Buying opportunity to average-down the past 3 years silver purchase prices

Baley

I'm underwater on all the silver bullion (not "collectible" stuff but just metal) purchased since early 2010, looking forward to adding more to my stacks at prices of 21, 18, 15, and hopefully $12 over the next couple of years. Who else will also accellerate buying of "just silver" or will you still focus more on items with collector premium that as a percentage of melt will probably go up as prices continue to go down?

tneig

Do you have insight that those lower prices will appear?
I'm trying to accelerate right-now. Just had a $ flow problem for awhile.

derryb

Metal's failure to react positively to recent dollar index decline indicates further short term metal declines are likely in order. Because I believe long term future is bright for metal I continue to stack silver, mainly because most of it was bought sub $15. I will continue to dable in collector mint products that I believe to have profit potential. I believe we are approaching the cliff with equities and the FED will be forced to pull more money out of the hat - good for metals.

Baley, good question.

DrBuster

I still do my usual allotment, just gets me more. Does help DCA the 2011 pile though. I am working on my rolls of seated and capped halfs now though, so when my local dude is dry on the bullion/90% I'm working on those projects.

Pokermandude

I've already accelerated. I think if we see the teens, it will only be into the $18-19 range, and it won't last long. I may still be catching a bit of a knife, but I think it's a bargain at the current levels (low 20s). Public sentiment is definitely fearful in the silver market, so I've become greedy.

johnperk747

"Buying opportunity to average-down the past 3 years silver purchase prices"

Yes, that is what I'm doing . . . 21 rolls of ASE in the last 4 weeks (to add to my 80 rolls that I got over the last 7 yrs. !!!

Blessings

Yukoncornelius1

I have enough silver but if the price would fall into the teens I would definately pick up some more. I would only purchase lower premium 1 oz. bars and rounds, 5 oz. and 10 oz. lower premium bars and possibly another 25oz. or kilo bar since I like those size bars.

vpr

I've had my eyes on the RCM 100 oz bar. Just waiting for prices to fall into the teens before I pull the trigger.

jdimmick

Buy and sell all the time, I don't keep. Nice having all the profits from it to put in nicer collector coins. I have several friends who are so far underwater its literally scary!!

OnlyGoldIsMoney

I am adding some larger semi-collectible pieces like the 100 oz Engelhard below.

At $2,460 delivered it was around $2 over when I purchased it May 29th or 30th. Hopefully I can add some additional larger Engelhard pieces at close to spot as silver hovers in the $21-$22 range.

vpr

It scares me to see how weak metals have been and how bullish people have been on metals. I'm staying out for a while. I just saw the Canadian Maples monster box at Provident for slightly over $12K. So tempting, but I have got to control myself and wait it out! Maybe, by the end of the year, I will be a proud owner of a monster box of 2013 Maples.

BTW, silver sure looks like it will re-test the $20 low we hit recently on a spike. If we can take that out and stay under, $18 sure sounds very likely. I bet there are a ton of stops under $20.

morgansforever

I'm embarrassed to say I bought a bunch of 90% common commems around $35. On the flip, I still have many rolls of ASE's I paid $175 for and 10 oz. bars I purchased for $140. Lately been buying 1/4 oz. AGE's. I feel I'm in to deep to turn back, been over 10 years of steady stacking. Sometimes I wonder if this is the right path. I'll find out in 20 years, wish I knew for sure though

EDIT: People in my family think it's foolish to be in physical PM's, one being a funds manager at Scottrade. He tells me there's to much risk holding physical, ETF's are the way to go, as you can unload them quicker and there is no physical to worry about, i.e getting robbed, fake bars, selling it etc. Then there are those here, who are pro physical and aren't fans of paper gold n silver. Can someone give me pros and cons of each to think about?

UNLVino

I acquire ounces, got a specific ounce goal I want in AU and AG when I retire. I also like to get some numismatic stuff from time to time. Plus I often buy stuff I think is just plain cool - case in point Freedom Girl. But to answer OP original question - I have a set disposable income I buy metals with each month, so as prices drop, I cam get more. Although admittedly I have gone overboard on a couple purchases recently

jmski52

I'm buying mostly Mint collectables at the moment like the Proof AGEs, Proof Gold Buffs, Burnished AGEs................still wading through some home maintenance and sundry non-coin items, so I'm knocking them out as the budget allows.

