<< <i>"How could these people possibly be expected/required to have access to a computer and/or a bank account to get their benefits and make common transactions?"
We give them one. We will give them a computer with an ISP, just like we give them a "free" phone with air time. It's easy, we get an internet tax just like the Universal Service Charge on your phone bill but it might be called a Universal ISP charge...just a few buks for you next new Internet Access Charge that is automatically deducted from your Internet Service Account. No problem... >>
Then let's give out ID's so everyone can show them before they vote... Just sayin...
<< <i>I bought DUST at end of day for a quickie trade. >>
A tough thing to own. I picked up some 2 days ago figuring on no QE announcement. Set a tight sell stop today and saw it execute at 12:30-12:31. My mistake was not immediately buying into NUGT as soon as the first 5 seconds of the CNBC announcement came over the air. Could have bought it on the first pull back to $1735 as well. Didn't think that one through too well. Now have to wait until the next pull back between the 18th-26th as we get back to back OE weeks for gold stocks/gold. That will be a convenient spot to stop the train by $1800 and correct off some of the +$275 gain. If this is a new paradigm then miners won't get manhandled. But odds strongly favor it. I'll be dusting off the DUST early next week. Euro ran into the 1.300 line. Dollar is down at the bottom of the 16 month trend channel. It it busts through there, all heck will break loose. I think it's gone far enough ready. GDX could run to 58 by Monday/Tuesday before meeting stout resistance again. Last week it broke above the 2 yr downtrend line. GSR touched key support at the 50 line today. It's next big gap lower is at 45-46. But it has left a number of gaps in its recent wake all the way up to 57.
All those 3-4 yr cup w/handle formations in the grains that were "laughable" only 3-9 months ago are now basically complete (ie corn). Wonder were they go to from here?
<< <i>As for qualifying for credit cards, in California, many benefits are distributed via debit card. The state issues the cards out and the credits. Many with the state issued card don't have a bank account, or another credit card. >>
Aside from gov. handout debit cards, to conduct any financial transactions in a cashless economy, bank accounts will be required to process all other receipts and payments. Might even see a First National Bank for the Homeless and Transient. The unfortunate veteran on the corner with the cardboard sign will need to be able to process electronic donations. >>
>>
That would be something to see. A homeless vet witha Square card reads and an iPhone!!!
<< <i>The dark side of all electronic money has been outlined in dystopian fiction over and over. A totalitarian state tracks all money, and requires imbedded chips for anyone to conduct business or hold a job. All travel, all activities are tracked and monitored. Any person on the enemies of state list gets their chip deactivated, or is told that their chip needs repair. In the novel 1984, repair means torture and brainwashing, for those that don't love Big Brother.
For those that think it is all that far off, really tough economic times (eg: mass starvation) almost always means radical social changes. There are already proposals to track every motor vehicle 24/7 so as to tax mileage instead of gasoline consumption. The U.S. government recently made a list of cell phones that no longer work, on the premise that these are stolen phones. In other countries, public cameras are on every street corner in the major cities. In the U.S. it has been reported that people that visit certain websites will have their computer activity and smart phone activity constantly monitored, within hours of that person visiting certain websites.
I see it as a near certainty that will be totalitarian abuse of power with all electronic money. Privacy will be a thing of the past, and impossible to get back. For the ruling class, control or the illusion of control will be greater than ever. Just hope that you or your friends or relatives don't end up on the enemies list and have their chip called in for repair, or if they upset Big Brother enough, the chip gets turned off and that person can no longer buy or sell, or hold a job. If there is an open revolt, it might be worse than that. >>
Have plenty of protection, I gotta get another identity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I bought DUST at end of day for a quickie trade. >>
Just a suggestion, and you and others may already do it: Always check the Weekly and Monthly before trading the daily. >>
The daily whipsaws around the weekly and monthly trends. While the longer term trend is important, esp. to longer term holders, I pay more attention to gaps, planned trading/economic events, and counter reactions to massive daily moves. That said, I thought the odds were decent that miners would jump up again today as more people piled in. That sent DUST spiraling down again. This morning may have been a more optimum time to buy it as it sets a new all time daily RSI low (Nugt rsi at 81). Miner OE week influences usually start to influence around Mon-Tuesday. If they stay flat today and first part of Monday, a 2-3 day DUST trade could work out ok. If gold moves down with miners mid-next week it will be an even better trade as the week after next is end of month gold OE week/TNote auctions. A good 2-3 day trade could extend into 4-6 days. But another blockbuster news event next week could erase any negativity from OE. The gap down at the open today gives the potential for DUST to fall into the 21's. That potential will probably be there through Monday unless things reverse sooner.
Dollar ran down to its last gap level of 78.6. Daily RSI of 19 is much lower than the 22 seen back in May 2011 when it reached 73. Neg divergence? But at 19 the RSI is massively oversold. Still, momentum on the weekly and monthly charts is still pointing sharply down. A conundrum. It's not going to zero.
QE3 was apparently not even close to fully priced into the market. It would seem that 14,000 Dow may be the target near the all time "unadjusted for inflation/deflation" high.
