<< <i>Guess there's no chance it's due to simple supply and demand?
That is why I suggested two possibilities. If you find out which one is operative, please let me know. I will do the same. >>
Venezuela is accusing OPEC of currently pumping more than agreed to limits. Price after the election will tell us.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Traded NUGT for 3% this morn. Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks.
HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
The problem is, I don't think you'll ever see it coming. Be careful out there, my friend.
Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I agree.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Traded NUGT for 3% this morn. Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait. I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets. Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks. >>
I missed the Nugt reversal after paying too much attention to existing Dust. The reversal was swift. It's looking like today was the low for miners and gold/silver, possibly oil too. 4 hr gold macd dropped to around 26 which was only exceeded by the mid-June low. GDXJ retested the 1 year downtrend line breakout today. I decided to fill my heating oil tank today. Don't think we're going to see much lower than $89/barrel WTIC. Crude basically pulled back to the 50% point after rallying from $77 to $100. Positive divergences showing up on the 4 hr and 8 hr oil charts. The administration is pulling the levers to to improve the re-election bid (cheaper oil and commods, higher stock market, dollar moderated in the 80 range, and gold/silver under $1800/$35). Thing is, can they keep this up for another 7 weeks?
<< <i>Traded NUGT for 3% this morn. Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait. I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets. Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks. >>
I missed the Nugt reversal after paying too much attention to existing Dust. The reversal was swift. It's looking like today was the low for miners and gold/silver, possibly oil too. 4 hr gold macd dropped to around 26 which was only exceeded by the mid-June low. GDXJ retested the 1 year downtrend line breakout today. I decided to fill my heating oil tank today. Don't think we're going to see much lower than $89/barrel WTIC. Crude basically pulled back to the 50% point after rallying from $77 to $100. The administration is pulling the levers to to improve the reelection bid (cheaper oil and commods, higher stock market, dollar moderated in the 80 range, and gold/silver under $1800/$35). Thing is, can they keep this up for another 7 weeks? >>
Benny may feel he hasn't done quite enough to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in the Whitehouse. When he feels it strong enough he will make an announcement to push the markets in his messiahs direction.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
PMs, religion and politics in only two sentences - good job.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Volume has been steadily declining on this bounce from $1736 to $1752. Now right back up to the bottom of the previous support area of the past 6 days. Does gold turn back now or get some additional oomph tommorow or Friday? But, gold has completed a perfect 4 pt parallel channel since the $1787 high.
<< <i>HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
The problem is, I don't think you'll ever see it coming. Be careful out there, my friend.
<< <i>Looks like the consolidation is over. On to $1800+! >>
From an OE week timing aspect I would agree. 3 TNote auctions totaling $99 BILL now complete with typical bid to cover ratios. Gold moved up to the top of the 2 week trading range ($1777-$1780) and briefly tagged $1780 for a minute. Looks to be consolidating here for the next move. The pattern over the last 8 days has been a 24-26 hour bounce followed by a pullback. The move to $1780 came just at the 26 hr point. The only thing lacking on this move was the volume. At least in the case of miners, GLD, SLV, and SPY, the volume wasn't all that impressive. Apparently, some skittishness still remaining from the hits of the past couple days. The dollar dipped to 79.49 to nearly fill the gap (79.48) from the open 2 days ago. Will probably come back for that. It bounced at the 2 day downtrend line as well as 2 week uptrend line. The 2/4/8 hr charts all look like it's going to roll over again. Gold has to break free of $1780 to start the next move. On the 22nd it spent 75 minutes above $1780 on that B wave bounce. Today only 1 minute. But it does look to be coiling right here. Dust got sent for a loop (snake!). Next target might be that gap down around 22.7. There's still the potential that today's gold bounce was just another larger B wave bounce before a larger order C wave. A move above $1780 would negate that potential. From the weekly events view, yesterday morning was the time to get long again. Heating oil tank now filled. Should get me through Feb.
Gold is ready for the next move and will be by FRiday morning although it might wait until Monday. Chicago PMI numbers maybe on Friday? Stocks (SP500) also in great shape to go higher.
