What about Early Walkers?

Walkerfan

We talked about the short set. I feel that MS 63/64/65 early walkers (1916-1933) are SCARCE and a good investment......how about you? What do you think? How will they perform down the road?

AMRC

I do believe there is some truly scarce stuff when compared to other series with some of the same characteristics, selling for higher prices. Of course survivability is always something to consider, but I think the factor here may be the collector base, or on the demand side of the equation.

MidLifeCrisis

Scarce is a relative term. Can you quantify what you mean?

E.g., R4 or R5?

Walkerfan

<< <i>Scarce is a relative term. Can you quantify what you mean?

E.g., R4 or R5? >>



Yes, that is right on, as many would be considered R4 & R5s

Walkerguy21D

<< <i> I feel that MS 63/64/65 early walkers (1916-1933) are SCARCE and a good investment >>


Many things to consider here....let's not get into strike and eye appeal, and MS63 vs- MS65 - just availability of coins meeting the
technical grade of all MS early date coins.....my SWAG, certainly you guys with the latest pop reports can critique this:

The 17P and 20P are somewhat common - R1/R2 perhaps?
R2/3 - the 16P and D, 18P, 18S, 29D, S, and 33S
R3 - 16S, 17D Obv, 17S Rev, 18D (R3+), 19P (R3+), 20S (R3+) 27S, 28S (R3+)
R4 - 17D Rev, 17S obv (R4+?), 19P (R4-?), 19S (R4+?), 21P, 23S
R5 - 19D, 20D, 21D
R6 - 21S

So, part of the problem is demand for these coins....if you aspire for a complete MS set, there are a few very difficult and expensive coins. This may actually hinder demand somewhat, as it may be more appealing (and affordable) to many to build a matching XF or AU set. But still there always has been and always will be a market for the early dates in MS - just not sure if they are a good investment, where 'good' to me means they will be worth considerably more X years from now. I would expect some dates to do fairly well, but probably not the majority of them.

Walkerguy21D

Boy, this thread sure died out quick.....I guess most of the members' expertise is with the short set dates

BillJones

<< <i>

<< <i>Scarce is a relative term. Can you quantify what you mean?

E.g., R4 or R5? >>



Yes, that is right on, as many would be considered R4 & R5s >>



The rare date like the 1921-S might be an R-4 or 5 in strict Mint State, but there is no way that it is that rare if you add the circulated coins to the total.

I agree that the early walkers are neat, but I don't know that I would want to attach the word "investment" to any coin, except in the bullion context. Some people might call bullion based purchases "speculative," but precious metals have been a store of wealth for a few thousand years.

crypto79

I agree with Bill, there is no such thing as a truly rare Walker by date or mintmark. There are a few that are scarce at best by condition but even then to use R6 or even R5 is crazy. What happens is a supply and demand effect where they seem rarer than they are because they are in collections with strong hands.

There are a few popular DDOs and what not that are truly rare

shorecoll

They are at least scarce. I have thought about putting a set together in slabbed XF and it's very difficult to find decent (or any) examples of the semi-keys. I have talked myself out of collecting them for that reason...even after I put together my VF+ Barber set.

crypto79

The rarest one (21s) has 275 coins graded at PCGS at the VF35 and above level. Around 100 in UNC, while not common that isn't that rare either and thats the stopper. The rub is there is a maket for 100x times that amount of coins if not more.

BillJones

<< <i>They are at least scarce. I have thought about putting a set together in slabbed XF and it's very difficult to find decent (or any) examples of the semi-keys. I have talked myself out of collecting them for that reason...even after I put together my VF+ Barber set. >>



These coins along with the Barber coins got killed during the Great Depression when very few people could afford to save coins for a collection. Many of the Mint State and Proof coins, that were in "strong hands," did survive, but not all. I remember a coin dealer from years past telling me about an original 1904 Proof set that he was offering. All of the coins were there except the silver dollar. It had been taken out an spent during the Depression when the owner was hard up and needed to put food on the table.

The "Great Depression affect" explains why these coins are mostly seen in Mint State or Good. No much in the in between grades was set aside.

Mowgli

While there might not be any "rare" early date Walkers, there are some dates that are very hard to find in XF-AU. I have been asked many times where a 1923-s could be found. According to my Walker book, it is considered an R-5 as is the 1919-D. When I upgraded my set last year, the 23-s XF was the first coin sold. I still do not consider them a good investment but definitely a challenging and fun set to put together in XF-AU.

Walkerguy21D

I thought the post was regarding coins grading MS63-65.....now suddenly we are including pops of VF coins, and calling them 'scarce at best'....
I guess if you need to change the parameters to fit your argument, you will never be wrong!

Ahrensdad

In my experience, early walker in AU or better are in great demand. Other posters have given good empirical data, mine is anecdotal.