Daddy says the monthly and the weekly are still pegging up, just a cautionary note (re:the bookstore) News was probably already discounted, and in this case it may be "buy the news" since the rumor was a given.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
So silver and platinum are the real stars of the past 4 weeks, but my focus is on gold for trading. The last time QE was announced I believe gold took off for several strong weeks. This pattern here looks STRONG. McLellan's not expecting any kind of a top until Sept 24, and correctly called the low on the 7th. Today took us to the bottom of the channel formation on my chart. I don't think an unreasonable near term goal is the middle trendline that I have, which would take us to the mid $1900's. The timing on the near term move will probably take us to the election, at which point there will probably be a pretty good retracement before another move into June next year. This is eerily like other years where gold started falling apart in November/December after a huge move and recovered in Jan.
ProofCollection in July trading thread July 27: It's too early to be 100% sure but with the solid weekly close this looks like it is THE BREAKOUT most of us have been waiting for. I'm glad I climbed onto this move at that point, my account has tripled so far and this is just the beginning.
The move is looking great. Gold did a nice 38.2% retracement of the last move up and is now ready for the next move which should take us up to $1800 over the next few days. A move to just under $1790 is realistic by the end of Wednesday.
Also a nice move by silver poking its head above $35 briefly.
<< <i>The move is looking great. Gold did a nice 38.2% retracement of the last move up and is now ready for the next move which should take us up to $1800 over the next few days. A move to just under $1790 is realistic by the end of Wednesday. Also a nice move by silver poking its head above $35 briefly. >>
I don't expect gold to peak per the McC Oscillator on the 24th as that's too close to gold's OE day on the 25th. Makes more sense for me if it peaks towards end of this week or Monday. Today's bounce in gold to $1773 and silver to $35+ seemed to be corrective B wave bounces imo. Which means a C leg down deeper for this correction is still out there. I know that makes sense for miners whose options expire Friday. They are already past the usual time (ie Tuesday) when they begin to take hits. The last 3 corrective legs all lasted several days longer than this one has currently put in. I was figuring the correction would last into Wed/Thursday. But gold's quite drop to $1752 this week could have been enough. Still, it's odd that the miners have not corrected more. They almost never stay flat during an OE week. If gold should rise to $1780-$1800 it will take miners with them, regardless of OE. Should miners skip their "normal" 2-5 day OE hit it will be the first time I can recall it happening in a year or more. Should they continue to stay flat or rise somewhat, they then have to get through gold's OE week and a set of TBond auctions as well. Next week is also end of month, end of quarter squaring. Have to think fund managers will want to be booking profits to tidy up their books.
<< <i>Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262). >>
Looks like the book store is jammed into a 1 yr contracting wedge. Breakout time, or breakdown?
Riding the dusty trail with you. >>
Im afraid Roadrunner that my thought of miners outperforming metals is being realized--just 6 months later than I thought. If there is a real breakdown in Treasuries, that money will go to equities and PMs. The ultimate play would be to get the best of both worlds, ie.-buy the miners.
Watching the close today for a possible chance to double-up and try to salvage a bad trade. RSI on XAU is the highest its been in a decade. Clearly overbought, but that strength must be respected. Pullbacks may be only brief and shallow.
A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. If and when the the curtain is opened to expose the Wizard, TBT and VXX will skyrocket go to the moon.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. >>
And risky assets including PMs less attractive, as carrying costs increase exponentially. >>
Wouldn't a breakdown in T's further expose the weakness of the dollar and the economic policy behind it? I would think this would make hard assets more attractive.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>So silver and platinum are the real stars of the past 4 weeks, but my focus is on gold for trading. The last time QE was announced I believe gold took off for several strong weeks. This pattern here looks STRONG. McLellan's not expecting any kind of a top until Sept 24, and correctly called the low on the 7th. Today took us to the bottom of the channel formation on my chart. I don't think an unreasonable near term goal is the middle trendline that I have, which would take us to the mid $1900's. The timing on the near term move will probably take us to the election, at which point there will probably be a pretty good retracement before another move into June next year. This is eerily like other years where gold started falling apart in November/December after a huge move and recovered in Jan.
ProofCollection in July trading thread July 27: It's too early to be 100% sure but with the solid weekly close this looks like it is THE BREAKOUT most of us have been waiting for. I'm glad I climbed onto this move at that point, my account has tripled so far and this is just the beginning. >>
PC, each time gold has broken one of those uptrend lines it has failed to get back above it. Why do you think this time is different?
<< <i>A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. >>
And risky assets including PMs less attractive, as carrying costs increase exponentially. >>
Wouldn't a breakdown in T's further expose the weakness of the dollar and the economic policy behind it? I would think this would make hard assets more attractive. >>
It is my contention that asset prices are being fueled by cheap money. As that money gets more expensive the return on investment declines thus making highly leveraged based assets, like PMs, less a "sure thing". This doesnt mean the bull market for PMs will end, but would render them more risky.