I still adhere to about a 50/50 blend of straight bullion vs. collectable bullion, with an actual classic Large Cent thrown into the mix from time to time.

derryb

Silver Cycles: What Next?

OperationButter

<< <i>Silver Cycles: What Next? >>



Problems I see with this...
1. Prices are assumed to rise more slowly than they fall, so 62% of the cycle is related to the rising portion of the cycle, and 38% of the cycle is related to the falling portion of the cycle.
2. This is not a prediction, it is simply a projection based on the entirely reasonable, but possibly incorrect, assumption that silver prices will continue to rise, about 20% per year on average,

#2 is very agressive, esp when you see that #1 is allocating 62% of the data to rising prices

Overall, I think he has the right thinking, but fails to execute to model correctly.

Thanks for posting this, it is interesting to see how others build their models (assumptions etc).

mariner67

"assumption that silver prices will continue to rise, about 20% per year on average"

Wow, I do not see that as a possibility at all.
Wishfull thinking at best!
Going forward single digit returns may be a challange.
JMHO as always.

Pokermandude

<< <i>"assumption that silver prices will continue to rise, about 20% per year on average" >>



Yeah, that seems too high as well. Although if he's not using data from the ~0% return decade (1990s) and only looking at the current bull market, maybe 20% isn't an unreasonable number.

derryb

20% per year on average is not unrealistic given the fundamentals have not changed. It only seems unrealistic because of price drops the last two years, but even those are figured into the 20%.

Three

Found this recently;
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-silver-news?oid=192989&sn=Detail

"If these guys [silver ETF holders] start selling like they did with gold we could see substantial downside pressure on silver and, over the past couple of years, we have seen that silver does ultimately tend to follow the same path as gold so we do think that is a substantial risk," de Wet says

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/silver-prices-lowest-since-2010-as-gold-keeps-dropping/
http://moneymorning.com/2013/05/20/why-silver-prices-fell-today-then-recovered-in-wild-trading/

Along with ETF/ETP's possibly being dumped & Solar panels on the decline & the Yen seemingly getting stronger, it looks like it is a good recipe for lower prices.

cohodk

Welcome Three.

mariner67

<< <i>Welcome Three. >>



Yes indeed, welcome aboard!

Three

Hey, Thanks guys

OPA

Speculators are the "Market Makers," and as long if there is a perception of better yields than Gold or Silver, those 2 will continue to be under a selling pressure. Plat, Pallad. & Rhodium, dance to a different drummer. More of a select market and industrial use driven.

jmski52

"If these guys [silver ETF holders] start selling like they did with gold we could see substantial downside pressure on silver and, over the past couple of years, we have seen that silver does ultimately tend to follow the same path as gold so we do think that is a substantial risk," de Wet says

Welcome 3!

My understanding is that the banks are reducing their short positions. This has significant price implications to the upside.

Another consideration is that when some of these ETF holders sell, they may be wanting to take delivery of physical metal - but their is no mechanism for a direct exchange into metal - and the Comex will try to discourage taking delivery in any event.

There's alot goin' on.

derryb

<< <i>Another consideration is that when some of these ETF holders sell, they may be wanting to take delivery of physical metal - but their is no mechanism for a direct exchange into metal - and the Comex will try to discourage taking delivery in any event. >>


Maybe they're selling the paper ETFs and using the funds to buy physical. Counterparty risk of paper may be now better understood.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

June is proving to be a serious buying month for me. Another 100 oz poured Engelhard is on the way.

derryb

<< <i>Speculators are the "Market Makers," and as long if there is a perception of better yields than Gold or Silver, those 2 will continue to be under a selling pressure. Plat, Pallad. & Rhodium, dance to a different drummer. More of a select market and industrial use driven. >>


I believe the market makers are the large banks' bullion traders who seem to know in advance or who directly control the next price direction. I suspect speculators are just along for the coat ride, hoping to guess correctly.

mariner67

"I believe the market makers are the large banks' bullion traders who seem to know in advance or who directly control the next price direction. I suspect speculators are just along for the coat ride, hoping to guess correctly. "

Agreed.
Movements both up and down can be very fast often leaving Joe Six Pack whiplashed at the tail end of such moves.
JMHO as usual.