Walkerfan

Certainly there are no uniquely rare pieces meaning only 4 or 5 examples BUT with many having total MS pops in just the 200-300-400 range and with near gems having only 100-200-300 examples they are TOUGH to say the very least. Gems are always rarer as the numbers drop off precipitately in MS 65. Compounded by the fact that MANY were messed with and have POOR strikes and other surface issues. I believe that a TRUE PQ MS example is a REALLY great if not rare find and the numbers for those coins are very slim.

breakdown

<< <i>

<< <i> I feel that MS 63/64/65 early walkers (1916-1933) are SCARCE and a good investment >>


Many things to consider here....let's not get into strike and eye appeal, and MS63 vs- MS65 - just availability of coins meeting the
technical grade of all MS early date coins.....my SWAG, certainly you guys with the latest pop reports can critique this:

The 17P and 20P are somewhat common - R1/R2 perhaps?
R2/3 - the 16P and D, 18P, 18S, 29D, S, and 33S
R3 - 16S, 17D Obv, 17S Rev, 18D (R3+), 19P (R3+), 20S (R3+) 27S, 28S (R3+)
R4 - 17D Rev, 17S obv (R4+?), 19P (R4-?), 19S (R4+?), 21P, 23S
R5 - 19D, 20D, 21D
R6 - 21S

So, part of the problem is demand for these coins....if you aspire for a complete MS set, there are a few very difficult and expensive coins. This may actually hinder demand somewhat, as it may be more appealing (and affordable) to many to build a matching XF or AU set. But still there always has been and always will be a market for the early dates in MS - just not sure if they are a good investment, where 'good' to me means they will be worth considerably more X years from now. I would expect some dates to do fairly well, but probably not the majority of them. >>



We need more threads on early Walkers! I like these estimates of condition rarity. My own personal experience is that a few dates are more difficult to find nice than the numbers suggest. The 18-D is generally a dog with a lot of abrasions. I am still looking for an 18-S that I like. I bought a nice 21-D from Legend a couple of years ago and have seen at least two others that I liked, which seems to go against others' experience. The 17-S Obverse is easily the most difficult to locate nice of the four sisters (the four mint-marked 17's). As for the 27-S, good luck finding a nice strike.

Good investment? Who knows -- collector demand thins out the higher you go and at least one highly graded set recently commanded fairly tepid sale prices. One little story I will mention is that the most I ever paid for a Walker was my 19-S, a decision I have never regretted. But it did give me pause when after the purchase, I read in the Fox reference about rumors of a 19-S hoard -- a bank bag of mint state coins. Gulp.

Okay, time for JBN to weigh in. He can tell us the pops and recent additions better than anyone.

Walkerguy21D

Good inputs, Breakdown!
Yes, I specifically kept strike and eye appeal out of my availability estimates of MS63-65 coins, which adds an addtional layer of complexity.
The 27S is an oddball - seems to be quite a few MS coins around, but most are poorly struck. A roll or two of these supposedly surfaced
~30 years ago. I recall seeing a number of MS coins around, but no AU's for my set back in the day.
Dave Bowers also mentions the 19S walkers in one of his books - American Coin Treasures and Hoards....I think an original bag was listed as
part of the 'inventory' from the Wells Fargo Hoard. However, I think I recall seeing later that the list was most likely bogus, as a lot of mythical items
were included in it.

rec78

I am not a big walker fan, but I do not think that you can go wrong with those dates. As with all coins it all depends on the collector base. The market will always be there, but who knows how strong the market will be in 10 years.


Bob

Nic

I think quality early Walkers are very tough to find and beautiful. Especially with original skin. Different animal than the post 33 issues.

K

oreville

<< <i>Boy, this thread sure died out quick.....I guess most of the members' expertise is with the short set dates >>



Hey, some of us are trying to finish the tax season!!!!

Walkerfan

Thanks, Walkerguy & Breakdown-----I can always count on your opinions regarding early Walkers. As with me, it is your specialty and you always add some good flavor to the conversation. I agree that this topic should be discussed more.

As for the 19-S hoard rumor, that has been going around for a LONG time (DECADES) and no such cache has ever been found or released. I am quite certain that it is a false rumor and you are quite safe in your 19-S investment. I have a lot into my 19-S, as well, (just like you do Breakdown), and I do not regret it for a moment. There is a decent one in the DALLAS auction tomorrow and the internet pre-bid is up to 10K already. A nice 64 will easily bring 10, 11 & 12K, consistently. A good 65 will cost about 16-18K and a 66 will bring almost 30K. NGC has certified a lone 67 and it is a pop ONE example. That coin has recently sold for over 30K and the current owner is now asking 50K or best offer!! I am happy with a good solid 64.

A VERY SMALL percentage of the MS survivors are well struck, un-abraded and with good surfaces----maybe 25% or even LESS. That is NOT very many coins, at all.

breakdown

Walkerfan and 21D -- great information on the 19-S "hoard." Thanks, guys.

ColonelJessup

<< <i>I think quality early Walkers are very tough to find and beautiful. Especially with original skin. Different animal than the post 33 issues.

K >>



+1

darktone

I remember selling a 20-D in a circulated grade on eBay about ten years ago or so. I estimated the grade in the VF range and it was a nice looking coin. I guess I was conservative in my grade because it went for AU money with several bidders. I was contacted by a few of the under bidders to buy the coin if the deal fell through. I never realized how hard it was to find these early dates in nice condition until this coin sale. Now I do!

Walkerfan

<< <i>I remember selling a 20-D in a circulated grade on eBay about ten years ago or so. I estimated the grade in the VF range and it was a nice looking coin. I guess I was conservative in my grade because it went for AU money with several bidders. I was contacted by a few of the under bidders to buy the coin if the deal fell through. I never realized how hard it was to find these early dates in nice condition until this coin sale. Now I do! >>



Yes the 20-D is SUPER Scarce and is ranked FIFTH in overall MS rarity---a lot of potential for profit on this coin. Good examples rarely crop up. I just got done watching the HA DALLAS auction. There were THREE 20-Ds in this auction--a 63 that sold for 5300 (smooth fields, full head but the thumb and branch stems were soft and incomplete in the obv. center), a 64 PLUS that had a flat head sold for an astonishing 8225 and a 65 went for 16500! The 20-D is one TOUGH issue!! I have seen only about 2 or 3 nice 64s in the last 4-5 years. They are in demand from VF/XF on up.