<< <i>I'm afraid Roadrunner that my thought of miners outperforming metals is being realized--just 6 months later than I thought. If there is a real breakdown in Treasuries, that money will go to equities and PMs. The ultimate play would be to get the best of both worlds, ie.-buy the miners.
Watching the close today for a possible chance to double-up and try to salvage a bad trade. RSI on XAU is the highest its been in a decade. Clearly overbought, but that strength must be respected. Pullbacks may be only brief and shallow. >>
Got off the dusty trail this morning as this week's typical OE hit was not happening. It will probably happen during gold's OE, possibly as soon as Friday and nlt Tuesday. Gold has to get on the stick to make that last move to $1800. By Friday I think end of month OE effects will take hold. In that environment best I can see gold doing is staying even through next Wed/Thursday. That's also an end of quarter OE as well as a bond auction week. The short to long commercial gold futures ratio is up to 2.65 with comms adding around +95K net short contracts over the past 5 weeks. Like clockwork they have added 10K to 30K net shorts each and every week. I just can't see them not taking advantage of next week's set up. GLD and SLV options expire on Friday. That could get the ball rolling. Gold has to get out of this $1765-$1775 range to make things happen. The 8 hr macd diff is now negative. Macd and Rsi have broken below the 6 week uptrend line on that dip into the $1750's. The bounce to $1778 retested that breakdown. Right now it looks like the die is cast to initiate a correction. With oil getting hit hard and commods in general (GSG down), it's hard to fathom how gold, silver, and miners are still hanging up there. The large drop in oil price has apparently been bullish for the miners. Though in the past I've rarely seen that work in just 1-2 days. But their mining expenses do drop considerably on cheaper energy, supplies, and commodities.
USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners.
"Clearly it is a waste of time reading financial statements. These statements are now irrelevant."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It is my contention that asset prices are being fueled by cheap money. As that money gets more expensive the return on investment declines thus making highly leveraged based assets, like PMs, less a "sure thing". This doesnt mean the bull market for PMs will end, but would render them more risky. >>
I agree with your assessment, but can't think of a scenario, other than inflation or a change in the FEDs direction, where the funny money would get more expensive. FED has promised ZIRP and open ended new money. Short of their reversing their "policy" and short of inflation what other causes would make money more expensive?
Additionally, In the current economic environment that has brought us the inside job on the dollar, inflation might even become a catalyst for the PM fire.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well, we have to be afraid of what we dont know--thats your unknown scenerio. We dont know what we dont know.
We need to start praying for inflation. $10s of Trillions spent globally over the last 4 years and still no inflation here or in Europe. Or if you contend we have inflation, did we get our money's worth?
<< <i>Well, we have to be afraid of what we dont know--thats your unknown scenerio. We dont know what we dont know.
We need to start praying for inflation. $10s of Trillions spent globally over the last 4 years and still no inflation here or in Europe. Or if you contend we have inflation, did we get our money's worth? >>
By definition we have inflation - the money supply has been increased. Haven't got our money's worth because the money is not getting to "us." ECRI (which is a much better predictor of recessions than the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER) believes that the US re-entered a recession in June. ISM (a measure of manufacturing in the US) shows Prices Paid is up to 54, up from a reading of just 39 in July. I'd say stagflation is taking root.
Subsequent price inflation is select (food primarily) but will be greatly ramped up once the FED realizes they are going to have to force the new money onto Main Street to actually stimulate employment. As we know most of it is going into FED reserve deposits and into equity and commodity speculation. How they force it to trickle down and how they control the flow will be interesting. QE Extreme Unlimited may just have that objective. It's obvious the FED fears deflation more than it does inflation - let's hope they can keep their eyes on the inflation ball when they do open the Main St. spigot.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners. >>
I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74. >>
I would agree. But probably not before the dollar finds it way back to 80-82 first. Got 79.77 today.
The COT commercials made a monstrous dump of their dollar future shorts last 2 weeks. They unloaded 75% of their total short contracts and 86% of their net short position, an incredible one week shift. The short to long ratio dropped from 3.6 to 1.76 to 1. Recall that they pushed this short to long ratio up to the 10-14 range in the early part of this year. Basically, they are almost back to even. They made some money on the drop of the past few weeks. They even dumped a large portion of their longs. So for now they're basically out of the dollar. Last week commercials had 62K total contracts and this week <20K. It would appear they are looking for more certain money elsewhere now. If the dollar index had a date with 74 any time in the next several weeks (or months?) the commercials would have stayed loaded.
<< <i>USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners. >>
I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74. >>
What the FED wants the FED gets - more competitive exports with a lower dollar index.. Don't fight the FED. Unfortunately other countries want the same thing - look for a race to the bottom.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It's now been 7 days of consolidation and it appears we're nearing the end. This could resolve either way, with a retracement as low as just over $1700, or on to the $1800's... My money is on the $1800's with the onset of QEinf, but you never know. The weekly chart could use a red candle as it's been a while, but another green candle or two wouldn't set any records.
