Until real interest rates turn negative, I'm not too concerned about gold.
Do you mean until real interest rates go above 3%? Negative real interest rates are good for gold, I thought. Can they go too far negative? Please tell me that I'm not confused.
The current situation is far more extreme than in 1978-80. It only makes sense that the final multiple will easily eclipse the one seen in the 1970's. Just to balance debt on today's #'s already takes a multiple of 50X the 2001 low....and that debt is still growing rapidly. It may reach 100X before things even out. The question remaining is what multiple between 10X and 100X will this game end at? Those multiples in the 1970's may have only existed for a "few hours." But, there was months of preparation in 1979 to see it approaching. The first sign will be a doubling of the gold price within 6 months. Not even close to anything like that yet.
I agree. Lots of time to see it coming, and you'll know it when you see it. One of my concerns is just how far the debt can be advanced and just how much derivative overhang can be created without the system blowing up completely. It seems that the more incredulous I become, the more they pile on - long past the point of my own "suspension of disbelief".
If they can manage perception of reality so well, why can't it continue indefinitely? I'm beginning to wonder. The fact that I'm asking such a dumb question leads me to think that it can't go on much longer. Things change just about that time when you think they can always continue the way they always have.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> I agree. Lots of time to see it coming, and you'll know it when you see it. One of my concerns is just how far the debt can be advanced and just how much derivative overhang can be created without the system blowing up completely. It seems that the more incredulous I become, the more they pile on - long past the point of my own "suspension of disbelief".
If they can manage perception of reality so well, why can't it continue indefinitely? I'm beginning to wonder. The fact that I'm asking such a dumb question leads me to think that it can't go on much longer. Things change just about that time when you think they can always continue the way they always have. >>
You can't fool mother nature.
One society after another tries it ands they crumble into dust.
Mother nature doesn't give a damn about beliefs, assumptions, or the output of pencil whippers and axe grinders.
Do you mean until real interest rates go above 3%? Negative real interest rates are good for gold, I thought. Can they go too far negative? Please tell me that I'm not confused.
You got it right. I typed that wrong after stating the opposite just before it. With essentially a zero interest rate environment locked in for another 1-2 yrs, real rates remaining negative are a good bet. 80% of all otc derivatives are interest rate contracts helping to ensure that rates remain as is. About $250 TRILL of them held by US banks alone.
Was just watching the history channel. Found it quite coincidental that the world's mineral/land resources are worth about the same as the notional otc derivatives...approx $1.2 TRILL. I wonder if this was the target all along? Was also surprised to find out that all of the gold floating in the world's oceans only amounts to 15,000 tonnes, or about 10% of known above ground supplies. While a significant amount, it's only about equal to the amount the central banks have dumped on the market over the past 15 yrs. We're gonna need asteroid or moon gold to render gold useless.....the ocean is not going to cut it. Fwiw when one factors in the value of water, the final tally is 5X to 6X the $1.2 quad. If one tries to determine the value of replicating the biosphere, the numbers jump off the chart.
<< <i>Was just watching the history channel. Found it quite coincidental that the world's mineral/land resources are worth about the same as the notional otc derivatives...approx $1.2 TRILL. I wonder if this was the target all along? Was also surprised to find out that all of the gold floating in the world's oceans only amounts to 15,000 tonnes, or about 10% of known above ground supplies. While a significant amount, it's only about equal to the amount the central banks have dumped on the market over the past 15 yrs. We're gonna need asteroid or moon gold to render gold useless.....the ocean is not going to cut it. Fwiw when one factors in the value of water, the final tally is 5X to 6X the $1.2 quad. If one tries to determine the value of replicating the biosphere, the numbers jump off the chart. >>
Really? I suppose it depends as to who's song and dance routine you subscribe to.
"Ocean waters do hold gold – NEARLY 20 MILLION TONS of it. However, if you were hoping make your fortune mining the sea, consider this: Gold in the ocean is so dilute that its concentration is on the order of parts per trillion. Each liter of seawater contains, on average, about 13 billionths of a gram of gold."
So much for the History Channel. Should have checked my sources. Sea water gold is back on the table folks. This from another site (which may or not be accurate):
The concentration of gold in seawater is about 11 parts per trillion. To get one gram of gold, you'd need to process about 91,000,000 kg (about 89,000 m^3, 35 olympic swimming pools) of water, assuming you could extract 100% of it. 1 gram of gold is worth US$56. The gold is present as ions, you'd need to either precipitate it using some chemical and then filter out the particles or filter the water through some membrane that will bind to gold.
What precipitates gold from seawater? Whatever it is, start adding your costs for the chemical, and the waste management thereof. And the maintenance of those membranes.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think the technology you need to watch for ocean mining is steel cable, carbon nanotube, and molecularly woven material. There are gold rich nodules sitting on the ocean floor that can be harvested but they are at great depth and current materials aren't strong enough to pull up more than a little at a time.
Yesterday I sold my junk foreign silver to one of the large central buyers in L.A. and for the first time in a long time I got no resistance from that buyer. Usually I hear a lot of moaning about foreign junk but not this time.
