellow metal.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Flash News ***** Jim Willie says Coho is dumber than a Wallaby *****
The mud slinging between these two has escalated to a new all time high.
""""" Featured in Sac on July 29th is Coho the Magnificient vs Jimmy the Willie, aka Wonka the Great """"" The Greatest Gold Fight the World will ever have the opportunity to witness.
Tickets go on sale now: The moneyed seats go for $250.00
By the way I'm scalping and I've got 20 front row moneyed seat tickets up for grabs at 190.00- save $60.00 bucks. let me know..... >>
You are going to scalp tickets for less than face value?
You have to remember that numbers is not a very good trader
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You have to remember that numbers is not a very good trader >>
Coho is right for once, I'm not very good, I'm the very Best.
And when the winner of the great Willie Wonka vs Coho the Dumbo match up declares the winner by knockout. I will be there to take on the winner in the ultimate trader clash of a life time.
Numbers of Wonders vs ?
<< <i>Bought GLD at 116.07 >>
Sold at 129.49.
Will repeat this trade in future.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Bought GLD at 116.07 >>
Sold at 129.49.
Will repeat this trade in future. >>
Very nice, I honestly think someone like yourself could do very well like this.
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