Gold has sort of lingered for 7 days rather than really consolidating. That $1787 shooting star peak still looks like the B wave bounce to me. Today's $1775 peak was on weakish volume and could be setting up for the C leg completion. A parallel channel formed between the recent $1787 and $1775 highs projects down to $1730 later this week. OE week still has more to go as well as 2 more TNote auctions. Gold's (and miner's) strength allowed them to fend off the OE's for several extra days. But it looks like they've been worn down with both gold and silver now showing daily macd crosses for the first time since the rally began 6 weeks ago. Best the metals can probably do is to hang tough right here ($1755/$33.50) for the next couple of days. Dollar did a quick dip this morning to 79.35 to fill the remainder of Sunday night's opening gap. Commercials have added on +106,000 net short Comex gold contracts over the past 6 weeks. If they are going to get a return on those, this end of quarter week sets up the best. Back on the dusty trail as of this morning following the price gap down.
Gold's 200 week moving average is at $1327. I didn't even come close to hitting the 200 wk ma during the October 2008 bottom. Don't really see the 200 week ma as something to be reached again until the gold bull market is history. That's anywhere from 1-5 yrs away as I see it. But the 20 and 50 week moving averages are a different story.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gold has sort of lingered for 7 days rather than really consolidating. >>
That's what a consolidation can look like. We've had a perfect 38.2% retracement of the move up from 1720-1730 and the lingering has allowed the short term fractals to re-energize which is necessary before the next move. The charts may need one more day of "lingering/consolidating" before they are ready (and they can always take a few more). A bigger retracement of a bigger portion of the ascent is still possible of course, down to $1725-1730 or as low as $1700-1705 without damaging the bullish scenario.
People have turned bearish on stocks after the last drop but it was just a 38.2% retracement of the move since the Fed announcement, so we do not have evidence that the picture has changed. Stocks are ready for more upside, but the consolidation may last a few more days.
Gold took the dip to $1740 this morning because time was up. $1740 qualifies for a completed 4 pt parallel channel on the C leg of this 9 day ABC. But it doesn't fulfill a price objective of that H&S or $35 wide rectangle breakdown that's now in play. For now I'd give the priority to the C leg. 4 hr macd hit 31 which is about the level that it hit at the $1588 mid-August low. But August also reached 50 on the daily rsi. Today so far still up at 63. 1 hr macd down reached 22 which is often the bounce level. $1752-$1755 now in play as resistance. A bounce back near that neckline might occur shortly. Volume on the bounce off $1740 has been weak so far. The drop to $1740 also retested the Fed's QE3 statement breakout area. Oil ($89), Euro (low 1.28's), and Dollar index (.80) all touching first price projection areas where a turn is quite possible.
Left the dusty trail again on this morning's bounce. 14% in 24 hrs is good enough. Looks like it could rally a lot more. But I've seen this snake turn on a dime too many times and evaporate profits just as quick. With $1740 being my first tier target I'll regroup and wait for another entry level in junior miners or Nugt this week. Today could have been the low if this was a simple double zig-zag ABC. But if this C wave ends up being 5 legs instead of 3, then the $1720-$1730 target can be hit as well. October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. A lot can still go on Thursday and then end of quarter squaring day on Friday. GDX and SPY have just touched the 20 dma. If those get penetrated, things could fall much futher. GDX failed to accept hit during last week's OE. It was a pretty good bet it would then take the hit this week during gold's OE week. GSR just popped its head above the 20 dma for the first time in a while as well. Gap up at 53.5-54.5 is inviting. But today gold and silver dropped about the same amount, therefore still at 52. 2yr TNote auction solid at $35B tendered with 3.6 bid to cover. 5 yr up today with 7 yrs on Thursday. Those keep the headwinds flowing until Thursday.
<< <i>October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. >>
Most traders (including myself) trade the December contract and have been for the past few months. October contract expiration shouldn't be much of deal as I suspect open contracts and volume are very light.
<< <i>October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. >>
Most traders (including myself) trade the December contract and have been for the past few months. October contract expiration shouldn't be much of deal as I suspect open contracts and volume are very light. >>
That could well be. There was plenty of contract volume shortly after the Comex open today, peaking at 8:26 am. It came from somewhere. Regardless of the contract status, the timing of OE, TBond/TNote auctions, and end of month/quarter squaring all play a strong role. The commercials have tacked on additional 106,000 net short contracts over the past 6 weeks. They sold a bunch of those this morning, pretty much on schedule for an end of month week. Yesterday gold broke below the 3 week uptrend line and retested the bottom of it one last time at $1775. It was not a good sign along with a negative daily macd cross. Tempted to jump back on the nugget wagon as so far this looks more like a panic induced bounce off the 20 dma. But GDX gap at 48 and GDXJ at 22 give me pause. Nugt gapped down under the 3 wk uptrend line. Next trend line support is around 14 (GDX 50). Those like me figuring on a sure-fire OE dusty ride last week were disappointed. But it only made a ride this week more likely. There was no way in my mind that could be held off through gold's end of month OE week as well. Commercials probably figured the same. The juice to get closer to $1800 seemed to expire on that B wave corrective bounce to $1790. Today, gold is now supported at the 6 week uptrend line.
