WOW...

ClockworkAngel

Haven't seen one of these up for sale since the Dmitiri auction.

I have my fingers crossed that we see crazyness. Based on what we've seen in the market of late and what the bid already is, it should be fun to watch!

Molly

esquiresports

Nice! You may have to up your insurance coverage for your collection after this auction. Hah. It's great to see most of these high-grade/lower-population cards from the 1970s and early 1980s bounce back post-2008 levels.

orioles93

That seller has 3 nice cards up for sale. This molitor rookie PSA 10, plus an 84 topps tiffany mattingly PSA 10 and a 1975 topps mini yount PSA 10. Nice stuff!

MintMoondog

<< <i>That seller has 3 nice cards up for sale. This molitor rookie PSA 10, plus an 84 topps tiffany mattingly PSA 10 and a 1975 topps mini yount PSA 10. Nice stuff! >>



Indeed.

Bosox1976

Who forgot to put the smudge on the Molly?

Darn fine cards!

Exodus

Here's another WOW.

Look at what cardboard-classics has been buying lately.

He bought his Andre Dawson PSA 10

Cardboard-classics

MintMoondog

<< <i>Who forgot to put the smudge on the Molly?

Darn fine cards! >>



You mean the Trammell rookie right?

ClockworkAngel

I paid $1300 for a Dawson about a year ago. Seriously cannot believe that thing is now $3,000. WOW!

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>Here's another WOW.

Look at what cardboard-classics has been buying lately.

He bought his Andre Dawson PSA 10

Cardboard-classics >>



I am trying to learn to read the bid history of these items as well as some of you to look for shilling. Isn't this one a classic example? It looks like r***r (1) shilled and brought the price up.

Dpeck100

The bidder you are referencing has only bid on 1% of the listings from this seller and 136 items in total.

If I were you I would bookmark the listings and check it in a few days and see if his feedback number climbs from all of the bids on other items.

I don't think you can instantly say shilling just because of the low feedback number.

From a value perspective I would not use this as a base case yet as there were only two people willing to pay more then $2,433 and to maintain the selling price of $3,049 I think you will need more interest closer to the final selling price.

Either way this card has gone up. I recall seeing cards selling in the $1,700+ range in the past year.

sayheykid54

That's one of the nicest Trammell rookies I've seen.

YogiBerraFan

Awesome looking card!

ldferg

That Yount is off the charts.

The classic-cardboards buyer is snatching up some nice things.

1954

Guys shill bid with 2000+ feedback too. Just because you have 50 feedback does not mean you are shill bidding.

Dodgerfanjohn

I can think of other financial based markets that experienced unsustainable appreciation also. The housing market and the stock market of the present and past 10 years or so most certainly provide relevant examples.

I think before you guys go cheerleading, you ought to examine the fundamentals at work here.....

namely:

-shilling potential
-dudes temporarily rich due to temporary interest in collecting, lawsuit settlement money, newfound credit, etc
-restricted market(ie people cornering parts of the market)
-fads(ie the registry)

As pointed out earlier in this thread, its way different when there are lots of bidders at multiple price levels than when there are only a few bidders above a certain price point.

Put another way, I challenge one of you to list the same card on your own ebay account and obtain the same selling price, or even close. If the bid history on this auction is actual serious bidders, one would expect to get at least $2400+ since thats where there were still two losing bidders in this auction.

I highly doubt that happens.

I should make clear I was referring to the Dawson auction.

Dpeck100

Current bid is $5,364.

Very nice.

TheDudeAbides

<< <i>That's one of the nicest Trammell rookies I've seen. >>



Gotta give my ... +1

ClockworkAngel

Will it hit 7K?

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>I can think of other financial based markets that experienced unsustainable appreciation also. The housing market and the stock market of the present and past 10 years or so most certainly provide relevant examples.

I think before you guys go cheerleading, you ought to examine the fundamentals at work here.....

namely:

-shilling potential
-dudes temporarily rich due to temporary interest in collecting, lawsuit settlement money, newfound credit, etc
-restricted market(ie people cornering parts of the market)
-fads(ie the registry)

As pointed out earlier in this thread, its way different when there are lots of bidders at multiple price levels than when there are only a few bidders above a certain price point.

Put another way, I challenge one of you to list the same card on your own ebay account and obtain the same selling price, or even close. If the bid history on this auction is actual serious bidders, one would expect to get at least $2400+ since thats where there were still two losing bidders in this auction.

I highly doubt that happens.

I should make clear I was referring to the Dawson auction. >>



As usual, full of cheer and optimism. Always appreciate your negative feedback to put a damper on everyone's excitement about the market

Dodgerfanjohn

<< <i>

<< <i>I can think of other financial based markets that experienced unsustainable appreciation also. The housing market and the stock market of the present and past 10 years or so most certainly provide relevant examples.