An indecisive day for miners. The $1773/$34.50 levels acted like a battleground today. Could still be another move down closer to the bottom of the 2 week trading range of $1755-$1762. COT showed commercials adding another net 13K in gold shorts to bring the short to long ratio to 2.82, only the 2nd time that high this year. But last time up there price went higher for a couple of weeks as the ratio came off. That's a net change of +119,000 shorts in less than 2 months. A short to long shift occurred in the dollar where the commercials are now net long with a 1.45 long to short ratio. Recall that last week they unloaded >80% of their entire short portfolio to bring the short ratio from 3-1 to 1.75-1. That's a long ways from the 13-1 ratio high of 2012. These short to long or long to short shifts only occur once or twice per year. Seems the commercials are figuring on the dollar heading higher than 80.0, a level which it tagged for the 2nd time today. That annoying gap at 79.48 was filled early this morning. Event-wise, gold should rally further into October before undergoing a more significant correction. No reason though why we couldn't get the 2nd half of that correction now, even if it's just more time being eaten up. Today's movements in the miners, GLD, and SLV didn't feel like a coil getting ready to spring upwards.
dollar showed strength after 6 a.m. and metals held fairly firm. This could be a significant development.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>dollar showed strength after 6 a.m. and metals held fairly firm. This could be a significant development.
>>
Hard to get a read on that as the Euro cratered this morning on some short-term, negative Euro news. It was pretty obvious that gold is still capped at $1780 in NY trading. And as Comex was closing they tried to nail it hard but only succeeded with $1767. That did show some strength. But the futures ended under $1773/$34.50 so I think the bears still have the edge right now. October 1st brings fresh air back into the game. Could shift on a dime. The general zig-zagging of the past 2 weeks continued yet again. Basically, 24-26 hours up and then a similar time period down. Today we hit the downspike in mid-day. So, I'd expect the reversing up-spike mid-day Monday. Monday's action could move back into the $1760's only to follow with a spike to $1780 by afternoon. In checking the last 10 yrs of October miner action (via USERX gold fund), it's about an even split between up-down-flat. Of the years from 2006-2011 miners have moved up 5 of 6 times into mid-October (ie OX). 2 of those times they continued up all month, 2 ended up net down for the month, and 2 even. October has tended to be a split month with 2 of the trading weeks up and 2 of them down. Nothing is stopping the dollar and gold from moving up together for a short period either.
Gold didn't do much Friday because it was just finishing consolidating the last move on the daily timeframe. Gold will be ready to go again Monday morning. Gold accomplished its objective of scaring the bulls the last week or so.
I'm not as convinced as I was that gold is ready to rocket much beyond $1800 in the near term as I once was as there are some indications that gold is overbought. But I am still optimistic and playing the bullish scenario cautiously. I would have more expected this stall at the $1800 level rather than the $1780 level, so how gold handles the $1800 level will be a big indiator for me.
<< <i>Gold didn't do much Friday because it was just finishing consolidating the last move on the daily timeframe. Gold will be ready to go again Monday morning. Gold accomplished its objective of scaring the bulls the last week or so.
I'm not as convinced as I was that gold is ready to rocket much beyond $1800 in the near term as I once was as there are some indications that gold is overbought. But I am still optimistic and playing the bullish scenario cautiously. I would have more expected this stall at the $1800 level rather than the $1780 level, so how gold handles the $1800 level will be a big indiator for me. >>
I focus primarily on silver in regards to pm's and I'm inclined to agree with your assesment. The Silver Daily is pausing to slighly negative, the weekly is also showing some rollover indications, but both of these actions may only be forcasting a normal correction. The pm's have been in a corrective- consolidation phase for a week or so now but it is not clear if it has played out or we should expect a slightly deeper correction as well as time expenditure.
The one continued very bright spot is that the Silver monthly is still pegging assuredly up! Indicating that any further correction should be bought if you have'nt already bought at the 33.91 area. Its possible that we cood see the 32.50 area if this correction continues, but again it would be another buy based upon the monthly at this time.
The dollar is completely inverse, the daily and the weekly are positive and turning positive but the Monthly is clearly pegging down. Indication that this current 79.83 area should be sold and if this up move for the dollar continues we could see 81.25 again. That also would be a screaming sell based on the current Monthly dollar DXY chart.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
don't fight the FED. While VXX is an excellent play when the markets crash don't expect them to crash until the FED loses or abandons its ability to prop them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
That is why I suggested two possibilities. If you find out which one is operative, please let me know. I will do the same.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Guess there's no chance it's due to simple supply and demand?