Crude is now below $90. It's hard to know whether it's in response to a faltering economy or manipulation prior to the election. Either way, I would not expect gold to decouple from crude for very long, if at all.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Crude is now below $90. It's hard to know whether it's in response to a faltering economy or manipulation prior to the election. Either way, I would not expect gold to decouple from crude for very long, if at all. >>
Guess there's no chance it's due to simple supply and demand?
Comments
<< <i>"How could these people possibly be expected/required to have access to a computer and/or a bank account to get their benefits and make common transactions?"
We give them one. We will give them a computer with an ISP, just like we give them a "free" phone with air time. It's easy, we get an internet tax just like the Universal Service Charge on your phone bill but it might be called a Universal ISP charge...just a few buks for you next new Internet Access Charge that is automatically deducted from your Internet Service Account. No problem... >>
Then let's give out ID's so everyone can show them before they vote... Just sayin...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GLD up 13%
GLDX up 29%
GDX up 30%
SLV up 30%
GDXJ up 35%
SIL up 42%
UGLD up 44%
AGQ up 68%
NUGT up 111%
USLV up 113%
Not quite to infinity, but getting there.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I bought DUST at end of day for a quickie trade. >>
A tough thing to own. I picked up some 2 days ago figuring on no QE announcement. Set a tight sell stop today and saw it execute at 12:30-12:31. My mistake was not immediately
buying into NUGT as soon as the first 5 seconds of the CNBC announcement came over the air. Could have bought it on the first pull back to $1735 as well. Didn't think that one
through too well. Now have to wait until the next pull back between the 18th-26th as we get back to back OE weeks for gold stocks/gold. That will be a convenient spot to stop the
train by $1800 and correct off some of the +$275 gain. If this is a new paradigm then miners won't get manhandled. But odds strongly favor it. I'll be dusting off the DUST early
next week. Euro ran into the 1.300 line. Dollar is down at the bottom of the 16 month trend channel. It it busts through there, all heck will break loose. I think it's gone far enough
ready. GDX could run to 58 by Monday/Tuesday before meeting stout resistance again. Last week it broke above the 2 yr downtrend line. GSR touched key support at the 50 line today.
It's next big gap lower is at 45-46. But it has left a number of gaps in its recent wake all the way up to 57.
All those 3-4 yr cup w/handle formations in the grains that were "laughable" only 3-9 months ago are now basically complete (ie corn). Wonder were they go to from here?
<< <i>
<< <i>As for qualifying for credit cards, in California, many benefits are distributed via debit card. The state issues the cards out and the credits. Many with the state issued card don't have a bank account, or another credit card.
>>
Aside from gov. handout debit cards, to conduct any financial transactions in a cashless economy, bank accounts will be required to process all other receipts and payments. Might even see a First National Bank for the Homeless and Transient. The unfortunate veteran on the corner with the cardboard sign will need to be able to process electronic donations. >>
>>
That would be something to see. A homeless vet witha Square card reads and an iPhone!!!
I can see a political cartoon in my head...
<< <i>The dark side of all electronic money has been outlined in dystopian fiction over and over. A totalitarian state tracks all money, and requires imbedded chips for anyone to conduct business or hold a job. All travel, all activities are tracked and monitored. Any person on the enemies of state list gets their chip deactivated, or is told that their chip needs repair. In the novel 1984, repair means torture and brainwashing, for those that don't love Big Brother.
For those that think it is all that far off, really tough economic times (eg: mass starvation) almost always means radical social changes. There are already proposals to track every motor vehicle 24/7 so as to tax mileage instead of gasoline consumption. The U.S. government recently made a list of cell phones that no longer work, on the premise that these are stolen phones. In other countries, public cameras are on every street corner in the major cities. In the U.S. it has been reported that people that visit certain websites will have their computer activity and smart phone activity constantly monitored, within hours of that person visiting certain websites.
I see it as a near certainty that will be totalitarian abuse of power with all electronic money. Privacy will be a thing of the past, and impossible to get back. For the ruling class, control or the illusion of control will be greater than ever. Just hope that you or your friends or relatives don't end up on the enemies list and have their chip called in for repair, or if they upset Big Brother enough, the chip gets turned off and that person can no longer buy or sell, or hold a job. If there is an open revolt, it might be worse than that. >>
I gotta get another gun.
<< <i>I gotta get another gun. >>
Have plenty of protection, I gotta get another identity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I bought DUST at end of day for a quickie trade. >>
Just a suggestion, and you and others may already do it: Always check the Weekly and Monthly before trading the daily.
<< <i>
<< <i>I bought DUST at end of day for a quickie trade. >>
Just a suggestion, and you and others may already do it: Always check the Weekly and Monthly before trading the daily. >>
The daily whipsaws around the weekly and monthly trends. While the longer term trend is important, esp. to longer term holders, I pay more
attention to gaps, planned trading/economic events, and counter reactions to massive daily moves. That said, I thought the odds were decent that
miners would jump up again today as more people piled in. That sent DUST spiraling down again. This morning may have been a more optimum time to buy it as it sets
a new all time daily RSI low (Nugt rsi at 81). Miner OE week influences usually start to influence around Mon-Tuesday. If they stay flat today and first part of Monday,
a 2-3 day DUST trade could work out ok. If gold moves down with miners mid-next week it will be an even better trade as the week after next is end of month
gold OE week/TNote auctions. A good 2-3 day trade could extend into 4-6 days. But another blockbuster news event next week could erase any negativity from OE.
The gap down at the open today gives the potential for DUST to fall into the 21's. That potential will probably be there through Monday unless things reverse sooner.
Dollar ran down to its last gap level of 78.6. Daily RSI of 19 is much lower than the 22 seen back in May 2011 when it reached 73. Neg divergence? But at 19 the RSI
is massively oversold. Still, momentum on the weekly and monthly charts is still pointing sharply down. A conundrum. It's not going to zero.
QE3 was apparently not even close to fully priced into the market. It would seem that 14,000 Dow may be the target near the all time "unadjusted for inflation/deflation" high.
I can't get involved with weekly charts when my holding period is measured in hours.
Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262).
Looks like the book store is jammed into a 1 yr contracting wedge. Breakout time, or breakdown?
Riding the dusty trail with you.
ProofCollection in July trading thread July 27:
It's too early to be 100% sure but with the solid weekly close this looks like it is THE BREAKOUT most of us have been waiting for.
I'm glad I climbed onto this move at that point, my account has tripled so far and this is just the beginning.
Also a nice move by silver poking its head above $35 briefly.
<< <i>The move is looking great. Gold did a nice 38.2% retracement of the last move up and is now ready for the next move which should take us up to $1800 over the next few days. A move to just under $1790 is realistic by the end of Wednesday. Also a nice move by silver poking its head above $35 briefly. >>
I don't expect gold to peak per the McC Oscillator on the 24th as that's too close to gold's OE day on the 25th. Makes more sense for me if it peaks towards end of this week or Monday.
Today's bounce in gold to $1773 and silver to $35+ seemed to be corrective B wave bounces imo. Which means a C leg down deeper for this correction is still out there. I know that makes sense for miners whose options expire Friday. They are already past the usual time (ie Tuesday) when they begin to take hits. The last 3 corrective legs all lasted several days
longer than this one has currently put in. I was figuring the correction would last into Wed/Thursday. But gold's quite drop to $1752 this week could have been enough. Still, it's odd
that the miners have not corrected more. They almost never stay flat during an OE week. If gold should rise to $1780-$1800 it will take miners with them, regardless of OE. Should miners skip their "normal" 2-5 day OE hit it will be the first time I can recall it happening in a year or more. Should they continue to stay flat or rise somewhat, they then have to get
through gold's OE week and a set of TBond auctions as well. Next week is also end of month, end of quarter squaring. Have to think fund managers will want to be booking profits to
tidy up their books.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hint--- the bookstore is about to close (262).
Looks like the book store is jammed into a 1 yr contracting wedge. Breakout time, or breakdown?
Riding the dusty trail with you. >>
Im afraid Roadrunner that my thought of miners outperforming metals is being realized--just 6 months later than I thought. If there is a real breakdown in Treasuries, that money will go to equities and PMs. The ultimate play would be to get the best of both worlds, ie.-buy the miners.
Watching the close today for a possible chance to double-up and try to salvage a bad trade. RSI on XAU is the highest its been in a decade. Clearly overbought, but that strength must be respected. Pullbacks may be only brief and shallow.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. >>
And risky assets including PMs less attractive, as carrying costs increase exponentially.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. >>
And risky assets including PMs less attractive, as carrying costs increase exponentially. >>
Wouldn't a breakdown in T's further expose the weakness of the dollar and the economic policy behind it? I would think this would make hard assets more attractive.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>So silver and platinum are the real stars of the past 4 weeks, but my focus is on gold for trading. The last time QE was announced I believe gold took off for several strong weeks. This pattern here looks STRONG. McLellan's not expecting any kind of a top until Sept 24, and correctly called the low on the 7th. Today took us to the bottom of the channel formation on my chart. I don't think an unreasonable near term goal is the middle trendline that I have, which would take us to the mid $1900's. The timing on the near term move will probably take us to the election, at which point there will probably be a pretty good retracement before another move into June next year. This is eerily like other years where gold started falling apart in November/December after a huge move and recovered in Jan.
ProofCollection in July trading thread July 27:
It's too early to be 100% sure but with the solid weekly close this looks like it is THE BREAKOUT most of us have been waiting for.
I'm glad I climbed onto this move at that point, my account has tripled so far and this is just the beginning.
PC, each time gold has broken one of those uptrend lines it has failed to get back above it. Why do you think this time is different?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>A serious breakdown in T's will make TBT attractive. >>
And risky assets including PMs less attractive, as carrying costs increase exponentially. >>
Wouldn't a breakdown in T's further expose the weakness of the dollar and the economic policy behind it? I would think this would make hard assets more attractive. >>
It is my contention that asset prices are being fueled by cheap money. As that money gets more expensive the return on investment declines thus making highly leveraged based assets, like PMs, less a "sure thing". This doesnt mean the bull market for PMs will end, but would render them more risky.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>PC, each time gold has broken one of those uptrend lines it has failed to get back above it. Why do you think this time is different? >>
Because the consolidation is over, and many other indications that a much bigger move is underway. You'll see.
