I see a short term repeat of 08-early 09 performance. With no change in fundamentals in sight I expect a continuation of the post 09 performance. I believe the long term bull to be fully intact until world currency/debt crisis is responsibly resolved. I don't expect that to occur, ever.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
All I see is a trending up line for the last 10 years. Corrupt Bankers and G'ment, deficit spending, $16T+ debt. I really don't see a mountian forming on the graph in the future, just more of a ski slope like it already is.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Obviously charts are records, not predictive. That being said, it sure looks as if we are in a lull before the next rise.......oh well, patience is a virtue. Cheers, RickO
<< <i>Obviously charts are records, not predictive. That being said, it sure looks as if we are in a lull before the next rise.......oh well, patience is a virtue. Cheers, RickO >>
Charts are highly predictive. But ignorance is OK.
I am very bullish on silver, both fundamentally and technically. However, from the technical side , silver charts seem to reflect less of the market supply/demand characteristics and more of the auto-program short sales which follow some artificial agenda of a group who are referred to as "the usual suspects," (sometimes called the Big 4). Regardless of fundamental market principles, until "those suspects" decide to let the silver price follow supply/demand pricing or they decide to manage its upward movement in a regulated fashion, it is stuck sideways, rangebound. Like Ricko says, patience, patience, patience... I suppose the good news is that with all of the extraordinary inflationary pressures in place, and more coming, it is difficult to imagine a circumstance in which there is ANY downside risk to price unless everything collapses, in which case, it won't matter. I really liked a quote from one of the silver gurus who commented, "I know how to price silver, I just can't tell how to value it." Or something to that effect.
Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
<< <i>Derryb you looking for a 50% drop in silver? >>
drop, yes. 50%, no. currently ultra short on silver (X3 - DSLV). Looking to buy at least three monster boxes when i think the low is in (2012 W $50 unc. AGE profits).
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Not being a chart reader, it does look like you could overlay the 2008-2009 chart right on top of the most recent activity and get a match. The thing that would bother me about that is that in October '2008 it was Lehman. I don't know that we had a comparable event in the summer of 2011, unless you could take the economic picture as a whole to be the event.
I believe them when they are saying that the markets are so screwed up that there is no real price discovery and that malinvestment is being caused by government policy. You have to look around, take it all in and hope that you still understand what's important in the long range scope of things.
Numbers don't lie. The banks are not your friend.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
That 2008-2009 overlap is quite interesting in that it went 69 weeks before the final breakout and 4th attempt to regain $1,000 began.
The current trend will be entering week 69 on Monday. Gold has made 3 attempts at $1800 so far.
Can't forget that gold made mince meat out of the last "bearish" contracting wedge formed from 2008-2010....as it broke out above that wedge at $1300+ and headed to $1900. What's ironic is that "old" broken upper wedge line is still very much in play. In fact it's parallel to the 2002-2010 uptrend line (log chart). And this key 2008-2010 upper wedge line is once again being retested from above. It's within $25 away right around the $1673 low on this current daily cycle.
markets are so screwed up that there is no real price discovery
No matter how screwed up, there is always a price. This is discovery. That price may not be what you think it should it be, but that price is always where the market thinks in should be at that time.
While we are reminiscing how ' bout someone link to the thread I started last year with the first chart in this thread commenting that the uptrend was broken and sideways trading was now in order. Lets look at the comments from the collective in that thread.
BTW- I sure hope gold doesn't go back to 1000, Cruz I'm gonna have one heck of a bellyache from laughter.
<< <i>Definition of 'Price Discovery' from investopedia.com:
"A method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market."
I also would argue that there is no true price discovery in manipulated markets. The purpose of market manipulation is to distort prices. >>
It is very easy to look past simplicity. The price is what the price is. Investors always fall back on manipulation and conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the price. But the truth is that the price at any given time is the price.
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right?
It is very easy to look past simplicity. The price is what the price is. Investors always fall back on manipulation and conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the price. But the truth is that the price at any given time is the price.
