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War in Korea?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
North Korean military is on war footing. Now, they never signed a peace treaty with South Korea, so the Korean War really never ended.
Anyway, what does it mean for gold, if shooting actually starts. The likely knee jerk response is a rally, but what follows after that. What are the scenarios? Despite the North having an antiquated military, Seoul, the South Korean capital and economic center, is in artillery range of the big guns from the North. There would likely be hundreds of thousands of casualties on the first day of a full out artillery barrage from the North.
If that happens, the U.S. would already be in the war, because of the thousands of U.S. troops in the country. Would Japan, China and Russia enter the conflict? If you were an adviser to those countries might you use it as a chance to bleed the U.S. and weaken its already depleted military (depleted by fighting two regional wars), with covert aid and support to the North? Or would you advise a more active role? For China, it would almost seem too good a chance to pass up, to install sympathetic puppet governments in both North and South Korea. Or are they not so smart, not so subtle?
If it flares, Korea can be a much bigger deal than tiny Cyprus, or Greece. The geopolitics get real complicated in any war scenario. Japan, Korea, China, tolerate each other, but there are centuries of old scores to be settled and memories are long.
Anyway, what does it mean for gold, if shooting actually starts. The likely knee jerk response is a rally, but what follows after that. What are the scenarios? Despite the North having an antiquated military, Seoul, the South Korean capital and economic center, is in artillery range of the big guns from the North. There would likely be hundreds of thousands of casualties on the first day of a full out artillery barrage from the North.
If that happens, the U.S. would already be in the war, because of the thousands of U.S. troops in the country. Would Japan, China and Russia enter the conflict? If you were an adviser to those countries might you use it as a chance to bleed the U.S. and weaken its already depleted military (depleted by fighting two regional wars), with covert aid and support to the North? Or would you advise a more active role? For China, it would almost seem too good a chance to pass up, to install sympathetic puppet governments in both North and South Korea. Or are they not so smart, not so subtle?
If it flares, Korea can be a much bigger deal than tiny Cyprus, or Greece. The geopolitics get real complicated in any war scenario. Japan, Korea, China, tolerate each other, but there are centuries of old scores to be settled and memories are long.
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Gut feeling: nothing will happen with North Korea. It's generally a poor distraction for other shenanigans world leaders are engaging in, particularly installing new regimes in the Middle East and calling them "democratic." The bigger worry would probably be a currency adjustment war between the US and a bunch of Eastern countries.
Interests:
Pre-Jump Grade Project
Toned Commemoratives
Interests:
Pre-Jump Grade Project
Toned Commemoratives
than we think. Wonderful way to get your people help and fed and be able to finally sign a treaty and preserve
the lives of the elite.
A suppressed people will only tolerate the leadership so long. Perhaps the internal unrest is building to a head?
bob
<< <i>....Not worth any of my time to be remotely concerned. Stop listening to mainstream media!................. >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses." Juvenal, Satire 10.77–81
<< <i>Any leader that is a fan of Dennis Rodman is a NUT! He is liable to do anything~scary!!! >>
and its not getting any better
Found this today on the naked capitalism site.
north korea is a rational actor.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>It is my belief that a powerful, behind the scenes ally of NK is prodding/using them to start hostilities. NK is getting the go ahead/blessing from someone. I'm sure NK thinks someone has their back. >>
Why not just say China? We all know who the puppet-master is.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>I was thinking of the other player. >>
Really? What is Russias motive in your opinion? I assume your talking Russia and Not Iran...........
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
But you brought it up
edited to add: ended my participation
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Not being a jerk, but I could really give a sh*t. Not worth any of my time to be remotely concerned. Stop listening to mainstream media! They're nothing, and even Obama with his weak foreign policy arse would blow them off the planet if they posed any real threat. >>
I get your point about the mainstream media but there are people with family on that line right now.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>since it doesn't involve PMs, i'll refrain from discussing. >>
You don't think a crisis that escalates into a major war can have an effect on PM's?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
<< <i>and i ended it.
You can start a thread but that doesn't mean you own it.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
<< <i>
<< <i>since it doesn't involve PMs, i'll refrain from discussing. >>
You don't think a crisis that escalates into a major war can have an effect on PM's? >>
The thing is it wont be a "Major" war, the conflict will last less than a Month and at the end of that time The NK war machine will be completely incapacitated. Yes there will be lots of dead civilians and military personel but after they are brought to their knees it wont be like Iraq and Afghanistan where its non stop guerilla warfare, the NK people will be relieved that the harsh rule is over with. The problem is going to be the amount of money we sink in to reform that country into another South Korea and that will bring us further into debt and the economy will suffer more. Im starting to think that my waiting for the $25 Silver number might be wasting time, I been buying more at the $29-$30 mark recently and am satisfied that I will get a decent return sooner rather than later.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>since it doesn't involve PMs, i'll refrain from discussing. >>
You don't think a crisis that escalates into a major war can have an effect on PM's? >>
The thing is it wont be a "Major" war, the conflict will last less than a Month and at the end of that time The NK war machine will be completely incapacitated. Yes there will be lots of dead civilians and military personel but after they are brought to their knees it wont be like Iraq and Afghanistan where its non stop guerilla warfare, the NK people will be relieved that the harsh rule is over with. The problem is going to be the amount of money we sink in to reform that country into another South Korea and that will bring us further into debt and the economy will suffer more. Im starting to think that my waiting for the $25 Silver number might be wasting time, I been buying more at the $29-$30 mark recently and am satisfied that I will get a decent return sooner rather than later. >>
We thought the same thing in 1950 until the Chinese got involved.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
I'm confused , is this North Korean stuff the bread or the circuses?
<< <i>Japan ? No, they are not allowed to have an army. We are the Japan army. >>
Their constitution doesn't allow them to have an army but the do have a self defense force. If there is an attack on S. Korea by N. Korea (think mass invasion) and the US doesn't defend S.Korea, the Japanese will have no choice but to develope a nuclear arsenal.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Just out of curiosity does North Korea have a central bank? Is it tied into the BIS IMF world bank etc?
A little korean history lesson
I knew it would happen.