Does anyone know of any junior miners that

bluelobster

will survive this brutal bear market they are in?

If so, it could be a trade of a lifetime

Seriously, some of the juniors even with great potential properties are trading at pennies on the dollar in relation to assets. Not all surprising I might add, because of huge costs to bring mines to production in many cases, but if you think metals may offer a value play here, it is nothing compared to the potential 10 baggers that are out there in the Junior miner space. Of course, some of those juniors will not be around in 5 years....if anyone has a working crystal ball please venture a guess as to who will survive.

derryb

I I were to place a bet on juniors it would be GDXJ. I would also wait for a turn in the market.

shorecoll

Barrick just laid off 1/3 of the staff, so maybe not.

I'm not sure if they did it today or announced it today. FYI.

bluelobster

I agree that the GDJX is probably the way to go. the whole space will have issues but the surviving companies in the index will ultimately become a big percentage of the index, which is already starting. Barrick, and Newmont are probably a decent value here as well, especially if they can hold their div, but they are majors and I really hope they don't become juniors, but at this rate you never know


I have looked at THM for example, a very good property in Livengood project, but production is still 5 years away with a cost of @1.5 bil. and now they have a market cap of just over 50 mil. If they survive, it could be a huge gain, but the deck is stacked against them, as it is with many others in the space.

jmski52

I I were to place a bet on juniors it would be GDXJ. I would also wait for a turn in the market.

I do agree with derryb on both counts.

If I didn't think that there's going to be serious issues with just about all types of paper including stock shares, contracts, brokerage house solvency, bonds and currency - I'd think about starting to average into GDXJ with tiny little baby steps.

I just think that at some point we're going to be hammered every which way but loose, so I'm still not quite to the point of buying GDXJ. No sense in losing money gratuitously.

derryb

Keep in mind that most of the big boys started out as juniors.

OPA

<< <i> No sense in losing money gratuitously. >>



Quote of the day. And I would add, that also applies to buying physical.

bluelobster

I tipping my toe in the water on the GDXJ, bought a 1/3 position and will average down or up over the next few quarters.

It's down 80% from the peak at 2008 lows. won't be surprised if it goes lower, but I like the risk reward at this price point.

Unfortunately, my crystal ball isn't not working well enough to pick individual juniors out of the mine field yet.

derryb

If you're gonna play miners, GDXJ is probably the best and safest play. Timing is up to you.

roadrunner

I've read some analysis that expects the the larger intermediates and seniors to lead the initial rally off the bottom. The miners in GDXJ will far outperform the seniors if/when gold
gets to all time highs again. But, in the meantime, juniors are struggling for financing. A high percentage of them will go under. And the seniors are only happy to see them tank or go under where they can buy them for pennies on the dollar. These guys probably want 80-95% discounts from the juniors previous high. Even a good project like THM's Livengood may never get off the ground. There's just no way to know. When companies like Kinross, Barrick, Newmont, and others got smoked by new acquisitions it's made them think real hard about a mine that won't be producing for 5 years....assuming the feasibility studies actually play out as predicted. Kinross lost something like $6 BILL on its $7.5 BILL Red Back acuquisition. And they still don't even have a producing mine yet from that deal.