I'm not so sure that all of the choice coins have made their way into the holders - even some with the sky high prices. I'll give you an example. My Dad (now in his early 60's) has collected coins his whole life, with the typical time-off phases as family priorities come and go. We collected actively together in the early 1980's - a great father/son activity. I got the coin collecting fever again about 6 months ago and on a recent visit to see him I asked if we could pull out his collection.
It was incredible, almost a hoard. Since the mid-80's, he has only been buying new mint products but he has never sold a thing. Rolls and rolls of BU indian cents, 1920's-30's wheat cents, buffalo nickels, Franklin halves, Morgan dollars (ok, those are pretty common) and more. Probably 5 each of every mint set & proof set ever produced. Nothing is slabbed and he hasn't looked at pricing in 20 years. In fact, he didn't even know they were slabbing coins (!) Maybe he's an anomoly, but I'm sure there are some others out there like him. We didn't have time for me to do a thorough search and he's a plane ticket away so it will be a little while before I cna have another crack at it.
That's the risk of collecting the finest, I suppose!
Tom
NOTE: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
Type collector since 1981 Current focus 1855 date type set
First off, Blade, welcome to the forums. -Great first post! But to respond to it: It appears what your Dad has is not so much a 'collection', but instead an accumulation of coins. (Still sounds like he's got some nice stuff though!). There is a distinction.
Glad to have you back. No doubt there will be at least some high grade coins in your dad's holdings. If he had an eye for quality there could be quite a few. Most high grade coins go for a lot of money now and many have not been slabbed yet. These coins will pour into the grading services for many years to come. But don't get the idea that just because he has modern mint products in their original holders that he has lots of high grade moderns. Back in the days when few people were looking for gem quality, one had to buy about $1,000 worth of mint sets to get 1 superb gem. (registry quality). Now the incidence of these coins has dropped (especially for the larger coins) and the prices have escalated. It requires substatially more expenditure and effort to aquire them. Your dad's sets will be nice original sets, but with the number you mention there will be very few of the more important coins. You'll have a MS-68 cent probably, Maybe a 66 nickel, a 67 dime, a 66 quarter, and maybe a 66 half. There's a fair chance of having a monster. With original sets if there is 1 monster there is an excellent chance of a couple more of the same coin. You'll probably find similar numbers for many of the modern coins of all types. There was no note of rolls of modern coins-this is typical. Very few people saved any post-1964 rolls except for a few nickels and some cents. There are very few gems in modern rolls in any case. Some are non-existent in rolls.
Clad king - thanks for the comments. It's only been in the past few weeks that I've been reading these forums that I've realized how scarce the better grade moderns are. I previously thought that mint sets would post MS65-66 and a solid group going MS67. So I went back to some of my sets and sure enough there are plenty of coins that have been in contact with something. I've even got an Ike in a mint set that has a bag mark so bad that it looks like a beat up Morgan dollars. But it would still be interesting to look.
I've been to a dealer's site recently (Cheap Slabs) and they have some old proof sets, supposedly original sealed, for a $3-$5 premium to the open ones. Kind of an interesting treasure hunt if they really have never been opened. I'm really looking forward to giving my Dad's stuff the once over. I did notice a handful of DCAM proofs in 50's era proof sets.
And you are right about the rolls. Almost none post '64.
Tom
NOTE: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
Type collector since 1981 Current focus 1855 date type set
Opening original sets and rolls is a lot of fun and sometimes provides wonderful surprises. Modern sets are fed by hoppers which are filled with coins which tend to be consecutive strikes from the same die. When a gem goes into a set there is a high probability that the next set will also have a gem. This makes it possible to spot check large batches of unopened sets. There was also an enlightening thread recently concerning resealing these sets. The same applies to rolls even more so. There usually are only about 8 to 10 die pairs represented in each bag, so when you see one roll from a bag, you've seen 'em all. Later date sets are sent out by zip code, so some gems can be hunted down by locale.
Sets obtained this way are usually of at least average quality which is often about the best you can get nowdays. It's at least much better than what's usually available on the retail market. Best of luck on your hunt.
You guys are absolutely right on the issue of post-1964 rolls. I recently ran into a major seller of rolls/bags. He still had some 1979-1980 SBA mint sewn bags available for $2200 ($2000 face) which I probably should have bought and state quarter bags of course. He even also had late-1990's in Kennedys. But, I asked him for his selection of Clad quarter bags/rolls. He essentially told me that in the past several years he had not come across a mint sewn Clad quarter bag. I am aware of (2) original bags of clad quarters (1965-1998) for the entire series that were available to me in the past 4-5 years . One a dealer had and wasn't going to let go at any reasonable level and the other was a 1998 bag of quarters that I figured at the time (in 1999) weren't worth going through and paying well over Grey Sheet ask for.
With Atlantic City and Las Vegas "to blame" I wonder if these clad quarter bags are truly as rare as original Ike Dollar bags? Mint Sets can account, on average for around 1/2 of 1% of the total mintage of many of these clad quarters. Is that basically what remains of these mintages in MS grade - around 1/2 of 1% of the total original mintage? Think about that. And, then, on top of that, you hear account after account of needing to go through hundreds of mint sets to find a super gem piece (imho, the quarters are far tougher than the Kennedys to locate in grades MS67 and better).
I sold off the "lions share" of my former #1 Set of PCGS Clad Quarters (which I bought from Registycoin last year after he bought out R. Green's former #1 set and Ryan White's high quality set and merged the sets together), but I did hang onto the 1968(p) and 1969(d) quarters in PCGS-MS68. I wonder if coins such as these will prove as scarce and collectible as say the silver Wash quarters in PCGS-MS68 once more collectors appreciate the scarcity of super high grade clad quarters, particularly pre-1977 and 1989-1995). Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Lots of good points brought up in this thread and all of them pretty factual. Just like in any quickly rising market (stocks, real estate, beany babies, coins), the end is signaled when nearly everyone loves the item and cannot get enough of them. Competition is fierce, no one has a bad word to say about them, and the future looks bright without a bump in sight. With increases of 5-10x for many moderns they are clearly on the same radar screen as beany babies and tulips (I know, there was no radar yet available during the tulip mania). Coin runs have rarely lasted more than a few years. Many other series of coins have yet to participate in this current run and remain at levels 1/2 to 1/3 of their 1989-90 highs. Many types are still back at their pre-1980 levels. If someone had done well in the modern market I'd be pointing them towards areas yet untapped (classic commens, pre-1916 type coins, silver dollars, patterns, etc.) What goes up this quick, will end just as rapidly. All that euphoria that surrounded stocks in 1999 is similar to the moderns now. When the roar gets so deafening that all reason is thrown out, the party is over. For my money, the classics are rapidly picking up interest as money from the moderns spills over. They have a much longer track record and consistent demand and are still at collector price levels in most areas.
We hotly debated the issue of MS68 PCGS Washingtons and Roosevelts a month or so ago. As PCGS constantly readjusts their standards, the pops of the MS68's could drastically alter. A 50% increase just occured on the MS68 Washington's. This is the first step. I can recall in 1988 or 1989 when I owned the only PCGS-67 1934 Washington quarter (now there are 24+). PCGS altered standards in the 1990's with classic coins and they are going to it for moderns as well. There is demand for more product to fill sets up with MS68's and 67's so they need to increase the product. PCGS will make more money too. No one wants to collect a series where no product is available. Ex: how many UNC sets of Seated Quarters do you know of? The product is not available and never will be. PCGS can't alter the standards enough to create that product. But they can do it for post-1930 coinage. Since they'll make more $$ in the process with increased interest and submissions, it will happen.
It would seem obvious that the end can't be near since so few love clads or feel they can't get enough. Many still have to hold their noses to even talk about them, and at least here there are certainly many bad words said about them. I guess this is really gonna be a good long run-hold on to your hats!
roadrunner, some valid points, but again it depends on whether you are a collector or a speculator, and what you're collecting.
I've got a couple of toned Ikes that I could sell for a lot more than I paid for them, but would I be able to buy them back -- even if they theoretically dropped to a quarter of their value? Why would the guy I sold them to want to sell them back, especially at a loss? They may be lost to me forever, so that cash better be enough to make me happy with the assumption I never get that coin back. I live every day with the pain of selling a (non-toned) 1971 Ike that's nicer than any I've seen since.
On the other hand, if you're talking about something that's more "generic", e.g. the brilliant MS68 state quarters you mention (or MS70 modern commems probably being the most extreme case) those may be easier to replace with something that looks essentially the same and could be better candidates for sale.
Mitch, keep your best quarters...if you have to ask, you don't want to sell them...however, sell those ugly tarnished roosies you're holding...now is a good time to bail out on them......
"You keep your 1804 dollar and 1822 half eagle -- give me rainbow roosies in MS68." rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
I think that all of you guys holding monster toned comems should bail as fast as you can. Bruce, Greg, and the rest of you should consign your coins to the next sale (preferably the same one) and just let the chips fall where they may. Just my two and a half cents worth of advise for all those foolish enough to pay any attention.
<< <i>ttt. An interesting thread from 2 years ago. Any change in thinking? >>
I'm not quite as optimistic as I was two years ago about the future of the hobby. It's not going away anytime soon but the retention of newbies has been a little lower than it looked at that time. By the same token the number of older collectors rediscovering coins after many years has done a little better than anticipated.
While the growth of moderns is certainly continuing apace, it does look as though the geometric increase may have faultered. It still doesn't appear to be a good selling op- portunity.
These are some of my first posts. ...doesn't look like they've improved much
Interesting Thread recovery! -What has changed for me is I've since sold each and every Modern Registry I owned. I still enjoy and collect some Contemporary singles, but no longer concentrate on Set building.
I and a few others here believe,especially with the Lincoln series it will still go up.As I've said on other posts,2009 will be a turning point.When they decide what to do about the cent.What ever they do,will cause the value of the Lincolns to climb.IMHO
I didn't notice the date on the thread until I saw a post of mine from mid-2002. And I'd say the exact same thing today. But it's clear moderns and 20th cent. registry sets have survived another 2 years with most of the hype (I meand "demand") intact.
I don't have to post to this thread, my reply from 2002 is exactly what I would write today. Cash out of what has gone up 5x to 10x and rebalance your assets. There are so many different series with much to offer. If I was a Roosy nut, I could give up my best MS68 toners for nutty prices and be very happy starting from scratch in a totally different series. There are many fish in this ocean.
"These are some of my first posts....doesn't look like they have improved much. "
Mine still are lifeless also...
Anyway on the subject. A different way of collecting has began since the original post. The complete set concept has been throw in and more effort has been made to collect a higher grade earlier date portion of the series. Since the original date of this thread the later date portion of the series has experienced some pretty healthy population advances which in my opinion will hurt the collectors, money wise, that have held on to this portion of the series. Just the reverse has happened with the earlier dates. Small population advance and in some cases fairly large gains price wise and the end is not in sight yet I believe.
Also in the first response a reference from myself was made that the money aspect of the hobby really did not enter into the equation very much. Well that was a bunch of BS. Of course it does. Show me anyone that just loves to throw money away.
Right at the moment "Let it Ride" still stands even though some dollars could be made with what has been retained from two years ago. IMO the upward trend is still present and no huge loss will happen anytime soon.
Bring this thread back in two more years. Maybe a different attitude will be had by then. One thing will not change, the posts will still be lifeless I believe.
Let me throw back some ideas or thoughts that I have heard on these boards. Its been postulated that many new collectors have entered the hobby due to the introduction of the state quarter program and also that set building, especially moderns has been taking place at a more rapid pace. If this is true then I would be cautious hanging onto high grade, high priced moderns, ergo I would strongly consider selling now. As these new collectors begin to realize how expensive it is to complete a high grade set and the natural tendency of new collectors to wander off into different series, dare I say less modern, then it might stand to reason that the market will thin out for these purchases.
I would be more apt to sell if I had a major part of my investment into these sets. Of course this all depends on whether or not the new collectors have deep pockets and decide to stay with what they are collecting at the moment. One of the positive things these boards do is to help widen the knowledge of new collectors and interest them in less modern coins. It naturally follows that more someone knows about something the more their interest is piqued or in some cases the less it is piqued. One thing is for certain is that modern collectors are often assailed with warnings and how much of this is heeded and sinks in I am not sure. In fact not sure if it isn't over done. Bowers has an interesting article in this weeks Coin World talking about the wide latitude this hobby gives us as far as the choice of what to collect. Its a good read as he is concentrating on Lincolns in his article.
<< <i>Let me throw back some ideas or thoughts that I have heard on these boards. Its been postulated that many new collectors have entered the hobby due to the introduction of the state quarter program and also that set building, especially moderns has been taking place at a more rapid pace. If this is true then I would be cautious hanging onto high grade, high priced moderns, ergo I would strongly consider selling now. As these new collectors begin to realize how expensive it is to complete a high grade set and the natural tendency of new collectors to wander off into different series, dare I say less modern, then it might stand to reason that the market will thin out for these purchases. >>
There are few newbies buying pop tops. In order to get to the point that someone feels confident spending large amounts of money on individual coins, he has left "neopyhite" well behind. It is still possible to complete high grade modern sets for little more than pocket change simply because the demand is still low. All of the modern rarities whether grade rarity or not tend to sell for much less than comparably rare classics. Not that there's a problem with this, but it is the way the market is at this time.
<< <i> One of the positive things these boards do is to help widen the knowledge of new collectors and interest them in less modern coins. >>
Ideally then, they'll all end up on the world and ancient coin forum and leave all this modern stuff behind?
Wow - what a thread from the past! Well, of course, I didn't cash out my silver Wash quarters. I believe for the most part, the rarities continued to achieve impressive gains (e.g. 32(d), (s)) while the common coins remained steady to slightly below where they were. To me, the money I had tied up in silver quarters over the past couple years neither performed that well, nor terribly poor. I still greatly enjoy my collection, and that is all that matters to me. Obviously, Lincolns took a different course as a series, with virtually the entire series shooting higher and higher (leading to several major sales this year already). And, across the board, the great rarities scored impressive gains these past couple years. And, yes, colorful Commems went crazy these past couple years as well (to name just a few series).
So, whether to "cash out" or "let it ride" continues to be a personal thing. Add to the choices - "increase ones positions". I personally did exactly that, putting together a "classic" pattern nickel collection as well as increased heavily my personal holdings in Mint State "moderns" (whatever that term means), such as Kennedy Half Dollars (current #2 set), clad quarters (current #3 set after having previously sold out), state quarters, Sac Dollars (current #3 set), etc. In particular, my modern holdings have performed" very well these past couple years. Tomorrow is another day and I will, once again be faced with the decision to "cash out or let it ride"
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
You must survey the market BEFORE you sell because selling a large quantity of high end coins might actually flood the market and result in lower than expected prices.
While there might be a few collectors who would LOVE to buy all of your coins, there is the danger that they can afford only a few at one time, leaving the rest begging for buyers. If you are in an auction, you might find lower prices only because supply is greater than demand.
In fact, a decision to sell could send the market spiraling lower.
If you want to sell a large quantity of high end coins... do it QUIETLY and PRIVATELY or face the consequences.
I think your original post has already damaged the high end market for the coins you want to sell.
"I think your original post has already damaged the high end market for the coins you want to sell."
Alan: Not sure who, or what, this comment is directed at? Of course, many of the coins I mentioned in the original post have risen to significantly higher levels in the past couple years. And, again, I have no plans to sell my Wash quarter collection at this time - in fact I also added the 1936-64 proofs to the collection, as well as some key MS silver varieties over the past couple years.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
Mitch, my last comment is an appraisal of the hot market TODAY and not two years ago.
Clearly, two years ago the market was just taking off. Now it is at high levels and we have to wonder IF it can go higher, or if we are so high that it's running out of oxygen at such levels.
So my comments are directed at potential sellers today. Be careful: too much high end stuff coming to the market all at once is what creates corrections.
<< <i>Mitch, my last comment is an appraisal of the hot market TODAY and not two years ago.
Clearly, two years ago the market was just taking off. Now it is at high levels and we have to wonder IF it can go higher, or if we are so high that it's running out of oxygen at such levels.
So my comments are directed at potential sellers today. Be careful: too much high end stuff coming to the market all at once is what creates corrections. >>
Yes, and there is always risk associated with hot markets, but it should be noted that severe corrections are generally the result of a reassessment of risk by many participants who are speculating in a market. There is little evidence of significant speculation in these markets so it would seem to follow that a major correction is unlikely barring a major change in supply or demand.
Cladking raises the question of "speculation" in the market. I believe the market is filled with intense speculation now that started to build two years ago with "registry mania" and now the rising price of gold and the new wave to hard assets.
If the IRA rules had changed to allow collectibles or some other change in law or investment policy had come about then I would say the market is fundamentally sound-- but it's not.
That is not to say that the market is shaky -- indeed it's not. It's strong and on fire, but fires burn out with more fuel and I wonder where the next truckload of wood is coming from?
Let me ask this question: could you afford today to buy your coins at today's prices? if you can't or wouldnt purchase your coins today at today's prices you face a danger of an overpriced market.
With respect to a number of series, I agree. But, keep in mind that there are still some RELATIVE bargains out there IMHO. For example, many believe most Seated material still trades at levels far beneath their true value. There are some incredible deals in pattern coinage if you are disciplined and well versed in that series as well. And, I believe some modern MS coinage still offers spectacular possibilities and opportunities - to name just a few series. Of course, everyone has their favorite series - my point is I do not believe every coin series is "maxed out" right now. Yes, much of the "low hanging fruit" has been picked, but, if you are determined and can "climb trees', I think you will find some neat opportunities still out there.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
It was incredible, almost a hoard. Since the mid-80's, he has only been buying new mint products but he has never sold a thing. Rolls and rolls of BU indian cents, 1920's-30's wheat cents, buffalo nickels, Franklin halves, Morgan dollars (ok, those are pretty common) and more. Probably 5 each of every mint set & proof set ever produced. Nothing is slabbed and he hasn't looked at pricing in 20 years. In fact, he didn't even know they were slabbing coins (!) Maybe he's an anomoly, but I'm sure there are some others out there like him. We didn't have time for me to do a thorough search and he's a plane ticket away so it will be a little while before I cna have another crack at it.
That's the risk of collecting the finest, I suppose!
NOTE: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
Type collector since 1981
Current focus 1855 date type set
There is a distinction.
peacockcoins
No doubt there will be at least some high grade coins in your dad's holdings. If he had an eye
for quality there could be quite a few. Most high grade coins go for a lot of money now and many
have not been slabbed yet. These coins will pour into the grading services for many years to
come. But don't get the idea that just because he has modern mint products in their original
holders that he has lots of high grade moderns. Back in the days when few people were looking
for gem quality, one had to buy about $1,000 worth of mint sets to get 1 superb gem. (registry
quality). Now the incidence of these coins has dropped (especially for the larger coins) and the
prices have escalated. It requires substatially more expenditure and effort to aquire them. Your
dad's sets will be nice original sets, but with the number you mention there will be very few of the
more important coins. You'll have a MS-68 cent probably, Maybe a 66 nickel, a 67 dime, a 66
quarter, and maybe a 66 half. There's a fair chance of having a monster. With original sets if
there is 1 monster there is an excellent chance of a couple more of the same coin. You'll probably
find similar numbers for many of the modern coins of all types. There was no note of rolls of
modern coins-this is typical. Very few people saved any post-1964 rolls except for a few nickels
and some cents. There are very few gems in modern rolls in any case. Some are non-existent
in rolls.
I've been to a dealer's site recently (Cheap Slabs) and they have some old proof sets, supposedly original sealed, for a $3-$5 premium to the open ones. Kind of an interesting treasure hunt if they really have never been opened. I'm really looking forward to giving my Dad's stuff the once over. I did notice a handful of DCAM proofs in 50's era proof sets.
And you are right about the rolls. Almost none post '64.
NOTE: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
Type collector since 1981
Current focus 1855 date type set
Oh, is that all?
A couple of those in the right dates will make your Dad quite happy!
surprises. Modern sets are fed by hoppers which are filled with coins which tend
to be consecutive strikes from the same die. When a gem goes into a set there
is a high probability that the next set will also have a gem. This makes it possible
to spot check large batches of unopened sets. There was also an enlightening
thread recently concerning resealing these sets. The same applies to rolls even
more so. There usually are only about 8 to 10 die pairs represented in each bag,
so when you see one roll from a bag, you've seen 'em all. Later date sets are sent
out by zip code, so some gems can be hunted down by locale.
Sets obtained this way are usually of at least average quality which is often about
the best you can get nowdays. It's at least much better than what's usually
available on the retail market. Best of luck on your hunt.
With Atlantic City and Las Vegas "to blame" I wonder if these clad quarter bags are truly as rare as original Ike Dollar bags? Mint Sets can account, on average for around 1/2 of 1% of the total mintage of many of these clad quarters. Is that basically what remains of these mintages in MS grade - around 1/2 of 1% of the total original mintage? Think about that. And, then, on top of that, you hear account after account of needing to go through hundreds of mint sets to find a super gem piece (imho, the quarters are far tougher than the Kennedys to locate in grades MS67 and better).
I sold off the "lions share" of my former #1 Set of PCGS Clad Quarters (which I bought from Registycoin last year after he bought out R. Green's former #1 set and Ryan White's high quality set and merged the sets together), but I did hang onto the 1968(p) and 1969(d) quarters in PCGS-MS68. I wonder if coins such as these will prove as scarce and collectible as say the silver Wash quarters in PCGS-MS68 once more collectors appreciate the scarcity of super high grade clad quarters, particularly pre-1977 and 1989-1995).
We hotly debated the issue of MS68 PCGS Washingtons and Roosevelts a month or so ago. As PCGS constantly readjusts their standards, the pops of the MS68's could drastically alter. A 50% increase just occured on the MS68 Washington's. This is the first step. I can recall in 1988 or 1989 when I owned the only PCGS-67 1934 Washington quarter (now there are 24+). PCGS altered standards in the 1990's with classic coins and they are going to it for moderns as well. There is demand for more product to fill sets up with MS68's and 67's so they need to increase the product. PCGS will make more money too. No one wants to collect a series where no product is available. Ex: how many UNC sets of Seated Quarters do you know of? The product is not available and never will be. PCGS can't alter the standards enough to create that product. But they can do it for post-1930 coinage. Since they'll make more $$ in the process with increased interest and submissions, it will happen.
roadrunner
can't get enough. Many still have to hold their noses to even talk about them, and
at least here there are certainly many bad words said about them. I guess this is really
gonna be a good long run-hold on to your hats!
I've got a couple of toned Ikes that I could sell for a lot more than I paid for them, but would I be able to buy them back -- even if they theoretically dropped to a quarter of their value? Why would the guy I sold them to want to sell them back, especially at a loss? They may be lost to me forever, so that cash better be enough to make me happy with the assumption I never get that coin back. I live every day with the pain of selling a (non-toned) 1971 Ike that's nicer than any I've seen since.
On the other hand, if you're talking about something that's more "generic", e.g. the brilliant MS68 state quarters you mention (or MS70 modern commems probably being the most extreme case) those may be easier to replace with something that looks essentially the same and could be better candidates for sale.
keep your best quarters...if you have to ask, you don't want to sell them...however, sell those ugly tarnished roosies you're holding...now is a good time to bail out on them......
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
<< <i>ttt. An interesting thread from 2 years ago. Any change in thinking? >>
I'm not quite as optimistic as I was two years ago about the future of the hobby. It's
not going away anytime soon but the retention of newbies has been a little lower than
it looked at that time. By the same token the number of older collectors rediscovering
coins after many years has done a little better than anticipated.
While the growth of moderns is certainly continuing apace, it does look as though the
geometric increase may have faultered. It still doesn't appear to be a good selling op-
portunity.
These are some of my first posts. ...doesn't look like they've improved much
-What has changed for me is I've since sold each and every Modern Registry I owned. I still enjoy and collect some Contemporary singles, but no longer concentrate on Set building.
peacockcoins
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
I don't have to post to this thread, my reply from 2002 is exactly what I would write today. Cash out of what has gone up 5x to 10x and rebalance your assets. There are so many different series with much to offer. If I was a Roosy nut, I could give up my best MS68 toners for nutty prices and be very happy starting from scratch in a totally different series. There are many fish in this ocean.
roadrunner
It was for my dime type set.
onlyroosies has a good solid handle on his grading. I was impressed. of course I only asked about 2320 questions on the telephone.
Mine still are lifeless also...
Anyway on the subject. A different way of collecting has began since the original post. The complete set concept has been throw in and more effort has been made to collect a higher grade earlier date portion of the series. Since the original date of this thread the later date portion of the series has experienced some pretty healthy population advances which in my opinion will hurt the collectors, money wise, that have held on to this portion of the series. Just the reverse has happened with the earlier dates. Small population advance and in some cases fairly large gains price wise and the end is not in sight yet I believe.
Also in the first response a reference from myself was made that the money aspect of the hobby really did not enter into the equation very much. Well that was a bunch of BS. Of course it does. Show me anyone that just loves to throw money away.
Right at the moment "Let it Ride" still stands even though some dollars could be made with what has been retained from two years ago. IMO the upward trend is still present and no huge loss will happen anytime soon.
Bring this thread back in two more years. Maybe a different attitude will be had by then. One thing will not change, the posts will still be lifeless I believe.
Ken
I would be more apt to sell if I had a major part of my investment into these sets. Of course this all depends on whether or not the new collectors have deep pockets and decide to stay with what they are collecting at the moment. One of the positive things these boards do is to help widen the knowledge of new collectors and interest them in less modern coins. It naturally follows that more someone knows about something the more their interest is piqued or in some cases the less it is piqued. One thing is for certain is that modern collectors are often assailed with warnings and how much of this is heeded and sinks in I am not sure. In fact not sure if it isn't over done. Bowers has an interesting article in this weeks Coin World talking about the wide latitude this hobby gives us as far as the choice of what to collect. Its a good read as he is concentrating on Lincolns in his article.
<< <i>Let me throw back some ideas or thoughts that I have heard on these boards. Its been postulated that many new collectors have entered the hobby due to the introduction of the state quarter program and also that set building, especially moderns has been taking place at a more rapid pace. If this is true then I would be cautious hanging onto high grade, high priced moderns, ergo I would strongly consider selling now. As these new collectors begin to realize how expensive it is to complete a high grade set and the natural tendency of new collectors to wander off into different series, dare I say less modern, then it might stand to reason that the market will thin out for these purchases. >>
There are few newbies buying pop tops. In order to get to the point that someone feels
confident spending large amounts of money on individual coins, he has left "neopyhite" well
behind. It is still possible to complete high grade modern sets for little more than pocket change
simply because the demand is still low. All of the modern rarities whether grade rarity or not
tend to sell for much less than comparably rare classics. Not that there's a problem with this,
but it is the way the market is at this time.
<< <i> One of the positive things these boards do is to help widen the knowledge of new collectors and interest them in less modern coins. >>
Ideally then, they'll all end up on the world and ancient coin forum and leave all this modern
stuff behind?
So, whether to "cash out" or "let it ride" continues to be a personal thing. Add to the choices - "increase ones positions". I personally did exactly that, putting together a "classic" pattern nickel collection as well as increased heavily my personal holdings in Mint State "moderns" (whatever that term means), such as Kennedy Half Dollars (current #2 set), clad quarters (current #3 set after having previously sold out), state quarters, Sac Dollars (current #3 set), etc. In particular, my modern holdings have performed" very well these past couple years. Tomorrow is another day and I will, once again be faced with the decision to "cash out or let it ride"
Wondercoin
You must survey the market BEFORE you sell because selling a large quantity of high end coins might actually flood the market and result in lower than expected prices.
While there might be a few collectors who would LOVE to buy all of your coins, there is the danger that they can afford only a few at one time, leaving the rest begging for buyers. If you are in an auction, you might find lower prices only because supply is greater than demand.
In fact, a decision to sell could send the market spiraling lower.
If you want to sell a large quantity of high end coins... do it QUIETLY and PRIVATELY or face the consequences.
I think your original post has already damaged the high end market for the coins you want to sell.
cheers, alan mendelson
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Alan: Not sure who, or what, this comment is directed at? Of course, many of the coins I mentioned in the original post have risen to significantly higher levels in the past couple years. And, again, I have no plans to sell my Wash quarter collection at this time - in fact I also added the 1936-64 proofs to the collection, as well as some key MS silver varieties over the past couple years.
Wondercoin
If your a collector, keep on having fun.
Clearly, two years ago the market was just taking off. Now it is at high levels and we have to wonder IF it can go higher, or if we are so high that it's running out of oxygen at such levels.
So my comments are directed at potential sellers today. Be careful: too much high end stuff coming to the market all at once is what creates corrections.
In my haste, I erred. Sorry.
cheers, alan mendelson
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>Mitch, my last comment is an appraisal of the hot market TODAY and not two years ago.
Clearly, two years ago the market was just taking off. Now it is at high levels and we have to wonder IF it can go higher, or if we are so high that it's running out of oxygen at such levels.
So my comments are directed at potential sellers today. Be careful: too much high end stuff coming to the market all at once is what creates corrections.
>>
Yes, and there is always risk associated with hot markets, but it should be noted
that severe corrections are generally the result of a reassessment of risk by many
participants who are speculating in a market. There is little evidence of significant
speculation in these markets so it would seem to follow that a major correction is
unlikely barring a major change in supply or demand.
If the IRA rules had changed to allow collectibles or some other change in law or investment policy had come about then I would say the market is fundamentally sound-- but it's not.
That is not to say that the market is shaky -- indeed it's not. It's strong and on fire, but fires burn out with more fuel and I wonder where the next truckload of wood is coming from?
Let me ask this question: could you afford today to buy your coins at today's prices? if you can't or wouldnt purchase your coins today at today's prices you face a danger of an overpriced market.
cheers, alan mendelson
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
With respect to a number of series, I agree. But, keep in mind that there are still some RELATIVE bargains out there IMHO. For example, many believe most Seated material still trades at levels far beneath their true value. There are some incredible deals in pattern coinage if you are disciplined and well versed in that series as well. And, I believe some modern MS coinage still offers spectacular possibilities and opportunities - to name just a few series. Of course, everyone has their favorite series - my point is I do not believe every coin series is "maxed out" right now. Yes, much of the "low hanging fruit" has been picked, but, if you are determined and can "climb trees', I think you will find some neat opportunities still out there.
Wondercoin