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Investment of 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan

So as I have gotten back into the world of collecting/investing, one card on my list that has proven to be elusive at the price I set to pay is the PSA 9 1986 Fleer Jordan Rookie Card. My question to everyone is what you all think of the long term potential of this holding it's value.

All you hear about how incredibly rare 1986 Fleer is, yet the population report shows 13,302 total Jordans and 2,096 9's. The Montana RC, perhaps the Football equivalent of the Jordan, has half the 9's at 1,113 and is also about a quarter of the price. The Bird/Magic RC has 444 and is a little less than the Jordan. I also think there will be less Montana's and Bird/Magic's graded in the future than the Jordan.

The thing that hurts the 86F, despite it's perceived rarity, is when you open a box, you can expect 3-5 Jordans, as opposed to 1 Montana or Bird/Magic in the other boxes. And the Jordan RC really isn't tough to find Mint. If you pull one, you actually have a decent shot at a 9, whereas the Bird/Magic and even Montana is much tougher.

While I want the Jordan RC for my collection, I think we see the PSA 9 start to drop where the Bird/Magic and Montana should just increase....what are everyone's thoughts?

Also, I'd be curious to see if anyone has tracked how many Jordan 9's there were a year ago vs. Montana and Bird/Magic?
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Comments

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have never heard the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan referred to as incredibly rare.

    The reason this card has held up well is Michael Jordan is universally loved and if you were to ask almost any collector would you like to own the card that is designated his rookie card there would be an overwhelming yes.

    In my opinion you are over thinking the numbers as the size of the pool of available buyers is much larger for a Jordan rookie then a Magic/Bird for example.

    In the past six months there was a massive spike in the population of the 1982 Topps Traded Cal Ripken in PSA 10. If we were going by numbers alone the price should have fallen significantly for that card and it didn't. Four sharp corners was the submitter and they sold a large amount for $1,399 on EBAY.

    If we just used over all population numbers to determine price there are a lot of cards that would be drastically more valuable but you need a deep pool of buyers and the Jordan rookie card has that. It is the definition of a liquid card.

    You saw a sharp move higher in the 86 Fleer a few months back but it fizzled pretty quick as new cards came to market. I think the Jordan card is range bound at current levels and that is very impressive with how easy it is to find the card in any grade from both PSA and BGS.

    If you want to invest in Jordan cards clearly the area that has been the most explosive are the 90's insert cards and more rare examples such as the 1985 Prism. The run that these have had is quite impressive and obviously as the price has moved higher so has the risk from a purely investment standpoint.

    If you are looking to buy a Jordan I would suggest buying one for personal satisfaction and not investment.
  • itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    Mike will always be popular. his fame transcends his game. there are countless people who never even saw him dribble a ball and think he's the sh!zn!t. there's no perceived rarity, it's just that a whole lotta people want his card.

    even if you're only investing in the Fleer RC you should feel comfortable with its stability regardless of market availability. there did seem to be a brief period recently when the PSA 9 value spiked, due to some very spirited bidding on a few auctions, but it's settled again.

    opening a box is no guarantee, either, as evidenced by the hoards of off-centered examples being offered for sale every day.

    find a 9 which meets your criteria and go after it.
  • halosfanhalosfan Posts: 2,611 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm still needing a 9 ...
    Looking for a Glen Rice Inkredible and Alex Rodriguez cards
  • ClockworkAngelClockworkAngel Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭
    Yes, I understand your points. There is collecting and there is investing. I try to do both and try to buy cards that I not only want for my collection, but think will be a good buy, and this is one I struggle with.

    You are right, Jordan is arguable the most popular athlete ever. It's all about supply and demand and there is a huge demand for Jordans. I am just saying how many can afford $1500 for a 9 and as more and more pop on eBay will we see a dip?

    The collecting part of it goes without saying, my question is more geared towards investing. Funny you bring up the Ripken. I also think that card will see a drop based on how many 10's exist...though they're still being gobbled up!
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  • digicatdigicat Posts: 8,551 ✭✭
    How has the PSA 9 Jordan RC done over the past 10 years? Has it gone up? Has it kept up with inflation?
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  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am not positive but I think a PSA 9 in the early days of grading was a $2,500+ card. I am sure there are a few board members that can chime in and confirm.

    If so then it has been a poor performing investment. If you factor in opportunity cost it would have been a really poor investment.




  • Jordan is a worldwide legend.....and will continue to be over time due to his brand. Football is simply an American sport and Montana's popularity is thus limited. The Bird/Magic card is a nice card and will also do well but Jordan is Jordan.

    My grade school kids recently did a basketball fundamentals class. I noticed my 7 year old sticking his tongue out while doing dribbling drills.(He's destined for s college scholarship!) I thought it would be great to introduce them to the Dream Team players highlight videos. They were impressed by Jordan....
  • I can confirm that.... My first 86' Jordan PSA 9 was purchased on eBay back in 1999 from a seller in Medford, OR for $2,550.00, I later sold it once I got the complete 86 PSA 9 set built..... Boy I wish I still had those cards...
  • vladguerrerovladguerrero Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I can confirm that.... My first 86' Jordan PSA 9 was purchased on eBay back in 1999 from a seller in Medford, OR for $2,550.00, I later sold it once I got the complete 86 PSA 9 set built..... Boy I wish I still had those cards... >>



    The Graded 1986 Fleer Set Registry cards have seen incredible dilution in value.
  • It'll rise,fall and rise again. The players are to darn good and the issue is considered tough. Long term on this one.
  • ClockworkAngelClockworkAngel Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭
    Basketball as a sport really dropping off in popularity is probably hurting the investment potential of the set as a whole. I can't stomach watching an NBA game anymore, and I know a lot of people that were huge fans in the early 90's, but don't watch it anymore. I think the fall of the sport will hurt the investment potential of sets like this. The Jordan will always be iconic, but it seems cards like the Barkley, Ewing, Olajuwon, Malone are really dropping
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  • MrNearMintMrNearMint Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭
    I remember about 7 months ago I saw a fleer Jordan on a website that I occasionally buy from that was beat to hell with rounded corners and stains everywhere, at best it would grade authentic. The guy was selling it for $25 and I called him to buy it but somebody beat me to it. He told me he sold it as soon as he got it in his store. Seems like there is always a buyer of Jordan rookies. I would love to own one in any grade!
  • I think Jordan totally transcends the sport. He's in the company of Ruth and Ali.

    -Another factor propping up the 86 Fleer price....the fact that the 85 Star XRC rookie is not universally recognized as his best card, best rookie, etc. If the Star XRC was 100% legitimate (as seen by the marketplace), graded by PSA (for the last 10-12 years)....I think the 86 Fleer would have gone down or softened.

    Kind of analogous to the 52 Bowman mantle vs the 51 Bowman or 52 Topps.

    -Another factor (why there are 2,000 9's). I think more 86 Fleer wax has been opened as a percentage of the total amount out there....compared to 81 Topps football or 80/81 basketball. You can buy 81 Topps boxes all day long...vs 86 fleer.

    And much more international exposure. I bet Jordan is 10 to 1 with international fans vs Montana or Magic. Jordans 90s inserts are still doing great.
  • Time4aGansettTime4aGansett Posts: 382 ✭✭✭
    I think no matter what the population is in PSA 9, there will always be many more people interested in this card than there is in the current pop. This alone will keep sales brisk.
    As an investment? I'd rather have a PSA 10 than a 9. But that takes more $$.
    If it were me, I'd grab the Bird/Magic 10 before a Jordan 10 if I were buying both. If only buying one or the other, buy the Jordan.
  • This has undoubtedly been talked about here before but I am new so bear with me. Why does PSA not grade the STAR Michael Jordan card?
  • T206 HOF ers with rare backs seem to be appreciating at the highest rate....
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  • http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=871385&STARTPAGE=1

    Great discussion had here on the boards regarding the Star. Lots of excellent information.

    For the 86 fleer, I don't think you will ever take a bath on a nicely graded one. There are a mind boggling amount of MJ collectors worldwide and as others have said, no matter the supply, it will always be less than demand. I don't think the psa 10 is the wisest investment though. Such a big outlay and a pretty decent pop. Again, never going to go down but growth on this card in any grade won't be the biggest.

    The Star 101 XRC would be the bigger gamble but should PSA ever throw their hat into the ring and start grading these, I can see this card going through the roof. With BGS grading them, I don't see them dropping in value but it is a much tougher sell should you want to get out of the investment. The Fleer appeals to all sports card collectors, MJ collectors etc whereas the Star is an item that in higher grades will really only garner interest from the more elite MJ guys.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,480 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PSA 10 are not a good investment for any card, imo...if you're going to purchase a high-end card a Mint 9 example is the way to go, and even then it depends
    on the card as some are not going to hold value as strongly as others. There's only one way for PSA 10s to go in the pop report: up. And that typically
    corresponds with prices realized going the other way: down. For those collectors for whom the money is not an issue, I can see wanting to own the best
    graded example, but for others, it's not a wise investment.

    For iconic cards like the '86 Jordan, the value may be there long-term in any grade, but I would still want to own a high-end 9 and allocate
    the money left over in other cards or investment opportunities.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • billwaltonsbeardbillwaltonsbeard Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭✭
    12 years ago, a PSA 9 sold for $2500-$3000 and PSA 10 sold for $20000+.

    If you're looking to buy one of them now, hoping they will ever be anywhere near those prices again, I'd say that's pretty unlikely.

    And for the record, I know more about 86 Fleer basketball than any of you image
  • ClockworkAngelClockworkAngel Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭
    There are just still so many Jordans being submitted all the time. It's just not that rare and supply is slowly catching up to demand...

    The only solid investments are the ones that are more than likely not going to get many more subs. PSA 10's from the 70's and earlier are probably safe
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  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,450 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>There are just still so many Jordans being submitted all the time. It's just not that rare and supply is slowly catching up to demand...

    The only solid investments are the ones that are more than likely not going to get many more subs. PSA 10's from the 70's and earlier are probably safe >>



    I have to disagree on the slowly catching up to demand. If you have been following these awhile they almost always sell really quickly. The ones that tend to take awhile to sell generally have poor centering.
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  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,450 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>12 years ago, a PSA 9 sold for $2500-$3000 and PSA 10 sold for $20000+.

    If you're looking to buy one of them now, hoping they will ever be anywhere near those prices again, I'd say that's pretty unlikely.

    And for the record, I know more about 86 Fleer basketball than any of you image >>




    Thank you for the information and I love the confidence.

    You are probably not a Star expert but what do you think about those for investment purposes?
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • mj23kg21mj23kg21 Posts: 134 ✭✭


    << <i>12 years ago, a PSA 9 sold for $2500-$3000 and PSA 10 sold for $20000+.

    If you're looking to buy one of them now, hoping they will ever be anywhere near those prices again, I'd say that's pretty unlikely.

    And for the record, I know more about 86 Fleer basketball than any of you image >>



    I know back in 1998 - 2000 PSA 10 Jordan rookies were selling for $30,000 - $35,000 each and PSA 9's were going for $3,000 plus. The stickers were also selling for crazy prices.
    Always looking to buy old Minnesota Twins and Vikings memorabilia like Nodders, Photo Pennants, and Photo Buttons.
  • esquiresportsesquiresports Posts: 1,360 ✭✭✭
    MJ23KG21 is correct on his pricing. That's when I was last in the hobby and those were the prices. The stickers and 1987 Jordan and sticker were bringing huge money. So there's been a large drop from the top of the market.

    That said, I agree with BBG that a PSA 10 is probably a better long-term investment. But that's dreamland for most of us. I wouldn't be overly concerned with the downside in the 1986 Jordan at today's prices given the price stability and recent increase over the last six years as noted by BBG. However, I wouldn't be expecting a home run return either. Still, I like the upside more than I dislike the downside.

    I would not be worried about decline in popularity of the NBA. I don't know if NBA attendance and ratings would back up that concern. The NBA also seems to be picking up in international popularity faster than the baseball and football (I have no evidence for this - just my perception).
    Always buying 1971 OPC Baseball packs.
  • daprodapro Posts: 209 ✭✭
    Jordan sells. Even a psa 1 is going over $200.
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