<< <i>I'm afraid Roadrunner that my thought of miners outperforming metals is being realized--just 6 months later than I thought. If there is a real breakdown in Treasuries, that money will go to equities and PMs. The ultimate play would be to get the best of both worlds, ie.-buy the miners.
Watching the close today for a possible chance to double-up and try to salvage a bad trade. RSI on XAU is the highest its been in a decade. Clearly overbought, but that strength must be respected. Pullbacks may be only brief and shallow. >>
Got off the dusty trail this morning as this week's typical OE hit was not happening. It will probably happen during gold's OE, possibly as soon as Friday and nlt Tuesday. Gold has to get on the stick to make that last move to $1800. By Friday I think end of month OE effects will take hold. In that environment best I can see gold doing is staying even through next Wed/Thursday. That's also an end of quarter OE as well as a bond auction week. The short to long commercial gold futures ratio is up to 2.65 with comms adding around +95K net short contracts over the past 5 weeks. Like clockwork they have added 10K to 30K net shorts each and every week. I just can't see them not taking advantage of next week's set up. GLD and SLV options expire on Friday. That could get the ball rolling. Gold has to get out of this $1765-$1775 range to make things happen. The 8 hr macd diff is now negative. Macd and Rsi have broken below the 6 week uptrend line on that dip into the $1750's. The bounce to $1778 retested that breakdown. Right now it looks like the die is cast to initiate a correction. With oil getting hit hard and commods in general (GSG down), it's hard to fathom how gold, silver, and miners are still hanging up there. The large drop in oil price has apparently been bullish for the miners. Though in the past I've rarely seen that work in just 1-2 days. But their mining expenses do drop considerably on cheaper energy, supplies, and commodities.
USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners.
"Clearly it is a waste of time reading financial statements. These statements are now irrelevant."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It is my contention that asset prices are being fueled by cheap money. As that money gets more expensive the return on investment declines thus making highly leveraged based assets, like PMs, less a "sure thing". This doesnt mean the bull market for PMs will end, but would render them more risky. >>
I agree with your assessment, but can't think of a scenario, other than inflation or a change in the FEDs direction, where the funny money would get more expensive. FED has promised ZIRP and open ended new money. Short of their reversing their "policy" and short of inflation what other causes would make money more expensive?
Additionally, In the current economic environment that has brought us the inside job on the dollar, inflation might even become a catalyst for the PM fire.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We need to start praying for inflation. $10s of Trillions spent globally over the last 4 years and still no inflation here or in Europe. Or if you contend we have inflation, did we get our money's worth?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Well, we have to be afraid of what we dont know--thats your unknown scenerio. We dont know what we dont know.
We need to start praying for inflation. $10s of Trillions spent globally over the last 4 years and still no inflation here or in Europe. Or if you contend we have inflation, did we get our money's worth? >>
By definition we have inflation - the money supply has been increased. Haven't got our money's worth because the money is not getting to "us." ECRI (which is a much better predictor of recessions than the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER) believes that the US re-entered a recession in June. ISM (a measure of manufacturing in the US) shows Prices Paid is up to 54, up from a reading of just 39 in July. I'd say stagflation is taking root.
Subsequent price inflation is select (food primarily) but will be greatly ramped up once the FED realizes they are going to have to force the new money onto Main Street to actually stimulate employment. As we know most of it is going into FED reserve deposits and into equity and commodity speculation. How they force it to trickle down and how they control the flow will be interesting. QE Extreme Unlimited may just have that objective. It's obvious the FED fears deflation more than it does inflation - let's hope they can keep their eyes on the inflation ball when they do open the Main St. spigot.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Wanna see the WHOLE picture? Or just the part that some nucklehead newletter writer wants you to believe?
Prices paid Index over the last year
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners. >>
I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74. >>
I would agree. But probably not before the dollar finds it way back to 80-82 first. Got 79.77 today.
The COT commercials made a monstrous dump of their dollar future shorts last 2 weeks. They unloaded 75% of their total short contracts and 86% of their net short position,
an incredible one week shift. The short to long ratio dropped from 3.6 to 1.76 to 1. Recall that they pushed this short to long ratio up to the 10-14 range in the early part of this year.
Basically, they are almost back to even. They made some money on the drop of the past few weeks. They even dumped a large portion of their longs. So for now they're basically
out of the dollar. Last week commercials had 62K total contracts and this week <20K. It would appear they are looking for more certain money elsewhere now. If the dollar index
had a date with 74 any time in the next several weeks (or months?) the commercials would have stayed loaded.
