Thinking of selling close to 50 MS63 & MS64 PCGS/NGC Saints and moving on

braddick · May 31, 2013 6:09AM

Back in late 2009 I purchased 50 NGC and PCGS slabbed common date Saints in MS63 and MS64. Not that it matters, but there are a few Liberties in the mix.
What with the market up and down and sideways I'm thinking of simply selling them all to Heritage at Long Beach and moving on.

What is the consensus of the forum? Will this end up being a regrettable decision, in your opinion?
I know none of us have a crystal ball, but I've always appreciated and taken to heart the opinions expressed here.

Pokermandude · May 31, 2013 6:20AM

First world problems ITT!

PerryHall · May 31, 2013 6:25AM

I would hold onto them unless you need the money for a more profitable endeavor.

VanHalen · May 31, 2013 6:30AM

<< I would hold onto them unless you need the money for a more profitable endeavor. >>

I agree with PerryHall. It also depends on what you have in them and what you want to do with the proceeds.

USMoneylover · May 31, 2013 7:22AM

<< I would hold onto them unless you need the money for a more profitable endeavor. >>

Good advice IMO.
Edit to add: I would add in, unless you need the money in the next year +/- (outside of emergencies)

Timbuk3 · May 31, 2013 7:29AM

I'd keep them, unless you need the money.
I'm sure you purchased them for the long
term !!!

derryb · May 31, 2013 7:30AM

I think it was a good investment (timing wasn't ideal), why turn it into a bad one? Hold them.

Baley · May 31, 2013 7:34AM

I think your results so far, in order to be evaluated, have to be compared to what you (reasonably likely) would have done with the capital instead

Likewise, what you should do next might depend on your planned alternative use of the capital

mrpaseo · May 31, 2013 7:37AM

<< Back in late 2009 I purchased 50 NGC and PCGS slabbed common date Saints in MS63 and MS64. Not that it matters, but there are a few Liberties in the mix.
What with the market up and down and sideways I'm thinking of simply selling them all to Heritage at Long Beach and moving on.

What is the consensus of the forum? Will this end up being a regrettable decision, in your opinion?
I know none of us have a crystal ball, but I've always appreciated and taken to heart the opinions expressed here. >>

I know little about the series other than I would love to own 50 Saints

That said, I'm with the consensuses, hold them unless you need the money or have good investment venue. I believe 63/64s are valued at or just above spot save for a few right (I'm thinking this because you are posting on a PM forum rather than the coin forum).

I like to think that the future can be told through the normal ups and downs of the market and the "Cycles" that we have been through throughout the years... but this time I think things are different, not sure we have been in a situation like this and frankly, I don't know what the future holds. That said, if it were me, I would sit on them for a bit longer (A year or two at a minimum) to see where we are going. Sadly, it looks as though holding a position in physical PMs in the future is a good idea.

The only way I would sell would be to transfer some to Silver (Nothing wrong with diversification

)

Best
Ray

mrpaseo · May 31, 2013 7:49AM

BTW I have only one St G which to me is priceless and will not be sold unless my family is in significant financial distress, that said, there are plenty of other things that would be sold first.

braddick · May 31, 2013 8:07AM

Thanks guys.
Back when purchased gold was $950. and ounce. The downside, there was a heavy premium for graded gold. I think somewhere along the lines of $200. or more.

No real idea what to invest the funds in now, other than a friend who does investments for a living (30+ years in his field) who would sit down with us and offer suggestions.

My wife's been bugging me a bit lately and I told her when gold once again reached $1600. I'd consider it.
Just don't know if that will really take place in the next couple of years or not.

TwoSides2aCoin · May 31, 2013 9:00AM

Divesting isn't investing when it's collecting. I think when it (gold) hit $1900 was the time to sell, but not $1400. Sounds like a healthy collection to me and unless the little lady wants you to cash out for something more important, my opinion is they are safe where they are, for now.

Humbly submitted.

WhiteTornado · May 31, 2013 9:05AM

Perhaps you could appease the spouse and sell 25, allowing your investor friend to offer suggestions on alternative routes for the proceeds.

roadrunner · May 31, 2013 9:57AM

Only assessing this from market conditions, I would not want to be a seller of 63/64 Saints at current prices knowing that about a half a dozen key indicators for gold
are pointing at a probable bottom having been put in last month at $1322. While nothing is ever guaranteed, gold has put in a 20 month correction very similar to 1975-1976 in
both time and price. The current correction has basically been a pair of 8-9 month steep corrections separated by a 3 month bounce. I compare this to putting a pair of 2008
March-October corrections back to back (each 7-9 months long). The 2008 correction was 19 months long but in a flat configuration. It's also been quite apparent that shares
in gold miners have been accumulated the past 6 weeks in record volume (look at GDX and NUGT). Someone likes the prices down here. Miners don't tend to get accumulated
in size as gold is about to tank further. The major market forces working against the PM sector has been money flying into stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Commodities, the yen,
cando, aussie, pound have all been beatup the past 20-24 months. When the stock market stops rising like it has been, that money has to flow to something that has been out of favor
for a long time. Hmmmm.

Premiums are still decent for choice unc Saints bringing around 24-29% over spot....or around a $300-$350 per coin premium.

UNLVino · May 31, 2013 10:15AM

Offer on BST, you can always ask what you want. See what happens.

