Royal Canadian Mint Royal Canadian Mint Hits Silver Supply Shortage

Wolf359

Confirming this strain on physical silver supplies, just this morning the RCM (Royal Canadian Mint) went on allocation, limiting the quantity of sales of the popular silver maple leaf coin. So now the silver shortage has spread across the continent. Both dealers and wholesalers are reporting that the supply on maple leaf silver coins is now weeks backlogged.

Royal Canadian Mint Hits Silver Supply Shortage, Limits Dealer Allocation

JohnnyCache

Thanks for the link.

Is it an unexpected increase in demand we are seeing or is there, for some unknow and unexplained reason, a true shortage?

A real shortage seems unlikely to me but we keep getting these wisps of info that suggest something more than simply just more demand. I think particularly when you see the (main stream) media continually talk about is how everything is slowly moving towards recovery.

And if things are truly getting better, which I don't feel they are, wouldn't we see some small blips in copper.

jmski52

Does anyone else find all this somewhat odd? Demand, it seems has escalated and supply can't keep up. I'll be the first to say that I don't know why the price hasn't reacted accordingly.

Even so, it does seem bullish for the price.

carew4me

Nothing to see here...move along

Pokermandude

<< <i>Does anyone else find all this somewhat odd? Demand, it seems has escalated and supply can't keep up. I'll be the first to say that I don't know why the price hasn't reacted accordingly.

Even so, it does seem bullish for the price. >>



The spot price has been increasing pretty consistently this month. Premiums have also increased since December, especially on Maples I have noticed. I can't even order a monster box online for spot+$3 any more in Canada. Used to be able to get them for about spot+$2.50.

cohodk

<< <i>Does anyone else find all this somewhat odd? Demand, it seems has escalated and supply can't keep up. I'll be the first to say that I don't know why the price hasn't reacted accordingly.

Even so, it does seem bullish for the price. >>



Because prices always react to expected fundamentals. Expectations have been met.

jmski52

Expectations have been met.

I would say that expectations have been exceeded, because I don't think that the US Mint and the Canadian Mint were both planning to run out of inventory so quickly. Do you? That's why I don't understand why the price is not reacting more so.


The spot price has been increasing pretty consistently this month. Premiums have also increased since December, especially on Maples I have noticed. I can't even order a monster box online for spot+$3 any more in Canada. Used to be able to get them for about spot+$2.50.

I hadn't been paying too much attention, Pmd - but this is good information, and it does seem consistant with a high demand scenario. It's really anyone's guess about supply at this point.

Wolf359

<< <i>Expectations have been met.

I would say that expectations have been exceeded, because I don't think that the US Mint and the Canadian Mint were both planning to run out of inventory so quickly. Do you? That's why I don't understand why the price is not reacting more so.


The spot price has been increasing pretty consistently this month. Premiums have also increased since December, especially on Maples I have noticed. I can't even order a monster box online for spot+$3 any more in Canada. Used to be able to get them for about spot+$2.50.

I hadn't been paying too much attention, Pmd - but this is good information, and it does seem consistant with a high demand scenario. It's really anyone's guess about supply at this point. >>



Physical Silver on eBay will be selling at $100 an ounce while COMEX will never exceed $35 or so. COMEX is rigged, controlled by software.

Also, there seems to a lot of unusual production delays in new smartphones and computer tablets. Unexplained delays like the Nexus 4 with "supply issues" because of unforeseen demand. Very interesting. Bears watching.

DoubleEagle59

I'll call my PM contact in Toronto and ask him if there's a shortage.

He orders 1000 oz bars all the time.

I haven't spoken to him in about 4 months so I'll report back here tomorrow.

Baley

Perhaps the market is not confusing "supply shortage of silver ready to coin into this year's collector coins"

with

"supply shortage of silver"

which there is not one of, as there is plenty of silver above ground.

Much of it is in the form of last year's collector coins

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>Does anyone else find all this somewhat odd? Demand, it seems has escalated and supply can't keep up. I'll be the first to say that I don't know why the price hasn't reacted accordingly.

Even so, it does seem bullish for the price. >>



The spot price has been increasing pretty consistently this month. Premiums have also increased since December, especially on Maples I have noticed. I can't even order a monster box online for spot+$3 any more in Canada. Used to be able to get them for about spot+$2.50. >>



Wow...all the way from $30.50 to $32 ............obviously no shortage of silver, but only temp. shortage of silver blanks used in coinage. It won't take long for the refiners to gear up to meet demands.

derryb

my shoe shine guy advised me today to buy silver.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

100 oz bars at Provident were available $1 per ounce over spot earlier today. I will pay attention when the premium on 100 oz bars escalates.

Until then I don't see a shortage of silver.

newnotes

my shoe shine guy advised me today to buy silver.


LOL! Crash coming?

newnotes

There can't be too much of a shortage of silver. They just put up 250,000 20 for 20 Hockey coins for sale. Will probably be the fastest sellout of this series ever.

DoubleEagle59

Called my TO contact and no shortage in silver 1 oz rounds, 100 oz or 1000 oz bars.

derryb

Tulving has boxes of new ASEs back in stock. Premium went from 2.59 to 2.99 per coin. Look for premiums over paper to increase, not because of a silver shortage - it is a paper abundance.

Wolf359

<< <i>Called my TO contact and no shortage in silver 1 oz rounds, 100 oz or 1000 oz bars. >>



Of course not. What a loaded question you asked. The shortage is when you want to purchase and take delivery of a million ounces or more RIGHT NOW. You can get it, but you have to wait, it won't be RIGHT NOW. It will be
weeks to months.

jmski52

Look for premiums over paper to increase, not because of a silver shortage - it is a paper abundance.

derryb, you make sense. Considering the overall small percentage of people who actually own physical metal vs. the amount of imaginary money being created - it doesn't take much change in perception about the deterioration in the value of the dollar to impact the silver or even the gold markets.

As Jim Sinclair continues to point out, the Fed deals in perception. The issue isn't money creation per se, it's whether or not the Fed can continue to maintain the perception that everything is fine. Their biggest concern, I think - is that too many smart people are too aware that the problems aren't going away, and not that the problems aren't being addressed.

In a nutshell, they worry much more about perceptions than they do about solving the problems.

Baley

the fluctuating "premium" for ASEs and Maples is due to fluctuating numismatic sentiment in the physical market?

derryb

the rising physical premium is a direct result of increasing value being placed on physical vs. paper promise. As the supply of paper promises increases without actual physical increases to back them market participants are starting to realize that counterparty risk on that paper is also increasing. Unbacked paper promises are nothing short of a market derivative. Ask AIG about the risk in derivatives.

One good way to keep a lid on the price of something is to increase the number of promises that have a claim to it.

razzle

"Markets can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent" as my broker reminds me. Silver is a classic example. Demand increases, price goes down?? Below are some quotes from Ed Steer's newsletter today. He doesn't have to be right, but it is the only way the silver market makes any sense to me. I think for these 8 firms to be able to do this, it must be with the explicit or implicit approval of the fed or central banks in order to maintain orderly markets and dollar values. The issue of the "rigging", if that is what it is, goes back to court again.


<< <i>Silver's net short position jumped a huge 5,366 contracts, or 26.8 million troy ounces of paper silver, so it was obvious that JPMorgan et al had to aggressively sell this market short to prevent the price from blowing out to the upside during the reporting week. >>




<< <i>The 'Big 8' have added seven days of world silver production to their short positions since last week's update. >>


In finishing todays notes he adds,

<< <i>As I've said many times...the end game for JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia et al have only three possible outcomes that I can see. They can cover and drive precious metal prices to the moon...and get bailed out. They can stand back and get over run...and then get bailed out as prices blast off to the moon...or they can close the Comex in these markets and render their futures contracts [long and short] null and void. My vote is with the last option. >>

derryb

Per ETF Daily News:

Kitco Senior Analyst John Nadler at Kitco said in a video interview that there are 207 million ounces of surplus silver overhanging the markets. “…it’s fairly sizable and it is a quantity that needs to be absorbed in one way or another either by ETFs or by physical purchases or else we will have a price problem.”

Referring to the suspended sales of U.S. Silver Eagle coins, Nadler said,”…there is absolutely no shortage of material to make these types of coins. It’s simply a question of fabrication capacity.”

jmski52

I think for these 8 firms to be able to do this, it must be with the explicit or implicit approval of the fed or central banks in order to maintain orderly markets and dollar values. The issue of the "rigging", if that is what it is, goes back to court again.

As Sinclair points out regularly about gold, and this is true for silver as well - these same firms will be on the long side when it's to their advantage, after a capitulation. One of the best reasons for owning silver is that the market is thin enough for a supply shortage to become obvious. When it becomes obvious, the value will be realized whatever else occurs.


John Nadler at Kitco said in a video interview that there are 207 million ounces of surplus silver overhanging the markets. “…it’s fairly sizable and it is a quantity that needs to be absorbed in one way or another either by ETFs or by physical purchases or else we will have a price problem.”

Referring to the suspended sales of U.S. Silver Eagle coins, Nadler said,”…there is absolutely no shortage of material to make these types of coins. It’s simply a question of fabrication capacity.”

I hope that Kitco doesn't go out of business following Nadler's advice, because I find their website to be useful. He's one of my canaries in the coal mine. If he was ever right about anything, he'd be dangerous.

razzle

derryb, Nadler seems confident in the fiat currencies and seems to be bearish on both gold and silver. Although it's very difficult in this info age to determine who is shill and who is helpful in the PM markets, it is difficult to have any confidence in his opinions here .
Nadler, 1/25 article
I have enjoyed your insightful posts, and I like jmski's point about the apparent thin-ness of the silver market.