Transports probably test key support tomorrow in wake of FDX weak guidance. Dow Theorists are on alert.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>USDollar filled its small gap at 79.26 and has since retreated again. But I think the current bottom at 78.6 will hold on retest and the dollar put a stronger move on to 80. This would set up with next week's events. Cando and Aussie have pulled back some which should be bearish for miners. >>
I believe the dollar index will find its way to 74. >>
What the FED wants the FED gets - more competitive exports with a lower dollar index.. Don't fight the FED. Unfortunately other countries want the same thing - look for a race to the bottom.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
weakish volume and could be setting up for the C leg completion. A parallel channel formed between the recent $1787 and $1775 highs projects down to $1730 later this week.
OE week still has more to go as well as 2 more TNote auctions. Gold's (and miner's) strength allowed them to fend off the OE's for several extra days. But it looks like they've
been worn down with both gold and silver now showing daily macd crosses for the first time since the rally began 6 weeks ago. Best the metals can probably do is to hang tough
right here ($1755/$33.50) for the next couple of days. Dollar did a quick dip this morning to 79.35 to fill the remainder of Sunday night's opening gap. Commercials have added
on +106,000 net short Comex gold contracts over the past 6 weeks. If they are going to get a return on those, this end of quarter week sets up the best. Back on the dusty trail
as of this morning following the price gap down.
Gold's 200 week moving average is at $1327. I didn't even come close to hitting the 200 wk ma during the October 2008 bottom. Don't really see the 200 week ma as something
to be reached again until the gold bull market is history. That's anywhere from 1-5 yrs away as I see it. But the 20 and 50 week moving averages are a different story.
Link
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
RTH
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>These extended charts patterns like the one here on RTH are obviously coming in toward their moving averages...not a bad thing. >>
Until you are down 20% and realize the trend has changed. Then comes the apathetic stage---the most deadly of all.
GDXJ-----Lets see how this pans out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Gold has sort of lingered for 7 days rather than really consolidating. >>
That's what a consolidation can look like. We've had a perfect 38.2% retracement of the move up from 1720-1730 and the lingering has allowed the short term fractals to re-energize which is necessary before the next move. The charts may need one more day of "lingering/consolidating" before they are ready (and they can always take a few more). A bigger retracement of a bigger portion of the ascent is still possible of course, down to $1725-1730 or as low as $1700-1705 without damaging the bullish scenario.
People have turned bearish on stocks after the last drop but it was just a 38.2% retracement of the move since the Fed announcement, so we do not have evidence that the picture has changed. Stocks are ready for more upside, but the consolidation may last a few more days.
Left the dusty trail again on this morning's bounce. 14% in 24 hrs is good enough. Looks like it could rally a lot more. But I've seen this snake turn on a dime too many times and evaporate profits just as quick. With $1740 being my first tier target I'll regroup and wait for another entry level in junior miners or Nugt this week. Today could have been the low if this was a simple double zig-zag ABC. But if this C wave ends up being 5 legs instead of 3, then the $1720-$1730 target can be hit as well. October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. A lot can still go on Thursday and then end of quarter squaring day on Friday. GDX and SPY have just touched the 20 dma. If those get penetrated, things could fall much futher. GDX failed to accept hit during last week's OE. It was a pretty good bet it would then take the hit this week during gold's OE week. GSR just popped its head above the 20 dma for the first time in a while as well. Gap up at 53.5-54.5 is inviting. But today gold and silver dropped about the same amount, therefore still at 52. 2yr TNote auction solid at $35B tendered with 3.6 bid to cover. 5 yr up today with 7 yrs on Thursday. Those keep the headwinds flowing until Thursday.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. >>
Most traders (including myself) trade the December contract and have been for the past few months. October contract expiration shouldn't be much of deal as I suspect open contracts and volume are very light.
<< <i>
<< <i>October CME gold futures expiration is listed as tommorow. >>
Most traders (including myself) trade the December contract and have been for the past few months. October contract expiration shouldn't be much of deal as I suspect open contracts and volume are very light. >>
That could well be. There was plenty of contract volume shortly after the Comex open today, peaking at 8:26 am. It came from somewhere. Regardless of the contract status, the
timing of OE, TBond/TNote auctions, and end of month/quarter squaring all play a strong role. The commercials have tacked on additional 106,000 net short contracts over the past
6 weeks. They sold a bunch of those this morning, pretty much on schedule for an end of month week. Yesterday gold broke below the 3 week uptrend line and retested the
bottom of it one last time at $1775. It was not a good sign along with a negative daily macd cross. Tempted to jump back on the nugget wagon as so far this looks more like a
panic induced bounce off the 20 dma. But GDX gap at 48 and GDXJ at 22 give me pause. Nugt gapped down under the 3 wk uptrend line. Next trend line support is around 14 (GDX 50).
Those like me figuring on a sure-fire OE dusty ride last week were disappointed. But it only made a ride this week more likely. There was no way in my mind that could be held off
through gold's end of month OE week as well. Commercials probably figured the same. The juice to get closer to $1800 seemed to expire on that B wave corrective bounce to $1790.
Today, gold is now supported at the 6 week uptrend line.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Crude is now below $90. It's hard to know whether it's in response to a faltering economy or manipulation prior to the election. Either way, I would not expect gold to decouple from crude for very long, if at all. >>
Guess there's no chance it's due to simple supply and demand?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry