Cash Out Or Let It Ride?

wondercoin

OK. This thread is for Braddick.

Let's face it. Over the past 12 months the finest known coins in nearly every 20th Century coin series has moved up and in many cases has skyrocketed. Liberty Nickels - up. Indian Cents - up. Mercury Dimes - up. Walkers - up. Wash quarters - through the roof. Lincoln cents - "nuclear". Jefferson nickels - near nuclear. Roosevelt Dimes - way up. Kennedy halves - way up. Ikes and SBA - way up. BTWs and WC's - way up! And, on and on and on.

Some coins in my silver Wash quarter collection are worth roughly 5x what they were worth a year or two ago. Lincolns are often worth 2x-3x what they were selling for 6 months ago. A Kennedy date I sold to board members in small quantity just sold for 10x 6 months later on ebay. Even the MS70 CVC $5 gold coins I sold in large quantity to board members for around $345/coin 9 months ago roughly tripled from that point.

I know I could sell a very large percentage of my silver top grade quarters right now for huge % gains. Others could sell their Lincolns right now for similar gains and so on. Is it time to "cash out" or is this just the beginning as TDN suggested today (with reference to PCGS being tight right now leading to limited new supplies of freshly graded coins) on another thread and likely speaking more to 19th century prices increases which have likely performed nicely as well this past year (although I do not follow the 19th century coins as I do the 20th century coins)?

Cash out or let it ride? Wondercoin

kyleknap

My advise would be to get out. Obviously you would be pleased with the profit you would make on them now, why take the chance of prices dropping?

Kyle

wondercoin

Kyle: Thanks for the comment. I am also interested in the question beyond my personal collection. Does it make sense for a lot of collectors to "cash out" now or stand pat? Didn't Casper's Morgans sell at a spectacular level as well? There were also several registry type guys letting their collections go in the recent Heritage auctions. Wondercoin

Coin Finder

I am over my head head in this discussion but it seems to me that as soon as you are out, they are going to pull you back in eventually!! Keep your prize coins for you may never see them again.

My 2 Cents.

Tbig

supercoin

That's an interesting question.

Since I started collecting Ikes, on several separate occasions, I decided to "sell out" some highest-grade coins because they were getting "too expensive".

In many cases, these were coins I found and certified myself, so I didn't (in theory) have much money into them, except that of course they represented the cream of the crop in searching, the ones that needed to make money to make up for all the losers.

So I looked at the current market value, decided if that was too much for me to spend if I were to buy it on the open market, and used that as my basis to sell.

Well, each time it was, obviously, a terrible financial move. Luckily I did buy into some toned coins so I kept a toe in the rising market, and am selling some now to try to rebuild some of my Ike collection.

But, I'm not making enough to be able to buy back some of those high-grade Ikes, and in some cases I haven't even come across equivalent replacements.

Toned coins and other unique coins are even more of a quandary. Even if it's the right financial move, they can never be truly replaced, unless you buy them back from who you sold them to.

Enough of my Ike sob story.

---------

More generally from a strictly financial standpoint:

I think it's safe to say the market in many of these coins, like almost all markets, is going to peak at some point and drop. Otherwise Ikes are going to be worth $1 million each in 20 years! The question is how far will it continue to go up, and how far will it drop.

The problem is, assuming you want to replace your collection if you sell, you have to time it very accurately and have a large price movement, or it won't make sense. There are very significant costs involved in selling and repurchasing -- in addition to the obvious costs of sales commissions or bid/ask spreads, there are myriad incidental costs that really add up. And of course the time involved, depending on whether you count that (as a dealer, I do).

It's not like timing the stock market, where every share of stock is identical and can be bought and sold at a moment's notice with very little sales cost. In the stock market, if you could consistently guess right about a 1% movement you'd be a billionaire in a year. With coins, you'd be bleeding money.

But, as always, it seems to me that the best way to approach collecting is to make sure the cost of your collection is well within your discretionary budget, whatever that might be for you. Treat it as entertainment, not an investment.