That is why I suggested two possibilities. If you find out which one is operative, please let me know. I will do the same.
Venezuela is accusing OPEC of currently pumping more than agreed to limits. Price after the election will tell us.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The problem is, I don't think you'll ever see it coming. Be careful out there, my friend.
Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I agree.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Traded NUGT for 3% this morn. Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks. >>
I missed the Nugt reversal after paying too much attention to existing Dust. The reversal was swift. It's looking like today was the low for miners and gold/silver, possibly oil too.
4 hr gold macd dropped to around 26 which was only exceeded by the mid-June low. GDXJ retested the 1 year downtrend line breakout today. I decided to fill my heating oil tank
today. Don't think we're going to see much lower than $89/barrel WTIC. Crude basically pulled back to the 50% point after rallying from $77 to $100. Positive divergences showing up
on the 4 hr and 8 hr oil charts. The administration is pulling the levers to to improve the re-election bid (cheaper oil and commods, higher stock market, dollar moderated in the 80 range,
and gold/silver under $1800/$35). Thing is, can they keep this up for another 7 weeks?
<< <i>
<< <i>Traded NUGT for 3% this morn. Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I HATE HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
Lots of material names have come very hard in last 2 weeks. >>
I missed the Nugt reversal after paying too much attention to existing Dust. The reversal was swift. It's looking like today was the low for miners and gold/silver, possibly oil too.
4 hr gold macd dropped to around 26 which was only exceeded by the mid-June low. GDXJ retested the 1 year downtrend line breakout today. I decided to fill my heating oil tank
today. Don't think we're going to see much lower than $89/barrel WTIC. Crude basically pulled back to the 50% point after rallying from $77 to $100. The administration is pulling
the levers to to improve the reelection bid (cheaper oil and commods, higher stock market, dollar moderated in the 80 range, and gold/silver under $1800/$35). Thing is, can they
keep this up for another 7 weeks? >>
Benny may feel he hasn't done quite enough to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in the Whitehouse. When he feels it strong enough he will make an announcement to push the markets in his messiahs direction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Does gold turn back now or get some additional oomph tommorow or Friday? But, gold has completed a perfect 4 pt parallel channel since the $1787 high.
<< <i>PMs, religion and politics in only two sentences - good job. >>
I literally LOL'd in my office.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>HFT. Computers gonna create an awesome opportunity sometime, but I dont want to get in the way. An opportunity that will affect ALL actively traded assets.
The problem is, I don't think you'll ever see it coming. Be careful out there, my friend.
Looking to go long oil, but gonna wait.
I agree. >>
Am I a big believer in liquidity?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>PMs, religion and politics in only two sentences - good job. >>
I'm glad you appreciated the more direct and all inclusive approach. It was specifically tailored to meet your personal request.
<< <i>Looks like the consolidation is over. On to $1800+! >>
From an OE week timing aspect I would agree. 3 TNote auctions totaling $99 BILL now complete with typical bid to cover ratios.
Gold moved up to the top of the 2 week trading range ($1777-$1780) and briefly tagged $1780 for a minute. Looks to be consolidating here for the next move.
The pattern over the last 8 days has been a 24-26 hour bounce followed by a pullback. The move to $1780 came just at the 26 hr point. The only thing lacking on
this move was the volume. At least in the case of miners, GLD, SLV, and SPY, the volume wasn't all that impressive. Apparently, some skittishness still remaining from
the hits of the past couple days. The dollar dipped to 79.49 to nearly fill the gap (79.48) from the open 2 days ago. Will probably come back for that. It bounced at the 2 day
downtrend line as well as 2 week uptrend line. The 2/4/8 hr charts all look like it's going to roll over again. Gold has to break free of $1780 to start the next move. On the
22nd it spent 75 minutes above $1780 on that B wave bounce. Today only 1 minute. But it does look to be coiling right here. Dust got sent for a loop (snake!). Next target
might be that gap down around 22.7. There's still the potential that today's gold bounce was just another larger B wave bounce before a larger order C wave. A move above
$1780 would negate that potential. From the weekly events view, yesterday morning was the time to get long again. Heating oil tank now filled. Should get me through Feb.
of $1755-$1762. COT showed commercials adding another net 13K in gold shorts to bring the short to long ratio to 2.82, only the 2nd time that high this year. But last time up
there price went higher for a couple of weeks as the ratio came off. That's a net change of +119,000 shorts in less than 2 months. A short to long shift occurred in the dollar where
the commercials are now net long with a 1.45 long to short ratio. Recall that last week they unloaded >80% of their entire short portfolio to bring the short ratio from 3-1 to 1.75-1.
That's a long ways from the 13-1 ratio high of 2012. These short to long or long to short shifts only occur once or twice per year. Seems the commercials are figuring on the dollar
heading higher than 80.0, a level which it tagged for the 2nd time today. That annoying gap at 79.48 was filled early this morning. Event-wise, gold should rally further into October
before undergoing a more significant correction. No reason though why we couldn't get the 2nd half of that correction now, even if it's just more time being eaten up. Today's
movements in the miners, GLD, and SLV didn't feel like a coil getting ready to spring upwards.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>dollar showed strength after 6 a.m. and metals held fairly firm. This could be a significant development.
Hard to get a read on that as the Euro cratered this morning on some short-term, negative Euro news. It was pretty obvious that gold is still capped at
$1780 in NY trading. And as Comex was closing they tried to nail it hard but only succeeded with $1767. That did show some strength. But the futures
ended under $1773/$34.50 so I think the bears still have the edge right now. October 1st brings fresh air back into the game. Could shift on a dime.
The general zig-zagging of the past 2 weeks continued yet again. Basically, 24-26 hours up and then a similar time period down. Today we hit the downspike
in mid-day. So, I'd expect the reversing up-spike mid-day Monday. Monday's action could move back into the $1760's only to follow with a spike to $1780 by
afternoon. In checking the last 10 yrs of October miner action (via USERX gold fund), it's about an even split between up-down-flat. Of the years from 2006-2011
miners have moved up 5 of 6 times into mid-October (ie OX). 2 of those times they continued up all month, 2 ended up net down for the month, and 2 even. October
has tended to be a split month with 2 of the trading weeks up and 2 of them down. Nothing is stopping the dollar and gold from moving up together for a short period either.
I'm not as convinced as I was that gold is ready to rocket much beyond $1800 in the near term as I once was as there are some indications that gold is overbought. But I am still optimistic and playing the bullish scenario cautiously. I would have more expected this stall at the $1800 level rather than the $1780 level, so how gold handles the $1800 level will be a big indiator for me.
<< <i>Gold didn't do much Friday because it was just finishing consolidating the last move on the daily timeframe. Gold will be ready to go again Monday morning. Gold accomplished its objective of scaring the bulls the last week or so.
I'm not as convinced as I was that gold is ready to rocket much beyond $1800 in the near term as I once was as there are some indications that gold is overbought. But I am still optimistic and playing the bullish scenario cautiously. I would have more expected this stall at the $1800 level rather than the $1780 level, so how gold handles the $1800 level will be a big indiator for me. >>
I focus primarily on silver in regards to pm's and I'm inclined to agree with your assesment. The Silver Daily is pausing to slighly negative, the weekly is also showing some rollover indications, but both of these actions may only be forcasting a normal correction. The pm's have been in a corrective- consolidation phase for a week or so now but it is not clear if it has played out or we should expect a slightly deeper correction as well as time expenditure.
The one continued very bright spot is that the Silver monthly is still pegging assuredly up! Indicating that any further correction should be bought if you have'nt already bought at the 33.91 area. Its possible that we cood see the 32.50 area if this correction continues, but again it would be another buy based upon the monthly at this time.
The dollar is completely inverse, the daily and the weekly are positive and turning positive but the Monthly is clearly pegging down. Indication that this current 79.83 area should be sold and if this up move for the dollar continues we could see 81.25 again. That also would be a screaming sell based on the current Monthly dollar DXY chart.
<< <i>VXX @$9 near the Friday close... >>
don't fight the FED. While VXX is an excellent play when the markets crash don't expect them to crash until the FED loses or abandons its ability to prop them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262).
Hey Cohodk,
You sure picked that top. It did retest it, but your top call held, and is now over 30 points to the good.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262).
Hey Cohodk,
You sure picked that top. It did retest it, but your top call held, and is now over 30 points to the good. >>
Thanks. $30 more to go.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear