Sub $30 silver...here it comes again

piecesofme

Hope your powder is as dry as mine
50 day and 200 day moving average just about to cross. The only problem is, the last time it did it was 10 months of pain.

Timbuk3

!!!

jmski52

To my untrained eyes, it doesn't look like it's about to spike. Therefore, I say "buy".

rawteam1

it will be a false cross...

carew4me

beep...beep...beep

collectall

what happens in a cross pattern? this is new to me, any one willing to fill me in ?

derryb

<< <i>what happens in a cross pattern? this is new to me, any one willing to fill me in ? >>


Looking at PoM's SLV chart, the red 200 day moving avg. line crossed the blue 50 day moving avg. line late Oct. 2011 and again in Oct. 2012, on both occassions followed by a decline in price. Both avg. lines are close to crossing again. A cross at this point is probably not a reliable indicator for intermediate trend since on the first occasion it was a declining 50 day avg. and on the second occasion it was a rising 50 day avg. I do expect further price decline but I do not expect it to be brutal or lasting.

piecesofme

$39 to $27 in one year wasn't brutal? Sure, many stocks suffered worse losses in less timeframes, but we talk about metals here.
Ok, i'll agree with you, it wasn't brutal as you say derryb, but it was pain as I originally said.
And I'm fully aware that just because it happened once doesn't mean it'll happen this time...just simply making folks aware like collectall for example who say they are unfamiliar with this stuff.
rawteam1...you say it would be a false cross. I'm interested to here why iyo it would be.

slinc

Figures I buy 5 rolls of 2013 ASE's last week and they are already $28 a roll less right now. I've usually been pretty successful at timing selling not so much buying.

jmski52

Last year's chart looks like an average price for silver around $32. If you look at it like a savings plan, as an accumulator - the next few weeks might just be a good deal.




However, if you take a few steps back, there are other ways to interpret it:

1) It's a spike, and it could crash, run Forrest, run.

or,

2) It's only the foothills and it's gathering energy for a major crest in the not too distant future.




Or you might also take the attitude that government promises are made to be broken and that government paper is nothing more than their latest worthless promise.

We report, you decide.

derryb

<< <i>$39 to $27 in one year wasn't brutal? Sure, many stocks suffered worse losses in less timeframes, but we talk about metals here.
Ok, i'll agree with you, it wasn't brutal as you say derryb, but it was pain as I originally said.
And I'm fully aware that just because it happened once doesn't mean it'll happen this time...just simply making folks aware like collectall for example who say they are unfamiliar with this stuff.
rawteam1...you say it would be a false cross. I'm interested to here why iyo it would be. >>


Ya gptta start reading slower. Nowhere did i say a past drop was not brutal. What I said (read this slowly) was "I do expect further price decline but I do not expect it to be brutal or lasting."

DrBuster

I did just buy a new truck...

Cakes

I would like it to drop a tad under 30, maybe 28 to stack a little more but I already have a decent stash of silver and can't decide if I should go with an ounce of gold or platinum or any equal amount of silver.

renman95

Gold down $25+

tneig

I don't know if anyone predicts or questions a longer downturn in this sideways year, but this could just be today's low if that
so I'll make a lunch run to see if local supply is available. If anything a good price on 90%.

Everyone has been waiting for something to happen to change the sideways trend.

No surprise that with the market sustaining, more correction in PMs.
Since PMs have not been climbing or soaring as predicted, I see no reason for any rise in price now (until the market tumbles again).
A drop seems consistent or more likely for awhile. Movement of either side stirs up supply movement, eh?

More concerned about the government bleeding us dry on more charges.

derryb

partially due to dollar index strength. I don't expect the FED to allow that trend to continue in the ongoing currency battle to the bottom.

keep one eye on the dollar index

mhammerman

"A drop seems consistent or more likely for awhile."

Ahhhhhh...finally, a perfect storm...on it like a rash.

DrBuster

It is winter though too. Usually a slow/down time before the spring commodities focus.

tneig

Had to scale that chart out to 25 years and work in from there to 5 minutes, to help understand what you mean.



<< <i>partially due to dollar index strength. I don't expect the FED to allow that trend to continue in the ongoing currency battle to the bottom.

keep one eye on the dollar index >>

ricko

I would expect a springtime bump (April/May), but that is just based on prior activity.... so perhaps it is now a good time to pick up some silver. Cheers, RickO

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>Hope your powder is as dry as mine
50 day and 200 day moving average just about to cross. The only problem is, the last time it did it was 10 months of pain.

>>



It's only pain if you purchased when silver was $30 to $50. (not me).

Even then, if you're in for the long haul, you'll do just fine.

If you purchased below $30, then you have another great buying opportunity just like the good ole days.

All in all, it's a wonderful day to be invested in Silver

piecesofme

If you purchased below $30, then you have another great buying opportunity

Exactly the point of my inital post. The 2 ma's that matter are about to cross and when that happens, it's usually a good time to add a little.
And just because Spot is declining, don't expect what sellers will ask for physical to to follow suit. It only means the premiums will spread further apart.

carew4me

<< <i>If you purchased below $30, then you have another great buying opportunity

Exactly the point of my inital post. The 2 ma's that matter are about to cross and when that happens, it's usually a good time to add a little.
And just because Spot is declining, don't expect what sellers will ask for physical to to follow suit. It only means the premiums will spread further apart. >>



Two statements seem to conflict:

-you have another great buying opportunity
-don't expect what sellers will ask for physical to to follow suit. It only means the premiums will spread further apart.

piecesofme

The key word is opportunity to possibly get some on the cheap.
With a flat market as it's been for a little while now, less opportunity.
Surprised I would have to explain this to veteran such as yourself.

fishcooker

It's important to know your markets. That way you'll know if a 50/200 cross is meaningful.

Wingsrule

I see the first cross roughly late Oct / early Nov 2011. I see the cross back up in Oct 2012. SLV was right around $34 at both of these crosses. Not much pain.

cohodk

<< <i>I see the first cross roughly late Oct / early Nov 2011. I see the cross back up in Oct 2012. SLV was right around $34 at both of these crosses. Not much pain. >>




Third time's a charm?

piecesofme

I see the first cross roughly late Oct / early Nov 2011. I see the cross back up in Oct 2012. SLV was right around $34 at both of these crosses. Not much pain.

So if you had bought in Oct. '11 and being down for a year was ok with you? and the fact that that money was tied up, essentially making it dead money, and you're ok with that?
I know it's all purely hypothetical but I commend you bro, you have more patience for that year than I will ever have in a lifetime.

Justacommeman

<< <i>I see the first cross roughly late Oct / early Nov 2011. I see the cross back up in Oct 2012. SLV was right around $34 at both of these crosses. Not much pain.

So if you had bought in Oct. '11 and being down for a year was ok with you? and the fact that that money was tied up, essentially making it dead money, and you're ok with that?
I know it's all purely hypothetical but I commend you bro, you have more patience for that year than I will ever have in a lifetime. >>



I doubt he has everything tied up in sliver so your reply doesn't really apply. Ask him how he did in any stocks he held during the same time period. Not all parts of a port go up or down in unison. Not everything works at the same time. For someone with a longer term horizon and conviction they don't sweat the small stuff. 95% of those that try to time the market go bust. I've seen it first hand. MJ

piecesofme

MJ...re-read my reply to Wings. You will find that I am asking him the question only if he had bought in around Oct. '11. Another example of once again, someone doesn't read the WHOLE post.

johnny9434

maybe its time to stock up on some if you can find it.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>If you purchased below $30, then you have another great buying opportunity

Exactly the point of my inital post. The 2 ma's that matter are about to cross and when that happens, it's usually a good time to add a little.
And just because Spot is declining, don't expect what sellers will ask for physical to to follow suit. It only means the premiums will spread further apart. >>



Checked with my source in Toronto on Friday and silver bars are selling currently at his usual mark-up.

Went to a coin show here in Toronto and 1 ounce silver bars selling at $32 to $35 each.

1 oz silver Maples at $35 to $36 each.

The 1 oz silver Wolves are selling for $65 to $70 each (why some crazy people pay premiums for bullion is beyond me).

Wingsrule

you have more patience for that year than I will ever have in a lifetime.

I still own the silver I bought in Oct 2011. And the stuff from six months before, and the stuff from six months after. My horizon, in this case, is quite long.

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>If you purchased below $30, then you have another great buying opportunity

Exactly the point of my inital post. The 2 ma's that matter are about to cross and when that happens, it's usually a good time to add a little.
And just because Spot is declining, don't expect what sellers will ask for physical to to follow suit. It only means the premiums will spread further apart. >>



Checked with my source in Toronto on Friday and silver bars are selling currently at his usual mark-up.

Went to a coin show here in Toronto and 1 ounce silver bars selling at $32 to $35 each.

1 oz silver Maples at $35 to $36 each.

The 1 oz silver Wolves are selling for $65 to $70 each (why some crazy people pay premiums for bullion is beyond me). >>



The more scared you are the more willing you are to pay up. Fear usually leads to bad decisions

jmski52

Well, I think that it's legit to say the POM called it right this time around. Congrats!

tneig

Updated chart available?

Got 3 sealed ASEs at the pawn shop at lunch for $31.3. Good priced supply is dry...

piecesofme

Updated chart available?

Realistically, I only care about the past 6 months when charting, so to initally post a 2 year chart was really a stretch for me, but it was done to show that over 2 years your money that was tied up in metals was basically flat (or dead) over that time period if all you did with your metals was hold.

So here's a 6 month chart to show what one would've lost if bought 6 months ago and just held to now.


As you can see in both charts, there were plenty "opportunites" to buy low and sell higher if one would've choosen to do so Proving that if all you do is only buy over these time periods (I don't care if you bought 10 years ago, if you did kudos to you...that was a totally different market and world for that matter) your money invested was either dead or you lost.
On the contrary, if you timed your buys only 25% into the complete move (which isn't that hard to do) before it turned, you did well...and realized the cash you may have wanted to buy the things you really wanted.
In my case that I have clearly stated since I've been here, buying...to sell...to buy the premium silver I'm addicted to...but purchased primarly with profits.

And before someone accuses me of it...NO, I am not bragging and I hope this helps to understand how I go about my business. I hope what you do works just as well for you.

piecesofme

...and the beat(down) goes on. When it'll stop nobody knows.

Baley

too bad most of the charts are deleted.. it's hard to figure out what some folks were talking about, in reference to the charts that are no longer there.

Justacommeman

<< <i>too bad most of the charts are deleted.. it's hard to figure out what some folks were talking about, in reference to the charts that are no longer there. >>



Every sunken ship had a chart as well................MJ

Baley

<< <i>
Every sunken ship had a chart as well................MJ >>



Not every one; some were just going by what they read on the interweb

cohodk

There are probably a lot more ships above water than below.

Most sunken ships are caused by human error, not bad charts. If one cannot read charts maybe they shouldn't be sailing.

derryb

<< <i>There are probably a lot more ships above water than below.

Most sunken ships are caused by human error, not bad charts. If one cannot read charts maybe they shouldn't be sailing. >>


Most sunken ships occured pre-1900 and were a result of too much dependence on inaccurate charts and not enough dependence on accurate weather forecasting. Then there's the problem of uncharted territory, sorta like where the FED has led our economy today.

cohodk

Hats off to all those captains over the centuries that successfully navigated treacherous, unchartered waters, many of whom have geographical areas named after them.