Should I wonder if there is a shortage in the offing as they were glad to see me?
Usually I have to offer them a hanky when I bring my foreign junk in. Not this time.
Comments
Do you mean until real interest rates go above 3%? Negative real interest rates are good for gold, I thought. Can they go too far negative? Please tell me that I'm not confused.
The current situation is far more extreme than in 1978-80. It only makes sense that the final multiple will easily eclipse the one seen in the 1970's. Just to balance debt on today's #'s already takes a multiple of 50X the 2001 low....and that debt is still growing rapidly. It may reach 100X before things even out. The question remaining is what multiple between 10X and 100X will this game end at? Those multiples in the 1970's may have only existed for a "few hours." But, there was months of preparation in 1979 to see it approaching. The first sign will be a doubling of the gold price within 6 months. Not even close to anything like that yet.
I agree. Lots of time to see it coming, and you'll know it when you see it. One of my concerns is just how far the debt can be advanced and just how much derivative overhang can be created without the system blowing up completely. It seems that the more incredulous I become, the more they pile on - long past the point of my own "suspension of disbelief".
If they can manage perception of reality so well, why can't it continue indefinitely? I'm beginning to wonder. The fact that I'm asking such a dumb question leads me to think that it can't go on much longer. Things change just about that time when you think they can always continue the way they always have.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
I agree. Lots of time to see it coming, and you'll know it when you see it. One of my concerns is just how far the debt can be advanced and just how much derivative overhang can be created without the system blowing up completely. It seems that the more incredulous I become, the more they pile on - long past the point of my own "suspension of disbelief".
If they can manage perception of reality so well, why can't it continue indefinitely? I'm beginning to wonder. The fact that I'm asking such a dumb question leads me to think that it can't go on much longer. Things change just about that time when you think they can always continue the way they always have. >>
You can't fool mother nature.
One society after another tries it ands they crumble into dust.
Mother nature doesn't give a damn about beliefs, assumptions, or the output of pencil whippers and axe grinders.
Change or perish.
You got it right. I typed that wrong after stating the opposite just before it. With essentially a zero interest rate environment locked in for another 1-2 yrs, real rates remaining negative
are a good bet. 80% of all otc derivatives are interest rate contracts helping to ensure that rates remain as is. About $250 TRILL of them held by US banks alone.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
I wonder if this was the target all along? Was also surprised to find out that all of the gold floating in the world's oceans only amounts to 15,000 tonnes, or about 10% of known
above ground supplies. While a significant amount, it's only about equal to the amount the central banks have dumped on the market over the past 15 yrs. We're gonna need
asteroid or moon gold to render gold useless.....the ocean is not going to cut it. Fwiw when one factors in the value of water, the final tally is 5X to 6X the $1.2 quad. If one tries to
determine the value of replicating the biosphere, the numbers jump off the chart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>Was just watching the history channel. Found it quite coincidental that the world's mineral/land resources are worth about the same as the notional otc derivatives...approx $1.2 TRILL.
I wonder if this was the target all along? Was also surprised to find out that all of the gold floating in the world's oceans only amounts to 15,000 tonnes, or about 10% of known
above ground supplies. While a significant amount, it's only about equal to the amount the central banks have dumped on the market over the past 15 yrs. We're gonna need
asteroid or moon gold to render gold useless.....the ocean is not going to cut it. Fwiw when one factors in the value of water, the final tally is 5X to 6X the $1.2 quad. If one tries to
determine the value of replicating the biosphere, the numbers jump off the chart. >>
Really? I suppose it depends as to who's song and dance routine you subscribe to.
"Ocean waters do hold gold – NEARLY 20 MILLION TONS of it. However, if you were hoping make your fortune mining the sea, consider this: Gold in the ocean is so dilute that its concentration is on the order of parts per trillion. Each liter of seawater contains, on average, about 13 billionths of a gram of gold."
NOAA Link
The concentration of gold in seawater is about 11 parts per trillion. To get one gram of gold, you'd need to process about 91,000,000 kg (about 89,000 m^3, 35 olympic swimming pools) of water, assuming you could extract 100% of it. 1 gram of gold is worth US$56. The gold is present as ions, you'd need to either precipitate it using some chemical and then filter out the particles or filter the water through some membrane that will bind to gold.
I knew it would happen.
and molecularly woven material. There are gold rich nodules sitting on the ocean floor that
can be harvested but they are at great depth and current materials aren't strong enough to
pull up more than a little at a time.
Can we look forward to years and years of ttt's, saying, "maybe...someday... but today is not that day"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Should I wonder if there is a shortage in the offing as they were glad to see me?
Usually I have to offer them a hanky when I bring my foreign junk in. Not this time.
<< <i>dollar destruction is what will push silver over $100.
Everybody knows who's side who is on, and everybody has an opinion but I'm not really sure that anyone really knows all of the facts.
I love the silver market.
I knew it would happen.
everybody KNOWS....Who's on first.
I knew it would happen.