Rosen Numismatic Advisory track record

RYK · October 7, 2012 1:11AM

On an off, I have been a subscriber to the RNA Newsletter, an advice and information periodical geared toward the coin investor. I subscribe primarily for the yearly "Crystal Ball" edition, in which well-known professionals questions and make predictions for the coin market future. I read this primarily for perspective and entertainment.

The interim issues hold little interest for me. For example, earlier this year, Mr. Rosen pounded the table for investing in gem Type 2 trimes. I posted it about it on the forum and thought it was ludicrous at the time...and now, as well. In fact, if there were a way to short the Type 2 trime, I would consider it.

It got me thinking about whether or not anyone here has either acted specifically on Mr. Rosen recommendations or tracked them over the years. I would be interested to know if his recommendations have been worthwhile for the coin investor.

RYK · October 7, 2012 2:39AM

This forum is acting very strange...or my computer is. It indicates that there was a reply from Realone yet there is none.

Justacommeman · October 7, 2012 2:41AM

<< This forum is acting very strange...or my computer is. It indicates that there was a reply from Realone yet there is none. >>

You will probably not like his reply anyways. MJ

Sonorandesertrat · October 7, 2012 2:47AM

I bought a video of his lecture (ANA 2004) and was disappointed---the talk was essentially worthless in my opinion. I am not particularly interested in what pundits like Rosen and Travers have to say about the current coin market. What major dealers (Winter, Sperber, etc.) think is of much greater importance to me. Of course, Rosen's newsletter does include interviews with dealers like these. I do not subscribe anymore because I found little value in what HE had to say.

Furthermore, any collector who intelligently does a reasonable amount of homework can likely come up with 'picks' just as good as people like Rosen and Travers.

Sonorandesertrat · October 7, 2012 2:48AM

There was a reply from Realone---it was up briefly. Weird.

RYK · October 7, 2012 2:49AM

<< 

<< This forum is acting very strange...or my computer is. It indicates that there was a reply from Realone yet there is none. >>

You will probably not like his reply anyways. MJ >>

Probably...

Actually, I had it on my cell phone and was able to copy it and read it, and it was more political than it was germane to my topic--so maybe it was deleted.

Edit: BTW, I completely agreed with the political portion of his post.

You the man, RO!

Justacommeman · October 7, 2012 2:57AM

I do subscribe to the newsletter. More out of curiosity then anything else. MJ

roadrunner · October 7, 2012 3:05AM

I've subscribed to the RNA on and off from the early 1980's to around 2004....maybe about 30-50% of that time period. Yeah, gem type 2 trimes were recommended in
1986-1988 as well. But they did good during that period as did most everything else recommended as gem type was white hot. Maurice's record is probably better than
most but certainly plenty of choices that didn't perform all that well. Logically, buyng at the market bottoms in 1981-1982 and 1993-1997 was the real key. Can't say the RNA
picked any real losers along the way. Overall I felt it was a worthwhile subscription. The annual Crystal Ball surveys seemed quite repetitive during the down years of 1993-2003
as it seemed like it was taking an eternity for the gem type coin market to come back. Same recommendations each year, and very slow to minimal progress.

I also have to give the RNA the award for the best ever call of any numismatic investment newsletter when they recommended gold in August/September 2002. An inverview with Jim Sinclair at that time highlighted the house of cards that was being built with otc derivatives. At that time gold was at $300 and Jim Sinclair was predicting $1200 just based on the banking mess that had been created in just 3 years. Otc derivatives held by JPM at that time were >$30 TRILL. That article was the primary reason I started venturing into $20 Saints and Libs in fall 2002. Despite the dozen experts that contribute to the Crystal Ball Surveys each year, it was Sinclair's 2002 summer interview that trumped them all. While the RNA is not for everyone, it offered up ideas and advice that will help keep both newbs and seasoned vets out of hot water. At <$49/yr when I last subscribed, it was decent value imo. It was the only newsletter I routinely subscribed to over that 20 yr period and I sampled most of them. When the market was in a full-go state from 1983-1990 and ok from 1999-2004 the RNA was fairly helpful to me. But as already stated a sharp collector with skills who does a little research can come up with good choices too. The RNA seems keyed more towards investors and seasoned collectors who don't mind speculating a bit. I'm sure the RNA was puzzled by the 22 yr downtrend in precious metals following the 1980 peak. That weighed heavily on a lot of the market. There were some "great" recommendations to buy dated BU bags of 90% silver coins to cash in the everage when they took off again. But who knew in the mid-1980's that we still had 15 yrs or more to wait? I still have all my old RNA's and do flip through some from time to time. But I don't have the energy to go back and see how the recommendations all turned out. Personally, I can't think of any recommendations I followed along the way where I lost money on them. I had a fairly good idea of what I wanted to buy and the RNA was more of a 2nd check on that. Before PCGS and NGC this was even more important. I just re-read the fall 1996 interview with Jay Parrino, very interesting. Also have to wonder if any of the newsletter guys said to get out of the market during the peak in 1989 or early 1990? I don't recall much of anything on that subject. The RNA was recommending common date MS65 Morgans from 2000-2001 when they were $65-$75. That didn't turn out too bad 3-5 years later.

streeter · October 7, 2012 3:08AM

RYK,
I used to subscribe and once in a while I read a month old edition but I don't buy coins to invest in so it holds little interest for me.

I just always bought what I liked and if they go up, great. If they don't, that's fine too. I bought the coins or bullion for a reason and the reason doesn't go away.

Unknown · October 7, 2012 3:15AM

This content has been removed.

roadrunner · October 7, 2012 4:32AM

I found the annual Crystal Ball surveys to be quite interesting and informative but also not very useful from an investment performance standpoint. Experts talking
about their favorite areas doesn't necessarily add up to a good performer.