<< <i><< Interesting thought: will "too many" hyper-rarities for sale at once have them competing with one another ? >>
Absolutely definitely the fact that two superb half dimes are in sales within a few weeks of each other will depress the price. As far as the other coins, I doubt it. They will bring prices commensurate to their quality [not necessarily their grade]
Bruce, I have a question here ... if you want to answer. Which price do you think is depressed more ... the first to go or the second?
My mind wants to think the first would suffer more if the coins are of a percieved similar quality. I am not sure they are percieved that way. In this case, the first one sets a mark and creates the buzz, and the second one is the last chance this decade {or more} probably. However, I can see it going the other way too ... a reach for the first in a two-way war, and then one less bidder for the second.
Way out of my league, but curious just the same. >>
As others have commented, I do believe the two sales being timed so close may have some effect on the prices realized. I do find it curious that the Greensboro Collection anouncement flyer released at the ANA in August made no mention of the SP67 half disme, and that its sale was not announced until October, after the Cardinal Collection announcements had started.
Be that as it may, I have seen several instances of multiple examples of rarities trading, and the spill-over effect from one sale to the next. As I see it, it really comes down to how many bidders and underbidders there end up being --
In the Husak sale in February 2008, there was a 1794 "Head of '93" large cent graded MS-63BN. That coin was the finest of that sub-type offered in many years. Vigorous bidding lead to a price realized of $253,000. I was the underbidder, and after the auction asked Heritage to contact the winning bidder and see if they would sell it at a profit, but no deal was made. More time passed, and I was ultimately offered the Garrett MS-64BN finest known specimen (at a much advanced price). Now, move forward to the Dan Holmes sale that took place in September 2009, also featuring a 1794 "Head of '93" large cent graded MS-63BN. The Husak coin buyer and I already had nice examples, and did not bid on the Holmes coin. It realized $155.250. Now, this all transpired over 18 months, with the appearance of the 2nd and 3rd coins not known at the time of the sale of the earlier ones.
The opposite situation occurred with the Naftzger sale of middle date cents, with the sale of the two gem 1823 cents. Both coins appeared in the same sale, as sequential lots, with the MS65BN one lot before the MS66BN. EAC experts felt the two coins were comparable, and expected the prices to be very similar. I was the underbidder on the first coin, and recognized that it was a two-bidder battle with the last six bids on the coin. I figured the coin had reached its value, and that the high bidder (a representative for a motivated Texas family) would not be denied, so I figured I should stop, and just go after the second coin. The first coin hammered at $110K. Minutes later, the second coin was up, and bidding started. The winner of the first coin did not bid on the second coin, and I expected to be successful on the second, with no other indications that anyone else was interested at those price levels. Well...a third bidder came into the picture, and that second coin then became the very last opportunity for either of us to acquire a truly superb 1823 cent. That coin hammered for $260,000!
So, the real question is how many motivated bidders? For the 1794 large cent, there were three bidders for three coins. For the 1823 cents, there were three bidders for two coins.
A good thread! It will be interesting to see how many players will chase these coins and above what levels? In other words, how thick or thin is the market for the ultra rarities above 1 million, 2 million, 5 million.....etc.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
<< <i>I think Col. Jessup is saying, in a very roundabout way, is that he doesn't know what these two coins will sell for >>
MS68 maybe $1mil, SP67 50% more, maybe $2mil. My speculative/theoretical valuations. I have already stated my odds and my betting limit.
Nevertheless, my response to the quote by a very astute Forum member (and evidently a knowledgeable and perspicacious student of human behavior) recognizes this as a guess, nothing like knowledge. I'm certainly no Karnak the Magnificent
IMNSHO
Also, while I have no idea what else is in Greensboro. it sounds like I'm wrong about the current owner being the dealer-collector.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
<< <i>While I agree with everyone that most of these coins are amazing and I'm glad to see they are going to a public auction, does anyone besides myself think that this sale could be a disaster? A coin that has sold for $4M and $7M (months ago), now being offered in a non-major numismatic show auction? I would think that a highlighted sale in Baltimore or Orlando would have brought greater results and attention...and I'm scared to see what the final result on some of these coins will be...
That being said, I hope that they bring record results, it just makes me think twice about the approach on this collection... >>
Just a guess, but maybe it has something to do with them wanting to avoid having to pay a % of the sale for Official Auctioneer Rights on these high value items. That, and like others have posted, not sure it matters much for coins like these.
