<< <i>Coin collecting is returning to its status as the "hobby of kings".
The peasantry has no money for such pursuits. >>
We (I am definitely among the peasantry, by any reasonable standard) still have money to collect things at low levels, or perish forbid, even coins out of daily change -- but there are some who scuttle within ivory towers that wouldn't consider that to be "really" coin collecting. So, everyone can be happy in the correctness of their outlooks.
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow.
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow. >>
Then I guess I have that to look forward to, because my 401(k) is in good shape, as is my job, and I don't buy lotto tickets. Let's say, 35-40 years away from retirement (with any luck.) But strangely, nope, I just don't see the 15K or so market for me, or the vast majority of people expanding -- for money is dear, and frivolous delicacies in the range of 15K and up don't make a lick of sense if you have even 50-100K of true liquidity; too much money tied up at too much risk. If one has a million in liquid assets that are quite disposable? Then sure, go nuts. It's not gonna be for me.
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
>>
Why, utter nonsense. Just ask telephoto1 and those who think the same; lose a high-paying job? Why, just be humble for awhile and presto, before you know it you'll find yourself in a new 6-figure job; no worries at all! Why don't they just eat cake? Duh!
This is a very interesting question. I find the current societal changes fascinating, albeit depressing. Even more fascinating is the corollary that can easily be fit to the difference in wealth (rich versus poor) and the bifurcation in the coin market (Andy's best versus rest). A third corollary would be wage growth by quintiles of the population. That is somewhat of a derivative of the wealth gap of course (or vice versa), but it is important to consider as well.
I don't think too many economists would disagree with the premise that we are, and have been in, an inflationary cycle since the great Depression and that a parabolic rise began starting around 1983 or so. Inflation, or one definition of it, is too much money chasing too few goods. Because of MANY reasons, most of the inflationary induced growth in wealth has taken place at the top. BTW, this happens during most late stage inflation cycles, or Kondratief autumns.
Was going to make this much longer, but time is not on my side. Bottom line: Mathematics tells us that it is impossible to continue an exponential function indefinitely. There WILL be a bust to the inflationary cycle. The only question is how much of a pull back, and more importantly, when.
The wealthy will generally not sell into weakness, but even rich people die and coins get sold despite economic staying power, so those coins could realize depreciation in that scenario.
Unfortunately, both inflationary and deflationary environments hurt the poor more than the rich. So the impact to "the rest" will be worse than "the best", when the reset comes, at least at the beginning. Any reset is usually followed by slow expansion, and eventually rapid expansion, so after some two or three generations after the reset, I would expect "the rest" to catch up some, as the expansion is usually more equitable after a deflationary collapse. Inflationary collapses are usually quite ugly and associated with political revolutionary changes..so I won't begin to guess about those. I don't think we will care much about coins either way if that happens.
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
>>
Why, utter nonsense. Just ask telephoto1 and those who think the same; lose a high-paying job? Why, just be humble for awhile and presto, before you know it you'll find yourself in a new 6-figure job; no worries at all! Why don't they just eat cake? Duh! >>
I guess I missed the part where I said this happens by magic or overnight. People lose jobs all the time; I never said nor did I infer otherwise...in fact the current unemployment numbers are cooked like an overdone hamburger to hide the real numbers. I'm just saying that despite the current situation, people who are smart and responsible with their money could conceivably afford the coins you seem so convinced are out of reach at some point. If you do some simple math, a 7 digit retirement fund is within reach of someone making an average salary- properly invested over time, that is.
The current trend of squeezing out the middle class by wasting natural resources is unsustainable.
Even if peo[ple don't wake up and demand that GE makes a refrigerator light that lasts more than a year or demand competition be allowed, we don't have enough resources to continually waste making cheap and defective products. Everything will implode taking the bonuses at GE with it.
You can't fool mother nature. There's always an accounting.
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow. >>
Then I guess I have that to look forward to, because my 401(k) is in good shape, as is my job, and I don't buy lotto tickets. Let's say, 35-40 years away from retirement (with any luck.) But strangely, nope, I just don't see the 15K or so market for me, or the vast majority of people expanding -- for money is dear, and frivolous delicacies in the range of 15K and up don't make a lick of sense if you have even 50-100K of true liquidity; too much money tied up at too much risk. If one has a million in liquid assets that are quite disposable? Then sure, go nuts. It's not gonna be for me. >>
I believe you fail to remember that I read here that many members over the year will buy 15 -30 coins, what if instead of buying lets say 40 on the ave $250 coins and just buy uno $10k coin, then you are getting close to your mark that you state you will never hit. For some reason and for some people they say they will never spend $10k to $15k on a coin but will pay above that on the aggregate with many smaller purchases. think about it, I have only 3 boxes of 20, while many here have 250- 500-1000 coins or more. It is just the simple quality over quantity topic but for the addiction it is hard to resist quantity buying. >>
You and realone both make good points, in fact I could probably consolidate what I've collected over my life so far, into one 15K coin (for sake of argument) but to do so doesn't interest me. In that sense I am going against the grain and logic of whittling down and going for a box of 20, or one very special item, or the like. As to retiring with a 7-figure digit to my name, I certainly do hope so, and am doing my best, and my financial calculators and advisor, all say I "will" but I'm not counting my chickens. FWIW what will a million really "be" in 30 years time, anyway. Still and all, at the end of it, a 15K-type item (in today's dollars) will remain out of reach for me by my own choice, as I feel that's too much for one "thing" for me. I do wish that it didn't have to be so, but it is what it is.
Every little pisher who takes up coin collecting wants to own an 1804 dollar. Buy only a few will ever have the money and the opportunity to compete for one. At that top tier, it only takes a few deep pockets to drive the price. So even if collecting as whole experiences a decline in overall popularity, the truly rare coins, especially those carry their own prestige, should continue to bring big bucks.
For the rest of the “stuff” out there, who knows. Whenever I look at auction after auction, year after year, with coin after coin selling for thousands or tens of thousands of dollars I keep asking myself “who is buying all of this?” Where is all of that money coming from? It does not take a big crowd to prop up the price for pop 1 or 2 coins. But how many people are really putting together mint state sets of seated or Barber coins to support the price structure for coins in low to mid-MS grades?
As for the future? The baby boomers are approaching retirement age, a period when most people start thinking about selling not buying. If the baby boomers outlive their savings, and if social security and medicare benefits are cut, the financial burden of maintaining millions of 80 year old baby boomers will fall on their kids. Coins may need to be sold to buy Depends and Ensure for mom and dad. A lot of “stuff” could hit the market. Some of those “key dates” like 16-D dimes and 01-S quarters in common grades may not be the “key” to anything anymore.
In shorter-term events, the best of the best will generally be held off the market in a down turn or the coins will not meet reserve. But as we saw in the 09 Central States sale, not even rarities are immune from six figure price declines. The other stuff that comes to market because it needs to be sold will also sell for weak prices. At the bottom end, if a $150 coin sells for $145 is anyone really going to care?
Comments
The peasantry has no money for such pursuits.
<< <i>Coin collecting is returning to its status as the "hobby of kings".
The peasantry has no money for such pursuits. >>
We (I am definitely among the peasantry, by any reasonable standard) still have money to collect things at low levels, or perish forbid, even coins out of daily change -- but there are some who scuttle within ivory towers that wouldn't consider that to be "really" coin collecting. So, everyone can be happy in the correctness of their outlooks.
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
<< <i>
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow. >>
Then I guess I have that to look forward to, because my 401(k) is in good shape, as is my job, and I don't buy lotto tickets. Let's say, 35-40 years away from retirement (with any luck.) But strangely, nope, I just don't see the 15K or so market for me, or the vast majority of people expanding -- for money is dear, and frivolous delicacies in the range of 15K and up don't make a lick of sense if you have even 50-100K of true liquidity; too much money tied up at too much risk. If one has a million in liquid assets that are quite disposable? Then sure, go nuts. It's not gonna be for me.
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
Why, utter nonsense. Just ask telephoto1 and those who think the same; lose a high-paying job? Why, just be humble for awhile and presto, before you know it you'll find yourself in a new 6-figure job; no worries at all! Why don't they just eat cake? Duh!
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I don't think too many economists would disagree with the premise that we are, and have been in, an inflationary cycle since the great Depression and that a parabolic rise began starting around 1983 or so. Inflation, or one definition of it, is too much money chasing too few goods. Because of MANY reasons, most of the inflationary induced growth in wealth has taken place at the top. BTW, this happens during most late stage inflation cycles, or Kondratief autumns.
Was going to make this much longer, but time is not on my side. Bottom line: Mathematics tells us that it is impossible to continue an exponential function indefinitely. There WILL be a bust to the inflationary cycle. The only question is how much of a pull back, and more importantly, when.
The wealthy will generally not sell into weakness, but even rich people die and coins get sold despite economic staying power, so those coins could realize depreciation in that scenario.
Unfortunately, both inflationary and deflationary environments hurt the poor more than the rich. So the impact to "the rest" will be worse than "the best", when the reset comes, at least at the beginning. Any reset is usually followed by slow expansion, and eventually rapid expansion, so after some two or three generations after the reset, I would expect "the rest" to catch up some, as the expansion is usually more equitable after a deflationary collapse. Inflationary collapses are usually quite ugly and associated with political revolutionary changes..so I won't begin to guess about those. I don't think we will care much about coins either way if that happens.
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>My perception is that the middle class is getting pounded and will continue to be pounded. What is killing them is the weak job market. Sure, the unemployment numbers might be going down, but that is deceptive. Are the formerly unemployed getting jobs that pay like the ones they lost or are they settling for less? How many people are leaving the job market and therefore not counted among the unemployed? Finally I don't see people getting raises the way they used to get, which means they have less disposable income for luxuries like coins.
The bottom line is "stuff" is going to stagnate. The people used to buy it just can't afford to buy as much of it any more. Really nice material will hold its own or get more expensive. And yes, I see a bigger gap forming between the rich and the middle class and poor. This country is going to look like a lot of countries do in South America, a few very wealthy people and a lot of other people with little chance of really getting ahead. That is the price you pay for wealth and income redistribution policies. >>
Why, utter nonsense. Just ask telephoto1 and those who think the same; lose a high-paying job? Why, just be humble for awhile and presto, before you know it you'll find yourself in a new 6-figure job; no worries at all! Why don't they just eat cake? Duh! >>
I guess I missed the part where I said this happens by magic or overnight. People lose jobs all the time; I never said nor did I infer otherwise...in fact the current unemployment numbers are cooked like an overdone hamburger to hide the real numbers. I'm just saying that despite the current situation, people who are smart and responsible with their money could conceivably afford the coins you seem so convinced are out of reach at some point. If you do some simple math, a 7 digit retirement fund is within reach of someone making an average salary- properly invested over time, that is.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
Even if peo[ple don't wake up and demand that GE makes a refrigerator light that lasts more than a year
or demand competition be allowed, we don't have enough resources to continually waste making cheap
and defective products. Everything will implode taking the bonuses at GE with it.
You can't fool mother nature. There's always an accounting.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I LOL (strongly!) at the thought of paying $15K and up for a coin as a "growth market." It will be so only for the 1%'ers. Most normal people (that's the other 99% of us) consider spending $20 to $100 on a coin a luxury, and to spend $500 on a coin will either get you in trouble with your spouse, or have to be a long, thought-out, scrimp and save process. I haven't spent close to $500 on a coin in many, many years (not counting bullion) and don't ever expect to, for years, years and more years to come.
Most people aren't hedge fund managers -- most people are very happy with their cheapie Mercs and Walkers (if those designs interest them) at $5 to $50 a pop, thank you very much -- and that's where the vast majority of people will stay.
The uber-wealthy can worry about their particular flavor of cake, and decide where best to put that spare $50,000 to $200,000 -- the vast majority will never have the luxury of such "problems." >>
You don't have to be a hedge fund manager to buy a $15K coin; you just have to be smart with your money. A retiree who's worked a $50-70K job all his life and via sensible investment like 401K and good growth mutual funds has managed his money well could easily have a 7 digit net worth. That's not "uber-wealthy", and it's enough that he might want to pick up a $15K coin or two. You'd be surprised how many people you know are technically worth enough to be able to afford something like that. A good friend of mine had landed an engineering job at GM before the bloodletting began... he got canned and ended up short selling his house at a huge loss, moving back home and living in his parents' basement with his wife and daughter. Today he has a $100K job with a heavy equipment manufacturer and projects he'll have a nice 7-digit retirement, maybe better. And there are plenty more like him out there...so yes, I agree that the $15k-up market will expand.
The "poor me, I can't get a break, I'll never have what they have" crowd who define "rich" as anyone making more than they do... you're likely right; they won't buy such items because they'd rather go buy lotto tickets than put that money in a mutual fund. But despite what some of the 99% vs. 1% political propagandists might have us believe, the middle class isn't going broke just yet- not the smart ones anyhow. >>
Then I guess I have that to look forward to, because my 401(k) is in good shape, as is my job, and I don't buy lotto tickets. Let's say, 35-40 years away from retirement (with any luck.) But strangely, nope, I just don't see the 15K or so market for me, or the vast majority of people expanding -- for money is dear, and frivolous delicacies in the range of 15K and up don't make a lick of sense if you have even 50-100K of true liquidity; too much money tied up at too much risk. If one has a million in liquid assets that are quite disposable? Then sure, go nuts. It's not gonna be for me. >>
I believe you fail to remember that I read here that many members over the year will buy 15 -30 coins, what if instead of buying lets say 40 on the ave $250 coins and just buy uno $10k coin, then you are getting close to your mark that you state you will never hit. For some reason and for some people they say they will never spend $10k to $15k on a coin but will pay above that on the aggregate with many smaller purchases. think about it, I have only 3 boxes of 20, while many here have 250- 500-1000 coins or more. It is just the simple quality over quantity topic but for the addiction it is hard to resist quantity buying. >>
You and realone both make good points, in fact I could probably consolidate what I've collected over my life so far, into one 15K coin (for sake of argument) but to do so doesn't interest me. In that sense I am going against the grain and logic of whittling down and going for a box of 20, or one very special item, or the like. As to retiring with a 7-figure digit to my name, I certainly do hope so, and am doing my best, and my financial calculators and advisor, all say I "will" but I'm not counting my chickens. FWIW what will a million really "be" in 30 years time, anyway. Still and all, at the end of it, a 15K-type item (in today's dollars) will remain out of reach for me by my own choice, as I feel that's too much for one "thing" for me. I do wish that it didn't have to be so, but it is what it is.
The more things change, the more they remain the same.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
For the rest of the “stuff” out there, who knows. Whenever I look at auction after auction, year after year, with coin after coin selling for thousands or tens of thousands of dollars I keep asking myself “who is buying all of this?” Where is all of that money coming from? It does not take a big crowd to prop up the price for pop 1 or 2 coins. But how many people are really putting together mint state sets of seated or Barber coins to support the price structure for coins in low to mid-MS grades?
As for the future? The baby boomers are approaching retirement age, a period when most people start thinking about selling not buying. If the baby boomers outlive their savings, and if social security and medicare benefits are cut, the financial burden of maintaining millions of 80 year old baby boomers will fall on their kids. Coins may need to be sold to buy Depends and Ensure for mom and dad. A lot of “stuff” could hit the market. Some of those “key dates” like 16-D dimes and 01-S quarters in common grades may not be the “key” to anything anymore.
In shorter-term events, the best of the best will generally be held off the market in a down turn or the coins will not meet reserve. But as we saw in the 09 Central States sale, not even rarities are immune from six figure price declines. The other stuff that comes to market because it needs to be sold will also sell for weak prices. At the bottom end, if a $150 coin sells for $145 is anyone really going to care?
CG