HearingDr · May 31, 2013 10:20AM

How about selling 5 per month for the next five months. Slim your position and then re evaluate a few months down the line. Dollar cost a erage out. If gold is down. You eased the pain. If gold is up. You still have a pretty stack.

Eric

golden · May 31, 2013 11:40AM

Hold on to them.

braddick · May 31, 2013 12:05PM

All sage advice, and I appreciate the overall tenure of the voices here.
We have raw gold also, and if anything is to be sold, I'd think that stash should go first.

I like the idea of holding and/or holding the majority and selling a bit at a time.
Thanks guys!

Bochiman · May 31, 2013 1:40PM

Pat,

You're a smart guy. You will do what is right for you.
For me, I would likely divest myself of a few at a time. Not all at once. Maybe 2-3 a month for a few months, if I had somewhere I wanted to put the money.

secondrepublic · May 31, 2013 9:03PM

I second the suggestion that if you want to sell some off, do several a month, not all at once. And the BST will net you more than Heritage.

jdimmick · May 31, 2013 9:57PM

I am going against the crowd, sell em , while your still making a good profit. Doesn't hurt to have cash on hand. Why wait till gold is 1200 in a few months.

PerryHall · May 31, 2013 10:08PM

<< I am going against the crowd, sell em , while your still making a good profit. Doesn't hurt to have cash on hand. Why wait till gold is 1200 in a few months. >>

This only makes sense if you believe there will be a big drop in gold prices under the current economic climate.

slinc · May 31, 2013 11:27PM

A nice problem to have, Personally I think it would be wise to take some of the profit you have made maybe sell a third to a half (how about the ones in the NGC holders)

jmski52 · June 1, 2013 12:10AM

My question would be, "how does that fit into your overall investment picture?"

That question, in addition to the other one that's been asked, "what is your alternative plan for the money?"

I'm sure that the Fed and NYSE would both be happy to have you participate in the stock market's unprecedented affirmation of their ongoing economic recovery.

Seriously though, I would really be surprised if anyone really knows what's going to happen in 1, 3 or 5 years.

roadrunner · June 1, 2013 12:36AM

In 3 to 5 years you'd probably be glad you kept them. In the next 12 months, who can tell? Gold and silver were pushed off the cliff at $1525/$26. They've really made
no decent attempt at a retest of that cliff dive which surprises me a bit.

jdimmick · June 1, 2013 5:11AM

I truly believe the run is over by years end

OperationButter · June 1, 2013 8:02AM

<< I truly believe the run is over by years end >>

With the factors that have caused the run up still present, I will have to disagree.

Short term volatility is the name of the game, long term the outlook is still solid. The huge price decline in April, which I still think was heavily based on institutional momentum players (using leverage to buy GLD) having to unwind their positions rapidly, characterizes the bottom of a bear market, and has essentially shifted gold from weak hands to strong hands (I believe this is good for gold in the long term). The PM market was technically weak (pretty much spot on with what Cohodk has been saying) and having large institutions liquidating in mass generated a nearly 8 standard deviation price movement. Smart math guys have stated the probability of an 8 standard deviation from occurring is roughly 1 in a billion. Also there was some discussion on a sale of 400 tonnes that hit the market during this sell off. Not sure who in the h*ll would choose that time to sell the ENTIRE position unless they were really wanting to achieve the worst possible price for their exit. To me, as an outsider, that seems very odd.

I still think there is a long way to go for PMs. Short term, there might be better places to "make" money, but long term there is no better place to "preserve" wealth. Just IMO.

Justacommeman · June 1, 2013 10:50AM

Keep what you want as financial insurance and sell the rest. MJ

Bayard1908 · June 1, 2013 11:31AM

I'd be interested in a $20 Lib. I just sold my proof example and don't have another.

1jester · June 1, 2013 6:44PM

I'm of the firm opinion that just because the paper market has been "up and down and sideways", does not make it a wise decision to dump your carefully chosen insurance stack at this time. If you need the money for something else more important, then why not sell a bit. But I wouldn't sell for the reason you stated (paper market prices). I think if you did, you would seriously regret it in a few years. Thanks for valuing my opinion.

PerryHall · June 1, 2013 8:53PM

<< My wife's been bugging me a bit lately and I told her when gold once again reached $1600. I'd consider it. >>

Be careful. It sounds like your wife has plans for this money. I see remodeling, new furniture, etc in your future.

DoubleEagle59 · June 1, 2013 8:58PM

<< In 3 to 5 years you'd probably be glad you kept them. In the next 12 months, who can tell? Gold and silver were pushed off the cliff at $1525/$26. They've really made
no decent attempt at a retest of that cliff dive which surprises me a bit. >>

My thoughts exactly.

If you need the money short term, then perhaps sell.

If you're not in urgent need for the funds, then definitely hold on to them.

renman95 · June 1, 2013 10:14PM

Do you have any that fit this scenario?

guitarwes · June 1, 2013 11:44PM

I'm with the "hold'em" crowd. If you don't "need" the money, I mean REALLY NEED it, I think you'll be glad you held them. It's not like you're holding 1 or 2, the profits made will be multiplied by 50!

Be sure to consider the tax liability. You may not need to sell a bunch of them at once or in the same fiscal/calendar year. It may benifit you to hold out. From the outside looking in, it seems that someone with this type of stash can afford to play it to your advantage with no immediate decisions having to be made.