Gold price viewed as yearly averages

derryb

Chart from a great discussion on monetary metal

12 consecutive good years for gold, will 2013 break the trend?:

ricko

Too early to tell..... so many things bear upon the gold market.... and still eight months to go.... Average at the end of June will will be an indicator. Cheers, RickO

cohodk

will 2013 break the trend?:

Absolutely.

derryb

<< <i>will 2013 break the trend?:

Absolutely. >>


Are you sure? Each of the past two bad years that you like to point out actually turned in a better yearly average then their previous year. I admit, it will be interesting to see unfold.

jdimmick

Not only will it break to the down side this time, but in my opinion , it will come in lower than 2011 by just a tiny bit.

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>will 2013 break the trend?:

Absolutely. >>


Are you sure? Each of the past two bad years that you like to point out actually turned in a better yearly average then their previous year. I admit, it will be interesting to see unfold. >>



Yes I'm sure. But yearly average is kind of a meaningless stat. Suppose gold is 1800 from Han 1 to Dec 30 then drips to 1200 on the 31st. The yearly average would still be 1798 but everyone would gave list 1/3 of their savings.

derryb

Probably a reason why its called an average.

Baley

Statistics: Torturing a set of numbers until it eventually confesses what you want to hear

derryb

<< <i>Statistics: Torturing a set of numbers until it eventually confesses what you want to hear >>


And I thought you were a chartaholic.

Baley

<< <i>And I thought you were a chartaholic. >>



wrong again...

I'm a "chartophile".

The (mis) use of the suffix "-aholic" for people that like things is almost as insufferable as the use of the suffix "-gate" for any kind of purported conspiracy. They both tend to make the user seem a lot less intelligent and/or well-informed than they probably are.

Baley

But speaking of that chart, I count 11 (not 12) consecutive annual increases in the average price of gold.

You'd need the 2000 number to be lower than 273 for it to be 12.

That chart also, (coincidentally) chooses the most advantagous period to (try) to make a case that gold "always" goes up.
Question: Is past performance, or is it not, indicative of future results? Follow up: How come it doesn't go back 35 or 40 years??

And yes, I do expect 2013 will break the trend. That chart is, IMO, a very good argument for the *probability* of the trend to reverse, and more likely sooner rather than later. This is called "regression toward the mean"

And I love gold, just being honest, and objective. That was a good article BTW

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>And I thought you were a chartaholic. >>



wrong again...

I'm a "chartophile".

The (mis) use of the suffix "-aholic" for people that like things is almost as insufferable as the use of the suffix "-gate" for any kind of purported conspiracy. They both tend to make the user seem a lot less intelligent and/or well-informed than they probably are. >>


I'll take that as a compliment, thanks.

Baley

exactly as it was intended

Now, how about that 35- year chart?

derryb

<< <i>exactly as it was intended

Now, how about that 35- year chart? >>


contrary to popular belief I don't make 'em I just come across them in research and share 'em.

Timbuk3

I'm pessimistically optimistic !!!

Baley

Year Average Price

1833-49 18.93
1850 18.93
1851 18.93
1852 18.93
1853 18.93
1854 18.93
1855 18.93
1856 18.93
1857 18.93
1858 18.93
1859 18.93
1860 18.93
1861 18.93
1862 18.93
1863 18.93
1864 18.93
1865 18.93
1866 18.93
1867 18.93
1868 18.93
1869 18.93
1870 18.93
1871 18.93
1872 18.94
1873 18.94
1874 18.94
1875 18.94
1876 18.94
1877 18.94
1878 18.94
1879 18.94
1880 18.94
1881 18.94
1882 18.94
1883 18.94
1884 18.94
1885 18.94
1886 18.94
1887 18.94
1888 18.94
1889 18.93
1890 18.94
1891 18.96
1892 18.96
1893 18.96
1894 18.94
1895 18.93
1896 18.98
1897 18.98
1898 18.98
1899 18.94
1900 18.96
1901 18.98
1902 18.97
1903 18.95
1904 18.96
1905 18.92
1906 18.90
1907 18.94
1908 18.95
1909 18.96
1910 18.92
1911 18.92
1912 18.93
1913 18.92
1914 18.99
1915 18.99
1916 18.99
1917 18.99
1918 18.99
1919 19.95
1920 20.68
1921 20.58
1922 20.66
1923 21.32
1924 20.69
1925 20.64
1926 20.63
1927 20.64
1928 20.66
1929 20.63
1930 20.65
1931 17.06
1932 20.69
1933 26.33
1934 34.69
1935 34.84
1936 34.87
1937 34.79
1938 34.85
1939 34.42
1940 33.85
1941 33.85
1942 33.85
1943 33.85
1944 33.85
1945 34.71
1946 34.71
1947 34.71
1948 34.71
1949 31.69
1950 34.72
1951 34.72
1952 34.60
1953 34.84
1954 35.04
1955 35.03
1956 34.99
1957 34.95
1958 35.10
1959 35.10
1960 35.27
1961 35.25
1962 35.23
1963 35.09
1964 35.10
1965 35.12
1966 35.13
1967 34.95
1968 39.31
1969 41.28
1970 36.02
1971 40.62
1972 58.42
1973 97.39
1974 154.00
1975 160.86
1976 124.74
1977 147.84
1978 193.40
1979 306.00
1980 615.00
1981 460.00
1982 376.00
1983 424.00
1984 361.00
1985 317.00
1986 368.00
1987 447.00
1988 437.00
1989 381.00
1990 383.51
1991 362.11
1992 343.82
1993 359.77
1994 384.00
1995 383.79
1996 387.81
1997 331.02
1998 294.24
1999 278.98
2000 279.11
2001 271.04
2002 309.73
2003 363.38
2004 409.72
2005 444.74
2006 603.46
2007 695.39
2008 871.96
2009 972.35
2010 1,224.53
2011 1,571.52

Prices from 1883-1994, World Gold Council. Taken from Timothy Green's Historical Gold Price Table , London prices converted to U.S. Dollars
Prices from 1995-2008, Kitco.com, based on the London PM fix.