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The Deflation Tracking Thread
jmski52
Posts: 22,370 ✭✭✭✭✭
Post here if you observe any evidence of deflation, other than the metals prices.
I was at a gun show yesterday, and it appears that AR-15s are now available, but the prices were still at elevated levels. The ammo shortage is especially prominent in 9mm and .22 LR and they want triple the normal cost of a 500 brick of .22LR!!!!
I was at a gun show yesterday, and it appears that AR-15s are now available, but the prices were still at elevated levels. The ammo shortage is especially prominent in 9mm and .22 LR and they want triple the normal cost of a 500 brick of .22LR!!!!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
0
Comments
There is a gun show next weekend here I had in mind to bring some gold with me so much for that idea
For a little while I've been looking for an old M-1 carbine like the one I learned to shoot with when I was a boy , I thought I'd see what they were going for and if I could trade some gold for one.
Grain prices have been hammered the last few months.
Prices
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
While futures prices in grains may be lower, all I've seen for the past few months are rising prices at Stop and Shop, especially for healthy and/or organic selections.
Maybe I need to shift back to an all junk food diet again to take advantage of falling quasi-food prices. My wife mentioned once again that box and package sizes continue
to shrink. At my local health food store they've raised prices across the board in 2013, especially in the grains/granolas/seeds/nuts/etc. 56 oz. peanut prices at BJ's are up around
30% over the past 1-2 yrs. 3 lb bags of almonds and walnuts also up a bit. Non-farmed Norwegian salmon up $2/lb at my local fish shop over the past year. Can't think of a single
healthy food I buy routinely that is lower in price from last year. Vitamins are up around 5-10% the past year as well. But, Burger King's $1.29 junior whopper is definitely
deflationary. Had me a couple of those a week or so ago. I guess if you're trying to kill yourself then the food industry will try to help with you lowered costs. For those trying to
do the opposite and live longer and healthier, it only gets more expensive. There's a message here somewhere.
I expect my health care premium to jump another 10% for the 5th straight year. Who would have thought that as you pay off your mortgage that HC premiums would replace it?
So with the price of grains, sugar, cocoa, etc. pretty much down over the past 1-2 years, are supermarket cereal, candy, cookie, soda prices any lower? And if they are lower, have
smaller package sizes compensated for that drop?
<< <i>Starbucks lowered ground coffee prices by 12%. Grain prices have been hammered the last few months. Prices >>
Gas Prices the same, so is price of Meat, OJ and Eggs, yet today I can use 250 less pieces of Paper to buy an ounce of Gold than I could a month ago...the paper created out of thin air...by the ' To-Big-To-Jail' Harvard-Columbia-Yale-Penn Banksters
that's why I stack 'em. Ever have an emu egg or an emu burger? Try one and you'll become an emu stacker too
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Natural gas has been in a severe deflation.
How about your savings account? Any see even 1% on a bank money market fund?
Rates are lower than they were 4 years ago at the peak of the crisis.
House prices? Mostly down 30% or more from 2006.
Airline fares have been in a deflation for years and may just be coming out.
Silver? Less than half its 2011 peak.
Labor? I see more contracts negotiated with lower wages and benefit give ups
than increases.
<< <i>further to RR's point, if you want to buy healthy/organic foods -- basically the same things our grandparents ate before food became mass-industry -- you'll pay almost $5 for a dozen organic eggs and close to $7 for a gallon of organic milk. haven't seen any price deflation in foods except -- interestingly -- ice-cream. Breyer's actually costs less than it used to, even if you account for the shrinking package size. of course, it's no longer "all natural" since Unilever bought it and started expanding the list of ingredients from 6-7 to 20+.
I agree with both of you about the prices of organic foods, but in the long run they are still cheaper if you factor in the cost of open heart surgery, blood pressure meds,obesity, strokes, Oh well you get the point.
Tires have about doubled in the last 4-5 years.
A little Toyota pickup is 40k+. Well located R1 in Cal is back to 2007
levels. Junk RE is only selling because of 3.5% money.
For practical purposes there is no deflation.
There is a liquidity problem. And it is going to get worse.
<< <i>Things that you NEED to purchase have dramatically increased.
Tires have about doubled in the last 4-5 years.
A little Toyota pickup is 40k+. Well located R1 in Cal is back to 2007
levels. Junk RE is only selling because of 3.5% money.
For practical purposes there is no deflation.
There is a liquidity problem. And it is going to get worse. >>
Oh come on now, listen to a few people here and trust in the fed and all will be well in fairyland!
You forgot the /sarc/
As to the prices of electronics, evolution typically causes prices to drop over time. Parts become cheaper as volume decreases the cost of individual components. Look at flat screen TVs in the 42 and 50 inch range. Interestingly, a quality TV in 1962 cost about the same as a 42 inch HD flat screen does today. Automobiles are interesting in that while prices have risen, so has what you get in the car. Being old, I remember when you had to buy an AM radio. Now cars all come equipped with A/C, power locks, brakes, ABS...etc. standard. All of that "standard" technology creates a higher initial cost, yet there are few real needs that are options as opposed to when everything was an option. For those who follow such things, it took two data plates on some cars in 1970 to identify all the "extras" purchased.
He buys so many tires, the price difference matters, maybe because tire cost is one of his expenses in his (presumably successful) business. Most people buy tires every 2 or 4 years, and kind of wince and pay it. He also buys brand new truck(s) instead of a decent used one, and knows all about good (coastal, master planned, etc) and and junk (desert, slum, etc) California real estate, possibly because he owns and buys and sells it among his other enterprises. He's right. Nice properties in good areas sell fast with multiple offers, and their neighbors get flyers saying "if you want to sell, we have pre-qualified and all-cash offers" and of course we all know there's no deflation in high end art, coins, wine, etc. and also organic and super premium foods and drinks, sky's the limit and there's incredible inflation for the very very best stuff
So it's no surprise that premium "stuff" is going up in price, it's a supply and demand function, if people will buy it regardless of the price difference ("health" food, name brand and designer garments and jewelry, exclusive hotels and restaurants, etc) then there's no need to compete on price, and it goes up fast
However! at the low end, primarily in the used and distressed levels of things like rent, cars, furniture, clothes, yes food and wine and tires, there seems to be deflation, as this stuff is so common that it can be had for at least flat levels (as in "you can get by"), even deflation where something perfectly good is practically free, just because someone wants to get rid of it, like a crisis of excess, or coupons and "deals" just about give it away
Most of us live somewhere inbetween, and what's noticed is moderate inflation in medium-level goods and especially service fees, meaning someone else's time to do something for you.
The more skilled or specialized the labor, or the more elaborate the equipment required for a job, the more the work commands, and again, at the very high end, the sky is the limit, some folks get literally thousands of dollars a minute for their work (sports and entertainment come to mind, but also some businesspeople) and the rate of payment for high end service is going up
BUT at the low end, you can still get burger flipped, hair cut, shelves stocked, as well as housecleaning, yardwork, painting, light construction, hauling, ect, for a few dollars an hour, maybe up to 15 or 20, and that isn't changing very fast, maybe others have different stories about the costs of things but out looking around, stuff like a hammer or a hamburger costs just about the same as it always has, five bucks.
a twenty earned in an hour will still buy a basic hot meal for two and the gas to get you there and back.
(have intentionally left out the tax implications of all this, obviously, all above-the-table transactions tax you coming and going and that's going up too)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I suspect the slowdown in money velocity combined with slowed inflation since 2008 is being misinterpreted as deflation.
Saw an interesting quote today in an attack on Keynesian economics by John Rubino: "So what's the solution? The Austrians say there's only one: liquidate the bad debt, either through a deflationary crash now or a hyperinflation followed by a deflationary crash later."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Streeters Toyota was 25 oz of gold, now 28.5 oz.
Roadrunners junior whopper was 0.043 oz of silver, now 0.054 oz.
Secondrepublics gallon of milk was about a 1/4 oz of silver, now pushing towards 1/3 oz.
Derryb used to be able to trade and ASE for a gallon of paint, no more.
Yup, I get it now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>further to RR's point, if you want to buy healthy/organic foods -- basically the same things our grandparents ate before food became mass-industry -- you'll pay almost $5 for a dozen organic eggs and close to $7 for a gallon of organic milk. haven't seen any price deflation in foods except -- interestingly -- ice-cream. Breyer's actually costs less than it used to, even if you account for the shrinking package size. of course, it's no longer "all natural" since Unilever bought it and started expanding the list of ingredients from 6-7 to 20+.
I think they're all putting seaweed in icecreme now. My stomach is a little sensitive to it
so I can't eat it. They just keep adulterating the food. They also keep putting most things
at sale prices so that they could practically double cost of living without raising prices at all
just by ending the sales.
The list of products that are almost inedible just keeps growing. Ketchup is crap that sep-
arates, mustard rots and separates, fish is really just water and sodium tripolyphosphate.
Now the bread is being affected by something; maybe a few are adding sawdust. Some
of it can't be frozen any longer.
<< <i>glad you finally realized gold is money. >>
everything is money, including emus.
some things are better at being money than others.
gold makes better money than emus, but is not as good as being money as federal reserve notes
personally, I'm stacking emus until the Dow:Emu ratio is 1:1 like it once was. Can't argue with the emu fundamentals
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I buy 2-3 year old trucks that seem to always need 4 tires-$800. Ouch.
I wouldn't be caught dead in a master planned community. Appreciate Baley thinking
I could afford coastal property but everything is a million up and
My pockets are not ca-chinging right now.
I make my own ice cream and eat my own veggies from the garden.
I mow my own lawn and do my own lube, filter and oil.
All my gold and silver was lost in a boating accident per ZH.
<< <i>gold makes better money than emus, but is not as good as being money as federal reserve notes >>
Germans said the same thing about the papiermark until 1924, with Hungary it was the pengo until 1946, with Argentine it was the peso until 1992, the Yugoslav dinar 2003, the Greek drachma 1944, the Zimbabwe dollar 2009, Peruvian sol 1985, Chilean escudo 1975 and the list goes on. Always the result of debasing the currency, usually by adding a zero here and there and then some more zeros. Increasing the amount of the currency (a little QE here, some more there) is really not much different than adding zeros. QE is not only a subtle way of adding zeros to the currency - it also provides the ability to determine who gets the extra zeros.
But wait, this time it's not different.
Guess what's still around after centuries of being money. And it's simply because you can't create it from thin air or add zeros to it. I would argue that gold is better than FRNs, and any other mismanaged currency, just as it proved to be better than papiermarks, pengos, pesos, dinars, drachmas, Zimbabwe dollars, sols, and escudos.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The list of products that are almost inedible just keeps growing.
I shop a lot at the Sams/costco. i used to buy a lot of pre-made items, as in frozen marinated fish, pre-cut ckn mixed meals, etc etc.
Over the last few yrs, I'm well aware of the high inflation since I do the food shopping / cooking now. It used to be mostly price increases, then shrinkage. However, the last yr or so it's been quality. I refuse to buy anymore prepared frozen foods. They're using fish of the lowest quality and covering the rauncid stuff with sauce. The chicken now is breaded so thick that it's as bad as Mc D;s glued together ckn sponges. I'm doing a lot more cooking from scratch than I want to, just can't stand the garbage anymore.
I'll tell you where inflation has hurt me the most. Real Estate Taxes. Some examples, on SFR rental property in 2000 that might have cost me 800 / yr is now around 1800-2100. A couple acres commercial vacant land I own that was perhaps 800 / yr is now around 4500 / yr. A commercial rental that was perhaps 1600/yr is now costing me nearly 8000. Not only have I lost a chunk of equity to the housing downturn, but I'm paying the govermental expenses of all the renters and others that don't own real estate. It's the part of wealth transfer that effects me the most. The market won't bear rental increases to pay for the increased expenses. EOR, end of Rant
<< <i>
<< <i>gold makes better money than emus, but is not as good as being money as federal reserve notes >>
Germans said the same thing about the papiermark until 1924, with Hungary it was the pengo until 1946, with Argentine it was the peso until 1992, the Yugoslav dinar 2003, the Greek drachma 1944, the Zimbabwe dollar 2009, Peruvian sol 1985, Chilean escudo 1975 and the list goes on. Always the result of debasing the currency, usually by adding a zero here and there and then some more zeros. Increasing the amount of the currency (a little QE here, some more there) is really not much different than adding zeros. QE is not only a subtle way of adding zeros to the currency - it also provides the ability to determine who gets the extra zeros.
But wait, this time it's not different.
Guess what's still around after centuries of being money. And it's simply because you can't create it from thin air or add zeros to it. I would argue that gold is better than FRNs, and any other mismanaged currency, just as it proved to be better than papiermarks, pengos, pesos, dinars, drachmas, Zimbabwe dollars, sols, and escudos. >>
Nice list of little, unstable countries that have "added zeros" in currency debasement. Surely you are not comparing the 21st century United States of America with banana republics and one-hit historical wonders?
How come there's no Great Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, or Switzerland on the list of zero-adders? Inflation occurs at lower and more gradual levels, of course it does.
But IMO, those expecting (hoping for?) a huge currency debasement in dollars with re-issuance with more zeros will end up going to their graves without seeing it. As will their children
When I say "better", I mean immediate liquidity. EVERYONE takes cash, but gold or any other commodity you have to "cash in" to spend (gold is the most liquid "thing", I do agree and have said so, and yes, I know that you know someone who "takes gold" in payment, we all do, but they are the rare exception)
Now if by gold being "better" than cash at preserving purchasing power vs a dollar or other currency, of course it depends on the time frame the gold is owned.
The past 2 years have not been a good time frame for merely preserving (never mind growing) wealth in gold. The previous 8 years were excellent!
Going forward, gold will probably trade in a range, maybe 1250 to 1550. Prices of other things will fluctuate with supply and demand, too.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My town re-assessed everyone and my taxes went down 10%. I'm paying what I was paying 5 years ago in property taxes. My taxes for next year are going up less than 2% (NJ has a 2% cap).
My cars have more miles on them then cars I bought 15 years ago and they still run great.
I switched our families health coverage from a traditional PPO to a high deductible PPO with an MSA. We are saving thousands and putting the difference into the MSA which I can draw down at my leisure in future years.
Every time I fill the gas tank it seems the price of gas is down a few pennies from the last time. It should be going up at this time of the year.
My ARM mortgage just re-adjusted to 2 7/8% for the next year. I keep telling myself to refi to a fixed but at this rate, I'll be paid off in 4 years so why go through the hassle and expense?
I don't know, I guess I'm not seeing much inflation. Food is up, income taxes are up with the new FICA rates, college tuition is up, but the big stuff (heat, mortgage, car, health) are all down.
Gasoline continues to fluctuate, but $60.00 or more for a fill-up is still a shock to me.
My hotel stays and out of town business trips are always increasing.
Postage and shipping costs continue to increase. I think USPS rates are the clearest indicator of actual costs in our economy.
My income continues to fluctuate.
My taxes have not gone down.
I can't document many instances of deflation, but I'm still looking....
I knew it would happen.
I think perhaps you're not checking the actual taxes.
Since 2007, many counties have lowered their tax assesments to follow the declining real estate values. That isn't what determines your tax rate though. The local gov's and institutions determine a budget for the year. That budget gets paid out of RE taxes regarless of assessed values. Ignore your assessed value and look at what was actually paid out of your mtge escrow acct.
Example
2007 budget 10,000,000 Total assessed values 1,000,000,000 ......... Each property would be taxed $10 per every 1k in assessed value, making a 100,000 home liable for $1000 in tax.
2012 budget 13,000,000 Assessor "re-assessed" everyones value down 10% to 900,000,000 combined assessed value. of Each property would be taxed at 14.44 per thousand, making each home liable for $1444.00
dbcoin
Please PM me your County in NJ State. I am not aware of any county gov reducing their budgets over the last 5 yrs. I'd like to research it and provide some real numbers. If it's accurate, I'm selling everything and moving ta Joorsy
My assessed value went up, but my taxes paid went down. I was paying a little over $11k and it went down to just under $10K. Went up about $200 this year.
NJ does indeed have a 2% tax cap. School taxes can't go up more than 2% except under special circumstances, county and local as well. As long as school taxes are under the 2% cap, no vote need be held any more either which is fine by me as that saves money as well.
There were some businesses in town that probably weren't paying their fair share and during the revaluation got dinged higher.
But cheaper for whom? It's probably cheaper for the consumer to eat cheap processed foods, and let their company/govt paid insurance premiums pay for their ill-health. If there
were some incentives to do otherwise, people would be more likely to take better care of themselves. Big pharma and the processed/fast food industries like the status quo. If one
is paying 100% or a significant portion of their health care premiums, you bet they realize that organic and unprocessed foods should be on their list. Their's no deflation in health care
costs or the negative health effects of processed foods. Like the national debt, those 2 only keep rising.
Shifting health care plans from a high end, low deductable plan to lower end, high deductable plan is not deflation....that's just a quality choice. That's no different than subsituting hamburger for steak (or dog food for hamburger) and claiming your cost of living is unchanged. My family HC plan carries a $10,000 deductable, so in essence we pay for everything, every year, short of major surgery or an extended hospital stay. I had to go with that plan because the lower deductables would cost 50-100% more. Health care is my largest single bill at $9,000 per year. I expect it to be well over $10,000 next year when Obamacare effects kick in. It's gone up 5-15% each and every year since I got it.
Don't get too used to unnaturally low natural gas prices as those will probably ramp up for years. Gas prices have fallen for a month or two. That's not exactly a major trend change unless they find their way down another 20% to $3.00/gall. It's still a far cry from gas at $1.50 back in the late 1990's. I love these discussions on the cost of things...especially after commodities have been basically in a downturn for 2 years. Imagine how this debate will go when we're near the next 2 yr peak rather than a 2 yr valley. Supermarket prices should be at give-away levels based on the 2 yr drop in raw materials....they aren't. Raw coffee, sugar, and cocoa are at approx half of their 2011 peaks. Do you get your Starbucks coffee at half price? How about your candy bars? I didn't think so. And that's despite the shrinking wrappers and packaging. We can't forget that the true definition of inflation is increases in the money supply. M2 continues up at 10% per year for 15 yrs now. M0 is up 3.5X since the Lehman bust in 2008. This monetary inflation always finds its way to prices, it's just a matter of time. The longer that it's artificially kept from happening....the higher the prices will ultimately rise.
I must be living in different New Jersey ;-)
My town reassessed the taxes in 2010 and they've gone up and keep going up year over year (Monmouth County)
NJ Transit Zone 12 bus pass cost increased in 2010 from $259 to $324
All NYC tolls increased in 2012 to $13 from $12 and from $8 a few years earlier
Minicipal (resident) parking increase from $150 to $201
The only item I can agree went down compared to the past 3-4 years is natural gas price and with it heating bills
Applebees, TGIF now have the 2 for $20. Steak is one of the items on the menu for that price. Sure steak is up at the market, but if I want steak, we go to Applebees and get a nice meal for 2 for $20.
2 $10 entrees for 20 bucks is not your check. I would wager that Applebees average check
with that promo is north of $40.
Unless you just drink tap water & forget to tip
Last time I went to Applebees, $20 a - head didn't cover the tab.
<< <i>Realistically -
2 $10 entrees for 20 bucks is not your check. I would wager that Applebees average check
with that promo is north of $40.
Unless you just drink tap water & forget to tip
Last time I went to Applebees, $20 a - head didn't cover the tab. >>
Chili's has a similar off of 2 for $20. I've gotten out of there a few times for $25. When my wife orders coffee it annoys me as that "jacks" it up to over $27....lol.
Don't need the appetizer either so each time I went I was able to trade that for an equal priced dessert that we'd split. And we still went home feeling stuffed. Only reason
I ever go to Chilli's or equivalent is for a killer dessert (ie volcano cake w/ice cream or a brownie sundae). If you don't have a great dessert, you'll never get me in there.
Fwiw, I've never seen dessert prices come down at any restaurants I've frequented over the past 20 years. I think the 2 for $20 specials are helping to keep these chains in
business much like the value menu has done for McD's, BK, and Wendy's. It's either that or see your business plummet. Yeah, there is some deflation if you never want to order
anything different. I got further deflation news from my Big Y supermarket last week. Won a 6 month silver coin membership which allows me to get 30-50% off small selection
of specials - mostly desserts and snacks.
Don't need the appetizer either so each time I went I was able to trade that for an equal priced dessert that we'd split. And we still went home feeling stuffed. Only reason
I ever go to Chilli's or equivalent is for a killer dessert (ie volcano cake w/ice cream or a brownie sundae). If you don't have a great dessert, you'll never get me in there.
Me too!! Love the Chilli's volcano cake. We get out of there for $25 too. LOL. We do have water and that includes a 20% tip.
No appetizer or alcohol. "Laverne, see those two that just came
in, they're settting a bad example. Seat em by the kitchen door"
One place you do actually see the effects of deflation, at least over the last 5-15 years, has been in Walmart, Aldi, and a few other stores that have really managed to squeeze costs out of their distribution and retailing costs. Those are real efficiencies that have been passed along to consumer, though the downside is that in the process they've killed off a lot of small town main street and smaller chain retailers, and are putting pressure on traditional big grocery store chains. This "Walmart effect" has offset food price inflation to some degree... but eventually that process will reach its limits. There are only so many ways to make retailing more efficient. Even today I hear my elderly parents saying that Walmart's prices aren't what they used to be, relatively speaking. So the real price inflation that has occurred in food and other areas is becoming more and more evident even in places like W-M.
i agree with you overall on your statement Secondrepublic.
I would point out this quote as not being terribly true though.
Sysco, so they're paying a fraction of what the rest of us pay for groceries at retail.
I've owned three Restaurants so far in my lifetime. My last dominant purveyor was Sysco. Wholesale food prices are not as cheap as one might think. At least for Independent Restaurant owners. I don't know what kind of better deals, say a large Franchise can swing, but I suspect not a lot of difference. Fact is, they're not terribly cheaper than what people can buy at Costco. The difference however is in the quality. Several product lines are available thru a Sysco type purveyor. Typically low, medium and a premium. My experience is that retail food is of the lowest quality, hands down. Restaurants get first dibs on all the good stuff. True, the profits are in the drinks. Other profits come from shear volume of business. Many main course dishes are very thin on margin. I'm sure they're much thinner now than I was in the bussiness.
Don't confuse a restaurant or store's "loss leader" pricing on a few items as reflecting either inflation or deflation
IMHO, very true indeed.
Definitely wouldn't describe Argentina or Chile as a "banana republic" LOL
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
You guys are a restaruante nightmare.
No appetizer or alcohol
it comes with an appetizer. That's the whole point. It's a great deal
net stack size has stayed the same although I sold some and bought some items as my bullion collecting interests changed.
The basic fast food meal of hot sandwich, fries or chips, and endless beverage has dropped from $5 to $4 in several areas of the country.
The more upscale Chili's, Applebee's, Panera, etc "fast casual" meal with service starts at about $10 (or the 2 eat for $20 deals) and up of course, these figures are exclusive of tax and tip, one at the state's discression and one at the diner's) . And at even better chains and independents, you can still get a decent steak or seafood dinner with all the bells and whistles (a drink or two, dessert, etc) for under $50 a head
Another measure is, how many dollars or ounces of silver does it take to fill your gas tank? Levelled off or declining lately, again the ratios were different 2 and 4 years ago, who knows which direction and by how much they will change in the future?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Despite deflation, cheap women remain the same. >>
My research indicates that the cost of cheap women is declining as young women
cannot find employment in larger cities.
My local "gentlemen's club" has seen the quality of dancers decline and those
that are there are making less money. The beautiful young Russians who used to drive 40 miles each way
to make $500+ per night are gone, replaced with Dominicans. I could hardly get any attention
when the World Baseball Classic was going on last month.
Business is actually worse than at the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and
the first quarter of 2009.
Clearly that is a lagging indicator whereas I would have thought it to be a leading indicator.
It also points out the principle of elasticity of demand, as demand has declined by a greater
degree than I might have thought.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i> The beautiful young Russians who used to drive 40 miles each way
to make $500+ per night are gone, replaced with Dominicans. I could hardly get any attention
when the World Baseball Classic was going on last month. >>
Ok that was really funny +1
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