'80s Topps unopened baseball quantities

doog71

I know this has been a popular discussion on the boards recently, but I was wondering if anyone had any insight into how much unopened 1980s product there might be year-to-year.

For example, how much might there be from say 1985, compared to 1980?

My sense is that there's close to the same amount of 1980-1983, significantly more from 1984-1986, then very high quantities from 1987-1989.

Does that sound right? Any insight appreciated.

esebille

<< <i>I know this has been a popular discussion on the boards recently, but I was wondering if anyone had any insight into how much unopened 1980s product there might be year-to-year.

For example, how much might there be from say 1985, compared to 1980?

My sense is that there's close to the same amount of 1980-1983, significantly more from 1984-1986, then very high quantities from 1987-1989.

Does that sound right? Any insight appreciated. >>



My guess would be 1980 is quite a bit more rare than 1981-1983.

doog71

It certainly seems that way now, but why would Topps have made significantly more product from 1981-1983 than in 1980?

I probably should have been more specific in my post, more curious about print runs than what's CURRENTLY unopened...I know 1980 is drying up because of the Henderson rookie, but I wonder if they printed that much less in 1980 than in say 1981?

grote15

1980 (the last year of the Topps monopoly) is definitely a watershed year--wax boxes from that year command a huge premium over any other year after it. 1980 wax boxes are moving into the $400 and up range, which is more than triple the next valuable wax box (1982). 1981 and later boxes are also more plentiful than 1980 boxes, with those numbers rising pretty much exponentially with each passing year.

doog71

Thanks grote. Would that be because sportcards were becoming more popular after 1980? I wonder if there really are that many more boxes made 1981-1983 than 1980, or if it's more perception?

grote15

<< <i>Thanks grote. Would that be because sportcards were becoming more popular after 1980? I wonder if there really are that many more boxes made 1981-1983 than 1980, or if it's more perception? >>



I think it's primarily due to baseball card collecting as a hobby which rose in popularity with the advent of the Fleer and Donruss sets in 1981. More people began collecting and by extension more people began saving cards (and boxes of unopened packs) at this point. It is also possible, too, I suppose, that Topps began producing more product to meet higher demand by new collectors though I've never seen any hard data with regard to production run numbers during this era. That would be great info to find!

CubsKiller99

If Topps never released production numbers on those years, and barring any anecdotal evidence
from former Topps employees that would know, then it's all speculative.

But I do buy the argument that there is less 1980 unopened on the market (percentage-wise compared to 1981-83)
due to the Henderson rookie chase and also because of those still hoarding unopened packs and boxes because
of their increaseed value related to the possibility of pulling the same card.

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>

<< <i>Thanks grote. Would that be because sportcards were becoming more popular after 1980? I wonder if there really are that many more boxes made 1981-1983 than 1980, or if it's more perception? >>



I think it's primarily due to baseball card collecting as a hobby which rose in popularity with the advent of the Fleer and Donruss sets in 1981. More people began collecting and by extension more people began saving cards (and boxes of unopened packs) at this point. It is also possible, too, I suppose, that Topps began producing more product to meet higher demand by new collectors though I've never seen any hard data with regard to production run numbers during this era. That would be great info to find! >>



I agree.

Topps basically had a monopoly until 1981. When Donruss and Fleer entered the picture, Topps had to step up their game. This meant getting their cards out there more and in the drug stores, toy stores, grocery stores, etc instead of Donruss or Fleer. My guess is that there is a significant jump from 1980 to 1981 and every year after.

Before 1980, I think 1977 is when it starts to get rarer. They stepped up in 1978 too.

I would kill for the production information from Topps...that would be great information to have. Someone out there has to have it right?

doog71

I know it's very difficult to predict, but I wonder when (if?) the 1986-1990 Topps stuff dries up. 1987 and 1990 have great rookies so people will always be ripping, but could a $10 1990 box be a $40 box within 10 years? Or more like a 100 years lol...

ClockworkAngel

How about Donruss or Fleer? They've never released production numbers either?

doog71

It'd be great to know Donruss/Fleer production numbers too, of course.

My belief is that, even if lots of product was made from say, 1982-1987, there are enough rookie hits and pack rippers to eventually dry up the supply. Of course, with years like 1987, it could be 20 years before that happens, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened before then.

RookieWax

Because I follow them regularly, I can tell you that 2-3 years ago there were buy-it-nows regularly available on ebay at $100 to $120 for every kind of 1990 Topps baseball case (wax, cello, jumbo). Those now only show up once in a while.....and when they do, they usually sell well north of $200.

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>I know it's very difficult to predict, but I wonder when (if?) the 1986-1990 Topps stuff dries up. 1987 and 1990 have great rookies so people will always be ripping, but could a $10 1990 box be a $40 box within 10 years? Or more like a 100 years lol... >>



I doubt it. I think one of the things driving unopened prices up is the chance to bring in a PSA 10 example of certain cards that are very rare. 1990 boxes will have hundreds of Gem Mint examples thus will not have anything of any potential value in the rip. A 1979 box will have that chance at a 9 or 10 Ozzie

RookieWax

<< <i>

<< <i>I know it's very difficult to predict, but I wonder when (if?) the 1986-1990 Topps stuff dries up. 1987 and 1990 have great rookies so people will always be ripping, but could a $10 1990 box be a $40 box within 10 years? Or more like a 100 years lol... >>



I doubt it. I think one of the things driving unopened prices up is the chance to bring in a PSA 10 example of certain cards that are very rare. 1990 boxes will have hundreds of Gem Mint examples thus will not have anything of any potential value in the rip. A 1979 box will have that chance at a 9 or 10 Ozzie >>



Prices on 1990 Topps PSA 10s are no higher than they were a few years ago and the population #s on them have gone up (not down). Despite all of this, 1990 wax boxes/cases today are selling better and at higher average price. This is due to less unopened product out there and more former collectors returning and buying boxes to rip.

esquiresports

1987-89 product has been crushed by the steroid era, so the demand side of the equation will probably never be there. I can see the boxes doubling in 10 years, primarily due to inflation and maybe a slight a downward ticking in (available) supply, but not quadrupling. 1989 Donruss and Fleer cases commanded $400 12 years ago. I see as much product available now as I did then. There are a lot of people sitting on storage lockers full of cases from the 1988-1991 era. If prices started to jump, I think you would see supply increase to offset the effects. There are still 1000s or tens of thousands of these cases out there unopened.

I believe what was posted by ClockworkAngel is accurate. A small but noticeable jump in production in 1978 and a big jump in product in 1981. Between 1981 and 1991, you may have seen close to a doubling or more in supply every year, as noted by Grote. Peak production was somewhere between 1988 and 1991.

One thing I think everyone here who was around and collecting in 1988 can probably agree on is that NO ONE will ever touch 1988 Donruss production numbers!

softparade

I ripped a 1978 rack case here in 2005. The thread is somewhere. Have so much great raw from that. Anyway, I have been out of it foe a long while but hear that the late 70's stuff is getting very hard to find in case and even box form.

Estil

<< <i>
One thing I think everyone here who was around and collecting in 1988 can probably agree on is that NO ONE will ever touch 1988 Donruss production numbers! >>



Not to mention that compared to all the other designs from 1984-89, it was probably the weakest

CubsKiller99

<< <i>I know it's very difficult to predict, but I wonder when (if?) the 1986-1990 Topps stuff dries up. 1987 and 1990 have great rookies so people will always be ripping, but could a $10 1990 box be a $40 box within 10 years? Or more like a 100 years lol... >>



It's already drying up.

BBCE doesn't even have a case of 1990 or 1991 Topps to sell you.

1987 will probably go next to "box-only" pricing. 1989 seems to
be available in quantity, but don't ask BBCE to sell you a wax case.
Cuz they don't have one for sale.

doog71

Interesting. I'm basically trying to purchase and put away whatever wax boxes (Topps, Donruss, Fleer) between 1980-1991 that have a shot at gaining reasonable momentum over the next 20 years. (Putting them away for my kids).

I feel pretty good about 1980-1985 across the board. The later stuff I suppose might as well take a flyer on as it's pretty inexpensive.

The only unopened I'm targeting outside of those years is Topps Heritage, 1992 and 1993 Bowman, 2001 SP Authentic, 1993 Finest, 1993 Pinnacle, 1994 and 1995 Bowman's Best.

Would anyone have any other suggestions (baseball) that are 2001 and earlier?

Thanks again for all the replies!

mygotta

It appears to me that 1980 certainly would be considered the most rare (relatively speaking of course) in the 80's. I am wondering if 1981 Topps is close to 1980, but more available because it is considerably less popular. Fleer and Donruss boxes are pretty cheap - around $40 a box. 1981 Topps box can be had cheaper than a 2013 Topps Jumbo box. But at least from what I see in eBay searches, '82 and '83 are far more available. I do not know why 1984 Donruss and Fleer suddenly cut production numbers. I dont know if it was sales, or intentionally making their products scarce. 1985 Topps is not scarce, but a very popular set for its great rookie and HOF crop (as with Donruss and Fleer). 1986 falls into the category of 1981. Its just a poor rookie selection, but good HOF'ers. Otherwise I see them to be going up in value, even if they are considered cheap. 1987-1991 all seem to go up in production. I would think 1987 has the strongest pull right now, but I dont see them drying up any time soon. Unless people start hoarding to wait and see who gets into the Hall to create a forced scarcity and demand.

larryallen73

<< <i>How about Donruss or Fleer? They've never released production numbers either? >>



I believe Donruss and Fleer are both still printing some of those years!

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>1987-89 product has been crushed by the steroid era, so the demand side of the equation will probably never be there. I can see the boxes doubling in 10 years, primarily due to inflation and maybe a slight a downward ticking in (available) supply, but not quadrupling. 1989 Donruss and Fleer cases commanded $400 12 years ago. I see as much product available now as I did then. There are a lot of people sitting on storage lockers full of cases from the 1988-1991 era. If prices started to jump, I think you would see supply increase to offset the effects. There are still 1000s or tens of thousands of these cases out there unopened.

I believe what was posted by ClockworkAngel is accurate. A small but noticeable jump in production in 1978 and a big jump in product in 1981. Between 1981 and 1991, you may have seen close to a doubling or more in supply every year, as noted by Grote. Peak production was somewhere between 1988 and 1991.

One thing I think everyone here who was around and collecting in 1988 can probably agree on is that NO ONE will ever touch 1988 Donruss production numbers! >>



Yes, I remember seeing Dale Murphy's smiling face holding his card just about everywhere I went in the late 80's. When I started seeing it for sale at Pic N Save and Longs Drugs, I knew they really took it to the next level. I think I have about 500 Roberto Alomars

Funny thing is I remember how hard it was to pull those supposed short prints..I had a hell of a time getting the Gregg Jeffries SP RC out of that box. I thought it was going to be so expensive because it seemed impossible to oull

TheCARDKid

I remember reading/hearing years ago that 80's football and basketball cards were 10% of the production in baseball. This was in one of those books you see in target or walmart about baseball card collecting.

The 87-89 years were ALOT. I remember back in 88 and 89, people saying wow, these cards are everywhere, etc. Certainly compared to 1975 or 80. I don't think 87-89 cards will ever be worth much.

-I think 80 boxes have gone up because the Henderson rookie is so rare in a PSA 10. Also the 9's have held their value.

-83 cards always seemed kind of cheap. Great rookies in Boggs, Gwynn and Sandberg. Remember when those PSA 10's were a $1,000 each?

If I had to pick a sleeper 80's year, I'd pick 86 topps. Not the best player selection, but it seems like it has some room to move up. Much cheaper than 85. But I don't think they were as mass produced as 87. 87 was when the hobby really started jumping.

-I think 87-89 cards were also offered in catalogs, like sears or jc penny. I seem to remember more retail distribution, vs 84-86.

mygotta

In regards to 87 which I want to focus on here, there is a big discrepancy in price from Topps and Donruss and Fleer. Topps is way cheaper. Searching eBay prices for Fleer boxes, most sellers are asking around $40-$50 plus shipping. A local store near me is asking $90!! While I feel that price is very high, there seems to be a higher demand for Fleer. There is also the glossy sets (which seem more populated than the regular set at times). Donruss runs a medium second with prices ranging between $25-$50, which I think actually has the best rookie selection (Larkin, Bonds, Maddux, and McGwire in addition to Palmeiro). Leaf Donruss are getting difficult to find as well with boxes up around $40. With the all-black border, they are generally tough to get graded well. And lastly is Topps which clearly has the most available and boxes are around $15-$25.

I have no idea of production run and to know would not change too much to the value. But it seems to me this set will remain popular despite the production numbers. Even if prices rarely if ever go up, they are both well liked and have great rookies, HOF'ers and future HOF'ers, which gives it the demand it currently has. I would say in 20 years, when the dust has settled and those that are in the Hall are announced and those that ended their careers and did not make it will never get in will eventually seal its place in the history of cards. For now, it is still a Pandora's Wax Box.

Does anyone know which card in the PSA population report has received the most 10's of any card?

mygotta

<< <i>

Does anyone know which card in the PSA population report has received the most 10's of any card? >>



ok, so I got curious and did my own research. Here is what I found:


2011 Bowman Prospects Bryce Harper #BP1 - 372
2011 Topps Update Bryce Harper #US175 - 360
2000 Topps Chrome Miguel Cabrera Traded #T40 - 367
2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects #BCP1 Bryce Harper - 449
1993 Bowman Derek Jeter #511 - 450
1994 Ted Williams Card Co. Derek Jeter #124 - 588
2000 Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera #T40 - 633
1993 Score Derek Jeter #489 - 651
1986 Fleer Update Barry Bonds #U-14 - 912
1995 Mothers Cookies Mariners Derek Jeter #7 - 924
1986 Donruss Rookies Barry Bonds #11 - 1022
1993 Topps Derek Jeter #98 - 1028
1989 Bowman Ken Griffey Jr #220 - 1032
1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr #33 - 1080
1987 Donruss Mark McGwire #46 - 1099
1987 Donruss Greg Maddux #36 - 1386
1990 Topps Frank Thomas #414 - 1445
1986 Sportflics Rookies Barry Bonds #13 - 1643
1990 Leaf Frank Thomas #300 - 1758
1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr #1 - 1857
1989 Fleer Ken Griffey Jr #548 - 2109
1987 Topps Traded Greg Maddux #70T - 2615
1989 Score Traded Ken Griffey Jr #100T - 2782
1994 Flair Alex Rodriguez #340 - 2804
1985 Chong Modesto A's Mark McGwire #17 - 2887
1986 Topps Traded Barry Bonds #11T - 3259
1987 Topps All-Star Glossy Barry Bonds #30 - 5379
1989 Topps Traded Ken Griffey Jr #41T - 8648 (62,000 submissions)

It would seem to me there is a point where a PSA 10 would be only book value (or less) and nothing more. PSA 10's of Topps Traded Griffey are getting around $15. Pretty soon a PSA 7, of which only 360 exist, might be more desirable than a 10!

mcadams

<< <i>

-I think 87-89 cards were also offered in catalogs, like sears or jc penny. I seem to remember more retail distribution, vs 84-86. >>



The Christmas Catalogs were offering Topps 84-86 as well, although in factory set form, not wax.

CubsKiller99

If I submit a 1989 Griffey (any brand) in PSA 1 then I will have one of the rarest graded cards.

Good to know.

softparade

<< <i>If I submit a 1989 Griffey (any brand) in PSA 1 then I will have one of the rarest graded cards.

Good to know. >>



lol

I have always wondered how it is possible to receive such a low grade on ALMOST anything modern. I mean, come on lol. What are you looking at!