Where is your next "all in" boarding or jumping off point for Ag?

guitarwes

I'm currently holding and stacking a tiny bit every chance I get. Also trying to cash out of collector coins and pay off some consumer debt in the process to increase disposable funds for more Ag purchases.

Don't really know where the tipping point for me is. Unrealistically, I would back the truck up @$25. Don't think it will get there again though.

Barndog

<< <i>I'm currently holding and stacking a tiny bit every chance I get >>



same here. Got this earlier this week:

derryb

All in, only sell the from stack of raw when I need funds. Just completed a 47K sale of gold collector coins at a nice profit, looking for a good dip to get back in with the funds. May just go ahead and sock it away in ASEs. I hardly ever sell ASEs, they are my long term savings.

Baley

I'll buy more silver below $25, and back up the truck below $18. Start selling above $38, and dump it all at $47

tneig

My true PM holding amounts or changes are not determined by spot, paper price, supply, type, dollar value, Greenspan, Ben, Nat debt, the forum, or SHTF, but rather by how much my wife finds out. Me too in the available income buying phase. I'd buy more heavily at $25. Goes lower, buy more quality stuff. Goes higher sell off less quality stuff.

I'm in heavy for a newbie and I'm staying, until other tangibles or assets resolve to better security.

The price may dip even more heavily and I'd likely stay since I would 'be there' at that moment. If I were more heavily invested, I don't know about my stamina, but the same basics wouldn't have changed. Goes bad, blame nobody. Wife finds out, and it goes south, I'm dead. Goes well, a hero.

jmski52

I keep stacking. Usually nothing big, but steady as she goes....

derryb

tneig, nice avatar, especially for a stacker.

Pokermandude

$27.50 (followed by some upward strength) is my back up the truck price point at the moment. Depending on how fast it moves up, I'd sell a good amount of my stack at $45ish

guitarwes

<< <i>tneig, nice avatar, especially for a stacker. >>



I was looking at that also and was thinking about it. I don't want a nest egg anymore. And egg is fragile and is as fragile as the nest it's in. I want a nesting fortress with something that won't break when dropped.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>I'll buy more silver below $25, and back up the truck below $18. Start selling above $38, and dump it all at $47 >>



Agree, agree, agree, WRONG.

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>tneig, nice avatar, especially for a stacker. >>



I was looking at that also and was thinking about it. I don't want a nest egg anymore. And egg is fragile and is as fragile as the nest it's in. I want a nesting fortress with something that won't break when dropped. >>


Metals are a nice nestegg if in strong, smart hands. I believe tneig, along with most contributors here, has them.

jmski52

Agree, agree, wrong, wrong!

piecesofme

All in, only sell the from stack of raw when I need funds. Just completed a 47K sale of gold collector coins at a nice profit, looking for a good dip to get back in with the funds. May just go ahead and sock it away in ASEs. I hardly ever sell ASEs, they are my long term savings

I never understood the wanting a dip in price if you're already all in approach. If you're all in, seems like all you would want it to do is go up. But that makes too much sense I suppose.
So really, if you're looking for a dip, you are not all in. What you are doing is cost averaging, right?

jmski52

If you are already "all in" and still buying, you truly don't care. You know that you've done everything you could within the limits of your level of understanding and your level of resources.

guitarwes

<< <i>So really, if you're looking for a dip, you are not all in. What you are doing is cost averaging, right? >>



Not really, the way I look at what he's talking about. He's got kind of a precious metals investment/profit taking stack that he's all in to buy and sell with to make money then converts that into his no-sell savings stack (ASEs).

Edited to add: My statement may not make much sense to everyone else but I know what I meant.

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>So really, if you're looking for a dip, you are not all in. What you are doing is cost averaging, right? >>



Not really, the way I look at what he's talking about. He's got kind of a precious metals investment/profit taking stack that he's all in to buy and sell with to make money then converts that into his no-sell savings stack (ASEs).