TDN: <<Amazing how a great provenance like Knoxville gets lost in the shuffle. >>
The Knoxville pedigree does not get lost in my articles. No one has mentioned Knoxville coins more than I have. Unfortunately, many such articles appeared in Numismatic News newspaper and are not currently available.
Roadrunner: <<Probably when Contursi picked it up ... it was probably in the $1-$3 MILL range. Don't believe it has ever had an auction appearance higher than that...>>
This is misleading. It has not been auctioned since May 1991, at which time Jay Parrino was the succesful bidder. Andy Lustig was the consignor.
Roadrunner: <<.. though it did trade hands privately from Contursi to Cardinal for >$8 MILL. >>
The reported sale price, in May 2010, was exactly “$7,850,000.” Who told you that it sold for more than $8 million?
Roadrunner: <<If this is not a no reserve auction the coin could be reserved for a ton....and just not sell.>>
I have heard, from sources that are usually reliable, that there will not be a reserve. I admit that I am not sure about this point.
This is misleading. It has not been auctioned since May 1991, at which time Jay Parrino was the succesful bidder. Andy Lustig was the consignor.
While your statement is essentially true, roadrunner was spot on for his assessment of what the coin sold for privately as part of the Knoxville Collection. I know for a fact it was figured at $2M.
I'm thinking about the few face-to-face conversations I've had with Martin in the last three years. His pleasure at being deeply engaged involved with his ESD set, his pennies, and the occasional crown jewel is obvious. You feel his sense of mission in preserving and protecting a legacy.
I have no idea as to why the Cardinal Foundation chose to sell right now. But I don't think there's a balance sheet involved. Just time to move one. Martin will figure out how to do something satisfying and useful.
There's been an expansion of knowledge for the hobby and, no matter how eleemosynary the intention, there's the personal satisfaction of a job well done, and it doesn't really suck all that much to hang out with some of the seriously all-time coolest stuff. Call it "psychic income".
Maybe he wasn't in it for the money.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
There is absolutely NO doubt that Martin loved that coin. Deeply, seriously and completely. I have never met a collector that feels so much for every example in his collection.
Good to know that Analyst is around to correct my 2% valuation errors. At my age I'm losing about 1% of my long term memory per year. So that 2% is about right.
Comments
<< <i><< Interesting thought: will "too many" hyper-rarities for sale at once have them competing with one another ? >>
Absolutely definitely the fact that two superb half dimes are in sales within a few weeks of each other will depress the price. As far as the other coins, I doubt it. They will bring prices commensurate to their quality [not necessarily their grade]
Bruce, I have a question here ... if you want to answer. Which price do you think is depressed more ... the first to go or the second?
My mind wants to think the first would suffer more if the coins are of a percieved similar quality. I am not sure they are percieved that way. In this case, the first one sets a mark and creates the buzz, and the second one is the last chance this decade {or more} probably. However, I can see it going the other way too ... a reach for the first in a two-way war, and then one less bidder for the second.
Way out of my league, but curious just the same. >>
As others have commented, I do believe the two sales being timed so close may have some effect on the prices realized. I do find it curious that the Greensboro Collection anouncement flyer released at the ANA in August made no mention of the SP67 half disme, and that its sale was not announced until October, after the Cardinal Collection announcements had started.
Be that as it may, I have seen several instances of multiple examples of rarities trading, and the spill-over effect from one sale to the next. As I see it, it really comes down to how many bidders and underbidders there end up being --
In the Husak sale in February 2008, there was a 1794 "Head of '93" large cent graded MS-63BN. That coin was the finest of that sub-type offered in many years. Vigorous bidding lead to a price realized of $253,000. I was the underbidder, and after the auction asked Heritage to contact the winning bidder and see if they would sell it at a profit, but no deal was made. More time passed, and I was ultimately offered the Garrett MS-64BN finest known specimen (at a much advanced price). Now, move forward to the Dan Holmes sale that took place in September 2009, also featuring a 1794 "Head of '93" large cent graded MS-63BN. The Husak coin buyer and I already had nice examples, and did not bid on the Holmes coin. It realized $155.250. Now, this all transpired over 18 months, with the appearance of the 2nd and 3rd coins not known at the time of the sale of the earlier ones.
The opposite situation occurred with the Naftzger sale of middle date cents, with the sale of the two gem 1823 cents. Both coins appeared in the same sale, as sequential lots, with the MS65BN one lot before the MS66BN. EAC experts felt the two coins were comparable, and expected the prices to be very similar. I was the underbidder on the first coin, and recognized that it was a two-bidder battle with the last six bids on the coin. I figured the coin had reached its value, and that the high bidder (a representative for a motivated Texas family) would not be denied, so I figured I should stop, and just go after the second coin. The first coin hammered at $110K. Minutes later, the second coin was up, and bidding started. The winner of the first coin did not bid on the second coin, and I expected to be successful on the second, with no other indications that anyone else was interested at those price levels. Well...a third bidder came into the picture, and that second coin then became the very last opportunity for either of us to acquire a truly superb 1823 cent. That coin hammered for $260,000!
So, the real question is how many motivated bidders? For the 1794 large cent, there were three bidders for three coins. For the 1823 cents, there were three bidders for two coins.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
<< <i>I think Col. Jessup is saying, in a very roundabout way, is that he doesn't know what these two coins will sell for
MS68 maybe $1mil, SP67 50% more, maybe $2mil. My speculative/theoretical valuations. I have already stated my odds and my betting limit.
Nevertheless, my response to the quote by a very astute Forum member (and evidently a knowledgeable and perspicacious student of human behavior) recognizes this as a guess, nothing like knowledge. I'm certainly no Karnak the Magnificent
IMNSHO
Also, while I have no idea what else is in Greensboro. it sounds like I'm wrong about the current owner being the dealer-collector.
<< <i>CJ & Cardinal posts in same thread = worth reading!
Cardinal's are more consistently useful.
<< <i>
<< <i>CJ & Cardinal posts in same thread = worth reading!
Cardinal's are more consistently useful. >>
Ah, but one must factor in the entertainment value...
<< <i>While I agree with everyone that most of these coins are amazing and I'm glad to see they are going to a public auction, does anyone besides myself think that this sale could be a disaster?
A coin that has sold for $4M and $7M (months ago), now being offered in a non-major numismatic show auction? I would think that a highlighted sale in Baltimore or Orlando would have brought greater results and attention...and I'm scared to see what the final result on some of these coins will be...
That being said, I hope that they bring record results, it just makes me think twice about the approach on this collection... >>
Just a guess, but maybe it has something to do with them wanting to avoid having to pay a % of the sale for Official Auctioneer Rights on these high value items. That, and like others have posted, not sure it matters much for coins like these.
Coincidentally, I discuss the meaning and pronunciation of “disme” in my current article. I cite Breen and R. W. Julian in this regard.
First Part of Greensboro Collection Sells in Dallas
TDN: <<Amazing how a great provenance like Knoxville gets lost in the shuffle. >>
The Knoxville pedigree does not get lost in my articles. No one has mentioned Knoxville coins more than I have. Unfortunately, many such articles appeared in Numismatic News newspaper and are not currently available.
Prize Dollars in the Hesselgesser Collection
All-Time Greatest Collection of Barber Half Dollars, Part 1 – 08/03/10
The Most Interesting collection to be auctioned at the 2008 ANA Convention
Roadrunner: <<Probably when Contursi picked it up ... it was probably in the $1-$3 MILL range. Don't believe it has ever had an auction appearance higher
than that...>>
This is misleading. It has not been auctioned since May 1991, at which time Jay Parrino was the succesful bidder. Andy Lustig was the consignor.
Roadrunner: <<.. though it did trade hands privately from Contursi to Cardinal for >$8 MILL. >>
The reported sale price, in May 2010, was exactly “$7,850,000.” Who told you that it sold for more than $8 million?
Roadrunner: <<If this is not a no reserve auction the coin could be reserved for a ton....and just not sell.>>
I have heard, from sources that are usually reliable, that there will not be a reserve. I admit that I am not sure about this point.
In Feb. 2011, I listed all U.S. coins that had sold for more than $2 million -- Click to read
While your statement is essentially true, roadrunner was spot on for his assessment of what the coin sold for privately as part of the Knoxville Collection. I know for a fact it was figured at $2M.
I have no idea as to why the Cardinal Foundation chose to sell right now. But I don't think there's a balance sheet involved. Just time to move one. Martin will figure out how to do something satisfying and useful.
There's been an expansion of knowledge for the hobby and, no matter how eleemosynary the intention, there's the personal satisfaction of a job well done, and it doesn't really suck all that much to hang out with some of the seriously all-time coolest stuff. Call it "psychic income".
Maybe he wasn't in it for the money.