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right?
They aren't holding the price down, but managing when it rises and falls along the way. This way they can profit from that movement and earn patriotic points with the govt (ie no effective prosecutions for whatever misdeeds they perform). I think $300 TRILL in otc derivatives held by our top 6 banks supports this theory. Simplicity must also encompass the otc derivative's positions into the equation....and that includes the $200 BILL/14 year world silver production paper position that was held in July 2008. It doesn't get much simpler than this. Manipulation/management is the the only way to explain these ridiculous positions. Unlike futures, the otc derivative's positions are basically one sided.
<< <i>Definition of 'Price Discovery' from investopedia.com:
"A method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market."
I also would argue that there is no true price discovery in manipulated markets. The purpose of market manipulation is to distort prices. >>
It is very easy to look past simplicity. The price is what the price is. Investors always fall back on manipulation and conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the price. But the truth is that the price at any given time is the price.
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right? >>
The post was about undistored price discovery, the result of an unadultered market.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
My motivation for owning bullion isn't because the line on the chart ought to be going from the lower left to the upper right. Why do I own bullion? Let me count the ways:
1) Because it needs no government guarantees. If you haven't noticed lately, government guarantees only exist for the convenience of those persons who are in the government. Similarly, most laws don't apply to governments in the same ways that they apply to individuals.
2) There's no counterparty risk. Nobody else has a claim on any of the bullion that you or I own. Conversely, just about every piece of paper or electronic entry into an account these days represents the risk you are willing to take by leaving it exposed to the system, in that account or piece of paper. It can all be evaporated by tptb or by illicit top managements, when the "necessity" arises - and you have about zero recourse.
3) It's an automatic hedge against government monetary mismanagement/inflation. All it has to do is to sit there. No ledger entries, no forms to fill out. The nominal "value" attached to bullion is only nominal. The number of ounces is discreet and finite - it doesn't change unless you change it. If the government screws up the value of the dollar, bullion automatically adjusts to the reality of prices.
4) A hedge against sovereign default risk. Like it or not, the government spending and debt levels are not sustainable. If that weren't bad enough, we now have a system wherein the facts are not reported, the data is changed, and there is no way for any non-insider to evaluate the condition of the system. This is extremely hazardous to your personal finances, in my opinion. Holding some bullion tends to remove you at least one step away from what I see as an inevitable financial shakeout. Holding "enough" cash in reserve tends to remove you a second step away from ground zero when it happens.
I'd rather be 2 steps away from ground zero with some degree of awareness, than standing there oblivious to it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
jmski52 -- I also hold gold for many of these reasons, though I have to admit to there is a more "primal" reason as well -- I like the stuff.
I don't quite agree that there "is no way for any non-insider to evaluate the condition of the system". I think there is enough publicly available information so that someone trained in finance can get as good a sense of the range of possible outcomes as an insider; but, the future is so dependent on unpredictable factors -- geopolitical factors, the possibility of innovations in energy, etc -- that none of us can really project with any certainty. Publicly available information will tell us that in addition to the explicit US debt, there is a tremendous overhang (> $ 50 trillion) in unfunded pension and medical promises. It is profoundly unlikely that these will be paid off with economic growth; with political will, these liabilities don't need to crash the system - my guess we will follow the path that Churchill would have predicted -- we'll do the right thing after exhausting all other alternatives. In the meantime, having some gold is not a bad idea.
In light of recent commentary I thought this might be a good thread to bump.
Why did I see what I saw? Admittedly I was partially wrong in that there wasnt much sideways action--gold plummeted to $1179 in 6 months- but then traded roughly between 1250-1300 for the next 5 years.
Ill also admit to baiting derryb here. I know, Im a jerk, but the pull and tug goes both ways. I felt pretty strongly that if gold dropped, silver would drop much more. It fell from about $34 to 18--almost 50%--in six months, and traded roughly around $16-17 for 5 years. I hope derryb profited handsomely on his silver short position.
There was also mention in this thread about charts not being predictive. If so, then im either "them" or "they" or Nostradamus, or just some schmuck that has devoted a tremendous amount of study to TA, the economy, investor psychology, and inter-market relationships. Take your pick.
There is also discussion of "fundamentals", which as time has proven over the last 7 years, meant nothing. Perhaps "fundamentals" will have greater bearing over the next 7 years. Im sure we all have our fingers crossed.
And we have the gratuitous manipulation blah, blah, blah.
Also, great discourse as always from Higashiyama. I particularly like his Churchill reference.
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>I see a very strong bull trend, what do you see? >>
Another year of sideways with a visit to 1300 increasingly likely.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I knew it would happen.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Or not.
Got quoins?
<< <i>Log scale. >>
I posted both log and arithmatic.
Derryb you looking for a 50% drop in silver?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Obviously charts are records, not predictive. That being said, it sure looks as if we are in a lull before the next rise.......oh well, patience is a virtue. Cheers, RickO >>
Charts are highly predictive. But ignorance is OK.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I suppose the good news is that with all of the extraordinary inflationary pressures in place, and more coming, it is difficult to imagine a circumstance in which there is ANY downside risk to price unless everything collapses, in which case, it won't matter. I really liked a quote from one of the silver gurus who commented, "I know how to price silver, I just can't tell how to value it." Or something to that effect.
<< <i>Derryb you looking for a 50% drop in silver? >>
drop, yes. 50%, no. currently ultra short on silver (X3 - DSLV). Looking to buy at least three monster boxes when i think the low is in (2012 W $50 unc. AGE profits).
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I believe them when they are saying that the markets are so screwed up that there is no real price discovery and that malinvestment is being caused by government policy. You have to look around, take it all in and hope that you still understand what's important in the long range scope of things.
Numbers don't lie. The banks are not your friend.
I knew it would happen.
Wakey, wakey.
The current trend will be entering week 69 on Monday. Gold has made 3 attempts at $1800 so far.
Can't forget that gold made mince meat out of the last "bearish" contracting wedge formed from 2008-2010....as it broke out above that wedge at $1300+ and headed to $1900.
What's ironic is that "old" broken upper wedge line is still very much in play. In fact it's parallel to the 2002-2010 uptrend line (log chart). And this key 2008-2010 upper wedge
line is once again being retested from above. It's within $25 away right around the $1673 low on this current daily cycle.
I knew it would happen.
No matter how screwed up, there is always a price. This is discovery. That price may not be what you think it should it be, but that price is always where the market thinks in should be at that time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"A method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market."
I also would argue that there is no true price discovery in manipulated markets. The purpose of market manipulation is to distort prices.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>*fixed* >>
While we are reminiscing how ' bout someone link to the thread I started last year with the first chart in this thread commenting that the uptrend was broken and sideways trading was now in order. Lets look at the comments from the collective in that thread.
BTW- I sure hope gold doesn't go back to 1000, Cruz I'm gonna have one heck of a bellyache from laughter.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Definition of 'Price Discovery' from investopedia.com:
"A method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market."
I also would argue that there is no true price discovery in manipulated markets. The purpose of market manipulation is to distort prices. >>
It is very easy to look past simplicity. The price is what the price is. Investors always fall back on manipulation and conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the price. But the truth is that the price at any given time is the price.
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right?
They aren't holding the price down, but managing when it rises and falls along the way. This way they can profit from that movement and earn patriotic points with the govt (ie no effective prosecutions for whatever misdeeds they perform). I think $300 TRILL in otc derivatives held by our top 6 banks supports this theory. Simplicity must also encompass the
otc derivative's positions into the equation....and that includes the $200 BILL/14 year world silver production paper position that was held in July 2008. It doesn't get much simpler than
this. Manipulation/management is the the only way to explain these ridiculous positions. Unlike futures, the otc derivative's positions are basically one sided.
<< <i>
<< <i>Definition of 'Price Discovery' from investopedia.com:
"A method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market."
I also would argue that there is no true price discovery in manipulated markets. The purpose of market manipulation is to distort prices. >>
It is very easy to look past simplicity. The price is what the price is. Investors always fall back on manipulation and conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the price. But the truth is that the price at any given time is the price.
And the most obvious comment for the manipulative short sellers idea is to simply look at the charts. If the " big 4" are holding silver down then why does the chart go from the lower left to the upper right? >>
The post was about undistored price discovery, the result of an unadultered market.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
1) Because it needs no government guarantees. If you haven't noticed lately, government guarantees only exist for the convenience of those persons who are in the government. Similarly, most laws don't apply to governments in the same ways that they apply to individuals.
2) There's no counterparty risk. Nobody else has a claim on any of the bullion that you or I own. Conversely, just about every piece of paper or electronic entry into an account these days represents the risk you are willing to take by leaving it exposed to the system, in that account or piece of paper. It can all be evaporated by tptb or by illicit top managements, when the "necessity" arises - and you have about zero recourse.
3) It's an automatic hedge against government monetary mismanagement/inflation. All it has to do is to sit there. No ledger entries, no forms to fill out. The nominal "value" attached to bullion is only nominal. The number of ounces is discreet and finite - it doesn't change unless you change it. If the government screws up the value of the dollar, bullion automatically adjusts to the reality of prices.
4) A hedge against sovereign default risk. Like it or not, the government spending and debt levels are not sustainable. If that weren't bad enough, we now have a system wherein the facts are not reported, the data is changed, and there is no way for any non-insider to evaluate the condition of the system. This is extremely hazardous to your personal finances, in my opinion. Holding some bullion tends to remove you at least one step away from what I see as an inevitable financial shakeout. Holding "enough" cash in reserve tends to remove you a second step away from ground zero when it happens.
I'd rather be 2 steps away from ground zero with some degree of awareness, than standing there oblivious to it.
I knew it would happen.
I don't quite agree that there "is no way for any non-insider to evaluate the condition of the system". I think there is enough publicly available information so that someone trained in finance can get as good a sense of the range of possible outcomes as an insider; but, the future is so dependent on unpredictable factors -- geopolitical factors, the possibility of innovations in energy, etc -- that none of us can really project with any certainty. Publicly available information will tell us that in addition to the explicit US debt, there is a tremendous overhang (> $ 50 trillion) in unfunded pension and medical promises. It is profoundly unlikely that these will be paid off with economic growth; with political will, these liabilities don't need to crash the system - my guess we will follow the path that Churchill would have predicted -- we'll do the right thing after exhausting all other alternatives. In the meantime, having some gold is not a bad idea.
In light of recent commentary I thought this might be a good thread to bump.
Why did I see what I saw? Admittedly I was partially wrong in that there wasnt much sideways action--gold plummeted to $1179 in 6 months- but then traded roughly between 1250-1300 for the next 5 years.
Ill also admit to baiting derryb here. I know, Im a jerk, but the pull and tug goes both ways. I felt pretty strongly that if gold dropped, silver would drop much more. It fell from about $34 to 18--almost 50%--in six months, and traded roughly around $16-17 for 5 years. I hope derryb profited handsomely on his silver short position.
There was also mention in this thread about charts not being predictive. If so, then im either "them" or "they" or Nostradamus, or just some schmuck that has devoted a tremendous amount of study to TA, the economy, investor psychology, and inter-market relationships. Take your pick.
There is also discussion of "fundamentals", which as time has proven over the last 7 years, meant nothing. Perhaps "fundamentals" will have greater bearing over the next 7 years. Im sure we all have our fingers crossed.
And we have the gratuitous manipulation blah, blah, blah.
Also, great discourse as always from Higashiyama. I particularly like his Churchill reference.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Wow! Almost a seven year “Yawn.”
The best is yet to come....ever the optimist
Cheers, RickO
when cohodk finally says something positive about PM's, I think we should go "all in"