Edited to add: My statement may not make much sense to everyone else but I know what I meant. >>


correct. sell the collector coins at nice premiums, convert profits to raw physical on the next dip, which is always just around the corner. In the meantime be on the lookout for more collector coins at a bargain (which they usually are on the next dip). but, P-Me is correct - since I just made a sale that will soon go back into physical, I'm technically not all in at the moment. Moments that I am not all in are very short lived, thus my initial reply of "all in." I stand corrected.

Spooly

I stack on pull backs......... I always sell on parabolic moves. Parabolic moves are always followed by a large correction.

piecesofme

correct. sell the collector coins at nice premiums, convert profits to raw physical on the next dip, which is always just around the corner. In the meantime be on the lookout for more collector coins at a bargain (which they usually are on the next dip). but, P-Me is correct - since I just made a sale that will soon go back into physical, I'm technically not all in at the moment. Moments that I am not all in are very short lived, thus my initial reply of "all in." I stand corrected.

That's what I've said I do multiple times here (I buy, to sell, to buy the things I really want) and I've been labeled as someone who thinks silver is not worth investing in. Is that what's called a double standard? I recently showed some nicer premium bars that were purchased with 100% profits from selling other metals that more closely follows Spot, and got ram-rodded and even was called a show-off (not publicly). I thought that's kind of the point of what we're all trying to do here?
Just because I don't pump the possibility of what the metal "could" do if I'm willing to wait a lifetime makes me different?
If it's worth it to anyone, I'd like to hear how what derryb said he is doing is any different than what I am doing.

OperationButter

<< <i>Just because I don't pump the possibility of what the metal "could" do if I'm willing to wait a lifetime makes me different?
If it's worth it to anyone, I'd like to hear how what derryb said he is doing is any different than what I am doing. >>



He has a funny signature. JK.

I dont know the politics of the forum but I do enjoy both of your comments. Hell I enjoy everyone's comments, it allows me to keep up on current issues/trends and has given me tons of knowledge from people that I otherwise would not be exposed to. Everyone I know IRL does NOT give two sh*ts about coins/metals and thinks im a nut and wasting my $.

derryb

<< <i>Just because I don't pump the possibility of what the metal "could" do if I'm willing to wait a lifetime makes me different?
If it's worth it to anyone, I'd like to hear how what derryb said he is doing is any different than what I am doing. >>



My journalism background may have given me an edge on explaining it. What others may have percieved as your moments of uncertainty concerning silver may also be a contributing factor. Just guessing. Nothing wrong with moments of uncertainty, just be prepared for the heat when you share them with stackers.

Wingsrule

OK, since you asked...

Derryb’s long term position is very well known here, and for as long as I can remember, has not changed. His ability to identify potential sleepers is uncanny. He has posted about them here, acted on them, and profited from them. I don’t think that’s any different from what you are doing, it’s just that your time frame is definitely shorter. Akin to someone holding a stock for appreciation as opposed to day-trading.

On the other hand, your position seems to change every few weeks, or whenever a short term rally runs out of steam. It’s not just a mild “I think I’ll hold for awhile because things are changing”, it’s more of an “evacuate the ship we hit an iceberg” reaction.

I could cite multiple specific examples but I don’t think that is necessary.

Wingsrule

And to answer the OP's question, which is what I was going to do before I got to the bottom of this thread...it has not yet been established. Buy signs are still green.

derryb

I hope flippers and stackers are equally welcome. I'm guilty of both.

piecesofme

That's why I respect members of this Forum, whether we agree or not, I get honest feelings and analysis no matter how much it might sting. I expect nothing less and I thank those of you who keep me on the edge of my seat at times. This truly is a great place to learn and discuss as O-Butter mentioned.
And to be honest if every trade or deal I did was always a winner, or if my outlook on what I do was always right, I wouldn't need to be here lol. That's a compliment for those of you who can't see thru sarcasm.

Just one bit of input I would like to add. When someone is wrong or says something that turns out not to be (with the benefit of hindsight), then that person has what they have coming to them...let's hope it's the same when a person is right about something.

I feel there is no right or wrong way going about what we do here. I think and hope we all could agree that ultimately what we are doing is what each of us feel is right with regards to how we're building our little fortunes, we just go about it in a way that works for each of us, or on a level of what is familiar and has worked for us in the past. What I am saying is I think it's just as important to share your failures with others as it is to in what you have had success in. Agreed?

ARCO

If silver goes parabolic again, I would sell at $45.00. If it rises slowly, I would keep holding.

I am waiting for a stock panic (20-30% correction) for a metal sell-off: Silver in the low to mid $20's and gold in the high $1500's. I won't buy silver again unless it gets into the low $20s, I already have enough, and I don't want to be holding it for 30 years like the 1979 buyers have had to do.

Tyler

OnlyGoldIsMoney

OK, so the question was "Where is your next "all in" boarding or jumping off point for Ag?"

I am far from "all in" with precious metals and don't expect to ever be "all in". Four more years of the regime is my signal to continue buying. I am adding silver to the stack whenever cash flow allows - on average thats 100 ounces a month. As far as jumping off, I will sell my SLV ETF when we see $44 again. My physical silver is not for sale until retirement.

VikingDude

<< <i> back up the truck below $18. >>



You're not the only one whose truck would be making that "beep...beep...beep" sound at that price.

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i> back up the truck below $18. >>



You're not the only one whose truck would be making that "beep...beep...beep" sound at that price. >>



I'm not that optimistic about "backing up the truck" at $18. What makes you think if that "nightmare" ever comes true, that silver won't drop to $5?

Baley

My targets are based on an asset allocation model to keep any one asset class from getting (too) out of proportion, and assumes the perfomance of the other classes is flat.

Of course, if everything goes up or down the same amount, no action is necessary to keep them balanced

derryb

<< <i>My targets are based on an asset allocation model to keep any one asset class from getting (too) out of proportion, and assumes the perfomance of the other classes is flat.

Of course, if everything goes up or down the same amount, no action is necessary to keep them balanced >>


I think most of us can agree that is a good model. What we can't all agree on, and we shouldn't, is proportion.

jmski52

I always sell on parabolic moves. Parabolic moves are always followed by a large correction.

Not a bad strategy. Derryb will note that this is one of the reasons to have a paper position. In my case, being almost totally against any paper holdings in this environment, it would be necessary to have a batch of physical ready-to-go so that you could sell it quickly to take advantage of a spike.

It's also an advantage to be psychologically ready to sell when you are preparing for a parabolic move. Not being mentally ready can cost you.

I don't think we're near a spike or a parabolic move yet, but I have no doubt that there will be one.

jmski52

I don't want to be holding it for 30 years like the 1979 buyers have had to do.

Tyler, I seriously doubt that many people held their silver stash for 30 years. I didn't. Realize that when the price dropped from $35 to $10 or so, it was because people were busy getting out of the market. It's a red herring to say that someone held their entire stash for 30 years, regardless of what the world was doing around them.

jmski52

My targets are based on an asset allocation model to keep any one asset class from getting (too) out of proportion, and assumes the perfomance of the other classes is flat.

Of course, if everything goes up or down the same amount, no action is necessary to keep them balanced

I believed all that portfolio diversification and asset allocation crap at one point in my life too. Then I read an article which pointed out that in addition to limiting your loss exposure, a well-diversified portfolio also acts to keep a lid on your gains.

Some of us may be "unbalanced".

My contention is that - if you are confident in the direction, why bother keeping a lid on your gains? Yeah, I might get creamed someday in the market. I hope not.

Thus far, it's been a fine strategy.

derryb

I'm as unbalanced as one can be. . .subject to change at any time.

Baley

My diversified personal model also includes concentrated positions that each have unlimited upside

but I'm not so confident in any of them, nor so pessimistic on the others, that I'd go "all-in" on any of them.

And yes, I took some gold and silver profits in 1979-80, and cut some losses in subsequent years to reallocate that capital, but I still have quite a bit of silver I bought in 1975-1978, and have been holding the bag on ever since, only getting into the black again in recent years.

Been stacking and asset allocating a long time, and have always loved metals

however, the cost of silver production is still under $20/oz, and although I'm not the best chart reader in the world, I see a lot of resistance in the silver chart at $38 and a lot more at $50, and think a lot more supply would become available to the market above $45 than many people think

it's the differences of opinion that make a market, thanks to all for sharing their thoughts