As an excercise, look at your collection, and decide if you'd be sick to your stomach and hating life if it's value dropped to 1/2 of 1/4 of what it is now. If it's getting too large for your comfort, perhaps selling it and putting cash into a more traditional investment would make sense.

There's always the darkside to satisfy collecting desires on the cheap.

Blade

You aren't kidding. I dropped out of collecting for several years and came back to sheer insanity. But I can tell you that I'm glad I kept my choicest coins and they are a great foundation. Unless you are cash-strapped or have your eye on something in the 19th century, I say keep 'em.

Fairlaneman

Did the Cash Out Route already One Time. That was back in the Late 80's when the Prices were Very High and Collecting Ended Up being No Fun because Nothing was Affordable. Cashed Out and Lost Complete Contact with Coin Collecting untill 4 Years ago. Just by a whim I went to a Coin Show and Could Not believe how Cheap Coins had become so decided to Jump back in again.

At this Point the Coins I collect Still Have Not Approached the Prices they had in the Late 80's. Money is Easier to come by now and the Constant Worry of Losing a Few Bucks is Not Present. The Monetary aspect of Collecting had More Influence in the 80's than it does now. So in Essence My answer to Your Question is,"Let It Ride". I'm Here for the Ride whether Smooth or Bumpy.

If there is Another Cash Out on My Part that will Be It I will be Out For Good.

Ken

wondercoin

Supercoin: Exceptionally well reasoned

I do think part of the decision is also what to do with the money after you sell- new coin pursuit or placing the money in something that has nothing to do with coins (e.g. CD's, stocks, bonds, real estate, business, etc). If one has a vision and direction to go with the money, then it might be easier to decide to sell?

Obviously, a great many important collections are "hitting the blocks" these days as witnessed by the many major auction companies' consignments. On the other hand, PCGS went from having 2000 registered sets to close to 2600 registered sets in "no time" (i.e. there may be 1000's of sets to yet hit the auction block)!!
Who knows how it will all play out Wondercoin

cladking

No one ever went broke taking a profit. But, if your question is what direction are these coins headed then surely the answer is up. Millions of new collectors are coming around. They mostly are starting with the new mint material and branching out from there. The hobby is doing a poor job of capturing these people but many are sufficiently motivated that they don't need any encouragement. Only the first waves have gotten the bug but with the government and industry promotions and the States Quarters circulating there are sure to be many to follow. It's been a long time since there has been any growth in the hobby, so many have forgotten that each new collector represents a continuing demand as his collection grows and expands into new areas. It is obvious that there has been relatively little increased demand to date, but it has pushed many of these prices skyward. What happens if this is the long term trend that it appears to be. All the important trends from demographics to equity and bond prices seem to be pointed our way. Certainly there will be setbacks and some may be severe but if you can withstand the financial storms there should be a tropical paradise on the other side. Some of the material you mention is likely to do less well than the rest-perhaps you can sell off some of it and ride the rest. If you worry a lot about it then by all means sell. I collect quarters from circulation- they are a ton of fun and I never worry what direction they're headed.

Bcsican

This is a question I think about daily. I think the bottom line boils down to: can you afford to keep them if they do drop in price. We do this this for enjoyment and if we make some money all the better. Its a matter of how much do you enjoy getting that rush of owning some hard to find coins. Its even beter if you buy low and sell high, rather that the reverse of that situation. I do miss my former # 1 set and getting new coins is much more expensive that the first time around, and harder to find " The Best"... there is something to be said for owning the best.......

You dont get many chances to do that and when you do its always more expensive......

Bcsican

P.S. Supercoin is right on....

washvarieties

WELL WONDER COIN
you do not do shows, and high grade Washington with eye appeal sold very well!!!!!!!! LINCOLNS I wish I had more with me,the same with JEFFERSONS so if you want to put some coins back into the market bring what you have to sell at the next major show and you will do well SET UP LIKE MOST DEALERS DO !!!!!! oh yes buy low (like FRANKLINS now and sell later)



ZAPSCOINS
Bob

still looking for a AU or better (11-O-1) 1943

keets

hey wondercoin

i'd think a good approach would be to sell, while holding onto key dates that will hold their value if things fall off a bit. then do a little "prospecting" and put at least some of your profit into whatever area you think is gonna takeoff. i'm looking into classic's now myself----but if you part with your moderns, i'll be in line!!

Spooly

Wondercoin, I am glad you made this post! I am looking forward to hearing everyone thinks.

wondercoin

"oh yes buy low (like FRANKLINS now and sell later)"

Bob: You raised an interesting example. THESE FRANKLINS USED TO BE HIGH!! You will notice in my first post to this thread I intentionally left Franklins off the list of series that have exploded. Why? While "pop 1" and "pop 2" have exploded, the vast majority of dates in the series appear to have corrected significantly downward - don't you agree? Didn't that blast white 53(s) in 65FBL in the Heritage sale last week fetch just a fraction of what it would have commanded a couple years ago? Same with that blast white 51(d), etc. I remember when coins like the 51(d), 52(d), 53(d) Franklins, etc. (average toned) were being priced at $8,000+/coin and have dropped as much as 75% off those levels. I'm not knocking Franklins here (in fact, I never even considered selling off the bulk of my personal collection), but this is an example of a series that has many coins priced today at a fraction of where they were 2-3 years ago. Wondercoin.

LincolnCentMan

I think about this topic daily. I can get about 60% more for my collection than I have in it (and that's AFTER I concider e-bay fees). I just paid my car off. I've got a long way to pay my truck off, and then I plan on buying a house. If I cashed out now, I could just about pay my truck off. So the decision weighs heavy on me. For now I'm keeping my set. If I were to sell out, though. You can bet the whole thing wouldnt be liquidated. I would certainly keep the ones where after I saw them, I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. I have MANY examples in my set that are the nicest of 5+ that I've had in that date in the same grade. If I were to sell out, I dont think I could ever put another set together as nice as the one I have now. That is the biggest reason I'm keeping my set. ...for now.

David

braddick

I think of this too (Great Thread, Mitch). Each time I ponder getting out of a Registry and collecting something else I think of Matt and his #1 set of Kennedies. I'll never have a #1 set, but if I continue to plug upgrades into mine I should be able to maintain this set in the top five.

Again, I think about Matt and his set. At the time, it sold VERY well (I'll let Matt discuss the price, if he chooses to). Here we are today, and now, Matt is one of my biggest competitors when it comes to bidding on eBay (and Teletrade Matt, or is that someone else?) for some of the MS67's. It wasn't long after Matt sold his set he began a second set- one he was pleased would be filled with eye appeal coins rather than grade.
Even Matt will admit (and I'm not talking out of school here- everything has been discussed on this forum) the shift is now on building not just an eye appealing set but one of the finer known (#2?) sets.

See, I know I'd end up doing the same thing! So, thanks to Matt, I've saved myself from selling and will just continue building.

-Unless you loose the collecting spirit, I wouldn't recommend selling!

keithdagen

I recently sold off about half the pieces in my Modern Type set and retired it, selling the extras to many board members and helping strengthen other sets in competition. Looking back, I almost wish that I had stayed in competition, and kept the pieces. It probably won't be long until I decide to make a go of it again.

However, I was able to use the proceeds to finish up my 20th Century sets and get some great upgrades, so I don't regret shifting the resources from one collection to another.

Keith

howie08

Wondercoin :
You're a dealer , right ? So you're in it for the money , at least for some series. Like most dealers , you would have started as a collector first , so have some series that have a value to you other than monetary. Keep the coins you value as a collector , and sell the ones that you aren't really attached to. If the ones you keep decrease in value , but they're coins that you're attached to , who cares ? As long as these coins are bought with discretionary income , it doesn't really matter , does it ? I also have some completed series that I could " cash out " and make a nice profit , but that isn't why I started collecting them. I use some of the overtime I get from work to buy coins that I like , and that makes it easier for me to go to work when I'd rather be enjoying my days off. I just figure " hey , now I can buy that coin I'd like to get to upgrade my set." I'm not trying to use this hobby as a substitute for retirement investments , where if the coin market crashed (again ) , which it will do , that I hurt myself for future comforts. I can imagine that if you're a big dealer , and derive a large income from sales , that it would be tough to hang onto something that you could gain a monetary profit from , but if you sold your favorites , why wouldn't you want to replace them further down the road ? Something attracted you to them , and why would making a profit on them change that ? You'd go back to them. And if the prices didn't decrease , you'd have to pay more to replace them then you made , so why sell them in the first place ? Just my thoughts; good luck with whatever you plan to do.
Howie

wondercoin

Howie: I collect neat silver MS Wash quarters, raw, PCGS, NGC- doesn't matter. I also sell them. Again, my question was intended to be more general in nature though. Is this the time to "cash out" those series that have skyrocketed, or sit back and see if much larger gains are just around the corner? Wondercoin.

coynclecter

I wouldn't say it is time to "cash out" but it never hurts to take some profit and either branch into other areas of coin collecting or into other investments. Some may say the prices will continue to skyrocket (they have all they can buy) others say the price are going to crash (they don't own any). The best advise in any investing is " don't put all your eggs in one basket" If 85% of your coins are in the same category and have all gone up a lot lately, then you really need to diversify for protection. Best into areas that are selling at low points but have a tract record. Sonner or later the current "hot" coins are going to reach resistance. There are also a number of people who have only short term money invested and will be forced to pull out when the prices stop climbing. This will provide a certain amount of price pressure. Keep some sell some.

Of course you should keep most of the coins you like to own.

DHeath

One of the simple strategies for people who buy stock as an retirement vehicle might make sense to coin collectors as well. Simply put, if you invest a set amount each month in a certain stock, when stock is expensive you are able to purchase only a small number of shares, yet when prices drop you are able to get many more shares for your money. Employing this strategy, you'll end up owning very few shares that are priced at the market peak and many shares that are priced at the market bottom. The question asked at the beginning of the thread assumes a) that you would sell your coins if the price were right b) that your collecting goals are short term, or c) that you feel there are certain segments of the market that are undervalued and certain ones that are overvalued. If the reason is C then simply buying in the area that is undervalued for now and not selling anything seems the best long term strategy. Who knows what the coins you collect will be worth in 20 years. Would anybody here have guessed that Ikes would be as valuable as they are 20 years ago? I never would have.

Bcsican

Thanks Pat for the vote of confidence in my corrner.

I think we all think about selling our coins from time to time. I also think the main factor to sell is money!. If you dont need the money dont sell . I`ve had a lot of time to think about the money invested in my former set. I didnt need the money but I had an offer. Mitch offered to sell it for me and I honestly did it on a whim.

I was happy about the deal, but after a short while I missed owning the best the former # 1 set. I was lucky enough not only to have the best set in grades, but also to have some of the most eye appealing coins in MS Kennedys available. It was truly # 1 .

The set "points" of 66.99 has been only exceeded by:
Mr Richard Green in which he was lucky enough to pick what he wanted from my former set. He has now one incrediable never to be topped # one registry set. Had I not sold mine it would be a soild # 2. Trying to get back to # 1.

I wish now that I hadn`t sold it. With a few upgrades no one could beat it. I still think about the money going into this new set, the coins are much more expensive not quite the quality in all respects but I upgrade all coins when I find better ones. My main concern in MS Kennedys they are hot now, so more people are looking to find them raw.

As more coins are sent in its a matter of time before some years are no longer scarce. Many will become very common. It will be interesting to see what happens to this series.

The total money I had into the coins I sold was about 8500.00 dollars. I sold the set for about 16000.00 all said and done. I was happy with about 50% profit at the time, I think I did very well. Had I sold in this market I think the set would now bring closer to 25000.00 if not 30000.00.

Pat, I know how much you enjoy coins and I know you like the Kennedys, you knew the MS 66s just wasnt enough for me. If you were to sell your set you will be doing what im now doing paying top dollar to get back into the game. The coins that are in your set now will cost you double.You would miss the thrill of the hunt. Not to mention the quality is not as easy to find.

Its also interesting to see how this "registry" has driven the prices of coins up and up. Trying to get the best is now more expensive than ever. It can also be driven by just a few people looking for the same coin, that part is scary. You can pay top dollar then the next week get a great deal.

Bottom line and this is from experience if you dont NEED the money dont sell, so many of the coins in your set you simply cant replace.

Pat I hope you and I dont drive these prices up that we have to sell....

littlewicher

I had an offer recently to buy my modern type set (1950-present) which is only 20% complete! I could've made $100 profit. But, all my love and sweat is going in to that collection right now. I said no.

wondercoin

"The total money I had into the set I sold was about 8500.00 dollars. I sold the set for 16000.00 all said and done. I was happy with about 50% profit at the time, I think I did very well. Had I sold in this market I think the set would now bring closer to 25000.00 if not 30000.00."

Matt: I believe it may have been a bit more than the $16k actually including the gold, but either way, interestingly, had the proceeds from the sale of the Kennedys all been placed in gold bullion that value would have been approaching $25k as well! Wondercoin.

littlewicher

Get a little richer why don't you.

MJCoin

I have sold many coins lately that will more than likely come back and bite me from a pure profit perspective, but I also have coins that have seen huge increases in value recently that I will not sell even if they double or triple from here. These are my keepers. I will ride these coins from now on, through the peaks and valleys, because I have believed in them from day one even when no one else wanted them. The same can be said for the Jeffersons, Washingtons, and Lincolns of late. Congratulations to all who have believed in their series of choice, and stuck with them through the good times and the bad times. Some truly wonderful sets have been assembled because of this train of thought. LET IT RIDE!

braddick

Also Matt, if you paid about $8,500 and sold for almost $17,000 you doubled your money and made a 100% profit (not 50%).

Cocoinut

If you have no specific alternate use for the funds, let it ride. Otherwise, what would you do with the proceeds? The stock market has been pretty shaky, CD's are paying peanuts, real estate (here, at least) seems overvalued and poised for a drop. At least most nice coins have been steady or have increased in value.

If you need the funds, keep the cream of your collection. Ask yourself "In 5 years, will I miss the beauty of this coin, or will it be nearly impossible to replace?" If the answer is "yes", keep the coin. If it's a generic coin that can be found at any major show and holds no special appeal for you, go ahead and sell. I took this approach nearly 23 years ago when I was buying a house and, other than missing the market peak in early 1980 by a few months, have had no regrets. A lot of the coins I sold have since been replaced with better specimens.

There are probably some segments of the coin market that are ripe for profit-taking, but as some have pointed out already, high-end material is always in demand, and you may regret selling your best coins if you later decide to return to collecting.


Jim

oreville

I am hope prices don't jump up too rapidly.

There is no longer a question that prices are rising. The key is to temper the increases to allow the newer collectors to get more entrenched in the areas of collecting beyong the statehood quarters, etc.

Also too fast of a price rise will burn itself out. That is what happend to the spectacular toned Franklins. The Franklins will now need to rebuild its base.

As far as advice..... fairlaneman's and supercoins's advice were dead on.

What you cannot replace don't sell at any price if you cannot replace easily enough.

What you can easily replace sell when you have a gut feel that you can use the profits to get other coins you desire more or buid a cash reserve to be ready to buy such coins.

In this regard, I tried to keep some funds available and just picked up a nice choice BU roll of 1943-D quarters.

oreville

I also am hope that I can write better too!

cladking

Yes, I have long worried that this advance could be meteororic and be followed by a spectacular crash.
In fact it seems a virtual certainty. Collectibles tend to be items which are extremely common when in use and are also frequently resented or even hated by many. Certainly modern coins fit this to a "T". Since
they took so long to become appreciated their price movement is quite rapid. This is likely to accelerate further as very few people have gotten into the modern coin market to date. Certainly many people are collecting moderns, but they are getting them from circulation or non-traditional sources. Few are in the market. How high the demand goes is difficuld to predict, but if it's as many as the last peak in 1964, then this market does have a long way to go. It could go on for years. New collectors may well be discouraged by prices for choice coins. I think it is imperative to the hobby to retain as many new collectors as possible since we don't know how successfull we'll be. But it is this very thing which will contribute to future overpricing and cause the collapse when the number of new collectors ceases to grow. There are many detriments to increasing prices, but there is no alternative.

flykite

one of the reasons for the dropoff in Franklin prices is
the dramatic change in grading criteria! Coins that would struggle
to come back 64 now come back 65!! This shatters confidence in the POP
reports because everybody goes "crack-out" crazy hoping for the
pot-o-gold. Look at the increase in '65 coins in the last year +!
I just got some stuff back, and HALF came back 65! That would
never happen 3 years ago, and I have a group in now that will
prob. come back 66FBL. Part of this is that for years, NO ONE
knew how to grade these properly....your thoughts?

wondercoin

Flykite: I agree with you that it is a bit easier to "make" a Franklin (MS or PR) these days as compared to a few years back, but the drop in prices, imho, has as much to do with the decreasing interest level of collectors in the series. Otherwise, a coin like that blast white 1953(s) Franklin in PCGS-MS65FBL would have never sold for less than $9,000 (with buyers fee) last week in the Heritage sale. That can only happen when there is decreased collector demand to build SETS of finest known Franklins. Other key date Franklins also performed poorly, imho, in that auction, at a time when prices for top notch 20th century coins are increasing.

Now, consider this. PCGS had only graded -5- regular issue MS Wash quarters in PCGS-MS68 since it opened its doors some 14 or15 years ago. But, they graded -3- last weekend alone at Central States!! 5 in 14 years and 3 more last weekend!! But, guess what, the price of all (3) fresh coins (each being offered to me) is each MORE than what the first coin or second coin ever graded MS68 sold for!! Why? Because, OF DEMAND of course. It clearly became easier to "make" MS68 quarters this past weekend but, imho, that did nothing to lower price whatsoever. If I pass on one or more of these quarters, no doubt there will be someone right behind me to consider the coins. This is clearly not the case today with Franklins (other than those "pop 1" or "2" pieces) imho. Wondercoin.

coynclecter

Lets not forget the rules in any type of non fixed investment. They run in cycles. This is the same with real estate, collectables, stocks etc. The biggest mistake people make is looking at short history. Just because something has gone up five years in a row doesn't mean it will continue to climb to infinity. How many people thought stocks would climb forever or that resal estate prices would never come down. They all move in cycles.
In 1989 I sold off most of my collection because I knew prices were real high. I was lucky to hit the peak. My only mistake was I decided to save the highest grades. I finally sold the MS65 Morgans for $120 instead of $900 etc. Those who sold the high grades and saved the circulated stuff fared much better than I did. Those who saved everything and bought more were crying for years. The biggest mistake to make when prices keep rising is to keep buying with no plan for selling.
I still advise, save a little, sell a little, and make it a cross section of the collection.

flykite

Yes, Franklins are down right now, and quarters are sky high, BUT
you reinforce my premise concerning grading guidelines- 3 at
the Central States?? Again, there is GREAT DANGER AHEAD if
grading standards are "shifting". This is what "slabs" was
supposed to prevent! If my resubmissions all come back 66fbl,
then I am OUT COMPLETELY, and I am a LIFELONG Franklin collector!
I can make a nice added income just going to regional shows
picking up "raw" coins for a song and getting 65fbl much
easier than I used to!!

wondercoin

"3 at
the Central States??"

In all fairness to PCGS, I just got in the mail the first of the three latest PCGS-MS68 Wash silver quarters graded by dealers at Central States. The coin is, in a word, SPECTACULAR. It is a MONSTER TONED 1947(s) COLOR COIN with an obverse that competes with Gregg Bingham's 1949(d) quarter in the NGC-MS68 holder and is in Gregg's type collection and is one of the most magnificant Wash quarters I have ever seen. I'll post a scan of the 1947(s) quarter either here or on my site later this week Wondercoin.

keets

flykite

your impresion seems to be that all the upgrades in the franklins are a result of crackouts being upgraded. with the rise in prices and the increased market awareness, and in general just the line of thinking of this thread, don't you think that lately there are some nicer coins getting pulled out and dusted off, coins that have been salted away for just such a time frame? maybe i'm naive or just overly optimistic, but i see that as the positive side of the rising prices. people holding quality, material who are in wondercoins shoes are dumping some really fine stuff. maybe that's how the quarters he speaks of came to be, cause from mitch's opinion they are deserving of the 68 grade. look how some people have spoken of past run-ups where they've sold off. i believe that each time this happens---late 70's, 89 and 94 come to mind---some ussually not offered coins appear. that's to all our advantage, buyers and sellers.

supercoin

I don't know about the Franklin grading, but keets makes a good point about prices.

In Ikes, for example, I've long wished for more widespread acceptance so more collectors and dealers were looking for them. It's very tough to find nice examples and hopefully some sustained high prices will pry some more out of hiding.

khayse

I've never sold any stock. Don't know when to sell, don't think
the professionals know very well either.

The problem with saying a series, say Ikes, have hit a peak
is that most of the people saying that don't have any highest graded
Ikes. And most of the people with the highest graded Ikes aren't
confident enough of a peak (that they will be able to buy the same
quality coins for less in the future) to sell.

It was easier for one guy to sell off his second set when the prices
looked good because he still had a set. Another guy sold a couple high grade
Ikes to lock in some profit with coins he thought he would be able to
replace.

What keeps me from selling some of my "spares" is the inconsistency
of selling prices. I've seen semi-rare Ikes (72-D in 66, 76-D T1 in 66)
sell for $300 and I've seen them sell for $600 when get the right
bidders wanting the coin. If I could get $600 I'll sell. If I'll
only get $300, I'll hold on to them. But who can tell me what the
next Ike will sell for? The last MS67 went for $1100 when the seller
said he expected $2500. I don't want to be the guy who finds out
prices peaked in the previous auction.

So like my stocks I'll continue to try to buy regularly and get some
good deals and expect to pay too much at times but hold my selling
until I need the money or I'm relatively certain.

-KHayse

cladking

Certainly save some sell some is sound advice. And no doubt conservatism and a recognition of cycles
is critical to wise investing. The changes occurring in the coin market, however, are not short term changes or fads which will come and go overnight. Large numbers of people ARE collecting coins--that is the states quarters. Many will tire and drop out, but many more will continue. They will notice in a few years that the older states quarters are showing signs of wear. They'll notice some of the old eagle reverse issues are still high grade. This and many other observations will raise their curiosity which is
the basis of collecting. Some of these people will expand their interests to other series and become hooked on collecting. These people will pour into the hobby for years to come. They will be the next generation of collectors. As long as the number of collectors is increasing the prices of the coins they collect will increase. It does not have to be a straight line increase, it can be wildly erratic or even a geometric increase. There are unforseeable events which can derail these trends, but should this occur there may well not be a next generation of collectors.

oreville

Wondercoin: I wonder if my coin which is also a monster toned 1947-S PCGS MS-67 quarter will also make a 68?

Reverse of 1947-S........can't find the obverse!!

I bought it from Ellesmere when I wanted just one nicely toned quarter for my collection which are all otherwise essentially white or slightly toned washies.

Time for another look by me.

Hoping to find lots of MS67 in a roll of 1943-D Ch. BU roll I am going to receive. LOL.

wondercoin

"Wondercoin: I wonder if my coin which is also a monster toned 1947-S PCGS MS-67 quarter will also make a 68?"

Oreville: As you know, there is only one way to find out!!

I know I plan to gather up a handful of my nicest pieces and submit them in a couple weeks, as well as probably again at the Long Beach show in June.

What are our odds? Well, in the past 14 years, PCGS has only graded (9) 1932-1964 quarters in MS68 grade (including the SMS coin) and to my knowledge (7) of the (9) coins were "made" by just (2) of the sharpest coin dealers in the country!! I also finally made one earlier this year and a small coin dealer just recent graded that 1947(s) at Central States. Tough odds thus far!! Wondercoin.

flykite

Keets:

I will repeat the mantra "look at the POP reports! If 1,000,
5,000, 50,000 dollar Franklins over the last several years
didn't bring coins off the sidelines, then nothing will!
Adn I wasn't just talking crackouts! I have actively been
buying raw coins at shows for the last 5 years, Franklins
only (that's all I collect), of consistent quality, and
it is MUCH EASIER now to attain 65FBL.

If grading standards are indeed shifting in general, then
I AM GETTING OUT OF OWNING COINS COMPLETELY, because the whole
purpose of certification was to limit subjectivity, and to
insure grade integrity. How can any of be sure what are stuff
is worth, if we can't accurately qualify it?

keets

hey flykite----every series that gains in popularity is going to "suffer" in terms of increased certification. all those big dollar coins your speaking of have been in the last 18 months or so and it seems that the market for franklins has regained a little sanity. despite what you may believe, those high prices bring coins out looking for the same $$$$. consider all the different factors working here, the way are "hobby" is getting more sophisticated. i'll agree with you that graders are affected by the phenomenon we're going through now, but you seem a little agitated cause maybe the value of what you have is starting to slip.

al h.

cladking

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, gem coins today will still be gem coins tomorrow. Sure
the market or the grading companies may start calling some or many of the choice coins gem, but
they still won't be as nice. Surely as a rule of thumb it is the entire scale shifting when these changes
are made, and in any case the best is still the best.

wondercoin

"in any case the best is still the best."

Cladking: You hit the nail on the head! We just witnessed at the Heritage Central States sale, common date MS67 silver quarters (worth maybe $300 in the grade for a typical coin) selling for upwards of $4,000+ because the coins were exceptional for grade (check out what the 51(s) sold for in that auction - I wouldn't be surprised to see a MS68 of this date appear in the next 90 days on the pop report or over at NGC)!! So, even if a coin that might be considered "low end" slips through (and the assumption is the coin would not have graded that way a couple years ago) it may have little impact on the super PQ+ piece that was graded a few years ago even though the holder says the same grade (another example of this would be the 1946(s) quarter in PCGS-MS67 from that same sale which realized close to 4x the "typical coin" price. Wondercoin.

flykite

Keets:

Not at all; I've been in Franklins sooo long that most of
my Registry coins were acquired cheap. My issue is
CONSISTENT grading. A 65 yesterday should be a 65 today, etc...
OK, I will stop ranting, and I will get back to trying to
prove that 1958-P Franklins with the type 2 reverse (in 65FBL+)
are the RAREST, and that 1949-S "prooflikes" are actually
branch mint proofs!

supercoin

Grading standards shift all the time, unfortunately. If standards are looser when the time comes to sell, and assuming you've bought them with an eye for quality, send 'em all in for upgrades. Or leave them in their coveted old holders and sell them at a public auction -- let the bidders dream about upgrades.

Either way makes the grading services a little richer at our expense, but that's part of the price paid for the benefits.

MoneyLA

Old Wall Street saying (which is applicable to the coin market):

"No one ever went broke taking a profit."

cheers, alan mendelson

supercoin

And like all old Wall Street sayings... Traders go bust all the time by taking profits too soon (and letting losses ride).

Same would apply if you were a coin speculator and you took small profits on winners and let your losers sit around tying up capital. Your losers may not be as big as in stock trading, but your transaction and incidental costs are many times higher.