I think before you guys go cheerleading, you ought to examine the fundamentals at work here.....

namely:

-shilling potential
-dudes temporarily rich due to temporary interest in collecting, lawsuit settlement money, newfound credit, etc
-restricted market(ie people cornering parts of the market)
-fads(ie the registry)

As pointed out earlier in this thread, its way different when there are lots of bidders at multiple price levels than when there are only a few bidders above a certain price point.

Put another way, I challenge one of you to list the same card on your own ebay account and obtain the same selling price, or even close. If the bid history on this auction is actual serious bidders, one would expect to get at least $2400+ since thats where there were still two losing bidders in this auction.

I highly doubt that happens.

I should make clear I was referring to the Dawson auction. >>



As usual, full of cheer and optimism. Always appreciate your negative feedback to put a damper on everyone's excitement about the market >>



LOL.

Right around 2005 the majority of the United States was drooling imbeciles when it came to the housing market too.

Markets not supported by fundamentals WILL crash.

Markets that are supported by speculators, particularly those buying on margin(ie credit with no real ability to pay back the loan except by selling in a still rising market) WILL crash.

This isn't rocket science. Its fundamental economics.

But thats ok, you keep believing that those 4 figure cards with 10's on the slabs are gonna sell like that forever.

Just a question...what kind of income/wealth do you think one would need to be a regular collector of cards in that price range?

corncobb

Utter Stupidity indeed

MintMoondog

I can tell you with 100% certainty, speaking only of premium 1970s cards - prices have been steadily increasing for top quality pristine key cards from Stars to white-whales (uncommon commons) over the past 3 years. We have had 5-10 years of people searching for these tough cards, rooting through all the supposed warehouses full of unopened 1970s material, and if you have any experience actually opening boxes you'll quickly realize that populations will not explode like they can with modern stuff.
Now it is just a simple equation of whether demand among 1970s collectors (many of whom are now in their 40s and in their peak earning years) will exceed the slowly growing supply. For common 8s, not so much you can have them for a song. For cards like these two? If I had 10k to throw around I would bid up that Trammell/Moliter rookie in a heartbeat.

MattyC

I do think some (and I hope most) people actually collect because they get pure enjoyment from the cards. And some people comfortably afford cards that cost 1k or 10k or even 100k. If they're happy with what they buy, more power to them.

I don't know about everyone else, but when I buy a baseball card for a personal collection the things that enter my mind are not "restricted markets" and "lawsuit settlements." I buy because I desire the card.

I also agree with Henry in that when there are so very few examples of a card (whether in total or at a given lofty tier, i.e. PSA 9 or 10 grade) it does not take a deep pool of interested collectors with the requisite means to keep the price high. As to value, I just don't see cards like this Molitor Trammell or say a PSA 9 Ryan RC going down the price toilet anytime soon. If anyone has a card like this and thinks otherwise, I'm happy to take it off your hands

I believe Henry is also correct to point out that the odds of a population explosion in such cards are pretty much non-existent, given the state of the cards out of the pack. Many more 10s would have to surface to disrupt the current balance of supply and collectors with the money to afford such a card. That balance seems pretty fundamental and solid to me.

It is really surprising though, how often the surfacing and subsequent sale of premium cards elicits such dire prognostications of the market. And yet they almost always sell very well.

Also, though I am not active in it, I really do not believe the Registry is a fad. Where a fad is a short-lived, I think it the Registry is now firmly part of the hobby and here to stay.

MattyC

<< <i>Now it is just a simple equation of whether demand among 1970s collectors (many of whom are now in their 40s and in their peak earning years) will exceed the slowly growing supply. For common 8s, not so much you can have them for a song. For cards like these two? If I had 10k to throw around I would bid up that Trammell/Moliter rookie in a heartbeat. >>



Exactly. Like Rob Base said (or should I say sampled?) all it takes is two. That said I would not be sad at all if prices of all cards came down. The ones I own would be worth less, but it'd be better in the sense of what could then be bought! So let's bring on the market crash that never seems to happen. I bet we can all agree that '52 Mantles in centered condition selling for say 30% of their current price would be awesome. I'd like a Brunners' Cobb for 1K and maybe an M101 Ruth for 5K, too. And this Molitor/Trammel should start selling for 1K— what a future that would be!

MintMoondog

<< <i>

<< <i>Now it is just a simple equation of whether demand among 1970s collectors (many of whom are now in their 40s and in their peak earning years) will exceed the slowly growing supply. For common 8s, not so much you can have them for a song. For cards like these two? If I had 10k to throw around I would bid up that Trammell/Moliter rookie in a heartbeat. >>



Exactly. Like Rob Base said (or should I say sampled?) all it takes is two. That said I would not be sad at all if prices of all cards came down. The ones I own would be worth less, but it'd be better in the sense of what could then be bought! So let's bring on the market crash that never seems to happen. I bet we can all agree that '52 Mantles in centered condition selling for say 30% of their current price would be awesome. I'd like a Brunners' Cobb for 1K and maybe an M101 Ruth for 5K, too. And this Molitor/Trammel should start selling for 1K— what a future that would be! >>



Sounds great Matt! Let's talk about all those great Mini psa 10s you have, to begin...the Ryan #5 HL psa 10

Dpeck100

There have been 13 out of 4,243 grade PSA 10 Gem Mint. This is a very low population relative to the number of cards submitted obviously.

This card has collectors, set collectors and pure investors chasing it.

At this moment there are five bidders at or above $3,500 so you can safely suggest there is good support for this card at that price.

John posed the question at what income or wealth level one must be to buy cards in this price range. There is no real answer to that question. You could have a person who only has one card in this price range or 1,000.

With interest rates as low as they are there is clearly a lot of speculative money finding a home in collectibles. The OP has said in the past he has used investment dollars that were in a retirement account and put them into high end cards. If you built a card portfolio that consisted of high end cards you don't have to have a huge amount of money to play in this price range. If you had just $100,000 you could pick up a good number of high dollar cards such as this.

To pay for a card like this with cash flow you would have to have a strong income to buy something in this price range on a consistent basis but once again you really can't put a number on it. If someone makes $100,000 and is single that is drastically different then someone who makes $100,000 with a wife and two kids. Another huge issue is one's fixed obligations and income levels can't forecast that. If you make $200,000 and have low overhead vs. someone who has kids in college and a huge mortgage you have two drastically different cash flow needs.

John I am curious what price you think a card like this should sell for or will sell for and what financial profile is needed to play in this price range.

MattyC

Henry,

Thx, I still remember the near-heart attack I had when I looked at the review sub and saw that Ryan had a 10 next to it. I stared at it a long beat to make sure it was real. I'm usually a very unlucky person with such things so that stands out as a highlight moment for me.

I can actually only imagine what your main mini set looks like now. 9.30 is ridiculous. Ridiculous. I know because I tried. Massive props. I think it's the most exciting set to watch on the Registry. But you gotta scan the whole thing for viewing!

Unless it's modern, 10s for me are a rare thing. But full-size minis are the exception. When one opens those boxes and pulls OC card after OC card, and then when that centered 10 comes along, man, how tough they are... Sadly most vintage cards I like sail well out of my range in high-grade; thankfully there have been so few mini star 10s out there to chase!

But again I welcome a market crash-- today I'll daydream about not only a PSA 10 mini Schmidt or Winfield ever surfacing, but then ever selling for less than 5k

MattyC

Dpeck, I agree 100%. Income is so relative to individuals' specific situations-- which as you stated so well can be endlessly varied-- and is thus a moot topic. There are so many variables there, as you said. I think another man's salary has little to do with sportscards. What difference does it make if "Guy X" makes 300k a year or 3 million or what about a guy who might make 50k but always loved this card as a kid and stretches a bit to get his favorite whale, paying it off over six months? It's all the same in the end: the card sells.

MintMoondog

If we take your point Matt and dpeck to the set level then one can make some very interesting speculation. For example, I can guarantee no one will be able to build a 9.25 or above Mini set anytime soon without any of the top 3 sets selling out. Similarly, consider the incredible 1978 topps Hatch set which is only a few cards from reaching an impossible 10.00! Someone has been steadily building a 1977 topps psa 10 set which is also herculean! Honestly, what is the real value of a one of a kind set like the Hatch 78? How many years did it take to put together and are there the number of cases laying around that it took to get this set to that level? Highly doubtful. Therefore, it is just a matter of time for the market to adjust to the actual rarity of high end cards from this era. The issue with cards is that there are often large gaps between high end card sales, and the extent to which it is unpredictable leads to an inefficient market. Another two interesting recurring events tend to take place after a major sale breaking a previous ceiling.
1. Individuals tend to sell off their card shortly after - however, one of the chasers has gotten their prize, so the likelihood of a 2nd bidding war is diminished therefore the 2nd card often sells at a discount.
2. Individuals tend to sell their crap versions of the card (i.e. shameful 9s) which also receives a discount because high end collectors tend to review the card more than the case.

MattyC

Henry you raise a very good point at the end there, namely this: not all cards in the same grade (or sets with similar GPAs) are equal. Taking that point further, it's specious logic to see a solid 10 sell for X and an unworthy example subsequently sell for less than X and then declare the card to be declining in value. Many collectors know that cards, even those within the same grade, need to be looked at and judged-- and bid upon/priced-- on an individual basis. Each card is unique in its strengths and flaws. One particular card may appeal to a buyer willing to pay a premium over historical price. Another in the same grade might not. One wealthy buyer gets his, now he's out. As you nailed, a next quick sale of a lesser example will likely go for less. But a year from now another big buyer may have entered the fray.

This individual basis of looking at and valuing cards stands in direct conflict to any effort to analyze or predict the greater, generalized card "market." I guess the salient point is that it's much more productive to discuss the merits and flaws of a specific card or set with fellow collectors than it is to try and speculate or predict the general market way into the future.

ClockworkAngel

<< <i>There have been 13 out of 4,243 grade PSA 10 Gem Mint. This is a very low population relative to the number of cards submitted obviously.

This card has collectors, set collectors and pure investors chasing it.

At this moment there are five bidders at or above $3,500 so you can safely suggest there is good support for this card at that price.

John posed the question at what income or wealth level one must be to buy cards in this price range. There is no real answer to that question. You could have a person who only has one card in this price range or 1,000.

With interest rates as low as they are there is clearly a lot of speculative money finding a home in collectibles. The OP has said in the past he has used investment dollars that were in a retirement account and put them into high end cards. If you built a card portfolio that consisted of high end cards you don't have to have a huge amount of money to play in this price range. If you had just $100,000 you could pick up a good number of high dollar cards such as this.

To pay for a card like this with cash flow you would have to have a strong income to buy something in this price range on a consistent basis but once again you really can't put a number on it. If someone makes $100,000 and is single that is drastically different then someone who makes $100,000 with a wife and two kids. Another huge issue is one's fixed obligations and income levels can't forecast that. If you make $200,000 and have low overhead vs. someone who has kids in college and a huge mortgage you have two drastically different cash flow needs.

John I am curious what price you think a card like this should sell for or will sell for and what financial profile is needed to play in this price range. >>



This is a great answer, similar to what I was going to post.

John, it's not a matter of "how much would one have to make to bid on this?". You pose that question as if buying a card like this is strictly splurging on something out of sheer enjoyment and nothing else.

There are many people like myself that have re entered the card market, are considered high earners, and have seen an opportunity to invest my money in something that is outrageously fun, nostalgic, and gratifying, and in my opinion just as (if not more) reliable as the DOW or stock market, which I happen to think is overpriced and prime to adjust down a bit.

So should I invest 5K in Wall Street or a rookie card of my 2nd all time favorite player? It doesn't matter if I make 50K or 500K, if I've done my due diligence and see this stuff as a great investment then I'm in, and there are many others popping back in with the same idea of investing AND collecting. I see it as both.

This isn't necessarily just "funny money" people have to have to buy thee cards

galaxy27

<< <i>Exactly. Like Rob Base said (or should I say sampled?) all it takes is two. >>




Oh wow. Sorry to create a diversion from an insightful discussion, but I couldn't allow this reference to slide. Few months ago I was rummaging through some junk cards and I stumbled across an '87 Topps Darryl Motley that appeared to be 10x's thicker & heavier than every other card. I flipped it over and lo and behold, a cassette single of "Get on the Dance Floor" plastered to the back.

MintMoondog

Yount10

Wow, as stated in the mini thread. This auction has blown me out of the water. 4.6K with a bit of time left...you cant find a better Yount gem10 than that one!

ClockworkAngel

anti climactic ending. It was at that number all day

MattyC

Sweet action on the Yount though! $5300. Wow.

Dpeck100

BBG,

What smells fishy about these final prices? Please elaborate.

MintMoondog

Fishy? Yah like Caviar - those were stone cold auctions. In regards to the Yount: this auction blew away the previous with several strong under-bidders. I have a strong Yount mini 10, but I wouldn't sell at 5K regardless...let's see if that price pulls another from a collector's hands.

MattyC

I'm with Henry and Dpeck: looks like multiple legit bidders. Super high-end cards that drew serious collectors who wanted the best. Congrats to the new owners of both.

Dpeck100

I am just curious what doesn't look legit.

BBG continues to be a non believer. The two Ozzie Smith sales were fishy. Yet the winner of one of them comes on the board and exposes himself and then sells the card for more.

The long term outlook for these cards maybe higher or maybe lower but constantly suggesting they are fraudulent yet paying record prices for cards to me seems silly.

There is a raging bull market for high end cards and perhaps it will end soon but the bottom line is these high end cards are getting paid for and nothing anyone says will change that.

There is certainly issues in this hobby but on cards that are in high demand market forces are very powerful and there are humans that want to add them to their collections and are willing to pay large sums to do so.

ClockworkAngel

I don't get all the conspiracy theorists out there. Everything is "fishy" to some of these guys and everything is doom and gloom to others.

I was one of the under bidders on the Yount. I don't think I was up to anything fishy by bidding...? But then again you also accused me of being part of some sort of conspiracy with Dmitiri Young or SCP when I happened to join this board around the same time I bought the Molitor RC from that one....so who knows?

Again, these 2 sales are great for the hobby....nothing more